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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Mengy

Active Member
Feb 18, 2020
2,044
18,190
PA
But yeah, the point is that there's a massive jump in margins just sitting there for Tesla......just one quarter away. 5-6% margin guaranteed with additional margin coming in from the combination of people buying higher trim models with the savings they're getting from the ev tax credit and/or Tesla not having to drop prices in the US as supplies costs drop.

It's truly surreal that this is just a month and a half away from actually happening and just a little over one quarter away from it showing up in earnings.

Why does everyone believe the IRA will result in Tesla margins going up? That only happens if Tesla raises car prices on Jan 1, if they hold prices steady then all of the credit goes to the consumers, NOT Tesla, and margins would remain unchanged.

Right? 🤔
 
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The magnitude of the cut tells you it's complete BS. Lots of clowns in China taking advantage the fact there's no back log so they are just making up crap. There's no way Tesla will take a margin hit when they can send those cars to other places of the world with backlogs and no margin hits.

While true, Ray4Tesla has been a reliable source with local sentiment and rumors form China. Chinese economy is in really terrible shape with all the constant lockdowns and uncertainty. Also, there are only so many unbooked cargo ships available and if Tesla wants to sell as many as possible in Q4, price cut is the way to do it.
 

Stretch2727

Engineer and Car Nut
Nov 8, 2015
897
8,481
East Coast, USA
Why does everyone believe the IRA will result in Tesla margins going up? That only happens if Tesla raises car prices on Jan 1, if they hold prices steady then all of the credit goes to the consumers, NOT Tesla, and margins would remain unchanged.

Right? 🤔
There is a potential $45/KwH for cells and battery modules which goes to the manufacturer as long as they are made in the US or with a free trade partner. So there is an incentive for both consumers and manufacturers.
 

MP3Mike

Well-Known Member
Feb 1, 2016
20,431
51,868
Oregon
Why does everyone believe the IRA will result in Tesla margins going up? That only happens if Tesla raises car prices on Jan 1, if they hold prices steady then all of the credit goes to the consumers, NOT Tesla, and margins would remain unchanged.

Right? 🤔
Nope, wrong. The battery cell credit, and pack production credit goes directly to Tesla.
 

Singuy

Well-Known Member
Jun 28, 2018
7,634
73,759
US
While true, Ray4Tesla has been a reliable source with local sentiment and rumors form China. Chinese economy is in really terrible shape with all the constant lockdowns and uncertainty. Also, there are only so many unbooked cargo ships available and if Tesla wants to sell as many as possible in Q4, price cut is the way to do it.
Seems like byd is deliverying just fine at 40k a week, and Tesla is already over 25k delivered for the month and looks to be every car they have minus 5 days of production. So I don't see this demand cliff. Given the volume China buys, 50-70k cars a month is not all that great
People are making it sound like people stop buying cars in China.

Also moneyball has even better sources than Ray and his price drop rumor was BS.
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
4,785
26,430
Kennewick, WA
<snip>
We'll see who wins the information war.
Indeed! Especially when Twitter may soon be the go to source for truthful information that doesn't depend on heinous headlines to spread the FUD. Let's see how well Tesla, SpaceX, et al, along with truthful trusted online sources like DriveTeslaCanada utilize the platform to hopefully spread the TRUTH!

Bezos may own the Washington Post, but Elon owns Twitter with viewers worldwide...
 
Why does everyone believe the IRA will result in Tesla margins going up? That only happens if Tesla raises car prices on Jan 1, if they hold prices steady then all of the credit goes to the consumers, NOT Tesla, and margins would remain unchanged.

Right? 🤔
There is money that goes direct ly to Tesla, and with the credit that goes directly to buyers means a certain portion of buyers will choose higher priced (aka higher margin) options than they would otherwise.
 

Ogre

On The Clown Car
Sep 6, 2021
3,910
28,585
Oregon
Why does everyone believe the IRA will result in Tesla margins going up? That only happens if Tesla raises car prices on Jan 1, if they hold prices steady then all of the credit goes to the consumers, NOT Tesla, and margins would remain unchanged.

Right? 🤔
Even if you carve out the manufacturer incentives Tesla is likely to receive, just getting the incentive effectively lower the purchase price of the car. This should lead to higher demand and allow Tesla to keep prices at their current elevated level for longer. This is doubly true since few of the other automakers qualify for the full $7,500 credit. For example the LYRIQ will only qualify for $3,750 so the model Y is getting a relative price cut for many consumers.

As a sort of related side note, Teslas margins are going up as the Texas Model Y ramp continues.

PLUS the manufacturing incentive others have spoken of.
 

Mengy

Active Member
Feb 18, 2020
2,044
18,190
PA
Sorry if already posted, but it looks like the profits from storage - megapacks - in the near future will be enormous if the following video is half right.


-and imagine when they can offer the FSD option, it will be even more amazing!

That was a very interesting and incredibly well laid out video on Tesla energy for 2023 and beyond. I have megapacks ramping slower in my model but I think he has a point, it's going to ramp faster than I expect, and 2023 might be the year megapack production kicks into super high gear.

This has huge potential to spike revenues for 2023 more than most expect.
 

jw934

Member
Supporting Member
Jul 23, 2018
592
12,761
Toronto
When you have no idea what is Tesla about, and have not looked at the company in 2 years, perhaps it is best not to go on television to let everyone know your ignorance.

At 4:26 mark -
“the only 3 things that Tesla had going for it was the S&P500 inclusion and the stock split and reaching 500,000/year production. Those positives are already in the price. I don’t know what else Tesla has going for it going forward.”


CNBC today. Posted to YouTube 2 hours ago.
 

Ogre

On The Clown Car
Sep 6, 2021
3,910
28,585
Oregon
When you have no idea what is Tesla about, and have not looked at the company in 2 years, perhaps it is best not to go on television to let everyone know your ignorance.

At 4:26 mark -
“the only 3 things that Tesla had going for it was the s&p500 inclusion and the stock split and reaching 500,000/year production. Those positives are already in the price. I don’t know what else Tesla has going for it going forward.”


CNBC today. Posted to YouTube 2 hours ago.
He didn’t even notice that this was the notorious Cybertruck pattern. We all know what this means.

Also… the fact that he thinks Tesla’s sales are ~500k…. Urm what?



EDIT: I mean honestly... how can you draw that chart with a straight face and not say something about how it resembles the Cybertruck?
 
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I was expecting much worse today, considering the reports about the exodus I read late last night at the organization we are not allowed to mention. I am now confident that we will not go down further from here.

Your confidence will be rewarded. The FED wants higher unemployment before they feel comfortable rolling off the rate increases. Elon is helping them reach their goal! 🤔

Kudos to the Chief Twit for doing his part to help solve this inflation issue for us HODLers. 😉
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
4,785
26,430
Kennewick, WA
When you have no idea what is Tesla about, and have not looked at the company in 2 years, perhaps it is best not to go on television to let everyone know your ignorance.

At 4:26 mark -
“the only 3 things that Tesla had going for it was the S&P500 inclusion and the stock split and reaching 500,000/year production. Those positives are already in the price. I don’t know what else Tesla has going for it going forward.”


CNBC today. Posted to YouTube 2 hours ago.
Damn, maybe Elon should buy NBC next...
 
I don't understand all the gloom and doom that's out there. The average recession is 10 months, the longest was the Great Recession at 18 months. We have been in a recession for a while already IMO.
Your opinion would matter only if those previous recession lengths were the results of your contemporaneous opinion. They weren't, so your opinion is meaningless. The folks who declared the start and end of those recessions have not yet said we're in a recession now at all.
 

wipster

Meanwhile I was still thinkin'...
Supporting Member
Nov 10, 2013
4,785
26,430
Kennewick, WA
Damn, maybe Elon should buy NBC next...
Kind of reminds me of the final episode of "The Good Fight" where the billionaire owner of the biggest social media site offers to buy the Democratic Party, and when the chairman laughs it off and starts to walk away, the billionaire says, "By the way, I just bought Fox News..." Whereupon the chairman quickly turns around.

A definite play on the current state of Elon!
 
A 15% price cut seems pretty unlikely at face value. Why would Tesla do that all at once instead of in smaller increments to see the response? And why wouldn't Tesla just export more cars instead of selling in China if domestic demand is really that bad?

Obviously, demand has collapsed so hard and so suddenly that drastic action was needed to move the cars! ;) /s

Seriously, I agree. It appears Elon was right when he predicted rising FUD.
 

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