Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[new_sneakers]

Listening again to the earnings call. i find it useful to go back and listen again non-contemporaneously. There is so little signal amongst the noise in investing; it is sensible to amplify it and keep it front of mind.

When Elon talked about deploying FSD Beta, he added “for city streets, to roughly 400,000 customers”.

From his moderating intonation, this indicates that more deferred revenue will be released when v11 takes FSD Beta to highway use.

 

[JRP3]

On the CT finish, Franz, the head designer, was on a recent podcast and he said that it was some kind of intentional brushed like finish. I’ll have to dig up the podcast since my memory is imperfect, but it surely wasnt a mirror finish.

I thought I heard the same thing.

 

[wipster]

Listening again to the earnings call. i find it useful to go back and listen again non-contemporaneously. There is so little signal amongst the noise in investing; it is sensible to amplify it and keep it front of mind.

When Elon talked about deploying FSD Beta, he added “for city streets, to roughly 400,000 customers”.

From his moderating intonation, this indicates that more deferred revenue will be released when v11 takes FSD Beta to highway use.

Yet the FSD order page says "Coming Soon: Autosteer on city streets." Surely that's what's coming with V11?

 

[Ogre]

I’m actually debating etching mine.

been considering something similar, either electro etching or a template and light sandblasting. Another thought was just an abrasive wheel leaving a different finish on a section which is masked.

 

[Ogre]

There is one big difference though. If you took out a 9 year loan, at the end of 9 years, you would be driving a 9 year-old Tesla (still a great car though). Whereas the person who continues to lease would be taking delivery of their 3rd new state-of-the-art Tesla!

Something to be considered.

If you lease a Model 3 this year, there is very likely a newer, even more affordable car with a better tech stack in 3 years.

Considering trading in my Model Y when I get the Cybertruck and leasing a 3 at that time. Also helps me avoid having 2 full car payments at the same time.

 

[scaesare]

FYI, I've decided to mainly use Twitter for the foreseeable future vs using this thread and @adiggs "be the house" thread, largely due to trolls and other difficult posters. I've had to ignore so many that it hurts.

I'll come here from time to time, but it is just not the place that makes me feel more informed and well rounded moreso than my Twitter feed.

Thank you for so much discord over the years and I wish all well!

Oof. Sorry too see you go, @Discoducky.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

2 weeks...

Is that 2 weeks Elon time, or 2 weeks regular time?

 

[Ogre]

Someone at work asked me today what I think TSLA would be worth by 2030. I said that I have seen most updated targets at $1,000.
Is this the general consensus? What do you all think?

Depends if 2030 rhymes with 2022 or 2021.

 

[oldTAVguy]

been considering something similar, either electro etching or a template and light sandblasting. Another thought was just an abrasive wheel leaving a different finish on a section which is masked.

Be careful with etching or tattoos...

Ugliest Tattoos

bad tattoos | wtf tattoos | tattoo fails | worst tattoos

failblog.cheezburger.com

 

[Ogre]

Be careful with etching or tattoos...

Ugliest Tattoos

bad tattoos | wtf tattoos | tattoo fails | worst tattoos

failblog.cheezburger.com

It’ll be classy and subdued. Something like this.

(Note: I bodged together other peoples art to make this, not exactly an original work)

 

[navguy12]

True enough if taken to that extreme. But, you are unlikely to find any 9 year leases or 9 year loans. Though the advent of long lasting EVs could eventually lead to longer loan periods being offered.

I'd like to see a 9 year loan for an EV. The overall payout is likely much less than the cost of three leases over the same period and the monthly hit would probably be lower as well. Maybe X.com will be offering long-term loans on Teslas someday soon...

In Canada, we have eight year loans offered on new pickup trucks.

 

[lafrisbee]

There is one big difference though. If you took out a 9 year loan, at the end of 9 years, you would be driving a 9 year-old Tesla (still a great car though). Whereas the person who continues to lease would be taking delivery of their 3rd new state-of-the-art Tesla!

Something to be considered.

has anyone brought up that in say...less than five years The FSD taxi fleet will be upon us? It'd be best to not own a car then.

 

[navguy12]

Absolutely not the case. I would even speculate Franz& Team Got the inspiration from walls cladding and panels. Think Apple Store and professional kitchens which have to withstand severe conditions.
Tesla loves to look over the fence.
They used the company Saueressig for the Cell rolling which were not specialists in Batteries before.
Another example the stacked segments of starship which looked like sugar in the beginning until they consulted a silo manufacturer.

Same I would guess for the vector like CT design. It’s been done before just in another field.

LEVELe Wall Cladding System

The LEVELe Wall Cladding System unites high-performance green materials, lightweight panels and numerous configuration options.

www.forms-surfaces.com

Those examples in your link: Stanley Kubrick would have been in heaven if he had that material to work with back in the 60s.

 

[MikeC]

I disagree.

They will argue that with unemployment at basically unprecedented lows, and inflationary, that their mandate is clear: raise interest rates until the labor market softens.

But that’s against their mandate of maximum employment. If they are still fighting inflation, that’s one thing and they have to do what they have to do to accomplish their other mandate of price stability.

My point was just that they don’t want to soften the labor market solely because unemployment is low - it’s just an unfortunate byproduct of fighting inflation. If inflation cools, they have no reason to hike and won’t be making people lose their jobs just for the hell of it.

 

[wipster]

has anyone brought up that in say...less than five years The FSD taxi fleet will be upon us? It'd be best to not own a car then.

Not for everyone my friend.

 

[wipster]

In Canada, we have eight year loans offered on new pickup trucks.

Probably be a help with CyberTruck!

 

[SageBrush]

Meh....I still think a lease only makes sense for those bad at math.

When I am feeling grumpy, I say the same thing.

There are some exceptions where car manufacturers dump production into the lease pool that can be cheaper than buying. It happens. But over all, over time, leasing is more expensive. It just follows from simple analysis. Which then makes me laugh hysterically when people say "sure, but I lease because it is more affordable."

It takes a special brand of mental sophistry to call something more expensive the more affordable choice.

 

[wipster]

Is that 2 weeks Elon time, or 2 weeks regular time?

I think he meant it as a joke...

 

[wipster]

When I am feeling grumpy, I say the same thing.

There are some exceptions where car manufacturers dump production into the lease pool that can be cheaper than buying. It happens. But over all, over time, leasing is more expensive. It just follows from simple analysis. Which then makes me laugh hysterically when people say "sure, but I lease because it is more affordable."

It takes a special brand of mental sophistry to call something more expensive the more affordable choice.

Disagree. It's all related to what you can afford from the money you have coming in. $349 monthly for a lease payment or $660 a month for a car payment makes a BIG difference in our of pocket money. Even though there's no buyback provision in a Tesla lease (for now at least), it will still be more affordable for many folks. The big difference is what the value of the car will be after 6 years. Many ICE rigs, like Mercedes or BMW depreciate rapidly, scary in fact. Based on what we've seen so far with the S, it will depreciate far less. Will that be the case with the 3's and the Y's? Based on the value of the 3 year lease returns, I would say they too will retain a lot of their value. However, that may be a factor of what other used BEV's are available in the future as well.

So if you add up all the outgoing and potential incoming, with a Tesla, you'll probably be money ahead if you buy and then sell your car after 6 years. But in the interim, the lessee will have over $300 a month more in spending cash. That makes a big difference to a lot of people, especially those who are not able to take advantage of the Tax Credit.

My point is affordability is in the eye of the person making the monthly payments. And I'm sure we all would rather have folks driving BEV's (hopefully Teslas) than spewing out more CO2 into the environment.

 

[Mengy]

Okay, then. You’re all right. I guess the waviness in the prototypes was because some intern made them. And I guess waviness that happens all the time in steel and aluminum Class A panels in all brands of cars over the decades, INCLUDING Tesla’s (that people have literally complained about on this forum over the years) is all just an optical illusion. You’ve all got firsthand experience making Class A panels and with working with stainless steel, while I’ve just imagined my experience. Got it.

I have 25 years of engineering experience designing large sheetmetal stuff. and yeah waviness in large sheets of metal is normal for all but the most expensive of stock. Certainly Tesla won't be using such high end stainless sheet for the CT, as a high volume mass production vehicle they'll be using more affordable stainless. So yes we should expect some waviness in the large body panels.

A brush finish would help to alleviate this issue, DeLorean went this route plus it's body panels are relatively small. If they go with the more polished look then some degree of waviness will be visible from certain angles of view. We used flat paints instead of gloss on large enclosures to hide the waviness and improve the aesthetics, it helped a lot.