Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[cliff harris]

Why the disagree on new factory placement? Florida, like Texas would be advantageous from a tax standpoint as well as serving the east coast quite well.

I just don't think it will be the US (didn't disagree your post though). Elon is a very global thinker, and a very long term thinker.
I would expect him to be looking hard at India, or even eventually Africa.
Tesla already has 2 big factories in the US, and also Nevada and the megapack/supercharger stuff.

Car sales by country:

Car Sales by Country | Global Car Sales Data | 1. China 2. US

Top 25 countries for car sales per year. This list of car sales by country includes global rank, number of units sold, and top car brands within each country listed.

www.factorywarrantylist.com

...Suggests Japan/India/Brazil. FWIW Chile has 6x the lithium that China has. Batteries in Chile -> Cars in Brazil, export to South America and west coast of Africa?

Japan needs to wait until Toyota are actually properly bankrupt

 

[Fred42]

Something I've been wondering for a while now: With $20B in cash, what's the holdup for announcing and building the next gigafactory?
Sure, Berlin and Texas are still ramping. It seems like that's going fine. So shouldn't this capital be used for something useful? Why not move as fast as possible?

What would they build beyond announced plans? Lots of potential for storage that requires more factories, including cells, Megapacks, and home storage. But in vehicles:

Yesses:
- Right now energy is a problem in Europe, but it takes time to build a factory, and I anticipate Europe will work past its energy problems. Energy costs might still be rather high, but then there are the benefits of local production. Tesla has market potential that might support European expansion beyond Brandenburg.
- A plant in Mexico to build the upcoming smaller vehicle and CT Jr's for Mercosur might be worthwhile.

Noes:
- There is too much geopolitical risk in China for expansion beyond Shanghai, unless they get very favorable terms that avoid risk for capital.
- We need the US plants to build CT and Semi, but Elon might have poisoned the market for other vehicles beyond the final, expanded capacity of Austin and Fremont.
- India needs the smaller vehicle but it's a political mess.

It makes sense to me for Tesla to focus on storage, Optimus and FSD, but not vehicle plants that might not work out.

All IMHO.

 

[Drumheller]

Something I've been wondering for a while now: With $20B in cash, what's the holdup for announcing and building the next gigafactory?
Sure, Berlin and Texas are still ramping. It seems like that's going fine. So shouldn't this capital be used for something useful? Why not move as fast as possible?

A few days ago, there was an interaction between a govt official in Italy and Elon. I didn't save the link but it caught my curiosity and I expected to see discussion in this thread about it. That didn't happen.

One month later, I'm making the same poll, please vote!

What will TSLA Share Price be on January 1st, 2023?

Spoiler: Results from one month ago

View attachment 876421

I was the sole < $200 vote last time. I still hold that view, even though I think it is way under valued.

 

[Max Plaid]

I am sipping hopium for a TSLA recovery with potential positives on the horizon

Tesla P&D exceeds lowered expectations

Strong earnings report and positive guidance

Confident in financial position and outlook, Tesla announces stock buyback

Positive Tesla semi delivery start/news

Elon anoints trusted leadership to his other venture and returns his focus to Tesla

His other venture stabilizes, reducing risk of requiring his further TSLA sales

Current social media drama blows over and becomes yesterday’s news

Fed steps back, raises by 50 bips and gives less hawkish guidance

Inflation situation continues better trend

V11 FSD broadly released and pleases customers, analysts, and the press

China relaxes Covid restrictions, easing supply chain issues and boosting economy

If some of these come to pass and no more F$£#! black swans appear for a while we could recover nicely.

I wanted the stock to 10x again, but not this way …. Not this way

TBH, most of these have a reasonable probability of happening, with the exception of V11 FSD pleasing the press - given that Elon is now a competitor in the advertising revenue space, they're going to double-down on the FUD, IMO

Other potential positives can be a reduction in geo-political tensions, already seems to me that the the rhetoric of China/Taiwan has defused somewhat, helped by the Biden/Xi meeting, plus it looks to me like Putin's war is fizzling out a bit, so I'm hopeful there'll be some kind of cease-fire and talks - Ukraine's heroic retaking of Kherson was a seismic shift and reduced Russia to slinging missiles from across the border. Seems to me that it's already over, but Russia/Putin are looking for a way out while saving face

Seems like inflation peaked, layoffs have begun across the board, housing market is cooling, and yet supply-chain issues have eased considerably. If the FED want a "soft landing" then now is the time to whisper sweet-nothings into the market's ear...

 

[aubreymcfato]

A few days ago, there was an interaction between a govt official in Italy and Elon. I didn't save the link but it caught my curiosity and I expected to see discussion in this thread about it. That didn't happen.

I wouldn't read much into it. Salvini has been around for decades but it's not the smartest tool in the shed, politically-wise (I despise all his politics, tbh, but he's not really good in the Parliament at actually making the laws he wants).
Quite good at marketing himself tho.

 

[Paul_SF]

A few days ago, there was an interaction between a govt official in Italy and Elon. I didn't save the link but it caught my curiosity and I expected to see discussion in this thread about it. That didn't happen.

Probably a GigaMilano would make sense.

 

[printf42]

This NACS (Tesla as the North American Standard) connector topic has been under-appreciated in my opinion.
I work in a not-for-profit that creates and maintains standards - really giant documents that lay out in precise technical detail the way technology products must be built. (We were/are funded by large mutually-competing companies that realized the need for a common level of tech - a playing field on which to compete. Makes for interesting politics but has worked for a couple decades so far).
To achieve one's own existing tech implementation as The Standard is the goal of all these companies, and the extent (often incomplete) to which they achieve it directly means major market share - along with smaller but nonzero benefits like less engineering/refit/compatibility headaches with whatever other chimeric beast might have become The Standard.
For Tesla to propose their connector as The North American Standard, as they have done, along with evidence of majority adoption and strong technical arguments for its superiority is a major assertion of market dominance - the likes of which we have not seen from a company that lacks a PR department. This could be considered the engineering equivalent of a public media blitz.

TL;DR Tesla is letting their brass balls swing, bright and shiny for all to see, with this proposal. The Big Dog, perhaps muzzled for quite some time, seems to have found a way to Bark.

*ACTION REQUIRED*
Your “antitrust and compliance” training is overdue.

Quick reminder:

• Tesla doesn’t compete in EV market, it competes in few segments of global transportation, energy, IT, labor markets.
• In each market segment, Tesla faces strong competition from competitors with greater segment coverage
• Customers had been offered lager than ever choices, and there is no dominance happening in any market Tesla participating.

 

[Rarity]

【Nov.18.2022】Update CATL Shanghai | WuWa on Youtube

An 80GWh/yr supply of LFP bat's is imminent. Will Tesla break ground on the Model 2 Factory this year?

Cheers to the Longs!

I take a look at that and, while impressive, general industrial use of the seashore seems like an incredible waste to me.

 

[larmor]

A few days ago, there was an interaction between a govt official in Italy and Elon. I didn't save the link but it caught my curiosity and I expected to see discussion in this thread about it. That didn't happen.



I was the sole < $200 vote last time. I still hold that view, even though I think it is way under valued.

Maybe collaboration with Ferrari on roadster project because otherwise it’s looking at least 3 to 4 years out With semi becoming really important product and cyber truck

 

[Singuy]

Ohh my. Apple music now added to latest software update!

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594397050673635330

 

[2daMoon]

Some folks who are looking at the trend are seeing a potential for as much as a 10x launch of the SP, based upon interpretation of similar patterns over TSLA's past. Not me.

Being someone completely unmotivated by greed and unrealistic expectations I'd be more than willing to settle for a measly 3x, doncha know. Maybe even with it happening as far out as, say, the end of the year.

No rush.

Santa, are you listening?

 

[ZeApelido]

Dare I post some positive projections about Tesla from Twitter.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594388678344073216

 

[Captkerosene]

What would they build beyond announced plans? Lots of potential for storage that requires more factories, including cells, Megapacks, and home storage. But in vehicles:

Yesses:
- Right now energy is a problem in Europe, but it takes time to build a factory, and I anticipate Europe will work past its energy problems. Energy costs might still be rather high, but then there are the benefits of local production. Tesla has market potential that might support European expansion beyond Brandenburg.
- A plant in Mexico to build the upcoming smaller vehicle and CT Jr's for Mercosur might be worthwhile.

Noes:
- There is too much geopolitical risk in China for expansion beyond Shanghai, unless they get very favorable terms that avoid risk for capital.
- We need the US plants to build CT and Semi, but Elon might have poisoned the market for other vehicles beyond the final, expanded capacity of Austin and Fremont.
- India needs the smaller vehicle but it's a political mess.

It makes sense to me for Tesla to focus on storage, Optimus and FSD, but not vehicle plants that might not work out.

All IMHO.

I disagree. The market is wide open to expansion in all markets for Tesla. Big semi, smaller delivery truck, delivery truck, van, big (cheaper) SUV, affordable compact, CT jr, Cyber mini, "normal" pickup truck (that'd kill F and GM), Roadster, Roadster SUV, Jeepy/Bronco thingy etc. That's why I'm a little concerned that demand is softening (extremely strong to very strong) but not worried about reaching huge volumes over time.

Also, we need vehicle deliveries to sell our high margin software.

 

[Sancho]

Yup dinner at a fancy french restaurant after the Rugby match in Edinburgh, 8 highly educated and successful friends catching up first time in ages. The EM conversation was quick to come up and the consensus was what the clickbait would suggest. Not the first time I have been in this place, the silly thing is they know my track record, but still mock me as an eternal "early adopter" without any reflection on what that means and has always meant. None have any clue to the scale of ambition and delivery of Tesla and X and how the path is set.

Really, rugby players go to a fancy French restaurant after their match?

 

[ktrivedi70]

The last thing I want to see when I get my CT is another one driving down the road with a Q/Trump flag, ick.

The last thing I want to see is the fossil fuel industry to continue to control the world. But I guess a flag is just as important.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Some folks who are looking at the trend are seeing a potential for as much as a 10x launch of the SP, based upon interpretation of similar patterns over TSLA's past. Not me.

Being someone completely unmotivated by greed and unrealistic expectations I'd be more than willing to settle for a measly 3x, doncha know. Maybe even with it happening as far out as, say, the end of the year.

No rush.

Santa, are you listening?

I will repeat it again, all my kids want for Christmas is $270

 

[Big Time]

Took a ride in the Las Vegas Loop boring tunnel this weekend! Very cool.
First ride in the Y. Very nice

 

[MC3OZ]

Really, rugby players go to a fancy French restaurant after their match?

Scottish Rugby players are good at going to fancy resturants, that compensates for their lack of Rugby playing ability ☺

 

[jerry33]

Some folks who are looking at the trend are seeing a potential for as much as a 10x launch of the SP, based upon interpretation of similar patterns over TSLA's past.

10X would be a good start.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I am leaving TMC alone for a while to work on writing blog posts.

When we can be grownups and apply the self-discipline to put low-value, circular political and Twitter discussions where they belong then I’ll come back. The signal to noise ratio of this thread has steeply declined in recent weeks due to this behavior and reading it has become less valuable.

Don't let the trolls win so easily.