Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[2daMoon]

There's this tweet too:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1600439088560996353

So, Elon IS the Quizat Haderach? (necessary Mod intervention: "Kwisatz" is how Frank Herbert spelled it. No idea how it's spelled when translated to other languages. I've not read Dune for 35 years or so.....)
It is all making sense to me now...

Would that mean that FUD is the Gom Jabbar?
(it certainly seems to generate a great deal of imaginary pain)

 

[Chenkers]

One possibility I haven't seen discussed much with all these 20% cut and shutdown Reuters/Bloomberg rumors is the possibility that Tesla may upgrade some production capacity to cater for a new battery chemistry.

Back in August/September there was a lot of reporting on CATL's plans to introduce its new cheaper and longer range M3P battery using LMFP chemistry. At the time it was said that CATL had already started production and was planning to supply the new cells to customers in 2023. Both BYD and Tesla have been rumored to be getting these new batteries, that should reduce cost and increase range compared to current standard range LFP battery models. If there were plans to change some production over to this new chemistry then Tesla would be unlikely to mention it to avoid osborning current sales.

New CATL battery could increase the Tesla Model Y’s range to 430 miles

This is obviosly total speculation and while I take the Reuters rumors with a grain of salt, if there is any substance then further upgrades could be a reason for changes in production.

 

[bkp_duke]

PPI came in at 0.3%, expected 0.2%.

Core PPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.4%, expected 0.2%.

Seeing some drop in the market from this.

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling

The producer price index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago.

www.cnbc.com

 

[larmor]

One possibility I haven't seen discussed much with all these 20% cut and shutdown Reuters/Bloomberg rumors is the possibility that Tesla may upgrade some production capacity to cater for a new battery chemistry.

Back in August/September there was a lot of reporting on CATL's plans to introduce its new cheaper and longer range M3P battery using LMFP chemistry. At the time it was said that CATL had already started production and was planning to supply the new cells to customers in 2023. Both BYD and Tesla have been rumored to be getting these new batteries, that should reduce cost and increase range compared to current standard range LFP battery models. If there were plans to change some production over to this new chemistry then Tesla would be unlikely to mention it to avoid osborning current sales.

New CATL battery could increase the Tesla Model Y’s range to 430 miles

This is obviosly total speculation and while I take the Reuters rumors with a grain of salt, if there is any substance then further upgrades could be a reason for changes in production.

This is plausible based on prior price actions, where incentives were offered, but then there was a significant improvement for the next released version, adding "+", "D", autopilot, FSD hardware, while not all, but definitely a trend. Higher range MY makes sense, for more price, or incentive for current. Also might explain 500 mile range projected for cybertruck-- a heavier car and does not appear to be super aerodynamic and Semi, with fully loaded weight of 80k pounds.

 

[BornToFly]

So it probably turns out that all the "Tesla is shutting down Model Y production because of no demand" FUD, is actually just a normal, scheduled shut down, during the last week of the quarter when cars won't make it to customers anyway, to do line maintenance so they can actually increase production in Q1.

 

[traxila]

PPI came in at 0.3%, expected 0.2%.

Core PPI (excluding food and energy) came in at 0.4%, expected 0.2%.

Seeing some drop in the market from this.

Wholesale prices rose 0.3% in November, more than expected, despite hopes that inflation is cooling

The producer price index, a measure of what companies get for their products in the pipeline, increased 0.3% for the month and 7.4% from a year ago.

www.cnbc.com

‘Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.3% from a month ago and was up 4.9% on an annual basis, the lowest since April 2021.’

The core PPI came in with a 4 handle the lowest in almost two years.

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M02 Results

www.bls.gov

Certainly seems that MM trying to make it sound bad, but the only thing they could point to was ‘expectations’. The trend is down pretty hard.


���

Total	Foods	Energy	Less foods and energy	Total	Trade	Transportation and warehousing	Other
Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12 mo. ago (unadj.)
2021
Nov.	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.8	1.0	1.3	2.8	0.6	9.9	7.0
Dec.	0.6	0.4	-0.1	-0.2	-1.4	0.4	0.9	1.9	1.6	0.3	10.0	7.0
2022
Jan.	1.2	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.1	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.0	0.8	10.1	6.9
Feb.	1.1	0.2	2.2	1.9	7.2	0.8	0.5	1.7	2.0	-0.3	10.4	6.7
Mar.	1.7	1.0	2.4	2.4	6.6	1.1	1.3	2.3	5.6	0.4	11.7	7.1
Apr.	0.5	0.4	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.0	0.1	2.1	-0.2	11.2	6.8
May	0.8	0.5	1.5	0.4	4.8	0.7	0.4	0.6	2.5	0.1	11.1	6.8
June	0.9	0.3	2.2	-0.1	8.9	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.2	11.2	6.4
July(1)	-0.4	0.2	-1.8	1.2	-9.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	-0.5	0.0	9.7	5.8
Aug.(1)	0.0	0.2	-1.0	-0.1	-5.4	0.2	0.5	1.1	-1.1	0.3	8.7	5.6
Sept.(1)	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.2	-0.3	-0.3	0.6	8.5	5.6
Oct.(1)	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	2.3	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.4	0.2	8.1	5.4
Nov.	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.3	-3.3	0.3	0.4	0.7	-0.9	0.4	7.4	4.9

The last two columns show headline and then core PPI. Sorry the cut and paste not working well.

The FED needs to pause for sure. The first hike of 75 is probably represented here, but everything else since then is not, especially the last 125 they have hiked given the 50 we can expect next week.

There was a half point drop in core PPI month over month don’t believe you would want it to go down faster than that.

 

[Drax7]

The statical error in these measurements should make a .o1 difference
Irrelevant .

the mkt might not be happy until we get a negative print.

 

[growler23]

My random Friday thoughts:

The (denied) rumor about a China shutdown has achieved its goal - we are all bending over backwards trying to find a way / point of view in which it might be true - and in so doing, are losing our focus on the ball. Well done Reuters

At times like this I wish we could have a televised team debate between TSLA bulls and TSLAQ.
My dream debate team:
@Gigapress as the main topic introducer + bringer of evidence + good cop + positive voice
@Krugerrand as the bad cop + enforcer + primary poker of holes in opposing point of view
@Knightshade for historical fact checks with a debate-appropriate edge
@The Accountant could perhaps referee and math check, conclusions would be unimpeachable
Moderators would act as relevance filters for arguments - no "whataboutism" permitted, and no mention of the 'other' T word
Most of the rest of us TMCers as Greek Chorus or possibly old-school melodrama audience (we could bring rotten tomatoes)
Unlikely to ever happen ... we all can dream, I guess...

 

[MikeAtkinson]

So it probably turns out that all the "Tesla is shutting down Model Y production because of no demand" FUD, is actually just a normal, scheduled shut down, during the last week of the quarter when cars won't make it to customers anyway, to do line maintenance so they can actually increase production in Q1.

Perhaps, but it would be unusual to have another shutdown for upgrade so soon after the last one.

 

[traxila]

Perhaps, but it would be unusual to have another shutdown for upgrade so soon after the last one.

Just wait for the Reuters article regarding the annual shutdown in January in Fremont.

 

[jerry33]

Perhaps, but it would be unusual to have another shutdown for upgrade so soon after the last one.

More likely reading Chinese New Year as Gregorian New Year because Tesla normally shuts down for Chinese New Year.

 

[nativewolf]

‘Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.3% from a month ago and was up 4.9% on an annual basis, the lowest since April 2021.’

The core PPI came in with a 4 handle the lowest in almost two years.

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M02 Results

www.bls.gov

Certainly seems that MM trying to make it sound bad, but the only thing they could point to was ‘expectations’. The trend is down pretty hard.


���

Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12 mo. ago (unadj.)
Total	Foods	Energy	Less foods and energy	Total	Trade	Transportation and warehousing	Other
2021
Nov.	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.8	1.0	1.3	2.8	0.6	9.9	7.0
Dec.	0.6	0.4	-0.1	-0.2	-1.4	0.4	0.9	1.9	1.6	0.3	10.0	7.0
2022
Jan.	1.2	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.1	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.0	0.8	10.1	6.9
Feb.	1.1	0.2	2.2	1.9	7.2	0.8	0.5	1.7	2.0	-0.3	10.4	6.7
Mar.	1.7	1.0	2.4	2.4	6.6	1.1	1.3	2.3	5.6	0.4	11.7	7.1
Apr.	0.5	0.4	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.0	0.1	2.1	-0.2	11.2	6.8
May	0.8	0.5	1.5	0.4	4.8	0.7	0.4	0.6	2.5	0.1	11.1	6.8
June	0.9	0.3	2.2	-0.1	8.9	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.2	11.2	6.4
July(1)	-0.4	0.2	-1.8	1.2	-9.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	-0.5	0.0	9.7	5.8
Aug.(1)	0.0	0.2	-1.0	-0.1	-5.4	0.2	0.5	1.1	-1.1	0.3	8.7	5.6
Sept.(1)	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.2	-0.3	-0.3	0.6	8.5	5.6
Oct.(1)	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	2.3	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.4	0.2	8.1	5.4
Nov.	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.3	-3.3	0.3	0.4	0.7	-0.9	0.4	7.4	4.9

The last two columns show headline and then core PPI. Sorry the cut and paste not working well.

The FED needs to pause for sure. The first hike of 75 is probably represented here, but everything else since then is not, especially the last 125 they have hiked given the 50 we can expect next week.

There was a half point drop in core PPI month over month don’t believe you would want it to go down faster than that.

In the last week our local gasoline price has dropped another 6%. I think you'll see next months numbers look low. Not advice but as I spend $4000 or more a week on fuels I pay attention.

 

[JustMe]

In the last week our local gasoline price has dropped another 6%. I think you'll see next months numbers look low. Not advice but as I spend $4000 or more a week on fuels I pay attention.

Wow! Maybe you should consider switching to electric vehicles

 

[JupiterMan]

One possibility I haven't seen discussed much with all these 20% cut and shutdown Reuters/Bloomberg rumors is the possibility that Tesla may upgrade some production capacity to cater for a new battery chemistry.

I was thinking similar towards Model 3 / Highland upgrades to the line... but all reports seem to indicate this applies to Model Y......?

 

[unk45]

So, Elon IS the Quizat Haderach?
It is all making sense to me now...

Would that mean that FUD is the Gom Jabbar?
(it certainly seems to generate a great deal of imaginary pain)

The analogy has limits, however appealing...
The pain is very, very real.
I recall from ancient studies (before Elon was born) that much physical disease has psychosomatic origin but still is actual physical disease.
Dealing in derivatives or even margin borrowing does have a quite precise physical analogue in that just like Spice, amphetamines, or crack cocaine, when first 'experimenting' the instant gratification is hugely addictive.
That addiction makes otherwise highly intelligent and well educated people to indulge more and more. Just like the physical addiction the intellectual addiction grows and becomes stronger.
That addiction makes people continue to indulge the addiction despite obvious and irrefutable evidence of the potentially catastrophic consequences.
If all these cases the most intellectually capable addicts generate complex and elegant 'proofs', some of which even result in Nobel Prizes. Especially for those and for highly capable physicians who succumb to drug addiction, they are fully aware of the risks they assume. They then generate elaborate justifications...after which they succumb to entirely self-destructive behavior.

It is very sad to read posts here and elsewhere. Very often people here self-report their dismay about their own errors, but many suggest doubling down on the very source of their dismay. That is addiction, to be frank.

Numerous times in the past years several people have repeatedly warned about this. Of those I personally know, we all once were 'only chipping'. Several of those studied statistical market and individual security prediction methods. at least two of unswore guided by one or more of those giants of Nobel fame.

No matter the tools, one basic problem never leaves. That is known as 'boundary conditions'. What is really means in plain language is that a model built on a given set of data is valid ONLY when actual use is within the identical characteristics as the sample data set.

Think about that, please. The future is never exactly like the past. Some changes are small, some large. Never, ever is everything the same. Any of us can make a large list of present events that represent discontinuous change. That means, to be precise, that consumer speculation in securities markets cannot be and will not be, long term successful, but...

As most of us already know the market manipulations and the of individual securities are fomented n large part by very large market makers and their allies. Those people are exactly analogous to drug dealers, EXACTLY.

Those of us who still imagine otherwise are begging for stock buybacks and other related pleas for somebody, anybody, to give them a 'fix'. Here we have otherwise rational people asking Tesla to join in the foolish effort to help 'get them well' not knowing nor caring that doing so will not work.

Worst of all those 'drug dealers' are now classified as 'investors' by the US SEC. Further, in past periods of great excess, almost the entire US securities industry was reorganized to make them self-regulating. The regulations designed to keep the Great Depression from happening again has been dismantled.

Now just think about how wise it is to attempt to outsmart 'the house' when 'the house' has no effective restrictions at all. Even where there seem to be limits, the enforcers are the perpetrators themselves. The 'Madoff Rule' is just a hint.

I know that the already addicted among us will not stop. They'll continue to have endless charts and graphs, plus copious raw data. All of that will describe the past, and allege that the past predicts the future. It does NOT. Knowing the past is incredibly valuable, only insofar as we can learn from history enough to avoid making the identical mistakes again.

I hope Tesla does not succumb to pressure and make share buybacks. If any of a dozen quite plausible events takes place Tesla will suddenly need huge amounts of cash. Wisely they have remembered what happened in 2013, 2016, 2018. What conceivable justification can there be to dissipate the very strength that supports all those high-risk, high-reward developments.

Throwing away financial strength will inhibit things like; octovalve, Gigacastings, Dojo, FSD, 4680, Cybertruck and so on. Each of those and many more to come can only happen successfully when can reserves are more than normally large and ambitions to continue innovation can be indulged without recourse to skeptical securities industry.

Some of you claim I'm anti-Elon anti-Tesla. The opposite is true. I want the success and innovation to continue unabated.

Note: For the record, at the moment my TSLA portfolio is up >800%. It would be even higher had I not bought so much more in 2020. I will not sell even one share.

Enshrined in the PPM thread. Thank you.

 

[elasalle]

‘Excluding food, energy and trade services, PPI increased 0.3% from a month ago and was up 4.9% on an annual basis, the lowest since April 2021.’

The core PPI came in with a 4 handle the lowest in almost two years.

Producer Price Index News Release summary - 2024 M02 Results

www.bls.gov

Certainly seems that MM trying to make it sound bad, but the only thing they could point to was ‘expectations’. The trend is down pretty hard.


���

Change in final demand from 12 months ago (unadj.)	Change in final demand less foods, energy, and trade from 12 mo. ago (unadj.)
Total	Foods	Energy	Less foods and energy	Total	Trade	Transportation and warehousing	Other
2021
Nov.	1.0	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.9	0.8	1.0	1.3	2.8	0.6	9.9	7.0
Dec.	0.6	0.4	-0.1	-0.2	-1.4	0.4	0.9	1.9	1.6	0.3	10.0	7.0
2022
Jan.	1.2	0.8	1.6	1.8	4.1	0.8	0.9	1.3	0.0	0.8	10.1	6.9
Feb.	1.1	0.2	2.2	1.9	7.2	0.8	0.5	1.7	2.0	-0.3	10.4	6.7
Mar.	1.7	1.0	2.4	2.4	6.6	1.1	1.3	2.3	5.6	0.4	11.7	7.1
Apr.	0.5	0.4	1.3	1.5	1.5	1.1	0.0	0.1	2.1	-0.2	11.2	6.8
May	0.8	0.5	1.5	0.4	4.8	0.7	0.4	0.6	2.5	0.1	11.1	6.8
June	0.9	0.3	2.2	-0.1	8.9	0.5	0.3	0.3	0.8	0.2	11.2	6.4
July(1)	-0.4	0.2	-1.8	1.2	-9.1	0.1	0.2	0.7	-0.5	0.0	9.7	5.8
Aug.(1)	0.0	0.2	-1.0	-0.1	-5.4	0.2	0.5	1.1	-1.1	0.3	8.7	5.6
Sept.(1)	0.3	0.3	0.3	1.5	0.3	0.0	0.2	-0.3	-0.3	0.6	8.5	5.6
Oct.(1)	0.3	0.2	0.6	0.8	2.3	0.0	0.1	-0.1	0.4	0.2	8.1	5.4
Nov.	0.3	0.3	0.1	3.3	-3.3	0.3	0.4	0.7	-0.9	0.4	7.4	4.9

The last two columns show headline and then core PPI. Sorry the cut and paste not working well.

The FED needs to pause for sure. The first hike of 75 is probably represented here, but everything else since then is not, especially the last 125 they have hiked given the 50 we can expect next week.

There was a half point drop in core PPI month over month don’t believe you would want it to go down faster than that.

So trend (downwards) is your friend …

 

[nativewolf]

Wow! Maybe you should consider switching to electric vehicles

Maybe if I could get a couple of those new Semi things and a CT? Well we bought a Ford Lightning as the CT is just too late. The heavy equipment uses about 100 gallons a day. The trucks more, weather impacts things a lot so it bumps all over. Does make one study the gas stations prices (and we only buy diesel so I just glance at the gas to see what the delta is this week). The shortage of diesel is really causing a lot of the inflation. Historically about 20-30 cents a gallon more now 1.30-1.50 a gallon more. That's a ..well lets say 30% increase in fuel costs of shipping, so shipping rates moved up by 25% this year. That hit everything. Europe relies on diesel more than us and the trade between countries was for the US and Russia to send excess diesel to Europe and they exported gas. Well now we export diesel, lots of it but don't need as much gas as EU can supply.

Refineries in China are pumping up diesel exports from cheap russian oil. Crazy world. In a year I hope that's all washed through and diesel prices collapse back to the norm.

Then if the Semi comes along...It eats an amazing amount of our nations diesel production. We produce & use about 60,000,000,00 (60 billion) gallons we export about 10. Each semi could cut about 100 gallons a day (keeping math simple). in 2024 we produce 50k Semis: 50k*100*250 (days a year) = over a billion gallons. That's a just ballparking it. But for each years production to remove 2% of our total diesel consumption well...that moves the needle. In 3 years (2027/8) it would mean the Ukraine/russia war would not move the price of diesel. This is why, in my view, russia attacked when they did. When their production mattered. You'll not have EV heavy equipment for years yet, just rarely appropriate but in 12 years as long as the other truck makers follow we'll see diesel sales at maybe a half of where they are today. Every year of Semi production should remove an ever increasing percentage of our national consumption, in 12 years the annual semi production would remove 4% of the nations consumption. As the overall consumption falls even a relatively niche product like the Semi can have tremendous outsize impacts on the environment and the economy. CAVEAT- the numbers are just meant to show trends. THEY ARE NOT CORRECT but directionally appropriate for illustration.

Love Pilot Travel Centers of America...they are all facing an existential moment. If you care to short over 10 years that's a very vulnerable market. I look at Cummins and I see a great long term short. Short too early and it gets expensive. A short nonetheless.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Ha, is this what control looks like?

 

[sdtslafan]

I do not recognize this unusual price action.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

They won't have to return all, or even most, of the FSD money, regardless of outcome here.

As discussed repeatedly here and elsewhere, there's been 2 different things Tesla has sold as "FSD"

Pre March 2019 they sold what would be at minimum L4 capabilities, arguably L5.

But they only (depending when you bought) charged 3-5k for it, and at this point the majority of buyers would be after this was no longer being sold.

After March 2019 they sold what was explicitly never promised to be more than an L2 product during the sale (auto driving on city streets- which already exists as an L2 product in FSDb)-- and it was sold for a much higher price (currently 15k) and sold to more people as even with a lower take rate for the higher price there were simply far more people buying Teslas since then.

The language change again as oft discussed seems pretty obviously intended to address exactly these sorts of future legal concerns.

The post march-2019 folks, once they've got city streets at L2, are made whole and "owed" nothing further legally. They might well GET more if Tesla can offer >L2 on their vehicles, but legally Tesla wouldn't owe it to them.

The pre-3/19 buyers are still owed something... which is why I don't expect Tesla to recognize ALL deferred FSD revenue, only the post-3/19 stuff, with city streets goes to legit wide release in any given geo. But it's a relatively small amount at this point. And FWIW some owners have already gotten refunds on this via small claims (check out the FSD forum for some discussion of that fact-- though I'm unclear how Tesla handles those refunds accounting-wise).

Great explanation. Thank you.