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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I think there is a small niche that Lucid has carved out, "high end EV that is not a Tesla".

There is room in the market for all, but I wonder if Lucid is making money on each car, how much cash they are burning, and how much debt they are accumulating,

The really hard thing Tesla did was "Production Hell" and the Model 3 ramp. What Lucid is doing now isn't very good preparation for tackling that kind of challenge.,

It is very interesting to crunch the numbers on how much capital Tesla raised, how much debt they had prior to the Model 3 ramp and compare that to their cash and debt position now.

If Lucid was going to attempt something like the Model 3 ramp, there is a lot more competition, including competition from Tesla. It may be harder to raise capital or take o n debt at good prices. The Lucid needs to attract the staff, source the parts, raw materials and machinery, at a time when many other car companies are attempting to do the same thing.

Could Lucid make their niche "high end EV that is not a Tesla" work?

IMO what they need is clarity of vision, and sticking to their core products and their core market. The ship has sailed on mass market EVs for now, Don't chase the wrong dream at the wrong time. Keep a tight focus and do one thing exceptionally well, stay at the "high end".
If Porsche Taycan serves as an example, it is obvious that there is a very healthy market for a non-Tesla very expensive car. There are several others introduction now and more coming soon from Ferrari, Maserati, plus the Rimac brands. The only question is whether there is a profitable niche for Lucid. The jury is out, but early indications are not seeming good for Lucid, Fisker and their ilk, any more than they were for Delorean, Bricklin or the others back to Kaiser and Frazer. Their common traits were good publicity, absence of technological superiority and, in every case, unexceptional engineering talent applied to manufacturing. Kaiser, if anyone, should have been able to achieve success but they were imitators, not innovators.

Every time we see a "Tesla competitor" just examine their engineering talent applied to production. Then look at the efficiency of their designs. In that context, look at the teardown of such successes as the Ford F150 electric, Chevrolet Bolt or any other such example.

Until someone shows serious manufacturing excellence and design efficiency we will not have convincing competition...except for the stratospherically expensive ones.

Lucid, Rivian, GM, Ford all cannot become profitable for BEV's until and unless they learn to design and build for efficiency and manufacturing.

I suggest there conceivably could be an exception among those that use suppliers such as Magna, which has developed EV specific platforms. Maybe, just maybe, they could help break the pattern of failure among their customers which make BEV models.
 
If only I had known this back in 2018 so I could have sold my shares at that time!

I'm beginning to feel like I might be an ignorant fool because I'm not seeing the problem with margin. I'm afraid I'm the guy at the card table who can't spot the sucker.

I have 2600 TSLA shares in my brokerage account. 200 of them were bought on margin at an average price of about 210. I feel perfectly comfortable with this and the only concern I have is when I read all your posts warning against margin. Is there something I'm missing? I don't feel like I have any realistic risk of getting Called, am I wrong on that?
200 at this price out of your 2600 share stack should be okay down to a very low share price. The problem is that every time this works, it gets easier and easier to overdo it.
At the worst possible time, you will go too deep into margin and get chewed up by the market.
 
Both Rivian and Lucid has no chance and I'm sticking to this.

A good example of a company that stand a chance is Polestar. Manufacturing in China, has 2641 employees, and managed to pump out their 100k car while hitting profitability.

Rivian has like 14k employees making a fraction of the cars in the U.S. The distance between all these crazy wasteful U.S EV startups and Polestar is not even on the same planet.

I'm not a polestar shareholder so I'm not shilling for them here, but their cost structure is more Tesla like when Tesla was young than the U.S ev startups that's for sure.
I disagreed with you because Polestar is actually Geely repackaging the architecture they use for Volvo, Geely and Lynk brands making yet other brands to offer publicly, in large part to help fund their transition to all BEV. I want them to succeed and even own one of their products, but having Polestar as a brand is rather like it would be if Tesla were to brand Texas, Germany and Chinese Model Y as different brands. After all those three do have some significant differences.

After all Volvo XC40, Polestar 2 plus Geely and Lynk & Co models all share the identical Android/Google systems. The entire Polestar 2 is built on the same assembly line as the Volvo XC40 in Belgium. There are minor aesthetic differences.

In sum Polestar is badge-engineered Volvo/Geely, and little more. Just as there are GMC vs Chevrolet aficionados there probably already are Polestar vs Volvo. Without question those clever 'secretive' Polestar stores are distinctive. Otherwise they are Volvos,
 
Thought I would share something I found. The state of California is working very hard to modernize and help the small trucking fleet owner: https://static.business.ca.gov/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CA-Trucking-Incentive-Guide.pdf

Due to these incentives, I don’t think you will see many Semi’s sold outside of California for the next couple of years.

It would also make perfect sense for Tesla to create some kind of solution that uses the Semi for all Tesla deliveries in the state. There were approximately 25,000 car hauler trips to Tesla delivery centers this year in California alone. Using the Semi to do that would save a tremendous amount of expense.
 
I'm beginning to feel like I might be an ignorant fool because I'm not seeing the problem with margin. I'm afraid I'm the guy at the card table who can't spot the sucker.

I have 2600 TSLA shares in my brokerage account. 200 of them were bought on margin at an average price of about 210. I feel perfectly comfortable with this and the only concern I have is when I read all your posts warning against margin. Is there something I'm missing? I don't feel like I have any realistic risk of getting Called, am I wrong on that?
As @chiller just said, it is all about perspective. When I was first taught about the risk of margin my colleague compared margin with heroin, "the first time usually leads to more, then soon only too much is enough". That sentiment might be overdone.

For the record I do have margin available, on very good terms, and I use it from time to time. Recently I used margin to make a tax payment in order to avoid large capital gains taxes. That is something I do from time to time as part of tax planning. I do not ever use margin for another purpose.

I did do so years ago. Never again.
 
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It's funny how they do not name the "member" of CNBC's halftime report.
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Yes, FSD beta is now truly widely-available w/o a safety score. I submitted my request to join the beta program back during the Summer, and FSD beta just became available for me tonight. I downloaded and installed the v10.69.3.1 then immediately spent 5 hours driving it.

So now I have a few questions about the controls and settings for FSD beta, and some initial comments about its manner and style. Could some kind soul please provide a link to the best TMC forum for this type of discussion? TIA. 👐


Cheers to the Longs!
Not sure if the best but:
FSD Beta 10.69

Within Investing circles:
FSD discussion
 
I dunno, seems to me that a comment to the effect that "Any currency not backed by a standing army is bound to lose out when push comes to shove" is so obviously incontrovertible that it’s hardly investment advice and more like observing that "The Sun will rise in the East in the morning."

Then again, I have a simplistic view of everything (at least whenever possible 😉).
Eh, FWIW, I don't think the Swiss Franc is in any trouble... :)
 
Has anyone run the numbers on what the P/E ratio will look like with the likely extra ~$1Bn? SP at 50 P/E ratio on 1st Feb?
@The Accountant posted this on twitter:

Current P/E: 56.5
Q4 P/E (w/ ~consensus GAAP of $1.20): 48.7
Q4 P/E (w/ ~consensus GAAP + deferred rev recognition of $0.26): 45.6

Using the earnings from the last calculation, a 50 P/E would be $201/share

(Updated to use $1.20 as approx GAAP consensus earnings. It's hard because analyst estimates are primarily non-GAAP, but P/E uses GAAP)
 
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I'm beginning to feel like I might be an ignorant fool because I'm not seeing the problem with margin. I'm afraid I'm the guy at the card table who can't spot the sucker.

I have 2600 TSLA shares in my brokerage account. 200 of them were bought on margin at an average price of about 210. I feel perfectly comfortable with this and the only concern I have is when I read all your posts warning against margin. Is there something I'm missing? I don't feel like I have any realistic risk of getting Called, am I wrong on that?

Like @unk45 I have used margin for cash on occasion, and limit what I use to 25% of what is available, despite what the broker allows. This has worked out well, so far. I also have shares with another broker that I could transfer to bolster that, if it looked like it were getting close to being called.

There are enough people who have shared their bad experiences with margin to convince me to tread lightly and remain wary and attentive, while avoiding putting myself in a position where a big drop in SP would trigger loss of shares.
 
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