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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

WilliamInPhx

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 21, 2017
88
488
Phoenix
So… after all these dumpster fires of earnings calls… where does all these investor money from Meta and Amazon (and Twitter) go in the coming weeks?

View attachment 868168
Mostly it just goes *poof* and disappears, of course. The $ amount actually moved from one investor to another as a result of trades at the lower share prices is trivial compared to the $ amount of lost “$ value” of shares held, especially if you exclude automated daytrading and look at net changes in positions that would leave $ in cash to be invested in anything…
 
That's pretty demeaning to the entire field of business/finance. Managing cash flow, making decisions based on risk-adjusted evaluations of project success (with financial opportunity cost weighed), and understanding business elements to navigating competition (i.e. pricing, convenience, emotional sentiment) is very important. While I disagree with a lot of what Gary's said, he has been right over TMCers several times in the past, and you're painting way too broad a brush stroke that's dangerously hyperbolic.
Serious question with a slight bit of snark. Are you an MBA @Xepa777 ?
 

WilliamInPhx

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 21, 2017
88
488
Phoenix
I owe this forum a thank you for making me look at my AMZN holding. I sold it a couple of days ago at 118 (Still a nice appreciation from when I bought it).
I know discussions of other stocks is sometimes frowned-upon here, but I find there are often a great many tie-ins, sometimes from as simple as “this will affect macros which will affect TSLA” and sometimes a “this is causing issues or being looked at closely on another company, it might be useful to think about how this is done (or not done) at Tesla”. The connection doesn’t even need to be called out directly in the post - most of us are able to consider the connections ourselves. I often find the discussions on f other mega-caps, other companies in adjacent fields, etc to be useful discussion here.
 
Guidance is a target which is to be met or come close to, and analysts estimates are meant to be close to actual earnings. This is astounding, if continued guidance for amazon is just 8% while tesla is near 50%, since last time i checked 50% growth is about 6x of 8%.

8% growth in a 8% inflation environment is actually 0% growth.
 
Gary Black had an interview with Tom Nash a few days ago:

As we know, TSLA has a disproportionately low percentage of institutional holders vs retail holders.

Ignoring your opinions on Gary (I’m actually warming up to him a little bit as someone who can provide the “insight of Wall St”), Gary believes one of the key reasons the big institutions are hesitant to invest more in TSLA is key man risk.

We’ve all discussed this before. My personal belief is that Elon was essential in the early years to get production up and to establish the culture of the company.

He’s obviously still an important part of Tesla, but I am of the opinion that the company would do fine without him, because he’s instilled the necessary culture and frugality needed to succeed.

Having said that, we all want our TSLA investment to grow. I think it would be good for Elon to clearly and publicly appoint a successor, and to let that successor take the reigns a bit at Tesla to help institutions feel more comfortable with investing in TSLA.

Now would be a good time, as Elon could spend some time at Twitter, letting his #2 take the lead (at least publicly) for what is sure to be an “epic” quarter.

Thoughts?
 
As of today, the EU is one step closer to ban new combustion cars by 2035:

In my opinion, this is important, as this communicates to the industry, to the banks, to the public and to governments that combustion cars will be replaced by electric cars and that any investment in a soon to be obsolete technology is at risk.

Further, as the green line in the graph below indicates, the existing emission targets are sharpened starting 2026 (source of image). Since the potential efficency gains for gas cars are limited, soon later it might be almost impossible to meet the emission targets with gas cars, which will be costly. It may still be possible to optimize/cheat the efficiency ratings with hybrinds, I don‘t know honestly. Nevertheless, I expect that many existing car models will disappear from the European market end of this decade.
1666905150086.png


The EU has a long term demand for about 14 million cars per year (Source). I guess that the demand for electric vehicles in the EU will be about 10 million cars in 2030.

There is also a similar legislation for vans. Further, being Swiss, I expect that Switzerland will largely adopt the EU legislation, possibly with a slighly more „economy friendly“ Swiss finish.
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
4,771
26,308
Kennewick, WA
Serious question with a slight bit of snark. Are you an MBA @Xepa777 ?
I have an MBA, with a BA in Accounting and I agree for the most part with @Xepa777 on this. However, it's been my experience that the biggest disconnect is not between the Accounting/Finance folks and Engineering, but between Marketing/Advertising and Engineering. In the mind of many engineers, if you build it, they will come. And in some cases that's true but after you build it, they have to know about it before they will come. Tesla has done a remarkable job with marketing and publicity as opposed to paid advertising, but not every company and especially startups can do that.

So let the engineers build it and let the business professionals choose the best way to make them come (err, buy the product).
 
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I find it odd that we collectively rely on Tesla delivery estimates yet here we are with October still being listed as the delivery window for US. I find that a rather unlikely estimate.
Depends greatly on what you order and where you live for logistics purposes. Model 3 goes out to Dec. Model Y goes out as far as April.
 
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Ogre

On The Clown Car
Sep 6, 2021
3,864
28,090
Oregon
Franz von Holzhausen brought the CyberTruck to the ArtCenter College of Design in Pasadena, CA. Tesla's CyberTruck is definitely the main attraction at this year's event. Though there were other notable EVs present.

As we get closer and closer to launch, I get more anxious about wanting to see it in person. Unfortunately that’s a bit too much of a drive from Oregon. If they had a gig up here in Portland I’d be all over it.
 

FSDtester#1

Craves Electrolytes
Oct 8, 2021
983
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Time Masheen
On top of this, AWS, which basically funds the rest of the money-burning enterprise, is soon going to be spending loads of CAPEX on it’s Starlink clone Kuiper… only they are going to be using expendable rockets with 5-10x the per kg cost SpaceX pays!!

Hell, Amazon just recently lit a *billion dollars* on fire with it’s Lord of the Rings show, which was one of the worst TV shows I’ve ever seen…
Hey, let's go easy on Amazon... they are the only company to air the Buccaneers game tonight. Without them I wouldn't be able to see my Bucs lose again
 

FSDtester#1

Craves Electrolytes
Oct 8, 2021
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Totally agree on this! Tesla's cars are the best on the road. They sell themselves. There's no need to pretend that they're going to be truly self-driving any time soon, or that a car purchased today will ever become a robotaxi.

I actually came here, though, to kvetch about the price of TSLA, down to freaking HALF of what it was. Sure wish I'd sold at $1,200 ($400 equivalent after the latest split). I wonder how much of this drop is because of Musk's psychotic shenanigans over the off-again-on-again offer/promise to by the train wreck that is Twitter. The whole market is down, but the S&P 500 is down by about a third, while Tesla is down by half!
There are these new things investors, I mean day traders can use. They are called
Stop losses. Check with your broker at E trade. Maybe they can hook you up with some more ways to bet. Have fun at the casino!
 

M|S|M MYP

Active Member
Supporting Member
Feb 20, 2018
4,421
45,010
USA
There are these new things investors, I mean day traders can use. They are called
Stop losses. Check with your broker at E trade. Maybe they can hook you up with some more ways to bet. Have fun at the casino!
He sounds more like a "Trade from my laptop from Wendy's on RobinHood" kinda guy...JMHO of course :)
 
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WilliamInPhx

Member
Supporting Member
Dec 21, 2017
88
488
Phoenix
Serious question with a slight bit of snark. Are you an MBA @Xepa777 ?
I have an MBA (one of several degrees) - and FWIW I think I agree with Xepa in that I believe they were saying that the generalization being made about the “entire field of business/finance” was demeaning. Every field will run the gamut, with both good and bad extremes of competence, etc. No need to paint entire fields with one brush (not all auto manufacturers are the same, right? :) ).
 
Gary Black had an interview with Tom Nash a few days ago:

As we know, TSLA has a disproportionately low percentage of institutional holders vs retail holders.

Ignoring your opinions on Gary (I’m actually warming up to him a little bit as someone who can provide the “insight of Wall St”), Gary believes one of the key reasons the big institutions are hesitant to invest more in TSLA is key man risk.

We’ve all discussed this before. My personal belief is that Elon was essential in the early years to get production up and to establish the culture of the company.

He’s obviously still an important part of Tesla, but I am of the opinion that the company would do fine without him, because he’s instilled the necessary culture and frugality needed to succeed.

Having said that, we all want our TSLA investment to grow. I think it would be good for Elon to clearly and publicly appoint a successor, and to let that successor take the reigns a bit at Tesla to help institutions feel more comfortable with investing in TSLA.

Now would be a good time, as Elon could spend some time at Twitter, letting his #2 take the lead (at least publicly) for what is sure to be an “epic” quarter.

Thoughts?

I understood the key-man risk before we became cash flow positive, but now we have so much cash we can do BUYBACKS. And our product roadmap is criticized for being "too futuristic" with FSD and bots, so there's plenty in the pipeline. Also...our CEO basically runs like 3 major companies, so it's not like 100% of his time is on Tesla right now. The key man risk argument should be dead honestly.

Honestly almost all the risks are de-risked to some extent.

FSD never happens? Tesla survives.
Elon Musk dies? Tesla survives.
Meteor hits Fremont? Tesla survives.
China goes full-hostile and takes over Tesla's factory? Was a big concern for awhile, but now pretty sure Tesla survives.

It would literally have to take either (a) nuclear war or (b) some accounting scandal of historic proportions to take Tesla down.
 

FSDtester#1

Craves Electrolytes
Oct 8, 2021
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Time Masheen
I understood the key-man risk before we became cash flow positive, but now we have so much cash we can do BUYBACKS. And our product roadmap is criticized for being "too futuristic" with FSD and bots, so there's plenty in the pipeline. Also...our CEO basically runs like 3 major companies, so it's not like 100% of his time is on Tesla right now. The key man risk argument should be dead honestly.

Honestly almost all the risks are de-risked to some extent.

FSD never happens? Tesla survives.
Elon Musk dies? Tesla survives.
Meteor hits Fremont? Tesla survives.
China goes full-hostile and takes over Tesla's factory? Was a big concern for awhile, but now pretty sure Tesla survives.

It would literally have to take either (a) nuclear war or (b) some accounting scandal of historic proportions to take Tesla down.
Or Reuters and their well timed, nonsense, go nowhere hit pieces 🙄
 

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