Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Krugerrand]

Appreciate Lee's transparency here...

In conclusion - it’s all just one big narrative; a story told to fit an outcome.

Beware the stories you tell yourself. All of it is a never ending fiction. The stories your parents told you and you’ve hung onto your whole life and definitely the stories being told to you by ‘the street, the media, the market, et al’ - those too. All limiting, all keeping you from realizing your full potential.

 

[ZeApelido]

Appears this hasn't made its way to our thread yet...

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621230415632801792

No man would ask for a glass of milk in his Tesla for fear of ruining that vegan leather.

 

[2daMoon]

Appreciate Lee's transparency here...

Lee offers an interesting perspective, and I could see how he became concerned at the end of the year, but it still seems to me that more than anything else he was taken in by the FUD.

FUD is a psychological war, based upon sound principals about how our mind works, and then exploiting that.

I would like to see him do an episode comparing what the effect would have been on his and his dad's portfolios if they were to have HODLed instead. Though the side gigs he had going in LEAPs and such would have to be taken into account.

His current outlook sounds as if it has been tainted by the naysayers in whatever form they present themselves (Bears, TSLAQ, etc.). His perspective was slanted toward hope and a promising future and is now slanted the other way. It would be great if he could wiggle his way back into the middle and reduce the influence the extreme views have had on his evaluation.

He seems like a smart guy who has gone through an emotional period which has left a bias on rational processing of the data. I hope that he comes through okay. Certainly am happy to hear he is working DCA in TSLA. He hasn't lost hope.

 

[MP3Mike]

From Ford's results:

In November, producing the 150,000th Mustang Mach-E in less than two years, a milestone to scaling Ford’s global EV production to a run rate of 600,000 annually by the end of 2023 and more than 2 million by the end of 2026, and

They only sold ~61k EVs (Mach-E, F-150 Lightning, E-Transit) in 2022. They recently announced that they plan to make ~130k Mach-Es in 2023. (Up from ~78k.) What are the other ~450k of run rate going to be? Are they really going to 10x their run-rate in one year? (But then it will take them an additional 3 years to 3x that run rate?) Yeah, I don't think that is going to happen.

And it is going to take 4 years to get to Tesla's current run rate? Yeah, I guess Elon's right, you need a telescope to see second place.

 

[ZeApelido]

One of these things is not like the others.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621291785371672578

 

[Krugerrand]

Lee offers an interesting perspective, and I could see how he became concerned at the end of the year, but it still seems to me that more than anything else he was taken in by the FUD.

FUD is a psychological war, based upon sound principals about how our mind works, and then exploiting that.

I would like to see him do an episode comparing what the effect would have been on his and his dad's portfolios if they were to have HODLed instead. Though the side gigs he had going in LEAPs and such would have to be taken into account.

His current outlook sounds as if it has been tainted by the naysayers in whatever form they present themselves (Bears, TSLAQ, etc.). His perspective was slanted toward hope and a promising future and is now slanted the other way. It would be great if he could wiggle his way back into the middle and reduce the influence the extreme views have had on his evaluation.

He seems like a smart guy who has gone through an emotional period which has left a bias on rational processing of the data. I hope that he comes through okay. Certainly am happy to hear he is working DCA in TSLA. He hasn't lost hope.

The best way, nay the only way, is to stop listening to everyone but yourself. You can do the research without including and weighting all the ‘narratives’ from everyone else. Not a single person has had it all right, even those who do ‘this’ as a profession.

I can’t help with the ‘gambling’ he did/wants to do. By the very definition, it’s a *gamble*.

 

[Zero CO2]

Appreciate Lee's transparency here...

He is way too concerned with 4680... and has been all along , forgot about Energy, FSD, etc. he is now spouting the bear thesis with the same confidence he did when he was a bull... zoom out Lee and you would have held ... shame he is like the guy who studies too much and confuses himself and panics on the final exam....
he should have re-watched many of his own videos and not panicked ...

 

[StealthP3D]

...I went with #2 and, due to it being my dad's referral, just went with what he recommended. Carrier is regularly rated #1-3 in the US for heat pumps. I'm sure there's a lot of people that make purchasing decisions like these without doing more due diligence...in particular with home-related improvements.

OK, then. Carrier is regularly rated #1-3 in the US for heat pumps? Is that like GM leading the electrification of the auto industry?

Hint: Yes, it is. Follow the money. Carrier has huge advertising budgets, of course it's going to place near the top of the heap when they have paid all the proper bribes. There are better heat pumps out there and there's plenty of room for Tesla to leverage their manufacturing expertise, robotics, etc. to become the standard in efficiency, reliability and longevity. One of the challenges is the same one facing their solar tile business, it requires a huge network of skilled installers, and every installation is a little different.

 

[GOVA]

Appreciate Lee's transparency here...

Nobody cares. Really. His actions has led me to beleve that has had no clue.
I am curious how many clueless viewers of his blabbering have lost bad because of him.

 

[MC3OZ]

He is way too concerned with 4680... and has been all along , forgot about Energy, FSD, etc. he is now spouting the bear thesis with the same confidence he did when he was a bull... zoom out Lee and you would have held ... shame he is like the guy who studies too much and confuses himself and panics on the final exam....
he should have re-watched many of his own videos and not panicked ...

Yes, that was the point I was going to make, it isn't just Lee. Many people are impatient for 4680 progress and assume the worst when progress appears to be slower than expected.

We need to keep in mind that 1 out of 4 lines is running at Austin, the Cathode plant is being constructed, and Drew said that 2024 should be a big year for 4680 production.

Unlike Model 3 Production Hell, this isn't a bet the company scenario.

Wait and see what is said on March 1, there may be no real reason to worry.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Well this is certainly going to be a fun hour or so of reading the wreckage of all these earnings

My favorite so far......Fords What a dumpster fire lol

Not currently profitable..higher margins will be unlocked, "EXPECTED TO BEGIN PRODUCTION in 2025"

All these clowns citing we are coming for tesla, will outsell tesla, yada yada...makes my conviction even more clear that there is no competition.

 

[ZeApelido]

I too, lament that Elon had to sell so much stock.

Ha ha.

[cries]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621302994473205760

 

[StealthP3D]

No, it was not!
Many, included in here, kept saying otherwise. It was not obvious at all. Unless you meant you and I.

OK, then, you and I and a very few other very select people!

Anyone who thought Elon was going to ruin Tesla, or that it would even be more than a blip in the long-term, never made sense to begin with. And that was my point, they either knew better but just wanted to make negative noises, or they should have known better. In all likelihood, Musk owning Twitter is a significant long-term tailwind for Tesla. I don't see how anyone with their eyes open can claim otherwise. Even Elon has let on as much.

 

[Stretch2727]

I found the below interesting. They are going to give a clear picture into the EV business. I am sure it won't be pretty but better to be transparent.

GM has said they will not split or break out. They probably don't even know a clear picture as organizationally it is all mixed together.

 

[MikeC]

I too, lament that Elon had to sell so much stock.

Ha ha.

[cries]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1621302994473205760

You know, I didn’t hear any remorse from him until the stock rose above his last sale price. Just sayin’.

 

[2daMoon]

The best way, nay the only way, is to stop listening to everyone but yourself. You can do the research without including and weighting all the ‘narratives’ from everyone else. Not a single person has had it all right, even those who do ‘this’ as a profession.

I can’t help with the ‘gambling’ he did/wants to do. By the very definition, it’s a *gamble*.

I find no harm in "listening" as long as I am the decider of what to use and what to discard. For me, adding to the data, and sorting for correlation or conflict can be a useful method of separating the wheat from the chaff. It will often reveal things I may have not known.

But, yeah, never blindly follow anyone's path.

 

[kbM3]

Lee offers an interesting perspective, and I could see how he became concerned at the end of the year, but it still seems to me that more than anything else he was taken in by the FUD.

FUD is a psychological war, based upon sound principals about how our mind works, and then exploiting that.

I would like to see him do an episode comparing what the effect would have been on his and his dad's portfolios if they were to have HODLed instead. Though the side gigs he had going in LEAPs and such would have to be taken into account.

His current outlook sounds as if it has been tainted by the naysayers in whatever form they present themselves (Bears, TSLAQ, etc.). His perspective was slanted toward hope and a promising future and is now slanted the other way. It would be great if he could wiggle his way back into the middle and reduce the influence the extreme views have had on his evaluation.

He seems like a smart guy who has gone through an emotional period which has left a bias on rational processing of the data. I hope that he comes through okay. Certainly am happy to hear he is working DCA in TSLA. He hasn't lost hope.

The two largest flaws I spotted in his thinking are:

1) He believes he’s smart enough to predict short term share value. He’s not. Even the smartest Tesla YouTubers and extremely smart people on this forum are not that good.
2) He apparently thinks Tesla being late on their timelines (e.g. 4680’s) is a competitive disadvantage. This is the TSLAQ talking point. Tesla failed because they missed their goal, broke their promise… It fails to take into account that Elon shoots to be 7-10 years ahead of everyone else, misses and ends up only 5-8 years ahead. What a loser!

 

[NickFie]

Even on a heat pump, 98% of the year is great - but I'm finding a need to run it consistently throughout the day during near/at freezing temperatures. The heat pump I got (Carrier) doesn't work as well as a gas furnace during these freezing temps (specifically in the mornings to ramp up from 64 degrees to 70) and I'm looking into insulation to cover for the inefficiency.

It’s possible Carrier’s heat pump is a fair weather friend. We replaced our aging gas furnace with a Carrier high-efficiency model. It uses the heat pump when it’s not too cold outside, then fires up the natural gas burner once the heat pump is out-classed.

I don’t know whether the transition is simply temperature-based or smart based on energy costs and observed effectiveness. I input our cost per KWh and CCF (must convert to metric).

Would like to think the Carrier unit tracks heat pump’s electricity cost per BTU squeezed from the air at current temperature and humidity, then compares that with cost of using natural gas.

I’m probably giving Carrier more credit than they deserve. However, that would be standard practice for a hypothetical Tesla furnace.

 

[StealthP3D]

Rationally, a normal person would be insane to use first principles on literally every decision in their life.

Absolutely not! First principles thinking does not dictate your goals or whether a personal decision is logical or rational, it is merely a method of looking at things that helps you avoid thinking you know more than you do. It's more a world view than a tool. There is no downside to using it on every deliberate decision you make, other than it's very difficult to use deliberately, it's more of a habitual way of thinking that you can work towards improving. It can only improve your decision making to avoid the most common assumptions and pitfalls when making daily decisions.

 

[Zero CO2]

Ford earnings: Stock drops sharply after missing Q4 EPS estimates

Yahoo Finance's Pras Subramanian breaks down Ford earnings.

finance.yahoo.com

this is what it looks like when a company that is getting disrupted attempts to pivot in earnest ... GM is not pivoting and I am getting a sense they will not produce any meaningful EVs they made their money on ICE and Financing and will continue in that direction they are now stuck in the innovators dilemma

How many EV has GM sold in 2022?


GM was able to achieve record U.S. sales of 38,120 Chevrolet Bolt EV and EUV models in 2022. However, it sold fewer than 1,000 units of its luxury GMC Hummer EV and Cadillac Lyriq, combined