Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Words of HABIT]

As a Museum ?

At my local annual country fair, by the entrance, there is on display antique tractors, machinery and equipment. Working demonstrations from a past era. I can't help but think that in a few short years from now, the fair will add a Toyota Tundra and a GM Yukon to the mix.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

Brasil now uses CCS2 and probably will not easily change despite the tiny infrastructure today.
OTOH, were Tesla and Ford both want the Tesla connector (if it’s not called North America Charging Standard) so long as they’d make major Mercosur investments and specifically Brasil also.
OTOH they’d most likely do better with CCS2 and major local investment in exchange for tax advantages, so maintaining present commonality with the EU.

only my opinions…not necessarily correct. FWIW I personally don’t mind CCS except in the US where maintenance is so very poor and users so frequently break the connectors. The existing few in Brasil seem to be well maintained, I have not yet found an inoperative charger in my two years with a BEV in Rio de Janeiro. However the ‘fast’ ones are mostly only on a few major highways and are thus far all 50kW AFAIK.

Everyone I know assumes we’ll only have a decent charging network when Tesla brings it. Volvo, Porsche and BMW have installed a few L2, and BYD has established charging infrastructure for busses. Enel keeps promising but never seems to deliver.

Just assume Tesla will use NACS for North America, Japan and South Korea, GBT for China, and CCS2 everywhere else.

With CCS2 Tesla can easily introduce the vehicles into smaller markets, even in a large country like Brazil.

 

[SOULPEDL]

Got the "Software Update Available" notice in my Model Y on Saturday morning. Installed the update, and voilà, FSD beta 11.4.2 in da house! Also moved from the 2022.x branch to 2023.7.10 for the car O/S (I think this is important so standard autopilot can become a subset of the full FSD stack; We'll see soon I think, especially because of all the safety features such as collision avoidance).

So after installation, I put 350 km on the new FSD beta on Sat. afternoon+evening, mix of city** and highway w. an intercity trip, and I have this one takeaway: Is Hella Good! Lot's of prior trouble spots addressed (ie: phantom braking); and new features such as a notable improvement in advance staging for routing via timely, appropriate lane selection. This sucker thinks ahead now (up to a mile ahead for multiple required lane changes after merging on an expressway then exiting within a short distance). Great progress here!

To sum up, my 1st drive with FSD Beta v11.4.2 was smooth, comfortable, and confident. Thereby, my trip was relaxing and enjoyable. Dinner and a chauffeured sunset cruise on a beautiful Summer evening; it don't get better than that.

Thanks, Elon and the Tesla AP team. Y'all Rock!
**did I mention that AEB prevented a full-frontal collision from an idiot's illegal u-turn within the 1st block on this trip? Yeah, that happened too! No problemo... for Beta!

We’re at SunCatcher’s guest house visiting - GigaPress’s old room. We moved our vehicle closer to his wifi late last night… update complete! Going to need to prove some things today. The phantom braking was truly annoying if not dangerous. So looking forward and thanks for your update!

 

[2daMoon]

I was referring to national requirements for providing electricity for L2 charging. In Europe it must be 3-phase above a certain power level. The level may vary from one country to another, but IIRC single phase can only be used for up to 3-7 kW. This requires the 3-phase capable Type 2 connector for L2 charging at home and at public L2 chargers.

With Type 2 being required for L2, then the only decent choice for DC fast charging is CCS2.

GSP

What I was suggesting (if 3-phase is unavailable) is that the battery provide the required 3-phase power to the chargers. The battery would be recharged over idle time with power from a lower capacity utility line and/or solar, wind, etc. as appropriate for the location.

If so, this would meet the national requirement as a Megapack (or other) battery could serve as the 3-phase "service provider" without having to bring a 3-phase utility line to the site.

As for the charging connector itself, well, that standard may need review. Particularly if the requirements were implemented purposefully to deter EV adoption by hog-tying the charger's operation. (I defer to others' background on the history of the standards there)

In the long run the financial incentive of lower cost electricity due to solar/battery economics will overcome the status quo grappling to maintain a stranglehold on transitioning to renewables (and the agony of reduced profits). The momentum of lower cost power will lead to reasonable requirements for charging being implemented, will it not?

 

[unk45]

If Brazil requires 3-phase power for loads in the 10-20 kW range, like Europe does, then they will need to stick with Type 2 and CCS2 connectors. If not, then maybe the NACS has a chance.

GSP

Brazil has both single and three phase 220v and three phase 380v. In some places, perhaps bizarrely, such as my house, there are single and three phase 220v plus 380v. Generally throughout the country 380v/three phase is commonly available in places where public chargers are probable. For Tesla the infrastructure for support of Superchargers is rapidly improving, with major support from Chinese suppliers as well as from State Grid. In fact many countries outside the EU and NA are depending on Chinese technical resources for electrical infrastructure. Thus far that process seems to be evolving towards an EU-style ‘harmonization’ in which grid infrastructure tends towards commonality but local plug ‘standards’ (‘because /s, diversity reigns supreme) vary. Just as multiple BEV charging standards exist, the drive to commonality is mostly from OEM’s and those, including Chinese ones, are tending towards CCS2.

Tesla, even by naming their own NACS, have implicitly accepted CCS2 where applicable and others where applicable. The very name itself makes it clear that Tesla has limited appetite for arguing standards globally, obviously, since Tesla has long been a member of CharIN.

As TSLA shareholders the significance of the Ford deal is only US-based for NACS. Even for Canadá and Mexico the plug question might differ. For us, the issue is primarily opening the network and generate incremental profitable energy sales. The Tesla connector question is really US-centric. Why? Because Tesla has already built the majority of US working chargers to that standard. I think the US is the only major market where that has been true.

So, I think we should pay attention to evergy revenue rather than plug type.

 

[GhostSkater]

Should have named it ACS

 

[wws]

Just assume Tesla will use NACS for North America, Japan and South Korea, GBT for China, and CCS2 everywhere else.

With CCS2 Tesla can easily introduce the vehicles into smaller markets, even in a large country like Brazil.

If one reads the NACS spec, it uses CCS protocols electrically and digitally for communications. So it really comes down to the physical plug. And, of course, Teslas can also communicate using the traditional (e.g., V2 CANbus based) Supercharging protocol. Still unclear to me if/when Ford cars would be able to use the traditional communications.

Since the CCS 2 connector eliminates the locking reliably and safety issues of CCS 1, as well as supporting 3-phase AC charging, there seems to be less need to replace it.

 

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - yesterday:
The Tesla Model Y Is Now The World's Bestselling Car

 

[insaneoctane]

When FSD becomes a reality, I think Tesla will not license it for a period of years to reap maximum value as a unique attribute of Tesla vehicles. Then, maybe a license to other OEM's. As with the Ford supercharger deal, OEM's will need to update their cars hardware (camera/sensor suite) and software systems to allow FSD integration--a big lift. Might as well have Tesla supply the whole car software. Hey, wait a minute...!

While, as a stockholder, I would prefer Tesla to initially keep FSD to themselves for a period, in order to maximize profits and exclusivity... the raw data needed to justify regulatory approval will need to show that FSD results in significantly fewer crashes and deaths. It seems to me that not sharing the lifesaving technology (for profit) will likely be difficult for Tesla to justify.

 

[insaneoctane]

https://fordauthority.com/2023/05/2024-ford-f-150-will-have-2400-fewer-parts/

^Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery. Ford at least trying to avoid bankruptcy via reducing complexity. Tesla's example may actually save the auto industry - it certainly is leaving other auto makers without a real excuse. Adapt or die... Or keep "leading" by getting bailouts for incompetence, Mary.

Edit: to connect this to the market - this has been a dumb criticism of Tesla in the past - not enough options. But an established company trying to catch up with Tesla's simplicity suggests that at least some CEO's think their approach is wise. I don't think this moves stock price on its own, since most investors seem to be terrible at extrapolation but to me Tesla's drive to simplify has been a strong positive marker for my analysis. If Ford follows, though, maybe the 'herd' will notice and realize Tesla's advantage.

Must be nice to be able to copy your answers straight off the Valedictorian's test from years ago. The only reason one wouldn't is pride or stupidity. Kudos to Ford for their actions of late. If they continue to do non-stupid things, they'll have an actual change to survive this disruption.

 

[Krugerrand]

While, as a stockholder, I would prefer Tesla to initially keep FSD to themselves for a period, in order to maximize profits and exclusivity... the raw data needed to justify regulatory approval will need to show that FSD results in significantly fewer crashes and deaths. It seems to me that not sharing the lifesaving technology (for profit) will likely be difficult for Tesla to justify.

I continue to battle with myself that ultimately it’s a good thing that human safety is the first priority of Tesla. Neither side has won.

 

[TN Mtn Man]

Wow. That should be labeled as an ad for Toyota.

Why not, they probably paid for it.

 

[Dutchie]

I disagree with this logic. There is very high auto usage between most major southern cities and between numerous cities in other regions. Your logic is analogous to suggesting that US 48 States will not have much road traffic because it’s mountainous in many areas. Middle class Brazilians travel by road extensively. A doorman fir part of my family traveled by road twice a year from Rio de Janeiro to Recife and back. Look it up. That is a quite popular route during vacations, as is from major southern cities to Salvador.

in nearly every large country people often drive between large cities and tourist destinations or distant homes. I know of very few exceptions. Having driven from Paris to Tehran forty years ago, and from Pattaya to Singapore a few years earlier, I regard BEV infrastructure as crucial everywhere. Seriously, check out the road trip some time ago with two Teslas going from Chengdu IIRC, to Mount Everest Base Camp entirely with Superchargers,

Let us not misunderstand, build the Supercharger network and Tesla sakes will grow, just as Elon has often said. Conclusion, most people completely misunderstand the Tesla addressable market because they assume people will or cannot pay. That misses the market.

Twenty million a year is NOT ‘pie in the sky’. Obviously there are impediments. There always are.

Wow, please chill. It was just a question. I started with “I wonder..”. I am no expert in Brazilian travel but I do know something about that country.

 

[insaneoctane]

.... I just looked at the most recent previous 4 weeks of Friday closings by browsing through past posts at my Papafox's Daily TSLA Trading Charts thread. ...

Just wanted to give @Papafox a shout out for his thread. Every night, I look to see if he's posted his daily analysis before I run out of reading stamina and call it a night. I would suggest it ought to be mandatory reading for this thread. Thanks for your continued insight @Papafox !

 

[unk45]

Wow, please chill. It was just a question. I started with “I wonder..”. I am no expert in Brazilian travel but I do know something about that country.

I'm sorry about being strident. During the last three days I've had similar question from others too. I do the the fundamental issue for Tesla is that they are so entirely different from other choices that they're dramatically increasing the BEV market everywhere they go, in the process altering some quite fundamental driving habits. By history that seems to have been essentially generated by obviously large-scale charging facilities. It seems to me that pattern is quite likely to repeat itself everywhere Tesla goes.

From that perspective Brazil's just another country, albeit a big one.
The primary challenge is to maintain the market expansion within formerly smaller price points, as happened ten years ago with Model S, and as has been continuing with other models.

 

[EVNow]

As for @EVNow 's contention that those of us who believe in market maker manipulations are conspiracy theorists, so be it. I wear that dubious title with pride.

Just because some conspiracy theories may be true - doesn't mean any and all conspiracy theories are true !

MMs will always do delta-hedging. Otherwise they will be carrying very high risk and they are not allowed to carry that kind of risk. Delta hedging is fully automated. Atleast in the places I worked for.

Just this Friday closing price was so much higher than "max pain" How about NVidia's closing price after 25% increase. You might as well start telling us how Bill G puts 5G chips in vaccines.

 

[Dutchie]

I'm sorry about being strident. During the last three days I've had similar question from others too. I do the the fundamental issue for Tesla is that they are so entirely different from other choices that they're dramatically increasing the BEV market everywhere they go, in the process altering some quite fundamental driving habits. By history that seems to have been essentially generated by obviously large-scale charging facilities. It seems to me that pattern is quite likely to repeat itself everywhere Tesla goes.

From that perspective Brazil's just another country, albeit a big one.
The primary challenge is to maintain the market expansion within formerly smaller price points, as happened ten years ago with Model S, and as has been continuing with other models.

No worries. i am always looking forward to your posts. I love Brazil by the way, love the music, language and culture. Visited the country many times.

 

[unk45]

Edit: unk45 beat me to it

While driving to the north tip to the south is not common, the bottom half trips are quite common between the cities you cited and more, so at least need a solid charging network

Think like it was on the US, there was solid Superchargers coverage across the whole east and west coast before the corridors between the two got less sparse, so something like that is the way here

Indeed, and that suggests that when Tesla enters Mercosur, the initial huge supercharger push probably needs to have similar early absolute numbers much like those fo the US in late 2015, quickly building to about NA in late 2018. Crucial first paths probably include Buenos Aires/Uruguay/SP/RG/MG/PR/Brasilia/ES which in aggregate look pretty much like the first Pacific Coast/East Coast US paths. With present Tesla capacities that coverage would be quite feasible and could transform BEV utility and practicality for the most important parts of Mercosur. Chile is a special case, of course, but might merit serious attention, especially since Santiago has the largest Electric Bus fleet in the world outside China. That alone helps establish BEV merits in influential sectors. Were that to be included it would require only another 40-50 Superchargers to cover the most traffic intense areas of the country, including end-to-end, a powerful sales image rather similar, logically to mainland China to Mount Everest Base Camp (i.e. not much used but delivers the 'go anywhere' message like nothing else).

We can follow quite similar logic in numerous other regions where Tesla is not presently selling. From Southern Africa, the Gulf Sates and Saudi Arabia, to the already existing Morocco , Bulgaria, Turkey beginnings it's clear that Elon's commentary about multiple smaller markets adding up, can be facilitated with Supercharger build outs just before a sales push, essentially as reflects existing Tesla paractice. The only difference is that each of these new markets will her local rules that will be 'delicate' and local purchase incentives that will be necessary. Many negotiating tricks!

 

[JRP3]

Elon sees BYD as highly competitive now as opposed to the past when he mocked them. Oddly enough I was thinking about that old interview recently in light of Tesla using BYD batteries.

Elon Musk admits BYD cars ‘are highly competitive these days’ after 2011 clip shows him laughing at the rival now trouncing Tesla in China

“I don’t think they have a great product," Musk said of BYD in 2011, adding it wasn't a Tesla competitor in his mind.

www.yahoo.com

 

[ClimateOptimst]

There is a great book about the lifestory of rockerfeller, which charts the early days of oil. Its notable for the sudden realisation after a while that actually OH MY GOD, there may be oil somewhere other than pennsylvania!

People havent been looking for battery materials for very logn, its never been important. I trust Tesla when they tell uis the raw materials are no problem. They have a huge vested interest in getting that right.

TITAN is likely the books name, documenting the life of J.D. Rockefeller and rise of Standard Oil. Worth a read as in some ways it foreshadows where the Musk & Tesla story may be headed. History doesn't repeat itself but understanding how it rhymes is oftentimes useful...