Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jw934]

My M3 charging cost ran $38 last month, since I charge 96% from home. This saved me $200+

The inflation-adjusted electricity cost should continue to drop as humanity moves to solar/wind/battery.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Finally!!! I was wondering when we would get another Tesla fire article with the amount of gallons of water used!

Pennsylvania Tesla bursts into flames, photos show unrecognizable metal husk

A Tesla vehicle burst into flames while driving on a Pennsylvania highway Tuesday morning, requiring firefighters to use 12,000 gallons of water to extinguish it.

www.foxbusiness.com

Also, first time i have ever seen the tow company's named used .... hmmmm

 

[Artful Dodger]

I highly doubt this is true. Why would Tesla take the time to build out 30 hand built CT's while they are actively building the CT production line? They have plenty of other stuff going on, especially with the low volume Semi line starting up right now.

Be wary of any CT news that comes out on the morning of an Options Expiry Friday.

Reminds me of the rumor from an anonymous German source that said CT would be produced at Giga Texas before Model Y.

Hilarious part is the Market reacted to that b.s.

Cheers to the longs:

P.S. the following chart is AMZN today (NOT building CTs) Most Tect/Growth stocks were pounced on at the Open today (c.f. NVDA)

 

[Ogre]

Be wary of any CT news that comes out on the morning of an Options Expiry Friday.

I don't know about "30 Hand Built Cybertrucks" but

On the conference call we were informed that a beta Cybertruck was being built "In a few weeks". If it's a beta run, it makes sense they would produce more than one.

So it's a quirky rumor posted by an unreliable source... but it's consistent with what Tesla management has said already.

 

[FireMedic]

The more I look at other EV manufacturers' stock tickers during the past few days, the more I think this price action is more recession fear-related than Twitter/Elon related. I absolutely think Elon has put an overhang on the stock and made our floor lower than it otherwise would be, but Rivian, Lucid, and (to a lesser extent) BYD's CEOs have not controversially bought out social media platforms last I checked.

Big tech too. Amazon and Google are both down pretty big today. Seems like all big tech are the target for this bear market (except AAPL who has been mostly spared during this whole bear market…makes me think they’re next).

 

[tslagreen]

Be wary of any CT news that comes out on the morning of an Options Expiry Friday.

Reminds me of the rumor from an anonymous German source that said CT would be produced at Giga Texas before Model Y.

Hilarious part is the Market reacted to that b.s.

Cheers to the longs:

P.S. the following chart is AMZN today (NOT building CTs) Most Tect/Growth stocks were pounced on at the Open today (c.f. NVDA)

View attachment 875914

Be wary of any CT news that comes out on the morning of an Options Expiry Friday.

Reminds me of the rumor from an anonymous German source that said CT would be produced at Giga Texas before Model Y.

Hilarious part is the Market reacted to that b.s.

Cheers to the longs:

P.S. the following chart is AMZN today (NOT building CTs) Most Tect/Growth stocks were pounced on at the Open today (c.f. NVDA)

View attachment 875914

 

[tslagreen]

Be wary of any CT news that comes out on the morning of an Options Expiry Friday.

Reminds me of the rumor from an anonymous German source that said CT would be produced at Giga Texas before Model Y.

Hilarious part is the Market reacted to that b.s.

Cheers to the longs:

P.S. the following chart is AMZN today (NOT building CTs) Most Tect/Growth stocks were pounced on at the Open today (c.f. NVDA)

View attachment 875914

Just posted TSLA and AMZN charts. Pretty darn similar.

 

[cliff harris]

People calling for buy backs at this point in time should ask themselves if they would start spending down their personal emergency funds when the company they work for is talking about extensive layoffs that may include them.

Well it depends. The cash pile Tesla has is pretty huge and getting even bigger. I dont think anybody thinks Tesla should blow all its savings on a buyback, but even a $1billion buyback would be welcome. What is the current cash stockpile Tesla has this moment?
And frankly, it would be more sensible for them to buy some TSLA at these prices than Bitcoin...

 

[cliff harris]

There are a lot of comments about production but little to address the reports of falling Chinese demand. If Tesla end Q4 with 60K- 70K inventory there will more pain to follow...

Really? I see zero chance of them ending the quarter like that. That would be a huge overproduction. Also, plenty of countries are happy to take Chinese built model Ys and 3s if the Chinese do not want them, and at a higher profit margin than they would earn if sold in China anyway

 

[H Mak]

I would say almost a certainty 😅

Volkswagen in talks with pre-IPO investors for battery unit - sources

German carmaker Volkswagen is holding discussions with investors to join its battery division ahead of a possible partial initial public offering (IPO) of the subsidiary, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters.

www.reuters.com

There also have been some rumours that they’re planning to IPO Lamborghini. Selling of all the money making parts and brands isn’t a good look imo.

If Volkswagen IPO their software division I might sit that one out

 

[Curt Renz]

This is a monthly options expiration day, implyiing more interest than in an ordinary weekly, but less than for a quarterly (Triple Witching).

A survey of today’s open interest and trading volume in TSLA options, suggests that $180 would be the most profitable target for big option writers (hedge funds & market makers) with the ability to temporarily influence the share price.

 

[traxila]

People call TSLA a cult stock, and so it is, but perhaps a weak imitation of AAPL.

AAPL has a free cash flow yield of 4.5% and is the stock of first and last resort for a generation of investors.

It is the last standing TECH standing. It may make it to the other side. It just makes more money all the time and I don’t see the Apple ecosystem falling apart anytime soon.

Best argument against its SP right now is that it should be growing faster, but bellwether industry leaders always command a premium. A bad recession will bring down AAPL… less than the other TECHs. I can definitely see it staying between 135 and 160 until the next bull and exploding from there.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

You might be right, though I am not bearish even for a minute.
and this thing might turn around in a flash, and everything we think is sinking
the stock turns out to be nonsense.

I'm bearish for the next 6 weeks but don't mistake that for being bearish on TSLA in general at all. In fact, while some here think we'll be in this depressed valuation state for many quarters or a year(s), I think it always comes down to money........and Tesla's earnings will do some heavy lifting which will lead to a pretty speedy recovery back up ATH valuation by mid 2023.

I think Q4's P/D and earnings will bring the stock back up to the 250-300 level. Possible that there's some things in Q4 earnings like Energy continuing its rapid % growth and turning more profitable along with margins going back above 30%...............which I do think will happen, even with the China price cuts (and even if they cut prices again) and then I could see the stock back above 300 easily within a week or two after earnings. This is because of the higher production rates from Berlin/Austin drastically improving their gross margin due to depreciation/amortization and also full utilization of Shanghai, which was only at 50-60% production capacity in both Q2 and Q3, which dropped gross margins (mainly due to depreciation/amortization). There's also FSD wide release which if that happens, I expect to both boost earnings and gross margins.

But the fireworks really begin on Q1's earnings because that will be the first quarter that we get impacts from IRA. Seeing how Q1’s earnings will be in Q2, I expect Tesla to state initial production of Cybertruck is starting. Semi will also be going a production ramp that while it won’t be high numbers, it will be material enough to force analysts to factor Semi revenue into their forecast (which none seem to be doing right now). Once those impacts show up in the earnings, Wall St is going to do a major re-evaluation of TSLA. I think it blows through it's ATH........even if the macro's haven't recovered yet.

Yes.....I think the impacts of the IRA will be that profound.

 

[Discoducky]

If Tesla end Q4 with 60K- 70K inventory there will more pain to follow...

What do you think the percent chance of that happening is? What is your opinion?

 

[Mirindi]

This 3-5% bleed every day sure is tiring, feels like Q4 P/D is the only thing that can save stop this? No other (good) news really seems to matter at this point.

 

[GrimRe]

What do you think the percent chance of that happening is? What is your opinion?

This is by far will be the biggest determining factor on recovery or not. It seems production will be around 460-480k and if deliveries are 430-440k it will be considered a beat.

 

[dl003]

View attachment 875919

Hard to take this seriously when SEDG and ENPH are inches from new ATH. SEDG's PE is 150. In a recession people will go out and install solar more? Ok.

This market is absurd.

 

[MountainRatMat]

The NASDAQ could lose another 10%. That means TSLA could lose 20-40%. Buyback at these levels makes no sense and won’t stop the selling. When risk of recession is gone, they can start the buy back.

Then it is too late...it isn't about buying back at the lowest prices, it is about buying back at strategically advantageous prices.

To be clear, I'm not sure which side of the buyback argument I fall on but if Tesla does want to do buybacks I wouldn't have a problem with them doing it now.

 

[Artful Dodger]

And people out there must be SELLING SHORTING tesla stock?

FTFY. It's practically free to short TSLA from an economic viewpoint, since Options Market Makers are allowed to increase the supply of shares without limit.

Have you noticed that nobody even mentioned the 15M+ increase in reported short shares:

TSLA Short Interest | NASDAQ.com

And this latest report still only covers October, before Elon's Nov 4,7-8 share sales. I estimate shortzes were selling about 10:1 shares they don't own for every one Elon sold that he does own. And shortzing continued for 4 days after his last sale.

NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule | Paging @Papafox

$MADOFF $EC

 

[Skryll]

Stellantis Launches the Fiat 500e to test the US market for EVs…

Fiat 500e will be Stellantis' EV test run in the U.S.

In a roundtable, Fiat Brand CEO Olivier François shared plans for the Fiat 500e and the automaker. The U.S. launch will be a test run for EV sales.

www.autoblog.com

That’s a fantastic plan, as your EV “Test” use a vehicle with poor sales to start with. Then when you unappealing, poorly priced trial car fails to gain any sales at all, you can blame the fact that it’s an EV. /s

The 2015-2019 Fiat 500e were a fun little car, not something you want to drive on the highway without a helmet, but definitely cool as a cheap town car with short range. Plenty of room for two passengers, cute look etc. Compliance car back then, is this going to be different ?