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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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That's a first that I've seen. Closed above Max Pain by a nickel, then .11, then .10 (keeps moving with F5).
I'm missing the last 1 min bar.... anyone see it?

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That was also the time when a cop would pull you over for doing only 3-4 mph over the speed limit. Tough times. Today, in my state, they only pull you over if you are going >10 mph over the limit, and most people are doing 15 mph over. 🏎️
I remember a time when 20 over in Georgia got you 48 hours in jail BEFORE you saw the judge.
 
That's a first that I've seen. Closed above Max Pain by a nickel, then .11, then .10 (keeps moving with F5).
I'm missing the last 1 min bar.... anyone see it?

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I believe the going theory for today is they flushed out both the puts and the calls today at either end by the aggressive dip this morning and then the recovery to just over $180 - summarized; made gobs of money at both ends; yeah Team!
 
High-density passenger transport was discussed in Master Plan Part Deux. As far as we know this is still the plan.



Reasoning by analogy to assume that diesel to electric transition for busses will be a one-for-one substitution will lead to wrong conclusions. Unfortunately, this is exactly what most people are doing, including transit planners and policymakers.

The major portion of the cost structure of traditional busses is the driver compensation and the operation and maintenance costs of the diesel powertrain, both of which favor having a smaller number of larger busses in order to exploit economies of scale. Autonomous electric busses, with zero driver expenses and perhaps 75% lower O&M costs would change this calculus in favor of smaller minibusses/vans with:
  • higher percentage of seats actually occupied
  • no center aisle wasting space and materials
  • greater number of stops/stations in the service network yet more express-like service
  • coverage further out away from the urban core deeper into the suburbs

Boring company is a huge wildcard in predicting where this is headed. If you believe it will succeed and scale quickly, then “public mass transit” might actually change to being mostly single or dual passenger minicars with some mix of larger sizes up to perhaps 16 passengers per vehicle max. More than 16 is probably unnecessary for a major route served by one or more Loop trunk lines, because that’s already sufficient to beat every train line in existence, and that’s not hyperbole.

In 2019, Elon mentioned a 1-second headway as being feasible, which would imply 57k passengers per hour per lane with a 16-pax van. I think 1-second is plausible with autonomous operation and the ridiculously tight control and security of the tunnels. Humans today typically do about 2 or 2.5 seconds between vehicles on highways. Autonomy eliminates about 1 to 1.5 seconds of human reaction time. We can debate a few tenths of a second here and there, but even with 1.5 second headway the numbers still look great.

View attachment 918536

Here’s some rough estimates I’ve done of potential AEV throughput in a Loop compared with high-volume train or bus lines. To a close approximation, Passengers/hour = Passengers/vehicle * Vehicles/hour = Pax/veh * (3600 sec/hr) / (Sec of headway between vehicles)

View attachment 918537

Although a 12-16 passenger robovan would hold about 4x fewer people than a bus, the Loop system more than compensates for this by winning on headway by at least an order of magnitude—if not two orders of magnitude—relative to actual real-world bus lines than usually have at least a few minutes between busses.
While understanding Elon's position, which you defend well, that still ignores the vast majority of large cities in the world which are densely populated and have large proportions of the population commuting for work. Those needs do not adapt well to core requirements. However, in nearly all those cities there are large volumes of mini-busses that serve both suburban concentrations, spoke and core functions and numerous smaller busses/mini-busses used for both school transportation, handicapped services and employer services. Realistically none of those, even with eventual automation, will replace larger ones. Many of them, especially school, emergency medical, and other categories will not be completely automated very soon, since their operations are wildly variable and likely to remain so until Star Trek style synthetics arrive.

In the real world of the next decade at a minimum, electrifying bus fleets will provide huge economies and environmental benefits. We should not expect to have operating autonomy in these applications within the operating life of vehicles manufactured within the next decade. After all we are sometime away from level 3 autonomy in controlled access highways, much less urban main roads.
 
You are right that Artful Dodger was on a different thought path, I just wanted to extend the conversation on to the next level.

I'm not as worried about the frequency as I am the SIM. Will it be able to authenticate on the Tmobile network with the existing SIM or will every car have to go in for a sim swap? Does it have a physical SIM or is it an E-SIM?

Next level if they have to swap sims they might as well swap radios to get a newer radio in the loop. I don't know if a swap is required, but newer hardware might handle it better even if the old hardware can do the right band(s).

If they can switch it would seem they would be planning to do so. SpaceX will be have peering agreements with Tmobile and once that goes live it'll be cheaper and more functional to use that network (from Elon's view or SpaceX's view, maybe a wash for Tesla?). I agree the sat is not the primary source but if peering agreements are in place it seems right to switch away from AT&T and towards T-Mobile if the cost to Tesla is close to the same and the added backup path to sat increases coverage.
Ah, yeah SIMplications of provider switching. It's likely a card swap is needed. HW3 has an eSIM, but that seems to be for Tesla use (diagnostis and such).
Tesla Model 3 US – LTE modem replacement (And some reverse engineering)

We also need to keep in mind that Tesla is not SpaceX and that SpaceX was talking with two cellular providers and has recently referred to cell backhaul as a use case.
 
You may be right about some people as passengers, however I suspect others will be gnashing their teeth and worrying over every minute. Not everyone will react the same way.

My guess is it will be "most" rather than "some" as I'm one of the gnashers myself, and those that make me gnash seem to make up the lion's share of existing drivers.

All of whom I expect will easily gravitate to autonomy because it is obvious that they already have no interest in driving. 🤷‍♂️
 
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Wrong. You are badly misinterpreting.

FSD + Humans is safer than just humans. FSD is atleast 100x less safe than humans currently.

ps : My last comment on this for today. Anyone who is wondering what the actual status of FSD currently is - pls visit and read those of us who are into the weeds in the autopilot sub-forum.
I don’t know what there is to interpret, do you not see how much longer the top bar is?!
 
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It makes me wonder if Tesla will eventually start building in some type of geofencing, because I think it could perform pretty well in good weather and certain road types but getting good stats and solid performance on other road types and everything else required for a true generalized robotaxi seems so far away.

This could be done partially, and very dynamically...
I was always interested in my old AP1 car with how many different levels of confidence it had in the system. Perfect was 2 blue lines on the lane, less confident was 1 blue line, not confident was no lines, but just a handle on the car in front of me...right down until it would cut out and return control...

Maybe FSD has a ton more levels internally. I bet it has a confidence rating for how safely it feels it is handling the situation. Good weather, good visibility, straight road, clear lane markings... 100%. Same but eroded marking.... 99%, same but 1 camera blinded.... 95%...

With some vehicle-vehicle communication, FSD could build up dynamic zones of high confidence. Just like the cars can now share information on road threats like potholes, the fleet could look at a stretch of road, and notice that 10 Teslas in the last hour all sped down that road on autopilot just fine, all at 100% confidence. In that case, as you approach, FSD could signal this to you. "Relax! You can take your hands off the wheel for now". :D
 
I don’t know what there is to interpret, do you not see how much longer the top bar is?!
It's just over 6x longer, but it's a different scale so it's not apples to apples comparable.

The top bar is FSD + Humans

The bottom bar is Humans

There is no bar for FSD on it's own. That might be between the two or it might be worse than humans, we just don't know.
 
On the topic of competition is coming(TM)!

Polestar released its earnings for 2022: 51K cars delivered, $1.3B operating loss

I would put those earnings in the category of not bad...if it was an American company using American workers and supply chain.

I honestly don't know how Elon managed to make over 400M of gross profit on 20k cars with battery packs 8x the price and using American workers. No wonder accounting fraud always comes up because it makes no sense.
 
I would put those earnings in the category of not bad...if it was an American company using American workers and supply chain.

I honestly don't know how Elon managed to make over 400M of gross profit on 20k cars with battery packs 8x the price and using American workers. No wonder accounting fraud always comes up because it makes no sense.
You might want to study the manufacturing, sourcing, distribution and sales processes. Then study a bit about Tesla battery management systems. Those might give clues. You might then honestly know why only Ferrari and, sometimes, Porsche come close to Tesla margins. It makes no sense if you equate Tesla to other OEMs.
 
The Boring Company, of course, is trying to change the geometry problem, but that's a project of decades.
Many cities have trams, and a tram is a good from of public transport.

Dedicate a lane to Robotaxi vans, and a similar result can be achieved with no need for tracks. Better still. the dispatch (AI) algorithm for the vans can consider current and predicted passengers at each stop. Ideally vans picking up new passengers are at the end of the platooning group, while those leading the group only stop when a passenger wants to get off at a stop, Overall there should be fewer stops, with reduced wait and travel times compared to tram.

This is a good interim solution until we have Boring tunnels, and it perhaps an acceptable use of a road lane even when we have tunnels.
 
GM Strategy

How It Started: “We’re going to use the fat profits from ICE sales to build our EV business”

How it’s going:
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Had to read that twice — “select 2022 in stock”. GM started making 2023 trucks back in September didn’t they? Tesla has 4 days inventory build up and people wet themselves. GM Dealerships are hanging onto 6 month old stock and not a peep from the CareBears?

Checked my local dealership and sure enough all Silverados are $5,200 - $7,700 off and 4 of the 24 are 2022 vehicles.

Question in my mind is. Are all the people who bought a Silverado last month going to get a $5,000 check in the mail since they lowered the price?
 
People want the car to see through fog, to have cameras where the front lights are to see over blind spots humans cant, and they want every cm measured and the entire city mapped. If xray vision is avaliable people want that in their cars too. Only thing missing a is red cape with a S symbol on it.

Or the world can just reduce their driving speed..but no we can't have that.
The NT in Australia traditionally had a simple rule instead of speed limits, "drive to the conditions".

Or alternatively "reduce speed when visibility is reduced, or the road surface is sub-optimal".

So on a fine clear sunny day with no glare, and a good road surface, the Robotaxi can drive a normal speed.

In rain, fog, snow or with glare from a setting sun or car headlights, the Robotaxi might need to drive a bit slower to suit the conditions.

A lot of accidents happen because humans do not vary their driving style according to the conditions.
 
It's simply insane that there is still a debate about Tesla and it's dominance when they are literally the only company that makes profit on EVs, and massive profits at that. Some will argue that BYD does but I'm not convinced.
I assume by when you say "Some" argue BYD makes profits on it's EVs....it's a certain Twitter account 🙃

Literally no one else in the world think BYD makes any profit on their EV's.