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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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My overwhelming belief is that Wall St is very aware of how the dynamics change starting Jan 1st for Tesla with the IRA. It's an instant price cut for the Y and some of the 3 variants that will bolster Tesla's US demand while giving Tesla a ton of direct credits for battery module/cell production. The numbers are truly staggering as to how much the IRA will instantly boost Tesla's bottom line and margins, giving Tesla leeway to lower prices across the world while keeping margins consistent at 30-32%.
So the goal has always been driving TSLA lower every day as much as possible before this event happens, data be damned......investors set a very clear floor for valuation. We still haven't gotten to that valuation where it's defended with high volume consistently and won't break. We've seen practically every short FUD trick in the book this quarter as well as what I consider to be a China demand rumor initiated by those shorting Tesla to make it even weaker to push down.
Not sure where that valuation will be but the clock is ticking on Wall St. T-Minus 27 days now until day of reckoning for both bulls and bears. One is going to be very right and the other very wrong. As we get more data from China on a weekly basis, the realities of just what is happening over there and with Shanghai are starting to show that the China demand rumor was in fact planted.
If Tesla did indeed have the struggles locally in China that the rumors were saying, all production for the past 2-3 weeks would have been going entirely to exports.
Eh, we all know long term TSLA is going much higher than our ATH of $415. This short term freefall is due to a lot of factors (MM's, FUD, macros, war, etc) but in the long run Tesla is a hugely successful company growing at an astounding pace in multiple market segments, and anyone who has done the math knows the financials get massively better over the next few years.
It's depressing to see the stock so low, but then most stocks are way down right now too, so it's not very surprising upon contemplation. We go up from here, and while it might happen in January or it might happen in a year or two, financial math dictates we ARE going up massively eventually.
I only wish I had the money to buy more shares at this crazy low price. I'm seriously considering dipping into a small bit of margin, the opportunity is just too good.
Carl Raymond
Active Member
Bought a few at 170. I don’t need them. Already have enough to see myself through retirement. But since they’re giving them away.
Well I did it. I for years now have not used margin or bought many options. But today I bought some February calls. More than I have ever before. I can afford to lose it, but I don’t normally play this game.
I still love it. I just won't be able to keep mine if things don't turn around before it ships!Pour a drink for my poor unloved Tesla Roadster 2 which no one apparently cares about anymore
Cult Member
Born on the 4th of July
Don't cry. The 'totally different drive system' could be your SpaceX package, what else?Pour a drink for my poor unloved Tesla Roadster 2 which no one apparently cares about anymore
This is wild
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techcrunch.com
More than anything, I find this quarter to be fascinating.
As I've mentioned in a few posts over the past weeks/months, I can't find another example out there where a company's Forward P/E is lower than their most recent earnings growth rate........where even by analysts' consensus, the present quarters earnings will be up 2X the Forward P/E.
I'll repeat, never seen anything like this without a company giving some sort of guidance revisions/warning that growth completely stall or go negative for the foreseeable future. Tesla just a month ago gave guidance of just under 50% delivery growth. Wall isn't just saying they expect growth/earnings to slow down, they are essentially saying "We think Tesla's earnings growth has peaked completely and will only grow mid to upper single digits annually for the next 5 years."
The gap between fundamentals/metrics and TSLA's valuation, to me at least, are way beyond what we experience in 2019. Which is why Q4 will be so pivotal. If Tesla can just get one full smooth quarter of production out of Shanghai + Berlin/Austin ramp continuing smoothly, I think Tesla will shock Wall St with gross margins and fully demonstrate it's operational leverage.
I continue to believe that the combination of Q4 + Q1 (which will have the full effects of the IRA on display in earnings) will result in TSLA being back to its' all-time high. If FSD wide release happens in either Q4 or Q1 and recognized in earnings, I think it will break it's ATM in a significant way
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I agree the gap between fundamentals and share price are more drastic today than in 2019. Back then Tesla's future was still an unknown, today it's near certain Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world this decade. In 2019 profitability wasn't a guarantee, today it's not only certain it's overwhelmingly positive.
I disagree this Q4 is so pivotal. It's just another quarter along the march to tens of millions of cars per year production. Even if Q4 comes in under expectations, Q1 2023 will still be a new record quarter, and likely every subsequent quarter in 2023. Personally I feel Troy's delivery expectations will be close to the mark, in fact I think James Stephenson's 420,000 delivered for Q4 will be very close to the mark. Q1 2023 will still be more, so Q4 doesn't feel very pivotal to me, it's just another new record quarter.
Agree. The other important thing is the attention will invariably turn to what is going to happen in 2023 (deliveries / margins etc.,) one we are through Q4. This will be regardless of where Q4 generally comes in.I agree the gap between fundamentals and share price are more drastic today than in 2019. Back then Tesla's future was still an unknown, today it's near certain Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world this decade. In 2019 profitability wasn't a guarantee, today it's not only certain it's overwhelmingly positive.
I disagree this Q4 is so pivotal. It's just another quarter along the march to tens of millions of cars per year production. Even if Q4 comes in under expectations, Q1 2023 will still be a new record quarter, and likely every subsequent quarter in 2023. Personally I feel Troy's delivery expectations will be close to the mark, in fact I think James Stephenson's 420,000 delivered for Q4 will be very close to the mark. Q1 2023 will still be more, so Q4 doesn't feel very pivotal to me, it's just another new record quarter.
Does anyone have Martin Viecha's analyst consensus numbers? I vaguely remember this having 2023 analyst projections, but can seem to find it on the IR site or on his twitter.
larmor
Active Member
Yes huge difference b/w now and 2019. Most risk is gone now and even production numbers are not important but more important is production rate aka run rate. That is why it was attacked here on TMC recently. Actual production is susceptible to variabilities in local and global staffing, parts, and delivery issues to and from the factory. But the actual factory(s) producing at a higher rate is a big key to monitor. Lucid, rivian, polestar, bolt, id etron whatever, but how will they fill their orders. Are there new factories? How fast are they producing cars.I agree the gap between fundamentals and share price are more drastic today than in 2019. Back then Tesla's future was still an unknown, today it's near certain Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world this decade. In 2019 profitability wasn't a guarantee, today it's not only certain it's overwhelmingly positive.
I disagree this Q4 is so pivotal. It's just another quarter along the march to tens of millions of cars per year production. Even if Q4 comes in under expectations, Q1 2023 will still be a new record quarter, and likely every subsequent quarter in 2023. Personally I feel Troy's delivery expectations will be close to the mark, in fact I think James Stephenson's 420,000 delivered for Q4 will be very close to the mark. Q1 2023 will still be more, so Q4 doesn't feel very pivotal to me, it's just another new record quarter.
I do feel that Elon's behavior is weight on the stock. People are feeling that he is causing brand destruction.
Now with that out of the way I also feel that analysts are thinking that a recession is coming and that lets say car sales drop 20% in 2023. Well they feel it will be felt the same way across both EV and ICE cars. I simply disagree with that. I feel that if a recession hits and car sales are hit the bulk of it will be ICE sales. Since EVs are still in the ramp up phase that the sales will simply still happen.
2023 will have Semi and CT ...
So far at least, the data does not agree with Troy or James's numbersI agree the gap between fundamentals and share price are more drastic today than in 2019. Back then Tesla's future was still an unknown, today it's near certain Tesla will become the most valuable company in the world this decade. In 2019 profitability wasn't a guarantee, today it's not only certain it's overwhelmingly positive.
I disagree this Q4 is so pivotal. It's just another quarter along the march to tens of millions of cars per year production. Even if Q4 comes in under expectations, Q1 2023 will still be a new record quarter, and likely every subsequent quarter in 2023. Personally I feel Troy's delivery expectations will be close to the mark, in fact I think James Stephenson's 420,000 delivered for Q4 will be very close to the mark. Q1 2023 will still be more, so Q4 doesn't feel very pivotal to me, it's just another new record quarter.
- Berlin production and deliveries tracking for way higher than Troy's numbers.
- Shanghai deliveries are WAY ahead of Troy's numbers. His latest was 104k deliveries for China.....Tesla is already at 56k, will be at 70k before Dec begins. So you really expect Tesla to only sell 30k in Dec? Sure ok
- Shanghai production is trending above his estimates - 87k in Oct, seems to be on track of 90-92k in Nov, 92k in Dec (270k total)
-No registration data to confirm, but anecdotal evidence of Austin factory + Tesla's own words about production rates says that Austin production/deliveries will be materially higher than Troy's estimates.
But sure, keep sourcing Troy
But again, one of the main reasons Q4 will be pivotal is that it's on track to be first quarter of smooth production/deliveries since Q1 + Berlin/Austin will be at volume levels where they aren't dragging on gross margin/operation margin. Yes Berlin/Austin achieved positive gross margins in Q3, but they were still a dragging down total gross margin average considerably and were especially hard on operating margin.
The effects of Shanghai downtime on gross margin and operation margin have been completely missing. No one....even Tesla bulls are acknowledging that Shanghai downtime in Q2 and Q3 were hits to gross margin and operating margin. Gee.....I wonder what happens when Shanghai has a full quarter of smooth production????
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Took delivery of Wife's M3 yesterday. Tesla delivery guy was super nice, dropped off the car and we chatted for a bit. Told me that a standard range 4680 Model Y is due for release next year from Austin and everything is going real well in Austin so far.
Turns out, Tesla was insanely smart with how they approached 4680 deployment in production. Most people wondered why they would use 4680's for mid-range and not performance. With the IRA in effect, Tesla's gets credits for cell production AND module production. Spreading 4680's across more lower range vehicles and thus more battery modules, means more credits for Tesla than they would have gotten with fewer vehicles with higher range.
The advanced manufacturing credits are based on kWh not packs produced so how does that help?
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