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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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The 2015-2019 Fiat 500e were a fun little car, not something you want to drive on the highway without a helmet, but definitely cool as a cheap town car with short range. Plenty of room for two passengers, cute look etc. Compliance car back then, is this going to be different ?
Only way this makes sense is if it costs $22k or less and qualifies for the rebate. That puts it as a nice $15k commuter/ college kid car people can afford.

But with what will likely be a $6k battery pack (my SWAG based on their likely higher battery cost and ~an estimated 45 - 55 kWh pack).
 
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This is one petition I would never sign. This is a horrible idea until the recession is over and global markets have stabilized.
Depends on the sizing. If you have 6b free cash flow, spending 1b on scooping up ridiculously undervalued shares while keeping 5b for rainy days may be a good investment, also to send a signal about how you value your own trajectory.
 
It's a nice ship... I plan on buying more chairs...but thanks for your "concern".

... and you're getting them "on-sail". ;)

Monday-Meme-Live-Sail-Die.jpg


Cheers to the Longs!
 
But the fireworks really begin on Q1's earnings
Same story I've read in this thread for years. "Next quarter! That's when wall street will see value and tsla will rise"

Soon we will start seeing the next event being hyped in this thread. Then people will estimate a surprise beat in delivery numbers higher than expected.

Then people are disappointed.

But next quarter!
 
Well it depends. The cash pile Tesla has is pretty huge and getting even bigger. I dont think anybody thinks Tesla should blow all its savings on a buyback, but even a $1billion buyback would be welcome. What is the current cash stockpile Tesla has this moment?
And frankly, it would be more sensible for them to buy some TSLA at these prices than Bitcoin...
A billion buyback is like virtue signaling.

They got about 20 B in the bank and as I said previously, that is not as much as you think in this industry.

What does BTC have to do with anything at this point? Past actions aside….
 
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Wouldn't that be the best time to build and invest??
You may have the made the unstated assumption that more money == more progress. This is not true with Tesla, the are spending money on growth as quickly as they can without wasting it. They can not force lithium mining permits with more money. They can not conjure up engineering talent out of thin air; they have to grow it.

Now you got me thinking I really rather not see a buyback anytime soon.

Sharebuy backs will always be done out of FCF. Right now is an advantageous time simply because the current SP is below that of the Dec 2020 cap raise, so Tesla can buy back all $5B worth of TSLA it sold at that time for a net gain.

The outstanding issue is, will they be able to buyback the $5B in TSLA they sold in Sep 2020? We'll know shortly (sweet justice if shortzes restock Tesla's larder).

Cheers!
 
Same story I've read in this thread for years. "Next quarter! That's when wall street will see value and tsla will rise"

Soon we will start seeing the next event being hyped in this thread. Then people will estimate a surprise beat in delivery numbers higher than expected.

Then people are disappointed.

But next quarter!
It will happen again. Just like after Q3 2019. Continued earnings growth will eventually push the stock higher.
 
Well buy-and-hold folks, you can start shaking your heads now. I just put my brass balls and peanut brain on the table, and converted my shares to LEAP call spreads. I'm basically all LEAP call spreads now (250 / 400). I just can't see the share price staying this depressed for 2 years given even a conservative growth in earnings and PE ratio. And I'm willing to risk a lot on that bet.

Shorter term - 1 year: This means my trade moves ~ 2x with TSLA price changes. Don't have to wait until expiration to exit.

1.5 - 2ish years:

> ~$350 share price: 500% return on investment (vs 110% for shares)

~ $300: 150% ROI (vs 70% for shares)

~ $280: Same as holding shares

< 250: :oops:

So you can monitor my mood over the next 2 years with this simple breakdown.

If the stock is under $250 in 2 years, don't be surprised if I disappear only to be seen on Twitter raging on how VW software is far superior to Tesla's.
 
Kinda...US retail sales rose 1.3% in October, the Census Bureau reported Wednesday.



Leading economic indicators | Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says (4 hrs ago)

Time (ET)ReportPeriodActualMedian ForecastPrevious
10 amLeading economic indicatorsOct.-0.8%-0.4%-0.5%

I think the FED will slow rate hikes to 0.5% at the Dec FOMC meating, and will see a Santa Claus rally. ;)

Cheers!
 
2 Years Later:

Tesla is doing fantastic. Approaching production rates of 4 million vehicles / year. Cybertruck is a volume production hit. FSDbeta is so good as L2 that Tesla can sell every car with it for an additional $10k of pure profit. Energy division is growing massively and contributing 20% to earnings.

Tesla is generating 20 EPS annualized and with a PE ratio of 40 is valued at $800. Everyone is happy.

But then...

1) @Troy points out that demand in Burkina Faso is waning. Stock tumbles to $600

2) Jerome Powell falls asleep and lets his random number generator pick the FED interest rate. Stock tumbles to $400

2) Elon Musk buys a failing Meta, fires all employees except Mark Zuckerberg. Musk spends all his time attempting to get Neuralink to operate Zuckerburg's brain. Stock tumbles to $200, PE ratio of 10.

@ZeApelido is forced to work a second job as a sad, old male dancer in a dilapidated Las Vegas hotel.
 
Well buy-and-hold folks, you can start shaking your heads now. I just put my brass balls and peanut brain on the table, and converted my shares to LEAP call spreads. I'm basically all LEAP call spreads now (250 / 400). I just can't see the share price staying this depressed for 2 years given even a conservative growth in earnings and PE ratio. And I'm willing to risk a lot on that bet.

Shorter term - 1 year: This means my trade moves ~ 2x with TSLA price changes. Don't have to wait until expiration to exit.

1.5 - 2ish years:

> ~$350 share price: 500% return on investment (vs 110% for shares)

~ $300: 150% ROI (vs 70% for shares)

~ $280: Same as holding shares

< 250: :oops:

So you can monitor my mood over the next 2 years with this simple breakdown.

If the stock is under $250 in 2 years, don't be surprised if I disappear only to be seen on Twitter raging on how VW software is far superior to Tesla's.

So far, I lost 1K of my piggy banks shares with Leap conversion(+actually not bad for such a sustained dip) :( Shuffled them to Jan 25, 250's so still have 2 more years for a turn around :)
Original shares still intact, not converting by any means :) all have Jan 24 500-600 CC's(hedge) against and the CC's are doing well:)

Man I can't remember what mountains look like :) :)
 
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Another boring day of $TSLA being smacked down, but this should cheer everybody up from another beloved wall street analyst Gene Munster:

a long list of seven candidates, in order of probability:
Herbert Diess.

Apparently, RJ Scaringe, Doug Field, Jeff Bezos, Peter Rawlinson are out, according to Mr. Munster.

But, you sure you didn't leave someone out, such as YouLed Mary, Dear Sir?
 
A billion buyback is like virtue signaling.

They got about 20 B in the bank and as I said previously, that is not as much as you think in this industry.

What does BTC have to do with anything at this point? Past actions aside….
Personally, I think a token buyback is a good idea. It just serves as a reminder to the market that this is an amazingly innovative company with strong cash flow and if you don’t wanna buy shares someone else will so don’t take this company for granted. It does not have to be $10 billion. I agree they should keep a lot of cash to minimize risk. Even a small buyback changes the narrative.
 
Leading economic indicators | Economy may be in a recession already, Conference Board says (4 hrs ago)

Time (ET)ReportPeriodActualMedian ForecastPrevious
10 amLeading economic indicatorsOct.-0.8%-0.4%-0.5%

I think the FED will slow rate hikes to 0.5% at the Dec FOMC meating, and will see a Santa Claus rally. ;)

Cheers!
I think so as well; the watch tool went from 80% to 75% though.

 
They are correct. But there are no guarantees.

Do you spend down your emergency fund to try and take advantage of buying opportunities? Personal appetites for risk aside, don’t believe this should be a corporate strategy.

20B in this industry is not that much.

Lol, so much fear, so much misunderstanding:
  1. Tesla does not have $20B in cash/equivalents, it was over $21B after Q3 and likely to add over $5 in FCF during Q4 (Tesla already knows how much they'll make in Q4; we won't find up for 2 more months)
  2. $20B is not their emergency fund; that's like 3 fully-equipped Gigafactories worth of cash (that's not an emergency, that's a global wipeout, which BTW cash will not fix)
  3. Investing in TSLA treasury stock IS NOT SPENDING. It is the purchase of an asset, not an expense. The asset is highly liquid, and extremely good value right now
  4. $20B might not be much if you waste money like GM Ford VW or Toyota, but Tesla can go a LONG, LONG way on a dollar (100 workers achieve better results than 350 at companies like Toyota).
TL;dr Relax. It'll be okay. ;)

Cheers to the Longs!
 
This 3-5% bleed every day sure is tiring, feels like Q4 P/D is the only thing that can save stop this? No other (good) news really seems to matter at this point.

I can't shake this feeling of deja vu...
People were posting similar statements about Q3 IIRC, but then reality hit hard
 
Another boring day of $TSLA being smacked down, but this should cheer everybody up from another beloved wall street analyst Gene Munster:



Apparently, RJ Scaringe, Doug Field, Jeff Bezos, Peter Rawlinson are out, according to Mr. Munster.

But, you sure you didn't leave someone out, such as YouLed Mary, Dear Sir?
What a silly post.

Why would Musk identify people he's never worked with and who are older than him as his replacement?

Likewise anyone who manages significantly differently than he does. Musk's replacement is almost certainly an insider with the slimmest chance Straubel's name might be in the hat.