Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Artful Dodger]

This...amen.

Lol, there are no atheists in foxholes and nuclear submarines barely above crush depth...

Cheers!

 

[OrthoSurg]

Too late to get into TSLA right now? Feel like I missed the boat with this run up. I need a few days for settled cash to be available and I'm a little worried that I will have really missed my opportunity by late next week.

Better to get in at 170 before we get back to $400 in couple months/years than wait to get back in at $60 before it goes back to $400 but finally it never goes below $100, ever. Ask Chicken Genius Singapore.

 

[joefee]

TSLA has been very good to me. I think 400 is possible this year but my cost basis so low I’ve been playing with house money since the stock paid for my 2012 Sig! Like many early investors the volatility has been mind numbing. Don’t bet the farm and diamond hands will prevail.

 

[Unpilot]

;ɓ

I distinctly remember having the conversation with my MIL, who's financial advisor would not let he invest in TSLA, when it was $886 saying "what's the downside in investing in TSLA at this price? I mean it can only go up".

Plus my last two years of getting caught up in the meme stock squeeze and then losing bog in other dumb positions has me a little gun shy right now. Part of me things I can turn 100k into 500k with this and the other is confident i can make that 100k into 25k.

This is not the "gambling casino" that is a couple doors down.
This is the old folks retirement village.

 

[unk45]

Lol, there are no atheists in foxholes and nuclear submarines barely above crush depth...

Cheers!

From reality vs image dept: There have been atheists in foxholes and equivalent, IME people in foxholes and/or open combat swear profusely.
Personally I was too afraid to utter any sound at all, but I was not in a foxhole, just surrounded by people who were trying to kill me.

In TSLA context I suspect such analogies are not very useful. If it works at all; For TSLA it is astounding that, like war, many people do transparently unwise things and imagine that they can successfully use strategies again that have already failed. That is an excellent way to lose a war.

How to make a million dollars in options? Start with five million and use options based on Momentum, BB, etc. you’ll be there at a million soon enough If you keep playing. Never try this in a casino though; they play by the rules, so it might take longer there, maybe, depending on strategy.

 

[Mengy]

I think it’s unlikely too but yet AMZN has a P/E of 94 in this environment.

That is a very good point, and Tesla's fundamentals are much nicer than Amazons...

 

[FastEddieB]

Too late to get into TSLA right now? Feel like I missed the boat with this run up. I need a few days for settled cash to be available and I'm a little worried that I will have really missed my opportunity by late next week.

I‘ve developed a rather simplistic decision tree for this sort of thing…

Knowing what you know, is X company likely to be successful at what it does going forward? If so, buy as much of it as you’re comfortable with and hold it as long as it continues to meet your expectations. If it ever doesn’t, go ahead and sell - for a gain or a loss - and invest those funds somewhere more promising. Note that stock price and stock charts do not factor into this at all - at any given time the price is where it “should be” and is just as likely to go up or down over any given time frame. I think I was pointed towards this philosophy in the 1980’s by a book called “One Up On Wall Street” by Peter Lynch and it has served me well.

 

[hacer]

...

Frankly it is impossible to overstate the enormity of Akio Toyoda stepping down. As a grandson of the founder he has had outsized influence. As a car nut himself he received a Tesla Roadster from Elon: Tesla Thanks Toyota CEO with a 2011 Roadster Sport 2.5
I understood that, Mr Toyoda was pleased, but after commissioning the RAV4 BEV powered by Tesla he was convinced that CARB or not, BEV would never work. That very sceptical view later yielded the wonderful Prius, then the Marai. He never imagined how lei-ion could provide practical long range.

(note: during the CARB compliance car days i was consulting with a competitor also located in Torrance, CA. One of my colleagues had worked on the Toyota BEV plans then. Long stories. In the process I drove them all, including a handful of dreadful prototypes. At the time Toyota was wildly elated over Lexus, and thought hybrids were the future.)

You seem to have conflated the first generation RAV4 BEV (produced entirely by Toyota because Tesla didn't even exist in 1997) with the 2nd generation RAV4 BEV that had the Tesla powertrain (first available in 2012). Even the 1st Gen RAV4 could not have "yielded the wonderful Prius" because they both had first production in the same year, 1997, although the Prius didn't come to the U.S. until 2001 which is still before Tesla even existed.

The concept of the Mirai (which is about as far from wonderful as you can get) could have come from skepticism of the Tesla-powered RAV4 BEV since it came out after that but you are completely wrong about the Prius history. The Prius was wonderful (for its time) and its success more than anything from Lexus is far more likely to have driven Akio's love of hybrids.

 

[GhostSkater]

Year of the Rabbit? More like year of the Semi, that's multiplying like rabbits (And hopefully of the Cybertruck soon)

https://twitter.com/x/status/1619507221427269635

 

[Mengy]

Weekend OT. I am currently watching this youtube video of conversation between Hugh Hendy and Mark Spiegel. I did not know who Hugh was and he is niether a bull nor bear on Tesla. I found it entertaining to watch Mark being roasted by another short seller for being emotional.

Watching this is fascinating, Mark's numbers are so incorrect on pretty much everything he talks about.

- Tesla has an ASP of ~$40,000?
- Toyota is growing at a rate equal to Tesla?
- Tesla doesn't have any tech advantage over any other car maker?
- Tesla is "just a car company"?
- Tesla is guilty of fraud on many levels?

I mean Hugh asks Mark what Tesla's revenues were for 2022 and Mark can't answer it? He has NO IDEA what their revenue was, when we JUST HAD the Q4 earnings report!??!?!?!?

I get the impression Mark is shorting more on emotions rather than numbers, and that is a very dangerous thing to do.

 

[UncaNed]

NASDAQ reported Short Interest (SI) for TSLA has increased by 10.4M shares since the last reporting period: (Dec 30, 2022 vs Jan 13, 2023)

NASDAQ Short Interest Publication Schedule​

View attachment 900562

This represents an increase of 5.7% in the number of shares shorted, but also this is an increase in the value of shares shorted by $1.12B or +11.2%. Paging @Papafox

Shortzes DID NOT expect such positive 2022 Q4 results, and were set up for a 'miss'. Now, they are scrambling to outpace a short-covering rally. We are up > 75% since the TSLA bottom during the 1st week of Jan 2023:

View attachment 900564

Cheers to the Longs!

How long do we expect it will take them to cover?

 

[UncaNed]

Striking how the squeeze/spike in Lucid yesterday seems to have affected other “next Tesla” stocks.

View attachment 900606

Cause or effect???

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Better to get in at 170 before we get back to $400 in couple months/years than wait to get back in at $60 before it goes back to $400 but finally it never goes below $100, ever. Ask Chicken Genius Singapore.

Joking aside, there were plenty of posts before the last split when the stock was around $1100 saying "you should get in now before it hits $4000". At least no one is going on about the cars being appreciating assets anymore... for now...

 

[Artful Dodger]

How long do we expect it will take them to cover?

You expect shortzes to cover? I certainly don't, especially while big carbon is riding high and gill batez is still rich.

 

[dhanson865]

Joking aside, there were plenty of posts before the last split when the stock was around $1100 saying "you should get in now before it hits $4000". At least no one is going on about the cars being appreciating assets anymore... for now...

all time high adjusted to TSLA never split terms is $6110.40

I still expect new all time highs in the future.

 

[UncaNed]

Mercedes GLS 450, 80,000 miles, 2017 4 times brake change for each wheel, nearly 90000 mile model x 2016: zero brake changes

That's just because Teslas are so much fun to drive, you never WANT to stop; THAT'S why Tesla brakes really last so long.

 

[jerry33]

You seem to have conflated the first generation RAV4 BEV (produced entirely by Toyota because Tesla didn't even exist in 1997) with the 2nd generation RAV4 BEV that had the Tesla powertrain (first available in 2012). Even the 1st Gen RAV4 could not have "yielded the wonderful Prius" because they both had first production in the same year, 1997, although the Prius didn't come to the U.S. until 2001 which is still before Tesla even existed.

The concept of the Mirai (which is about as far from wonderful as you can get) could have come from skepticism of the Tesla-powered RAV4 BEV since it came out after that but you are completely wrong about the Prius history. The Prius was wonderful (for its time) and its success more than anything from Lexus is far more likely to have driven Akio's love of hybrids.

Agreed. Toyota developed the Prius because they were desperate. No one under fifty purchased a Toyota and 40% Japanese market penetration appeared to be an impossible goal (a couple of decades earlier it was closer to 80%). They took the top engineers from their various devisions and gave them a mandate to create systems for the 21st century. An actual car wasn't expected. Once the Prius was successful and the market share in Japan was at reasonable levels, they went back to Toyota's normal bureaucracy, which is why development pretty much stopped for the Prius in 2004. (Source: The Prius that Shook the World)

 

[KMCC]

I kind of feel the same way. Have some {Mod: other stuff that doesn't belong in this thread}. Anyway, definitely looking to put anything I can into TSLA. Might regret it....

Why might you regret it?
Tesla at one point was over $400 and as far as I can tell it's a better company now than it was at $400 ( won't get into Twitter)

 

[Sofie]

Better to get in at 170 before we get back to $400 in couple months/years than wait to get back in at $60 before it goes back to $400 but finally it never goes below $100, ever. Ask Chicken Genius Singapore.

Yep. I don’t care anymore about the price of TSLA. I just Submitted a limit order for 170$ for 1,000 shares for Monday morning.
We go up, we go down, money comes, money goes. I just want more shares of this company in my portfolio. Maybe it’s a stupid, unwise purchase at that price, but I don’t really care anymore.

 

[Wooloomooloo]

all time high adjusted to TSLA never split terms is $6110.40

I still expect new all time highs in the future.

Fair, in Nov 2021. I bailed at $327 in 2022 but bought at $15 in 2018 (between $205 and $235 then). It paid off two mortgages, so I'm pretty happy about that. I'd have felt almost criminal telling people to buy or even hold at the point I sold, you can always buy back in later.