Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[printf42]

OT: (or maybe not)
I started a poll
Poll: Did you buy EAP or FSD when they were discounted at 3k+2k?
Would really appreciate you to vote there, seems this thread has high traffic of existing owners.
(But please be aware result of this poll is going to be biased, because people who frequent this forum might represent more early adopters than average owners)

 

[M3Rider]

No doubt this is a concern for some people. My question would be, what is the best approach to dealing with it? Spend the money on a bigger, heavier, less efficient, more expensive vehicle...or...spend that money on a denser, faster, charging network that would benefit all owners? The answer for some may very well be the first choice but I don't see it as the best choice for the company. Just my $.02

Dan

The way I see it, when a family goes on a road trip, they go in one car.
That means every family can replace 1 of their 2 cars with a 300mi EV right now without sacrificing anything.
If everybody did it, it would provide enough capital to Tesla to expand and R&D to the point where in 4-5 years including MXWL they can make a 400-500mi vehicle with a denser energy and the same battery weight.
It would then be nice if we had an option to replace the old battery with a new 500mi battery for some $5-7k as Elon suggested.
But given the current low production volume and even greater shortages of batteries when the transition from ICE starts, this may not be an easy option - they'll be selling all they have as fast as they can. More profit to sell a new car than a battery w/o the car.
I'm a bit uneasy about 280mi range for Y, but will make it with the 3 and a backup ICE we'll be keeping for a bit.

 

[pnungesser]

How many Teslas do you think are on the latest ship? Here's one calculation.

The draft of the ship increased by 1.3 meters

1.3 meters = 4.27 feet

Length and beam of the ship is 199.94 x 32.26 meters

199.94 x 32.26=6449 sq. meters

6449 sq. meters= 69,416 sq. ft.

Increase in displacement

69,416 sq ft x4.27 ft = 296,406 cu ft

water weights 62.4 lb/cu ft

296,406 cu ft x 62.4 lb/cu ft = 18,495,734 lb

I we assume that at area of the ship at the water line is only 90% of the overall dimension to allow for some slope at the bow and stern then the increased displacement becomes (SWAG):

18,495,734 lb x 90%= 16,646,160 lb increased displacement

If the average weight of M3 is 3900 lb

16,646,160 lb/3900 lb per vehicle = 4268 vehicles

Possible errors/poor assumptions:

• Area of ship at waterline vs overall dimensions at 90%
• Weight of vehicles and mix of vehicles
• Other items loaded than Teslas
• Rounding errors. I should have used a piece of paper.
• I used the density of fresh water instead of salt water but the difference should not be significant considering the other assumptions made.

Here's a starting point for the discussion. I welcome any gentle comments/corrections. It would be great if this were anywhere close to being correct.

 

[UrsS]

What prevents the 2170 battery chemistry from being used in the 18650 cans? Those are just little bottles, what's inside can (and is) changed any time. What am I missing here?
Panasonic makes the 18650 cans in Japan apparently in sufficient quantities for ~ 100,000 S & X so, why not continue, just fill the bottle with the new sauce.

 

[jerry33]

But you don't get that kind of cold in TX ...

No, but the speed limits are 85 so most go 90+ in hot weather with the A/C on. Takes a lot of energy to push all that air.

 

[elasalle]

How many Teslas do you think are on the latest ship? Here's one calculation.

The draft of the ship increased by 1.3 meters

1.3 meters = 4.27 feet

Length and beam of the ship is 199.94 x 32.26 meters

199.94 x 32.26=6449 sq. meters

6449 sq. meters= 69,416 sq. ft.

Increase in displacement

69,416 sq ft x4.27 ft = 296,406 cu ft

water weights 62.4 lb/cu ft

296,406 cu ft x 62.4 lb/cu ft = 18,495,734 lb

I we assume that at area of the ship at the water line is only 90% of the overall dimension to allow for some slope at the bow and stern then the increased displacement becomes (SWAG):

18,495,734 lb x 90%= 16,646,160 lb increased displacement

If the average weight of M3 is 3900 lb

16,646,160 lb/3900 lb per vehicle = 4268 vehicles

Possible errors/poor assumptions:

• Area of ship at waterline vs overall dimensions at 90%
• Weight of vehicles and mix of vehicles
• Other items loaded than Teslas
• Rounding errors. I should have used a piece of paper.
• I used the density of fresh water instead of salt water but the difference should not be significant considering the other assumptions made.

Here's a starting point for the discussion. I welcome any gentle comments/corrections. It would be great if this were anywhere close to being correct.

Ships of all different sizes sailed in prior quarter too
Assume it is 2.5K as that seems to be the number for all of last quarter. If they are any production improvements I would go by 3K.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

If Elon's looking to squeeze the shorts, he's gonna wait until the last hour of trading or after hours to disclose agreement/settlement with SEC.

I guess the investment community has zero faith in Tesla FSD. Pretty amazing that there's no buying pressure considering Tesla market cap and the valuation of Waymo(and Lyft/Uber to an extent).

 

[Dan Detweiler]

How many Teslas do you think are on the latest ship? Here's one calculation.

The draft of the ship increased by 1.3 meters

1.3 meters = 4.27 feet

Length and beam of the ship is 199.94 x 32.26 meters

199.94 x 32.26=6449 sq. meters

6449 sq. meters= 69,416 sq. ft.

Increase in displacement

69,416 sq ft x4.27 ft = 296,406 cu ft

water weights 62.4 lb/cu ft

296,406 cu ft x 62.4 lb/cu ft = 18,495,734 lb

I we assume that at area of the ship at the water line is only 90% of the overall dimension to allow for some slope at the bow and stern then the increased displacement becomes (SWAG):

18,495,734 lb x 90%= 16,646,160 lb increased displacement

If the average weight of M3 is 3900 lb

16,646,160 lb/3900 lb per vehicle = 4268 vehicles

Possible errors/poor assumptions:

• Area of ship at waterline vs overall dimensions at 90%
• Weight of vehicles and mix of vehicles
• Other items loaded than Teslas
• Rounding errors. I should have used a piece of paper.
• I used the density of fresh water instead of salt water but the difference should not be significant considering the other assumptions made.

Here's a starting point for the discussion. I welcome any gentle comments/corrections. It would be great if this were anywhere close to being correct.

There's always that one 8n every crowd that has to overthink everything. lol!

Dan

 

[JRP3]

What prevents the 2170 battery chemistry from being used in the 18650 cans?

Nothing, it's probably the same.

 

[Nocturnal]

That's what I hear from Tesla owner. It's just that non-owner don't know and are misinformed. Having a product that works great (and few very happy customers) isn't enough. Other people need to experience it somehow or have others told them repeatedly that their fear is unjustified.

Yup. I'm sure people who owned horses said the same about early gas cars. "But my horse can just stop and eat grass wherever! Why would I drive something that needs gas? what if I can't find a gas station?"

 

[brantse]

How many Teslas do you think are on the latest ship? Here's one calculation....

Here's a starting point for the discussion. I welcome any gentle comments/corrections. It would be great if this were anywhere close to being correct.

Thanks, that makes a lot of sense and is a great way to estimate. Here are just a few initial thoughts :

-Seawater has a density of approximately 64 lbs/CF.
-You would want to know if they also took on bunkers while in port. I'm not familiar with the port to know if this is typical there
-Ships can and will make draft adjustments by filling/draining ballast tanks. This is typically just to level the ship, but could be another source of error.

 

[Nocturnal]

If Elon's looking to squeeze the shorts, he's gonna wait until the last hour of trading or after hours to disclose agreement/settlement with SEC.

I guess the investment community has zero faith in Tesla FSD. Pretty amazing that there's no buying pressure considering Tesla market cap and the valuation of Waymo(and Lyft/Uber to an extent).

It is definitely bizarre. I can't understand how they think that Waymo could scale their FSD up faster than Tesla can. Millions of FSD capable cars on the road by the time Waymo starts rolling cars out.

 

[Krugerrand]

Bingo, and the roof ain’t goin on till right after the machine is craned in.

Fire Away!

Not how they do it. The press line will come in pieces. They didn’t rip the roof off the Fremont plant to put in the new press lines there. The roof will go on, it’s a wall they won’t finish closing and/or big bay doors.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Were screwed. VW says diesel vehicle making a Renaissance.

Volkswagen Leader Mueller Foresees A Diesel Renaissance

 

[1101011]

Outside of California, are waits even that common? Here in the Midwest I've NEVER had to wait for a supercharger spot. 90% of the time I'm the only guy there.

In 30-40 superchager enabled trips, I've only once had to wait. And that was on a workday at 4:30pm, in a mettropolitan area.

YMMV

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Were screwed. VW says vehicle making a Renaissance.

Volkswagen Leader Mueller Foresees A Diesel Renaissance

What VW really means...…"We have no way of making mass EV's without going into bankruptcy for the next 5-10 years or more. "

It is going to be so ugly for legacy Auto makers when Model Y is launched next fall.

 

[Krugerrand]

Well I have to disagree here. People seem to be in more of a hurry and generally more pissed off.
Now maybe the zen like state I am in(coupled with occasional bouts of G-force giddiness) when I drive my MS will change people....but I doubt it.

No, people really are becoming more relaxed and chiller on their Teslas. I know several people who’ve expressed a change in their driving habits and how they feel about driving.

I’ve always been pretty chill about driving but even I’ve entered a new state of, ‘there’s no need to rush’.

 

[Nocturnal]

What VW really means...…"We have no way of making mass EV's without going into bankruptcy for the next 5-10 years or more. "

It is going to be so ugly for legacy Auto makers when Model Y is launched next fall.

And also "if we don't do EVs we will go bankrupt in 10 years as well"

+ the Tesla pickup, + Rivian etc. Land Rover should be terrified of Rivian. Somebody will do a delivery (like a Sprinter Van) EV sooner or later. That one project with the small 3 wheeled EV for small deliveries looks really promising.

No, people really are becoming more relaxed and chiller on their Teslas. I know several people who’ve expressed a change in their driving habits and how they feel about driving.

I’ve always been pretty chill about driving but even I’ve entered a new state of, ‘there’s no need to rush’.

Yes. On a recent trip it was super cold so I had to take an extra long charging stop. I started to get stressed out, but then said to myself "wait, you are on vacation, go in and have an Irish coffee while you wait for the car to charge". It was relaxing. Not to mention that autopilot makes the whole thing easier and less tiresome.

It really does help you get out of the stressful mindset of "we are making good time, I don't want to stop to pee".

 

[DocZ]

It is definitely bizarre. I can't understand how they think that Waymo could scale their FSD up faster than Tesla can. Millions of FSD capable cars on the road by the time Waymo starts rolling cars out.

I think nobody believes Elon anymore. His bold claims have come back to bite him in the ass. And Tesla is going so far against the grain from a technology standpoint for FSD, a strategy literally no one else is adopting, that it just isn’t believable that they’re going to accomplish FSD.

Even as a long term shareholder and Tesla fanboy, autopilot is cool and everything but I don’t think they can do FSD. The system is still fairly rudimentary and the experience has not been compelling enough to warrant FSD discussion. Just the promise that it might one day make it there via software. I have my doubts.

 

[dhrivnak]

I would say 335 miles of range would be sufficient for more like 99% of people.

Dan

The reason for extra range is towing a camper or toy hauling. Towing easily cuts effective range in half and there are MANY people with a camper, boat or other toy.