Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Xpert]

All nonsense atm. This kind of half-full thinking is what kills small investors right now.
And many people may prefer riding in a Tesla, but not at a premium. People riding Uber/Lyft just want to get to their next destination as cheap as possible.

I think this is a great idea, tesla network Does not need to be at a huge premium, in fact can be competitive with uber/lyft. They do not need to take a huge profit split from drivers but just enough to cover cost. Also no advertising $$$ to acquire drivers and riders. And It could take only a couple weeks to complete the app since they are already managing all tesla cars OTA.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

it's just hard to say "full FSD in a year" and expect people to really buy in to that when you're disclosing at the same time roughly that gigafactory pack production is still a problem

Also presumably hard to expect people to buy into having full following of navigation on the freeway, including lane changed, without human interaction during that period?

 

[carterm2]

Sorry folks,

With all the tweets and good vibes over the weekend, I decided it was a emotional high mark for the stock and decided to sell 5% of my Tesla shares. I am done now so... relief is on the way...

did I mention I work at MS?

 

[Matias]

So that video was CGI then?

There’s 35 pages discussion about that subject.

FSD video completely fake?

 

[Alphacrux]

Then you probably got yourself some more TSLA today. They often buy on these dips.

Exactly. They seem to have good returns by trading the volatility. If TSLA takes off, they'll still participate.

 

[Causalien]

Really skeptical of 500k deliveries. Assuming tsla historical delivery of 50% every year. Q2 should be 90k, q3 is 120k, q4 is 120k and next q1 should be 90k. That is only 420k. So 80k Miracle needed.

So about 26% more improvement than the past 12 months. Which translate to back of napkin annual delivery improvement of 76.6%

 

[EVMeister]

Really skeptical of 500k deliveries. Assuming tsla historical delivery of 50% every year. Q2 should be 90k, q3 is 120k, q4 is 120k and next q1 should be 90k. That is only 420k. So 80k Miracle needed.

So about 26% more improvement than the past 12 months. Which translate to back of napkin annual delivery improvement of 76.6%

Did you forget about the China Gigafactory hopefully coming online and pumping out cars later in the year? I mean, that's a whole new Gigafactory coming online.

 

[bdy0627]

That is 2016 video.

Did the car park itself without a driver at the end of the video previously, or is that new?

 

[azaz]

There is nothing wrong with pack production other than supply that is out of their control. Panasonic is having cell production problems. And there is nothing Tesla/Elon can do about that, Panasonic has to solve their own problems.

I know, but a narrative and prevailing wisdom has formed that Tesla has trouble executing, especially on time. Especially on something like AP/FSD where Elon has made bold proclamations before only to not meet them (cross country drive in I think 2017 it was supposed to be)

 

[Lycanthrope]

There’s 35 pages discussion about that subject.

FSD video completely fake?

*If* they've hard-coded the route, doesn't this make it essentially the same to Waymo's system? Which would already be way better than many are saying...

 

[bdy0627]

Jesus, this is a pit of negativity today, are we all focused on the ends of our noses all of a sudden?

I agree, Elon has cried wolf too many times for the media to believe anything now, the only way his Tweets have impact is to lower the SP. From this point of view he's best to put a lid on it and just deliver the goods, which we know he will, just a matter of when.

This is typically a pretty decent buy signal.

 

[KarenRei]

There’s 35 pages discussion about that subject.

FSD video completely fake?

Or to sum it up: they did what pretty much every self-driving company does with their promotional videos: train to the test on a memorized course, use the recording of your best run, and fancy up the video before release. It's real, in that the car actually did that without driver input, but it's not generalized self driving.

Note that this is the only thing that all of these geofenced "self-driving" companies can do.

 

[bdy0627]

If they could do that in 2016, imagine what's possible three years later...

Yes! Big difference between making a FSD video vs having investors ride in self driving cars this time. Is this event being live streamed?

 

[pnungesser]

That is 2016 video.

If that accurately portrays where they were in 2016, where must they be now?

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Ah, so that’s what’s going on here: everyone is assuming none of these statements got approval.

Implying Elon will ever get "approval" for anything he tweets.

 

[elasalle]

Or to sum it up: they did what pretty much every self-driving company does with their promotional videos: train to the test on a memorized course, use the recording of your best run, and fancy up the video before release. It's real, in that the car actually did that without driver input, but it's not generalized self driving.

Note that this is the only thing that all of these geofenced "self-driving" companies can do.

EM has repeatedly said that they could do FSD on know routes etc, by these kinds of tricks, but that was not something he wanted to do - ..
context was a while back when asked whether they can do coast to coast FSD demo.

 

[MP3Mike]

Really skeptical of 500k deliveries.

Not to be pedantic, but he didn't say 500k deliveries. He said "Tesla will make over 500k cars in next 12 months"

 

[bdy0627]

it's just hard to say "full FSD in a year" and expect people to really buy in to that when you're disclosing at the same time roughly that gigafactory pack production is still a problem

They should be able to produce 6,000+ model 3 per week with current cell capacity. They will need to be selective about the trim mix to get there, but that's not terrible. They were only guiding for 7,000 out of Fremont by end of year. This battery shortage seems like a pretty temporary issue that should improve every month. It shouldn't really change where Tesla should be in 6 months.

 

[wipster]

The market is not buyiing the appreciating asset vision.
If you can’t make the batteries, the rest is a mute point...

So you're saying if you can't make the batteries you can't talk about it?

That is truly a moot point.

 

[Matias]

Did the car park itself without a driver at the end of the video previously, or is that new?

Self parking was also on 2016. I repeat, this video has been on Tesla’s web page since late 2016.