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I remember a time when 20 over in Georgia got you 48 hours in jail BEFORE you saw the judge.That was also the time when a cop would pull you over for doing only 3-4 mph over the speed limit. Tough times. Today, in my state, they only pull you over if you are going >10 mph over the limit, and most people are doing 15 mph over.
I believe the going theory for today is they flushed out both the puts and the calls today at either end by the aggressive dip this morning and then the recovery to just over $180 - summarized; made gobs of money at both ends; yeah Team!That's a first that I've seen. Closed above Max Pain by a nickel, then .11, then .10 (keeps moving with F5).
I'm missing the last 1 min bar.... anyone see it?
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While understanding Elon's position, which you defend well, that still ignores the vast majority of large cities in the world which are densely populated and have large proportions of the population commuting for work. Those needs do not adapt well to core requirements. However, in nearly all those cities there are large volumes of mini-busses that serve both suburban concentrations, spoke and core functions and numerous smaller busses/mini-busses used for both school transportation, handicapped services and employer services. Realistically none of those, even with eventual automation, will replace larger ones. Many of them, especially school, emergency medical, and other categories will not be completely automated very soon, since their operations are wildly variable and likely to remain so until Star Trek style synthetics arrive.High-density passenger transport was discussed in Master Plan Part Deux. As far as we know this is still the plan.
Reasoning by analogy to assume that diesel to electric transition for busses will be a one-for-one substitution will lead to wrong conclusions. Unfortunately, this is exactly what most people are doing, including transit planners and policymakers.
The major portion of the cost structure of traditional busses is the driver compensation and the operation and maintenance costs of the diesel powertrain, both of which favor having a smaller number of larger busses in order to exploit economies of scale. Autonomous electric busses, with zero driver expenses and perhaps 75% lower O&M costs would change this calculus in favor of smaller minibusses/vans with:
- higher percentage of seats actually occupied
- no center aisle wasting space and materials
- greater number of stops/stations in the service network yet more express-like service
- coverage further out away from the urban core deeper into the suburbs
Boring company is a huge wildcard in predicting where this is headed. If you believe it will succeed and scale quickly, then “public mass transit” might actually change to being mostly single or dual passenger minicars with some mix of larger sizes up to perhaps 16 passengers per vehicle max. More than 16 is probably unnecessary for a major route served by one or more Loop trunk lines, because that’s already sufficient to beat every train line in existence, and that’s not hyperbole.
In 2019, Elon mentioned a 1-second headway as being feasible, which would imply 57k passengers per hour per lane with a 16-pax van. I think 1-second is plausible with autonomous operation and the ridiculously tight control and security of the tunnels. Humans today typically do about 2 or 2.5 seconds between vehicles on highways. Autonomy eliminates about 1 to 1.5 seconds of human reaction time. We can debate a few tenths of a second here and there, but even with 1.5 second headway the numbers still look great.
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Here’s some rough estimates I’ve done of potential AEV throughput in a Loop compared with high-volume train or bus lines. To a close approximation, Passengers/hour = Passengers/vehicle * Vehicles/hour = Pax/veh * (3600 sec/hr) / (Sec of headway between vehicles)
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Although a 12-16 passenger robovan would hold about 4x fewer people than a bus, the Loop system more than compensates for this by winning on headway by at least an order of magnitude—if not two orders of magnitude—relative to actual real-world bus lines than usually have at least a few minutes between busses.
Ah, yeah SIMplications of provider switching. It's likely a card swap is needed. HW3 has an eSIM, but that seems to be for Tesla use (diagnostis and such).You are right that Artful Dodger was on a different thought path, I just wanted to extend the conversation on to the next level.
I'm not as worried about the frequency as I am the SIM. Will it be able to authenticate on the Tmobile network with the existing SIM or will every car have to go in for a sim swap? Does it have a physical SIM or is it an E-SIM?
Next level if they have to swap sims they might as well swap radios to get a newer radio in the loop. I don't know if a swap is required, but newer hardware might handle it better even if the old hardware can do the right band(s).
If they can switch it would seem they would be planning to do so. SpaceX will be have peering agreements with Tmobile and once that goes live it'll be cheaper and more functional to use that network (from Elon's view or SpaceX's view, maybe a wash for Tesla?). I agree the sat is not the primary source but if peering agreements are in place it seems right to switch away from AT&T and towards T-Mobile if the cost to Tesla is close to the same and the added backup path to sat increases coverage.
You may be right about some people as passengers, however I suspect others will be gnashing their teeth and worrying over every minute. Not everyone will react the same way.
I don’t know what there is to interpret, do you not see how much longer the top bar is?!Wrong. You are badly misinterpreting.
FSD + Humans is safer than just humans. FSD is atleast 100x less safe than humans currently.
ps : My last comment on this for today. Anyone who is wondering what the actual status of FSD currently is - pls visit and read those of us who are into the weeds in the autopilot sub-forum.
It makes me wonder if Tesla will eventually start building in some type of geofencing, because I think it could perform pretty well in good weather and certain road types but getting good stats and solid performance on other road types and everything else required for a true generalized robotaxi seems so far away.
It's just over 6x longer, but it's a different scale so it's not apples to apples comparable.I don’t know what there is to interpret, do you not see how much longer the top bar is?!
I would put those earnings in the category of not bad...if it was an American company using American workers and supply chain.On the topic of competition is coming(TM)!
Polestar released its earnings for 2022: 51K cars delivered, $1.3B operating loss
It's simply insane that there is still a debate about Tesla and it's dominance when they are literally the only company that makes profit on EVs, and massive profits at that. Some will argue that BYD does but I'm not convinced.On the topic of competition is coming(TM)!
Polestar released its earnings for 2022: 51K cars delivered, $1.3B operating loss
I honestly don't know how Elon managed to make over 400M of gross profit on 20k cars with battery packs 8x the price
You might want to study the manufacturing, sourcing, distribution and sales processes. Then study a bit about Tesla battery management systems. Those might give clues. You might then honestly know why only Ferrari and, sometimes, Porsche come close to Tesla margins. It makes no sense if you equate Tesla to other OEMs.I would put those earnings in the category of not bad...if it was an American company using American workers and supply chain.
I honestly don't know how Elon managed to make over 400M of gross profit on 20k cars with battery packs 8x the price and using American workers. No wonder accounting fraud always comes up because it makes no sense.
Many cities have trams, and a tram is a good from of public transport.The Boring Company, of course, is trying to change the geometry problem, but that's a project of decades.
The NT in Australia traditionally had a simple rule instead of speed limits, "drive to the conditions".People want the car to see through fog, to have cameras where the front lights are to see over blind spots humans cant, and they want every cm measured and the entire city mapped. If xray vision is avaliable people want that in their cars too. Only thing missing a is red cape with a S symbol on it.
Or the world can just reduce their driving speed..but no we can't have that.
I assume by when you say "Some" argue BYD makes profits on it's EVs....it's a certain Twitter accountIt's simply insane that there is still a debate about Tesla and it's dominance when they are literally the only company that makes profit on EVs, and massive profits at that. Some will argue that BYD does but I'm not convinced.