Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[betstarship]

Letttssss gooooo

 

[Dutchie]

The criminal investigation on Tesla is on short loop up here in Canada, and on the scrolling headlines on the bottom of the screen. It’s probably good to get this behind us now. FSD is probably a decade away from a robotaxi level and even a step up to level 3 is probably years away. Swallow the pill, take the stock hit, give it a name change and cut the price of the FSD sweet to a third of what is. Build it back up over the next decade as the technology improves. It gets incrementally better every time but is obviously no where close to being any kind of a “Full self drive” system.

All jmho of course.

When people shout out that things like “Robotaxi is a decade away” it makes me wonder. Do they know how long a decade is in Elon time? Where was Tesla a decade ago compared to now? What is SpaceX doing now, compared to a decade ago? !0 years is a loooooong time...

 

[Skryll]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585790671532589056

Doesnt seem like a decade away to me

In north California east bay it sure does, at least in a 2018 RWD lr m3

 

[Singuy]

In north California east bay it sure does, at least in a 2018 RWD lr m3

This guy seems to be located in NY. Not sure if it's the city...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Tesla Elon has done a remarkable job with marketing and publicity as opposed to paid advertising, but not every company and especially startups can do that.

FTFY. I get so annoyed at people who criticize Elon for being too "un-CEO-like". They completely miss the genius of being so. Elon the geeky showman has saved his companies billions of $$ through free PR. Considering he's a geeky engineer and being an extrovert isn't a normal thing for such a person to be, it makes it all the more remarkable.

 

[The Accountant]

Revenue:
Google Q3 2021 $65.1B, Q3 2022 $69.1B, increase YOY 6%, P/E 17
Apple Q3 2021 $83.4B, Q3 2022 $90.1B, increase YOY 8%, P/E 24
Amazon, Q3 2021 $110.8B, Q3 2022 $127.1B, increase YOY 15%, P/E 99
Tesla, Q3 2021 $13.8B, Q3 2022 $21.5B, increase YOY 56%, P/E 77

Tesla is growing revenue 9.4X faster than Google, 7.0X faster than Apple and 3.7X faster than Amazon,
yet Tesla's P/E is only 4.5X that of Google and 3.2X that of Apple, while Amazon's P/E is 29% higher than that of Tesla.
Google, Apple and Amazon are mature companies that have limited growth upside potential.
Tesla still has its best growth years ahead of it, for many years to come.
Tesla needs a higher P/E. Plain and simple.

EDIT: Tesla is starting from a smaller $ base, but still very impressive growth. Q4 2022 results will continue to accelerate while FAANG growth will continue to slow.

I had to graph this.

 

[Zero CO2]

SO TWTR overhang is over ... so now the Twitter hangover begins .... we will see next week if closing Twitter deal has any real impact on TSLA

I know many folks here think so ... I think we need the Fed Pivot for real

 

[elasalle]

I had to graph this.

View attachment 868271

Cramer will cry

 

[MC3OZ]

Well fund managers Gary is talking about needs to practice more risk management because they have clients to answer to who doesn't know a lick about Tesla or any business they have investments in. All they see is "okay so in this Q half of my money is gone...why?". This is why they like to avoid companies with potential black swan events tied to the well being of one person.

Fund mangers typically have a wide spread of investments, if this risk concerns them, then limit their exposure to Tesla to 5%.

So if Tesla drops by 50% individual investors only lose 2.5% on the Tesla stake, and the real position depends on how well the fund overall is going.

So are fund managers currently at 0% or 10%?

Any that are currently less than 5% might be ignoring good buying opportunities.

If the some funds are holding a large percentage of oil stocks well north of 5%, while holding 0% in Tesla, we will see how that plays out,

If funds are holding GM, Toyota or Honda, we will see how that plays out.

 

[wipster]

FTFY. I get so annoyed at people who criticize Elon for being too "un-CEO-like". They completely miss the genius of being so. Elon the geeky showman has saved his companies billions of $$ through free PR. Considering he's a geeky engineer and being an extrovert isn't a normal thing for such a person to be, it makes it all the more remarkable.

Agree completely. Another thing that costs nothing but is worth huge amounts is getting a really good review from a respected pblication and/or reviewer. Motor Trend's choice of the Model S as their 2013 Car of the Year was a true home run as it showed the S was truly a great automobile that happened to be electric. Really opened people's eyes as Motor Trend had previously been meant for gas powered vehicles only.

And it didn't cost Tesla a dime (or very few dimes).

 

[Discoducky]

I had to graph this.

View attachment 868271

And I'd imagine that projected/forecasted CAGR is as disjointed and then forward P/E as well.

When will Wall Street wake up?

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I wish I'd sold them when they were high.

I'm sure most of us do. Is this even worth stating? Are you thinking that TSLA will never exceed the ATH?

 

[MrMoo]

SO TWTR overhang is over ... so now the Twitter hangover begins .... we will see next week if closing Twitter deal has any real impact on TSLA

I know many folks here think so ... I think we need the Fed Pivot for real

It already has. I read some reports that some coders from Tesla have gone to Twitter to start working there to look over the code. It's only some labour costs and it's probably negligible but they add up over a long period of time. Plus I heard Teslas CEO is also working there too.

 

[RobDickinson]

We should dock the CEO some wages!

 

[Prunesquallor]

EDIT : CAUTION. THERE MAY BE A 3x SPLIT EFFECT HERE. Trying to find some clarity.

 

[wipster]

FTFY. I get so annoyed at people who criticize Elon for being too "un-CEO-like". They completely miss the genius of being so. Elon the geeky showman has saved his companies billions of $$ through free PR. Considering he's a geeky engineer and being an extrovert isn't a normal thing for such a person to be, it makes it all the more remarkable.

I doubt seriously if he is an extrovert. Pretty sure he is an introvert and it kills him having to be out in public, yet he knows as the public face of Tesla and SpaceX, he has to do it. And he does it well. Would love to see his Myers/Briggs score, I would bet that he is an ISTJ(P maybe). A lot of engineers are. Bear in mind that Intravert and Extravert in the M/B world aren't exactly what we normally think they are. It's not perfect, but it's a great tool to know how yourself and other people perceive the world.

Another great reason to watch The Elon Musk Show, especially now that all three episodes are available on YouTube. Really gives insights into the way he thinks without coming to any conclusions. In fact, I recommend that all the members of TMC watch the un-biased series. I think we all would come away with a greater appreciation of the man and what he's accomplished under extreme circumstances.

 

[wipster]

We should dock the CEO some wages!

He is salaried... kinda...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1585799209848029190

for those like me that didn't understand this, this list is supposed to represent new $TSLA 13F Fillings. Funds that are buying/bought TSLA.

 

[RobDickinson]

He is salaried... kinda...

AFIk eh doesnt draw a salary at all?

 

[Cosmacelf]

I doubt seriously if he is an extrovert. Pretty sure he is an introvert and it kills him having to be out in public, yet he knows as the public face of Tesla and SpaceX, he has to do it. And he does it well. Would love to see his Myers/Briggs score, I would bet that he is an ISTJ(P maybe). A lot of engineers are. Bear in mind that Intravert and Extravert in the M/B world aren't exactly what we normally think they are. It's not perfect, but it's a great tool to know how yourself and other people perceive the world.

Another great reason to watch The Elon Musk Show, especially now that all three episodes are available on YouTube. Really gives insights into the way he thinks without coming to any conclusions. In fact, I recommend that all the members of TMC watch the un-biased series. I think we all would come away with a greater appreciation of the man and what he's accomplished under extreme circumstances.

I worded it badly, I was saying that he wasn’t a natural extrovert. He acts like one , but he isn’t one naturally. It is a learned behavior.