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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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A poll that's two weeks old is as stale as bread left out that long. At least it feels like watching TSLA drop below 20% during that period, and for now is 15% lower while Nasdaq is up for that same period.
If public opinions of Elon can change substantially in two weeks despite nothing especially noteworthy occurring, then the opinions are very fickle and weakly held. If so, the opinions probably don’t have much effect of Tesla’s business and mission success.

Polls in general are pretty much eschewed by any self-respecting social scientist because polls have all kinds of problems and a Twitter poll is even worse. It’s sampling bias all the way down. A self-selected minority of the population is on Twitter in the first place, and the algorithm will profoundly affect who even sees the poll, and those who are on Twitter generally receive much more exposure to Elon Musk content due to him being the network’s most prominent power user (and now owner and interim CEO), and then we have no idea how many bots vs troll farms vs real humans replied, and we don’t have baseline comparisons with similar polls for other public figures.
 
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No, that's because of today's NY Times piece - they're pulling all the stops: Bullish! - Free for all, no paywall, guess why - the article starts with positive notes on how more people are now buying EV's (still with the back handed mix up " .. For now, Tesla, Ford Motor, Mercedes-Benz and other companies have focused on premium models that are more profitable. " ). But eventually bringing down the usual FUD

View attachment 874471

If you *really* want to read the NY Times piece, here's a puzzle for you
NY times do com /2022/11/13/business/electric-vehicles-buyers-mainstream.html
They'are speaking of ID4?
 
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I’m wondering how representative ebm-pabst are regarding the rest of the Tier 1s beginning to leave legacy auto behind. Does anyone know more on this?

The entire reason there is an automotive chips shortage is because legacy auto refuses or is unable to adopt newer process IC's. This is also related to their supplier's agility, since automakers depend for the most part on suppliers to write/update the code for the components they buy from them.

We'll see more of this, IMO.
 
The entire reason their is an automotive chips shortage is because legacy auto refuses or is unable to adopt newer process IC's. This is also related to their supplier's agility, since automakers depend for the most part on suppliers to write/update the code for the components they buy from them.

We'll see more of this, IMO.
ebm-pabst appears to sell mostly motorized cooling fans. I am not following how that relates to chips.
 
^^This. They find an edge case, then the query the fleet for information on this edge case.
<pedantic_mode>

They actually set triggers for events that meet certain conditions that cause the car to then forward data (video clips, control inputs, etc...) back to Tesla.

As the car doesn't maintain such data long term under normal conditions, it's not really "queryable" after the fact in the traditional sense...

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ebm-pabst appears to sell mostly motorized cooling fans. I am not following how that relates to chips.

Perhaps you think an automotive cooling fan isn't controlled by a chip? But that's irrelevant to the issue at hand, which is will more automotive suppliers choose to leave the industry. IMO the answer is yes, if the lagacy automakers aren't willing/able to modernize.

Did you know you can still buy a brand-new 1969 Z-28 Camaro? Yes, look up the Year-One catalog. But also guess how many they sell in a year.

It's EVs in the future. Suppliers know that, and will act accordingly.
 
FInal update, I have now reached my target of 80,000 shares.

I am not moving from here and plan will be start unloading (very gradually) once share price hits $1,000. Still feel confident we will see $3,000 at some point

Now I need to find a new hobby for the next few years!

But Uncle Leo is still buying them nuts ;)
congrats!!
 
Has there been any recent news on the semi? we are getting pretty close to the handover event for pepsi, it seems like we should be seeing these puppies zapping round a test tracks and getting filmed by drones by now...

I'm one of the investors who considers the start of semi production to be one of the biggest milestones in Tesla's history.
All the FUD in the world is useless once fleet managers look at a spreadsheet and calculate the savings from a Tesla semi vs any other truck.

I have this minor fear that they are still not inb serious production mode for this vehicle at all, and are doing the minimum to meet the pepsi contract. I'll feel super happy once customer #2 announces they have taken delivery.

Roll on Dec 1st.
 
Just remember one thing y'all...Mary is leading GM to making a profit on EV's in 2025, growing sales from 44,000 this year to 1M along the way :)


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Last time i checked, Tesla will sell about 1.3M vehicles in 2022, so not sure how GM will pass Tesla in EV sales in 2025 since Mary said they are 'aiming' for 1M. 🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔🤔
 
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At least he didn't argue that his share sales are hurting Tesla investors. Hopefully that rolls around his head for more than a second or two.
I don’t believe he’s unaware, people have been pretty vocal. His view would be that he has to do what he believes is most important even if he takes heat for it. He’s literally said that and made similar comments.

Some people here have claimed he ‘owns’ the board/‘is’ the board - so buyback incoming, eh?
 
If there is a serious recession (which Elon believes is probable) over the next 1-2 years...then Twitter had a good chance to go bankrupt leaving his 100M+ follower/subscriber account moot and gone.

In that scenario, Tesla would likely need to divert resources towards PR and Advertising or not because major publishers have poisoned the well Elon and all of his companies for a very long time. They'd have the upper hand, without social media (because FB doesn't focus on the News anymore), and would probably require some or a lot of resources to combat and/or work with major publishers.
 
If there is a serious recession (which Elon believes is probable) over the next 1-2 years...then Twitter had a good chance to go bankrupt leaving his 100M+ follower/subscriber account moot and gone.

In that scenario, Tesla would likely need to divert resources towards PR and Advertising or not because major publishers have poisoned the well Elon and all of his companies for a very long time. They'd have the upper hand, without social media (because FB doesn't focus on the News anymore), and would probably require some or a lot of resources to combat and/or work with major publishers.
I think you overestimate the marketing value of elons twitter account and underestimate the nature of teslas to sell themselves.
 
FInal update, I have now reached my target of 80,000 shares.

I am not moving from here and plan will be start unloading (very gradually) once share price hits $1,000. Still feel confident we will see $3,000 at some point

Now I need to find a new hobby for the next few years!
Have you considered your estate plan? You can set up a trust for anyone - not just relatives. Feel free to PM me if you are looking for additional trustees ;)
 
I think you overestimate the marketing value of elons twitter account and underestimate the nature of teslas to sell themselves.

That's possible. Though, how much of this board focuses on content creation and proliferation of what Elon says on Twitter compared to about Teslas? How much news is created based on his Twitter account where the first thing people learn about Tesla, as it grows worldwide, is what Elon says? The latter is a lot quicker to learn than the rate at which Teslas and their significant network effects work across the globe.

Here's some back of the napkin calculations I did a little big ago when his account was at 105M:

TBH - For 105M users on an account from a CEO of at least one company, Tesla, that does no advertising...

...automotive is $90 / customer, tech companies is $400 / customer (I'm just ballparking based from this data)

To Elon - Twitter is worth anywhere between $9.45B -> $42B just for his Elon Musk account alone to replace his customer acquisition for the products/services his companies provide.

Edit: Obviously, not every twitter user is real nor are they customers. Though, they are affiliates of his account which broadens his reach. I think the math in this post still stands if you use some multipliers that are beyond me.

Also, again if there's a major recession / wealth destruction and Tesla is planning to ramping up significantly, how many people are going to afford these cars compared to the last two years where there's been so much wealth creation? Will there be, finally, a possible demand problem?
 
That's possible. Though, how much of this board focuses on content creation and proliferation of what Elon says on Twitter compared to about Teslas? How much news is created based on his Twitter account where the first thing people learn about Tesla, as it grows worldwide, is what Elon says? The latter is a lot quicker to learn than the rate at which Teslas and their significant network effects work across the globe.

Here's some back of the napkin calculations I did a little big ago when his account was at $105M:



Also, again if there's a major recession / wealth destruction and Tesla is planning to ramping up significantly, how many people are going to afford these cars compared to the last two years where there's been so much wealth creation? Will there be, finally, a possible demand problem?
This board talks about his twitter account because it informs about the future of the company. It would be sad to no longer have to that information stream but I wouldn’t sell tsla just because it’s gone. And as time moves forward tsla become more and more of a value invest despite it being a growth company.

Tesla margins are so high that if the economy goes to *sugar* tesla can compensate for demand by bringing down the price a bit and even if they are more expensive than ice comparable vehicles the total cost of ownership is still longer for an EV.

There’s unlikely to be a demand problem