Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

I've seen this enough times to ask - what are the sources of this? Who did they send exactly, and now, why did Tesla do it?

Tesla Sends Shanghai Workers to California for Factory Boost | Yahoo Finance (Nov 1, 2022)

 

[ggies07]

Munro 4680 Energy Density Tested // Model Y Pack Size Explained | The Limiting Factor (1 hr ago)

So this is new to me....Tesla has said they will be moving away form Co and so one would assume that would be with their latest cell, but I guess not....

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

It was weird this time last year too as many people were expecting the legislation to be in effect by January.

Worst case, Tesla could offer a bridge discount to consumers similar to what they've done elsewhere. Customers who order after a certain date might get a discount if they take delivery before year end. Sort of the reverse of what they are doing in Germany where they give a discount if they take delivery after the German subsidies end. FSD discounts are an even easier way to go since it would maintain margins.

Maybe Tesla isn't pushing cars out the door in a year and purge, but they are probably not going to want huge inventory built up for beginning of Q1.

Tesla has already been active about enforcing their policy about current reservation holders trying to hold out until Jan 1st. They lose their spot in line and they pay current pricing, not the price that they were locked into. Depending on the reservation, this can be a difference of many thousands of dollars which negate much of the benefit of getting the tax credit.

 

[JRP3]

It was weird this time last year too as many people were expecting the legislation to be in effect by January.

Yes, I delayed mine last year hoping it would pass.

 

[Speedr117]

The Limiting Factor has a new video with the analysis of a Monroe 4680 cell:

Spoiler alert: Energy Density is 244 Wh/kg, lower than the 269 Wh/kg of the current Panasonic 2170 cell (and lower than the 252 Wh/kg of the China LG 2170). Early days, and there will be a ton of improvements, but for now. it shows that the range of the Giga Texas 4680 Model Ys is NOT software limited.

 

[traxila]

Elon has a term for employees who stand around 'observing': Ex-employees.

Further, do you have some source for your claim of an "early 2023 shut down"? Or was this an artifact of the "observing" gambit?

Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.

My memory maybe failing me, but I seem to recall that stopping the line in January for a couple of days to give the employees a break and for changes and fine tuning is pretty routine after the usual 4Q pandemonium.

Sorry if I am mistaken.

Either way, I don't believe I made an "extraordinary" claim.

 

[Speedr117]

So this is new to me....Tesla has said they will be moving away form Co and so one would assume that would be with their latest cell, but I guess not....

View attachment 875231

Didn't see the previous posts before I posted similar info (although with summary). My guess is the dry coating process might need more of the Cobalt to make it work (just a guess). Obviously they're doing it for a reason. Probably the same for why no Silicon has been added yet.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Unwinding the wave means a permanent increase in inventory at the end of the quarter because more vehicles will be in transit

Unwinding the wave means an increase in utilization of available transportation and logistics resources. Some inventory build is a side effect of this, but does not reduce profitability.

The net effect will be to deliver more vehicles total per quarter (and at a steadier pace that's better for Tesla's staff) than if they had just continued rolling the wave.

Delivery Logistics is now the bottleneck rather than production, and Tesla has adapted (its what they do). Note that at no point in this discussion was demand mentioned was any cat ruffled.

Cheers!

 

[Mengy]

Tesla posted on Twitter that Berlin was already at 2k per week run rate as of October 1st. That may have been a burst rate, but they also don’t even have a third shift yet which is supposedly coming in December as we last heard publicly.

2k extrapolated for 13 weeks = is 26k quarterly run rate. Berlin is rapidly growing. 28k implies Berlin's Q4 average production will be just 8% more than the rate in the last week of September.

Tesla also tweeted that Austin went from 10k cumulative as of Sep 17th to 20k on Nov 1st, 45 days later. 45 days is slightly less than half of a 93-day quarter, so this already proves Austin can do at least 20k+ in Q4. In reality they're already trending well past 20k. On the Q3 call three weeks ago, Elon said:


So, both B&A are trending for at least 3k average weekly production across Q4 if they get anywhere close to 5k per week by EoY as Tesla has repeatedly guided for. They will probably make 40k or more.

Good analysis. I do think my Q4 numbers for Berlin & Austin are low, but I try to keep my expectations conservative so I'm not overly disappointed if a fly gets in the works and slows the ramps down for a bit. I hope you are more correct than I am!

 

[SOULPEDL]

It was weird this time last year too as many people were expecting the legislation to be in effect by January.

Worst case, Tesla could offer a bridge discount to consumers similar to what they've done elsewhere. Customers who order after a certain date might get a discount if they take delivery before year end. Sort of the reverse of what they are doing in Germany where they give a discount if they take delivery after the German subsidies end. FSD discounts are an even easier way to go since it would maintain margins.

Maybe Tesla isn't pushing cars out the door in a year and purge, but they are probably not going to want huge inventory built up for beginning of Q1.

It's pretty real to some degree, but plenty of levers to pull in case as we all know.

Phone support is heading it off with "If this is about how the EV tax incentives... consult your tax advisor." (OT, the actual reason for my call was that my trade-in needs a new rear hatch and wanted to know if it matters if Tesla vs Tesla qualified repairs it for when I trade-in. Hold times are still long, good sign.)

 

[Paracelsus]

Elon has a term for employees who stand around 'observing': Ex-employees.

To your point @Artful Dodger :

 

[Artful Dodger]

My memory maybe failing me, but I seem to recall that stopping the line in January for a couple of days to give the employees a break and for changes and fine tuning is pretty routine after the usual 4Q pandemonium.

Sorry if I am mistaken.

Either way, I don't believe I made an "extraordinary" claim.

Okay, I see what you're saying. Tesla usually does this at Fremont for the Fourth of July holiday and Thanksgiving, too. Initially, it sounded like you were saying there was some unannounced plan to, for example, take the three line down to upgrade to front gigacastings. That's more than a long weekend to convert.

Cheers!

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here are the leading candidates.

View attachment 875219

Thomas Riker?!

 

[wipster]

Interesting article about the 2 accidents that may be dragging down the market:

NHTSA data reveals two new fatal crashes with Tesla ADAS features active, but there's more to the story [Update]

The NHTSA data shows a Tesla ADAS system was active but appears to not have been the cause, or even a factor, in the crash.

driveteslacanada.ca

 

[AudubonB]

To your point @Artful Dodger :

View attachment 875233

Never thought I’d ever be guffawing over the vomit-inducing trend of pronounciations, but that was magnificent!

 

[Ogre]

It's pretty real to some degree, but plenty of levers to pull in case as we all know.

Phone support is heading it off with "If this is about how the EV tax incentives... consult your tax advisor." (OT, the actual reason for my call was that my trade-in needs a new rear hatch and wanted to know if it matters if Tesla vs Tesla qualified repairs it for when I trade-in. Hold times are still long, good sign.)

I suspect one of the reasons Tesla has been quiet about which cars will qualify for incentives and how much is likely to stave off a bit of this effect. If you have a M3SR on order it's a giant question mark whether it will qualify at all. It likely will, but $3,750 or the full $7,500? The M3LR is still off the menu for the moment, likely for similar reasons. They don't want people delaying orders hoping to catch a discount. The less clear the presence or absence of a future discount, the less likely people will delay their orders.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Spoiler alert: Energy Density is 244 Wh/kg, lower than the 269 Wh/kg of the current Panasonic 2170 cell

Cell-level energy density is an artifact. It's pack-level (including struture) that matters. How much more or less does the entire vehicle weigh vs a Model Y with a 2170-style cargo pack?

 

[Gigapress]

So this is new to me....Tesla has said they will be moving away form Co and so one would assume that would be with their latest cell, but I guess not....

View attachment 875231

Drew on Q2 call:

Our priority was really on simplicity and scale during the initial 4680 and structural battery ramp. So we weren't like putting all the bells and whistles in from day 1 because if so, we would be sort of suffering under a string of serious miracles that we would need to achieve to get going.

But as we attain the manufacturing goals that we've stated at the ramp that we need to hit next year, we are certainly planning to layer in new material technologies and higher-range structural packs, like we're not like holding back goodies for some rainy day or something like that.

Of all the bells and whistles to be introduced, elimination of cobalt is one of the riskiest. Cobalt is in the chemistry to stabilize the cathode and prevent degradation or worse, catastrophic thermal runaway. As @Speedr117 pointed out, the cathode is not using the dry deposition process yet which may indicate Tesla is taking a generally cautious approach with cathode materials. The dry electrode is such a radical change that I would expect Tesla to implement that for the cathode and ensure it's working well before working on cutting out cobalt (and manganese).

The 4680 cell tested by Dr. Meng's lab at UCSD came from the Munro teardown Y, which is several months old. It's hard to guess exactly where Tesla is right now with respect to new cell technology introduction. Notably, on the Q3 call Zach said:

[On 4680s] our focus is now shifting from 100% ramp to cost and further expanding production capacity in North America, as Elon also mentioned. On the 2170 versus 4680, in our factories, we really attempt to minimize factory complexity and product changeover while still making sure we get enough new product into the field to learn how it is performing.

One of the biggest cost elements is cobalt content. If Tesla is now focusing on 4680 cost, reducing or eliminating cobalt would be one of the prime targets if it's safe enough. The main question is whether the performance data from the 4680s already in service in the fleet indicates that cobalt at 12.4% of the cathode is still necessary. Only Tesla has that answer though.

 

[Dangerous Fish]

Never thought I’d ever be guffawing over the vomit-inducing trend of pronounciations, but that was magnificent!

It's "pronunciations"

 

[thx1139]

Also, if you follow Rob, he takes into account deposits from the latest earnings that clearly contradict Troy's thesis. But ya know.....Troy can't be bothered to have outside opinion.

I mean just look at this exchange

https://twitter.com/x/status/1592745377807372289

Guy acts like he knows Tesla's exact backlog # specifically for China.......the arrogance is unbelievable

Wasnt the worldwide inventory at the end of Q3 35K not China. Tesla had multiple shipments on boats on way to Europe and other countries and who knows how many on trains and car carriers etc. in Europe, US, etc.

I basically figure the last week of production in December wont be delivered until January so roughly 40K.