Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paracelsus]

I do feel that Elon's behavior is weight on the stock. People are feeling that he is causing brand destruction.

Now with that out of the way………

That’s great news. Thanks for getting that ‘out of the way’ @thx1139 - It will be awesome not seeing you post that on every page of two different threads from now on.

 

[Tachyon]

I kinda am amazed at TSLA’s consistency.
No matter which way the market moves, TSLA always remains red. It’s the founder’s edition signature red .

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

We just had the best insurance registrations for China . . . ever. Sales are tracking out in China to be potentially a record for both LOCAL sales and EXPORTS.

Data doesn't matter cause Troy said....

The interesting part about getting the weekly registration data is that we can see Tesla is in fact handling Q4 like an unwinding of the wave. They must not be very concerned about Dec sales in China because why on earth would they be selling 13-14k weekly in China that could go on exports? There would be plenty of time to export more to say Australia or Japan, maybe even southern Europe over the past 2 weeks and yet Tesla seems to be doing a near even split when it coems to production. Sure, there will still be a trend towards more local deliveries in Dec but it seems clear that we'll probably see something like a split of 15k, 17k, 19k, 20k for Dec for local deliveries while they still export anywhere from 30-40k vehicles.

Some are, for sure. Seen this first hand with my BIL (but then he turned around 2 days later and bought a CPO that came off lease, lol).

But what it is doing is giving everyone that knows they won't qualify for the credit a legit reason to "jump the line".

The income restrictions on the IRA mean that there are still a LOT of people in the upper middle class that don't qualify for the tax credit, know this, and will happily take delivery now.

I give it a decent chance that we see a price hike for the Model Y when the official guidelines are issued sometime in Dec. I doubt it will be a big price hike, maybe like 2-3k, but they'll likely do a small incentive for people to take delivery by end of the year in combination with that price hike.

 

[tslagreen]

No doubt TSLA heading for that strong support at $150 with the 50 SMA. It hurt, but I was out at $230 and will catch it on the way back up (a month perhaps?). In the meantime, a shiny penny stock US Critical Metals (USCMF) has absorbed a chunk of my TSLA holdings and is up 47.37% over one month. Risky, but fun.

First China demand dropped. Tesla China stores closed largely due to competition. Now, US delivery times have dropped 40-60% on most models. Some would say it's not related to the demand or Musk mouth, but to more efficient factories. Time will tell.

Don't like the sentiment, but I welcome differing viewpoints. Everybody laughed at Chicken Boy and unfortunately he was right (or lucky, or both). Nevertheless, I have never sold a share of TSLA and have no intention to for several years.

 

[Xepa777]

Don't like the sentiment, but I welcome differing viewpoints. Everybody laughed at Chicken Boy and unfortunately he was right (or lucky, or both). Nevertheless, I have never sold a share of TSLA and have no intention to for several years.

He had Tesla at $120. He was not right at all. And he shorted Tesla. If you’re in this just to make money then you lose respect and might as well invest in a private prison. I’m a believer in investing in a world you want to see your children live in. If you’re actively damaging that then congrats you’re a piece of *sugar*.

 

[traxila]

No doubt TSLA heading for that strong support at $150 with the 50 SMA. It hurt, but I was out at $230 and will catch it on the way back up (a month perhaps?). In the meantime, a shiny penny stock US Critical Metals (USCMF) has absorbed a chunk of my TSLA holdings and is up 47.37% over one month. Risky, but fun.

First China demand dropped. Tesla China stores closed largely due to competition. Now, US delivery times have dropped 40-60% on most models. Some would say it's not related to the demand or Musk mouth, but to more efficient factories. Time will tell.

You are back with misinformation and pumping another stock.

Think I will short this one as well.

Ignore works for me.

 

[UkNorthampton]

Chip-excuses, UK EV/Tesla demand vs ICE (using discounts to compare).

TLDR: EV discounts much lower than ICE. Seemingly more ICE supply - Toyota discounting.

Tesla-related - EV demand strong. As long as Tesla can keep up supply, they should have high demand in the UK.

1) Fully Charged Show (youtube) - Bobby/Jack talking. Jack mentioned he's been told by many senior people at various brands that chip shortages are almost over. Reinforced by lower wait times for many ICE cars but also Chinese EVs such as Funky Ora Cat

2) I get a dealer-discount email with many different brands on it. There are many ICE but only a few EVs on that discounted list. All first-sale cars.

First-time ever - many Toyotas are discounted! Normally just 0 or 1 per email, 0 being more common

VW Group brands have
EV: 5% discount (ID3, ID4, Cupra Born)
ICE: 10-17.5% discounts (Passat is 19.5%) - I wonder if less demand for ICE or new VW Management want to push ICE sales.

Biggest EV discounts are for Renault Zoe (14%) & Nissan Leaf (13.5%). Zoe's safety rating went down in latest version/test and I guess the Leaf isn't compelling?

Spoiler: Picture-Partial-List

 

[tslagreen]

He had Tesla at $120. He was not right at all. And he shorted Tesla. If you’re in this just to make money then you lose respect and might as well invest in a private prison. I’m a believer in investing in a world you want to see your children live in. If you’re actively damaging that then congrats you’re a piece of *sugar*.

I don't short by the way - Tsla or any other company. From a capitalistic point of view, however, shorts provide a valid function for healthy markets.
Cue: "We are the world."

 

[Dikkie Dik]

Norway MIG vin tracker

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595110523410214912

Hasn’t moved much, still above Troy’s estimate. I guess that means the third shift is not there yet.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Norway MIG vin tracker

https://twitter.com/x/status/1595110523410214912

Hasn’t moved much, still above Troy’s estimate. I guess that means the third shift is not there yet.

Last I heard, the goal of getting to 5k/week is not dependent on a third shift.

 

[Artful Dodger]

After weeks of doom and gloom …. I’m sensing some FOMO on this thread

FOMC meeting tomorrow 2pm ... Hold your horses

Yeah, there is no FOMC meeting tomorrow. 2 pm is the scheduled release of the FOMC Minutes for the past meeting held on Nov 1-2, 2022:

Federal Reserve Board - Calendar​

And Darth Powell will not be speaking tomorrow:

Federal Reserve Board - Speeches of Federal Reserve Officials​

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm fearful...

Yup, Mission Accomplished. (See above).

 

[Artful Dodger]

Anybody know what "news" triggered the 9am selloff that wiped out all premarket gains in a matter of minutes ?

Fear and Greed.

 

[Gigapress]

Last I heard, the goal of getting to 5k/week is not dependent on a third shift.

I wasn't aware of that. What's the source?

 

[elasalle]

Yeah, there is no FOMC meeting tomorrow. 2 pm is the scheduled release of the FOMC Minutes for the past meeting held on Nov 1-2, 2022:

Federal Reserve Board - Calendar​

And Darth Powell will not be speaking tomorrow:

Federal Reserve Board - Speeches of Federal Reserve Officials​

some in markets still angsty about fomc minutes. click to listen at selected timestamp.
if no surprises, we should get a turkey run, or a santa rally

VIX is down 4%, so I guess markets already discounting any surprises. cheers!!

 

[Artful Dodger]

We’ve speculated on “key man risk” before. Maybe we’ve seen it.

We’ve speculated on “Play the Man, Not the Ball” for years. We’re seeing it.

Cheers to the Longs!

 

[Mengy]

battle of 170 feels like battle of 300

 

[thesmokingman]

Oh oh.... +1%.

 

[MountainRatMat]

He had Tesla at $120. He was not right at all. And he shorted Tesla. If you’re in this just to make money then you lose respect and might as well invest in a private prison. I’m a believer in investing in a world you want to see your children live in. If you’re actively damaging that then congrats you’re a piece of *sugar*.

Maybe an unpopular opinion but I don't agree with this statement at all.

Do I want a better world for my child? Yes
Do I want to see Tesla succeed? Yes
Do I think Tesla is doing overall good for society? Yes

Do I only invest in Tesla to make money? 99% Yes, the other 1% is because I believe in Tesla's mission.

I can tell you I sure don't invest in Tesla to lose money. The main reason I invest in $TSLA is to make money. If I was doing it for the good of the world I would sell all my stock, buy multiple SR Model 3's, and give them to families in need.

I don't think I'm a bad person for wanting to make money. I also do a lot of altruistic good for this world as well but when I buy $TSLA the goal is to make money.

 

[Rarity]

It looks like Hardware 4 will use the TSMC cutting edge 4/5 nm process, rather than the 7 nm process previously rumored.

This should allow a smaller chip with modest performance increase OR similar size chip with double the performance OR a bit larger chip with more than double performance, as compared with the 7nm process. Compared to Harware 3 it looks like Hardware 4 will be 5-10 times more powerful. Most of the gains will come from more processing units, although I would expect there to be minor architecture improvements as well.

This is major news.

Harware 4 cameras use four times the number of pixels as Hardware 3, so some performance is lost processing the extra pixels (but not 4x as only the NN layers near the input are affected by pixel count). So a single 4/5 nmm chip will be 2-3 times more powerful than the two chips on Hardware 3 combined. This allows larger NN and dual redundancy or much larger NN without redundancy.

It seems to me that Hardware 4 will be more than sufficient to run the NN for Level 5 FSD and Robotaxi.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1594548181765083137

Is this really a strategy shift for Tesla? Normally, Tesla puts its chips into production on technology nodes that are one behind the state-of-the art. TSMC web site suggests that its 5nm technology node went into production in mid-2020 and therefore 2023 would seem again to be one node behind the state of the art. Admittedly, if they are on the 4nm technology node, that would probably be at or near the state-of-the art in 2023.

TSMC’s 5nm (N5) Fin Field-Effect Transistor (FinFET) technology successfully entered volume production in the second quarter of 2020 and experienced a strong ramp in the second half of 2020.

TSMC’s N5 technology is TSMC’s second available EUV process technology, to enable our customers’ innovations for both smartphone and HPC applications. As the foundry industry’s most advanced solution with the best performance, power and area (PPA), N5 technology provides about 20% faster speed than N7 technology or about 40% power reduction. N5 technology further expands our customer product portfolio and increases our addressable markets.

In addition, TSMC plans to launch 4nm (N4) technology, an enhanced version of N5 technology. N4 provides further enhancement in performance, power and density for the next wave of N5 products. The development of N4 technology is on schedule with good progress, and volume production is expected to start in 2022.