Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[OrthoSurg]

Wednesday was a perfect storm of unexpected Form 4s the night before, FTX unraveling, and CPI fear.

I thinks it’s more likely retail sold in the 170s (in the form of margin calls and options losses) and institutions loaded up back to the 190s, than the other way around.

We had to see capitulation in the stock and if Elon didn’t sell it means we probably saw it. If it was all the stop loss that triggered and margin calls then it means institutions will start buying back so it should overperform the Nasdaq which is weird because we don’t see that on upward days. Yet.

 

[mongo]

SEC Proposes New Share Repurchase Disclosure Rules | www.sec.gov › news › press-release

Dec 15, 2021 · The proposal would establish new Form SR for reporting issuer share repurchases and enhance existing periodic disclosure.​

So basically as it stands right now, Public Companies only are required to report share buybacks with their regular 10-Q/10-K filings. This new rule would require companies to report buybacks on a similar schedule to insider trades (3-day reporting).

So big difference. I'm not sure on the status of the proposed new rule.

Still in review...

SEC.gov | SEC Reopens Comment Periods for Several Rulemaking Releases Due to Technological Error in Receiving Certain Comments
Washington D.C., Oct. 7, 2022 —


The Securities and Exchange Commission today reopened the public comment periods for 11 Commission rulemaking releases and one request for comment due to a technological error that resulted in a number of public comments submitted through the Commission’s internet comment form not being received by the Commission. The majority of the affected comments were submitted in August 2022; however, the technological error is known to have occurred as early as June 2021.
To ensure that interested persons, including any affected commenters, have the opportunity to comment on the affected releases or to resubmit comments, the Commission is reopening the comment periods for the affected releases until 14 days following publication of the reopening release in the Federal Register.
...
Share Repurchase Disclosure Modernization, Release Nos. 34-93783, IC-34440 (Feb. 15, 2022)

Referencing:
Federal Register :: Request Access

 

[MrMoo]

We had to see capitulation in the stock and if Elon didn’t sell it means we probably saw it. If it was all the stop loss that triggered and margin calls then it means institutions will start buying back so it should overperform the Nasdaq which is weird because we don’t see that on upward days. Yet.

Probably because institutions aren't buying back since we only have a part time CEO and 1-5 week wait times on cars in China.

 

[JusRelax]

The new twitter video on Tesla safety by @FonsDK is a great share for anyone that has friends/acquaitances that want to discuss the China Tesla accident:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592199183100186625

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Probably because institutions aren't buying back since we only have a part time CEO and 1-5 week wait times on cars in China.

We had a part time CEO for years (Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, Neuralink). Now he added a fifth company. So what? Sure, it will take up much of his time in the coming weeks. But would everyone be running if he took a 4 week vacation (long overdue)? No. So it's is just fear-mongering.

And remember, Elon said he started working even more hours. Also, it's not like nothing gets done at Tesla if he isn't around. They have 110,000 employees, including many good managers. Why is it that so many people think nothing gets designed, engineered or built if Elon isn't sleeping on the floor?

 

[JusRelax]

Probably because institutions aren't buying back since we only have a part time CEO and 1-5 week wait times on cars in China.

While I do agree that China demand issues have had a temporary effect on TSLA, I also know that it's all just FUD. Below are the October CPCA numbers for mid-size sedan and mid-size SUVs in China. I think that it's important to remember that the demand issue is not Tesla-specific in China - the other auto manufacturers in China are struggling just as much with demand. Furthermore, China has much more flexibility in pricing power and/or exporting vehicles for delivery internationally instead.

EDIT: Note that these are EV-specfic charts. Also, the BYD Han is a PHEV.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591979031913967616

 

[MrMoo]

We had a part time CEO for years (Tesla, SpaceX, Boring Company, Neuralink). Now he added a fifth company. So what? Sure, it will take up much of his time in the coming weeks. But would everyone be panicking if he took a 4 week vacation (long overdue)? No. So this is just fear-mongering.

And remember, Elon said he started working even more hours. And it's not like nothing gets done at Tesla if he isn't around. They have 110,000 employees, including many good managers. Why is it that so many people think nothing gets designed, engineered or built if Elon isn't sleeping on the floor?

I guess my point really was that short term this will be a downer on the stock. Which is why I believe institutions are in a wait and see period. They want to see Q4, China, and how his new position in Twitter will effect TSLA. I mean his already sold stock to put into Twitter. Will he do it again after Q4? If he does then even if Q4 is a beat the stock won't go anywhere. There is probably just a lot of questions they want answered. So short term this stock is going to trade like a dog. I'm talking QQQ > TSLA potentially. I would love to be wrong, PLEASE prove me wrong here but we've seen this in 2021 when we were trading in the 600's. So to recap, mostly talking about short term share movement over the next 2-3 months while we wait for Q4 results. Don't be surprised to see SQ, ARKK, SHOP, NVDA, AMD all shooting up while we don't really get out of our funk.

While I do agree that China demand issues have had a temporary effect on TSLA, I also know that it's all just FUD. Below are the October CPCA numbers for mid-size sedan and mid-size SUVs in China. I think that it's important to remember that the demand issue is not Tesla-specific in China - the other auto manufacturers in China are struggling just as much with demand. Furthermore, China has much more flexibility in pricing power and/or exporting vehicles for delivery internationally instead.

EDIT: Note that these are EV-specfic charts. Also, the BYD Han is a PHEV.

View attachment 874793

https://twitter.com/x/status/1591979031913967616

Thanks for this information. The tables were good to look over. I'm not too sure how to interpret how Wall St will/would interpret these numbers (And future numbers) vs what they expect. I mean TSLA took a beating when Q3 deliveries were a tiny bit off. So Wall St seems to be super anal about the delivery numbers.

 

[Knightshade]

Under current rule Section 12 of the Exchange Act, which governs share repurchases, issuers are required to (1) disclose the total number of shares purchased by the issuer or an affiliated purchaser during the relevant period, reported on a monthly basis and by class; (2) the average price paid per share; (3) the total number of shares purchased as a part of a publicly announced share repurchase plan or program; and (4) the maximum number of shares that may yet be purchased under the plan. The rules also mandate footnote disclosure of the key terms of all publicly announced share repurchase plans, the number of shares purchased, other than publicly announced plans, and the nature of the transaction.

Generally a company will announce a buyback plan to the public in advance specifically because it gives them better defense against insider trading claims. That doesn't mean Tesla will of course.

 

[lascavarian]

Charlie Munger saying some respectful things about Elon and Tesla achievements.

 

[elasalle]

Generally a company will announce a buyback plan to the public in advance specifically because it gives them better defense against insider trading claims. That doesn't mean Tesla will of course.

So you can do buybacks without pre announcements?

~ we have 6 week window if they don’t want to get taxed.

By now Tesla should be able to project what 4Q quarter gonna be like…

 

[Knightshade]

So you can do buybacks without pre announcements?

~ we have 6 week window if they don’t want to get taxed.

By now Tesla should be able to project what 4Q quarter gonna be like…

AFAIK you can just it's safer not to, and most companies don't for that reason.

And you can be sure Q will be loud and proud about ALL THE FRAUD if they do it that way claiming they're just supporting the stock for more Elon sales, just as they're already on that about Starlink buying twitter adverts (even though they apparently bought with a bunch of social media companies)

FWIW I don't think the amount of the tax is especially material.... but agree if you're going to do it anyway avoiding it is better than paying it.

There might be OTHER accounting/business reasons they choose to wait but I've not had near enough caffeine yet to speculate on that

 

[JusRelax]

Anyone know why market is so heavily up in premarket? Does someone know something about PPI numbers that are about to come out or something?

 

[Stretch2727]

Chuck Cook in the NYT.

Looks like the car struggled quite a bit. One odd turn into a motel and another going the wrong way on a one way street.

What Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy (Published 2022)

We took a ride with Tesla’s experimental self-driving system. It was by turns intriguing, impressive and scary.

www.nytimes.com

 

[JusRelax]

Looks like Tesla is planning their first adjustment to how rates are calculated based off of Tesla Safety Score data:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592316646785716224

 

[JusRelax]

Anyone know why market is so heavily up in premarket? Does someone know something about PPI numbers that are about to come out or something?

Maybe someone knew something... Core PPI data came in quite low:

Off to the races!

 

[scaesare]

Quantum computing has been the next big thing for something like 10 years. Right up there with Memristors, Fusion, and affordable Solid State Batteries.

I'm sure some day some of these technologies will be interesting for commercial use.

Some day...

We're in luck! Now that we have quantum memristors, it will only be 10^2 = 100 years away for them to become commonplace... a perpetual 100 years that is....

 

[scubastevo80]

That’s a proposal. How long to find the actual rule in effect?

Comments on the proposal were due in April 1st. This proposal was never voted on and approved, so it's not in effect. Ever after approval, there's a compliance date so we're months out until this could go into effect.

https://www.sec.gov/rules/proposed/2021/34-93783-fact-sheet.pdf

 

[Discoducky]

We're in luck! Now that we have quantum memristors, it will only be 10^2 = 100 years away for them to become commonplace... a perpetual 100 years that is....

Quick story: A guy I worked with on TPUs at Google went to the quantum team in Santa Barbara. He was so excited, always a huge proponent of the tech, would talk your ear off about it. So I asked him when he thought it could be viable for production Google workloads (**ANY** production workloads). He thought a minute and said 10 years max. Well, that was 4 years ago and the prediction most have is still "10 years".

Anywho, I'm enjoying good PPI numbers and watching pre-market. Hooray!

The market thinks 80% chance we'll get *just* a 50 basis raise on Dec 14th

 

[AndrewZ]

This is where we rally hard, maybe to or even above the previous ATH, before the rate hikes etc start rolling through economic data and we grind down to a new bottom before the Fed eases off the brakes.

This seems to be how it has gone historically

 

[Dreadnought]

Chuck Cook in the NYT.

Looks like the car struggled quite a bit. One odd turn into a motel and another going the wrong way on a one way street.

What Riding in a Self-Driving Tesla Tells Us About the Future of Autonomy (Published 2022)

We took a ride with Tesla’s experimental self-driving system. It was by turns intriguing, impressive and scary.

www.nytimes.com

More balanced than other NYT pieces we've seen. Should be noted that most of the article is about a test drive in August and the last few paragraphs refer to a session about a week ago, therefore supposedly no 10.69.3 yet.