Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Prunesquallor]

talking about prognostications: TSLA $400+ in sometime in 2023 seems like a very high probability
just my personal opinion, not financial advice

Isweartogodisweartogodisweartogod I will take some profits this time.

 

[AndrewZ]

He's like a 10 year old flipping over a chess board every time he realizes he's a terrible player.

And then all the focus ends up on one move that worked out.

Even a stopped clock is right twice a day

 

[Olle]

GE has a higher P/E than Tesla. GE is on the cutting edge of engineering and technology.

Glad you brought up GE. One of the biggest and best examples of disruption in recent history and very relevant for automotive, in particular for Tesla's old world competitors. GE stock is down 75% over the last 20 years. Why? To a large extent because GE doubled down on fossil fuel generator technology throughout the clean energy revolution in power utilities, which started about 15 years ahead of the EV revolution that we are experiencing right now.

Essentially all new installed power generation in the Western hemisphere is wind and solar now. It has been an exponential increase for some 20 years to now closing in on 100%. These 20 years were not great for investing in coal and gas generator manufacturing...


Anyone seeing a parallell between GEs past and GMs announcement of their investment in the new generation of V8 engines?

GE stock chart 2001-2023.

 

[Ogre]

talking about prognostications: TSLA $400+ in sometime in 2023 seems like a very high probability
just my personal opinion, not financial advice

It would be pretty unusual for a growth stock like Tesla to not revisit the ATH sometime this year. That would be mean letting the ATH stand for 2 full years. Not impossible, but pretty unusual for a company growing revenues faster than 40% Y/Y.

Of course a 70% drop is pretty uncommon by itself and this 13 month run has been pretty crazy, so hard to say.

I sure hope it happens… I have some of my (hypocrite) Jan 2024 $333 Calls I bought when TSLA was around $900 split adjusted which I would love to be worth something more than $10 some day.


Aside: Around the first of the year I split my IRA and did a Roth conversion. All of my options and a small chunk of shares were moved into the Roth. Huge tax bill coming up. But…. BUT… that position is already 2.5x what it was when I converted it. If Tesla revisits $400/ share before June of 2024, I think the account will be worth 10 times conversion value and I will have shed all future tax liability on that money. Wasn’t my game plan going into 2022, but that’s me trying to turn lemons into lemonaide.

PS: Most of my portfolio is simple shares. This Roth fork was my reaction to a series of events and I do not recommend this path to anyone who values their sanity, their marriage, and retirement.

PPS: Not investment advice.

 

[TrendTrader007]

not directly related to TSLA but sounds like Adani group in India is ripe for major problems with potential domino effect in indian stock market. When i heard about this fellow becoming second richest after Elon i read a bit and sounded like he was going to flop. i never suspected so fast and could easily go into bankruptcy. i never invested in Indian stock market but follow it occasionally and have a theoretical interest from a sentiment standpoint. if Indian stock market crashes in 2023 then money will flee to US stock market-probably already is. again, not directly relevant to TSLA but just shows how gullible investors are and what a treat it is to have a company like Tesla with stellar financials and zero accounting fraud concerns. there are lot of bad actors out there. Elon will likely stay richest in world for decades to come.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I don’t know it helps but I am in a bit of an argument with a FUDster on Twitter. He claims that we are all belong to a cult of fanboys and that Tesla is found to be doing wrong on a massive scale.

I told him that Elon can be quite a cahracter and I wish that he would shut up on certain subjects. Tesla is doing quite well and my shares have done great in the past.. Perhaps there are certain things that could have done better but that Elon or Tesla is doing wrong on a massive scale a a bit of a stretch.
He than asked about demand problems and disappearing profits
In my reply I asked if he listened to the conference call and told him that these are non-issues. Margins are fine and price cuts are prudent due to production being more efficient. Further the price cuts are also in line with the overall mission of Tesla. Tesla is doing fine.

He then asked if I looked at the actual data. I told him again about the conference calls and that Tesla has a remarkable history of meeting and exceeding its own forecasts.

Then comes the kicker; he told me that I don’t look at the actual data.

I told him I always look critical the 10Q’s and 10K’s Just like Warren Buffet does. Like I said, I listen to the conference calls. I look at the stores and see always people inside. I think I am doing quite a thorough job studying Tesla. What do you mean by “not looking at the actual data”

Then it went silent.

I don't know if it is worth my while but I try to be civilised. These guys have such a negative bias like as we are following Elon like Jim Jones. Perhaps there are some super fanboys out there in which Elon can do no harm. I think, however, the majority of the posters here keep a healthy critical view at the development. Hopefully, the guy on Twitter starts to look a little less biased at us.

If not - I have tried my part.

The problem with arguments with Twitter (or other) randos is that you could be arguing with a paid oil industry or big auto shill, a literal chat bot, a paid employee in a troll farm, or just a delusional 16 year old in his parent's basement. Occasionally, you might actually be talking to a real person who has invested $10,000 into the stock market. All of these are wastes of your time. I tend to cut off conversations like that by asking them for data to back up their position. That usually shuts them up. As far as numbers on our side, I usually go with a 51% YoY revenue increase for Tesla in 2022.

 

[lafrisbee]

Curiously and coincidentally, Tesla has put up window coverings on the Gigacasting area at Giga Texas and has left them up for the past week or more.

Secret things are happening.

Hot Damn! Elon's gotten into the Marijuana buzzyness.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Isweartogodisweartogodisweartogod I will take some profits this time.

Uh huh. We are all great at buying. Selling is apparently a different skill set!

 

[TrendTrader007]

i actually found a better stock than TSLA. it is called META. how do i know it is a better stock? why, it is up 20% AH while lowly TSLA only up 1.6%
i therefore will be selling all my TSLA at open and plunging into META
(never mind that TSLA grew EPS 40% and Revenues 37% Year over year in Q4 2022 while META did a spectacular -52% and -4% respectively)
yes, META did minus 52% and minus 4%
after all best way to invest in stocks is to chase after hours performance
every investor knows it

(am i supposed to label this as sarcasm)
alright, i am not serious
good night!

 

[wipster]

talking about prognostications: TSLA $400+ in sometime in 2023 seems like a very high probability
just my personal opinion, not financial advice

I think we'll see some strong indicators about a rising SP during the next 3 months. First, Investors Day on March 1; Second, P&D report on or about April 3; and finally, 1st qtr. Financial Report probably April 26.

If things progress the way we hear they are, it should easily be over $200 by Investors Day and after that Katie bar the door!

Definitely not investment advice, except for HODL...

 

[Ogre]

I think we'll see some strong indicators about a rising SP during the next 3 months. First, Investors Day on March 1; Second, P&D report on or about April 3; and finally, 1st qtr. Financial Report probably April 26.

I totally agree.

But feel compelled to point out that we all agreed that 2022 looked like it was going to be awesome last January.

Apparently can’t resist trying for a second recommendation “For post of most BuzzKill”.

 

[2daMoon]

I don’t know it helps but I am in a bit of an argument with a FUDster on Twitter. He claims that we are all belong to a cult of fanboys and that Tesla is found to be doing wrong on a massive scale.

I told him that Elon can be quite a cahracter and I wish that he would shut up on certain subjects. Tesla is doing quite well and my shares have done great in the past.. Perhaps there are certain things that could have done better but that Elon or Tesla is doing wrong on a massive scale a a bit of a stretch.
He than asked about demand problems and disappearing profits
In my reply I asked if he listened to the conference call and told him that these are non-issues. Margins are fine and price cuts are prudent due to production being more efficient. Further the price cuts are also in line with the overall mission of Tesla. Tesla is doing fine.

He then asked if I looked at the actual data. I told him again about the conference calls and that Tesla has a remarkable history of meeting and exceeding its own forecasts.

Then comes the kicker; he told me that I don’t look at the actual data.

I told him I always look critical the 10Q’s and 10K’s Just like Warren Buffet does. Like I said, I listen to the conference calls. I look at the stores and see always people inside. I think I am doing quite a thorough job studying Tesla. What do you mean by “not looking at the actual data”

Then it went silent.

I don't know if it is worth my while but I try to be civilised. These guys have such a negative bias like as we are following Elon like Jim Jones. Perhaps there are some super fanboys out there in which Elon can do no harm. I think, however, the majority of the posters here keep a healthy critical view at the development. Hopefully, the guy on Twitter starts to look a little less biased at us.

If not - I have tried my part.

Maybe next time offer to make KoolAid?

First time they mentioned looking at the data, I would have asked if there was something specific they would suggest looking for?

Make it a, "Really? Please, tell me more?" moment to put them on the spot.

 

[wipster]

I totally agree.

But feel compelled to point out that we all agreed that 2022 looked like it was going to be awesome last January.

Apparently can’t resist trying for a second recommendation “For post of most BuzzKill”.

True, but I don't want a Groundhog Year or Deja Vu all over again ;-)

That's why I said not investment advice...

 

[SmokyPeat]

i actually found a better stock than TSLA. it is called META. how do i know it is a better stock? why, it is up 20% AH while lowly TSLA only up 1.6%
i therefore will be selling all my TSLA at open and plunging into META
(never mind that TSLA grew EPS 40% and Revenues 37% Year over year in Q4 2022 while META did a spectacular -52% and -4% respectively)
yes, META did minus 52% and minus 4%
after all best way to invest in stocks is to chase after hours performance
every investor knows it

(am i supposed to label this as sarcasm)
alright, i am not serious
good night!

Hey, they're both at around $184/share right now. First one to $300 wins!

 

[Hiline]

Aside: Around the first of the year I split my IRA and did a Roth conversion. All of my options and a small chunk of shares were moved into the Roth. Huge tax bill coming up. But…. BUT… that position is already 2.5x what it was when I converted it. If Tesla revisits $400/ share before June of 2024, I think the account will be worth 10 times conversion value and I will have shed all future tax liability on that money. Wasn’t my game plan going into 2022, but that’s me trying to turn lemons into lemonaide.

Your adjusted game plan sounds like mine. In case TSLA dips from the current price at any point this year, I'll be buying 2023 calls.

 

[AndrewZ]

@ the FOMC, look at Powell’s body language here when this reporter suggests they would have considered pausing at this point

I’ve found a few moments here that seem to exemplify the market giving the Fed zero credibility and Powell clearly knowing it

Almost looks like a mix of disdain for the bond market and also resentment towards the Jedi Council

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't know if it is worth my while but I try to be civilised. These guys have such a negative bias like as we are following Elon like Jim Jones. Perhaps there are some super fanboys out there in which Elon can do no harm. I think, however, the majority of the posters here keep a healthy critical view at the development.

In my observation, a majority of posters tend to have an unhealthy or overly critical view. They think Tesla is making serious blunders that they would not make if they were in his shoes. In other words, an overly critical view of Elon and Tesla that leads to lower investment gains then if they thought Tesla and Elon could do no wrong. A number of people in 2020 sold some or all of their shares in the $20's, $30's and $40's (split adjusted) because they didn't think Elon could handle all the growth, or that Elon was mis-managing Tesla service and all the new cars it was selling would overwhelm service center causing a crash in demand for new sales, or the Supercharger Network couldn't keep up with the growth, or that there would be demand issues for other failings of Tesla or Elon, or the new factories couldn't ramp effectively, etc, etc, etc.

Those who had faith and held a steady course are the big winners. They avoided selling so their entire share of TSLA could continue compounding unaffected by huge tax bills caused by getting cold feet at inopportune moments. Sure, there are certainly some people who were either shrewd or (more likely) lucky enough to hold every share to near the top and sell it all (in a tax-deferred account), and then were lucky enough to buy three times as much near the bottom. But that is just not a reasonable expectation to have and has little to do with trust in Elon and everything to do with the vagaries of the market and the economy.

Granted, it's undeniably true that no person is perfect, we all make mistakes, Elon included. But it's typically a lot more profitable for people who realize Elon is a lot smarter and more knowledgeable than they are and the company will very likely continue to increase in value over time in an out-sized fashion. As far as I know, Jim Jones had no track record of taking people to a better place so following him was just blind stupidity. It was illogical. On the other hand, Elon has an outstanding business track record and there is little reason to think that will suddenly change. My point is, it's not a religion to have a very high opinion of Elon's leadership and abilities, and by extension, the future successes of Tesla as a company.

 

[insaneoctane]

I think this hasn't been spotted by most people because Elon's social media account is set to private (for an experiment). But the good news is that Tesla has a production beta Cybertruck already produced, and Elon was reviewing it yesterday:

View attachment 902013

Kinda wondering why Tesla has so much "beta" product? Is because they are moving so fast?

PS- Let's skip the "because TSLA beta is 2x..." replies

 

[ripper88]

The problem with arguments with Twitter (or other) randos is that you could be arguing with a paid oil industry or big auto shill, a literal chat bot, a paid employee in a troll farm, or just a delusional 16 year old in his parent's basement. Occasionally, you might actually be talking to a real person who has invested $10,000 into the stock market. All of these are wastes of your time. I tend to cut off conversations like that by asking them for data to back up their position. That usually shuts them up. As far as numbers on our side, I usually go with a 51% YoY revenue increase for Tesla in 2022.!

This a thousand times. Don't waste your valuable time with concern trolls etc. Thank you for summing it up nicely so I didn't have to.

 

[UkNorthampton]

In my observation, a majority of posters tend to have an unhealthy or overly critical view. They think Tesla is making serious blunders that they would not make if they were in his shoes. In other words, an overly critical view of Elon and Tesla that leads to lower investment gains then if they thought Tesla and Elon could do no wrong. A number of people in 2020 sold some or all of their shares in the $20's, $30's and $40's (split adjusted) because they didn't think Elon could handle all the growth, or that Elon was mis-managing Tesla service and all the new cars it was selling would overwhelm service center causing a crash in demand for new sales, or the Supercharger Network couldn't keep up with the growth, or that there would be demand issues for other failings of Tesla or Elon, or the new factories couldn't ramp effectively, etc, etc, etc.

Those who had faith and held a steady course are the big winners. They avoided selling so their entire share of TSLA could continue compounding unaffected by huge tax bills caused by getting cold feet at inopportune moments. Sure, there are certainly some people who were either shrewd or (more likely) lucky enough to hold every share to near the top and sell it all (in a tax-deferred account), and then were lucky enough to buy three times as much near the bottom. But that is just not a reasonable expectation to have and has little to do with trust in Elon and everything to do with the vagaries of the market and the economy.

Granted, it's undeniably true that no person is perfect, we all make mistakes, Elon included. But it's typically a lot more profitable for people who realize Elon is a lot smarter and more knowledgeable than they are and the company will very likely continue to increase in value over time in an out-sized fashion. As far as I know, Jim Jones had no track record of taking people to a better place so following him was just blind stupidity. It was illogical. On the other hand, Elon has an outstanding business track record and there is little reason to think that will suddenly change. My point is, it's not a religion to have a very high opinion of Elon's leadership and abilities, and by extension, the future successes of Tesla as a company.

Also, once they've sold, missed the rise, they often don't buy back in, ever.

They hold onto their decision, lose out. Bitterness and a chain of wrong-headed self-justifying thoughts seem to follow.

To those doubting Elon/Tesla decisions, I think a better question is- what investment is better? For themselves and for humanity's future?

Renewables are winning (cheaper, focus of new capacity and investments). Huge recent improvements to Europe's dependence on an unreliable neighbour have been made lately. Just a bit more, a bit longer, to embed these changes in more places & we've stopped digging the hole for climate change. Still have to fill the hole in, to get back, but huge progress in a short time. Tesla is a very visible part of this to the general population.