Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Todd Burch]

TSLA stock price: stuck in neutral for almost 5 years. Yet these threads have thousands of post, people pouring over information to make decision that so far have not been profitable.

Don't you miss your kids? Don't you miss being productive at your jobs?

I sold my kids to buy TSLA.

I sued my employer for sexual harassment and put my winnings into TSLA.

Still waiting for payday, but I’m confident it’s coming.

Worth it! Vive la Tesla!

 

[Todd Burch]

The article is over a year old. Mueller has been replaced already.

I saw on the news that he came out with some kind of report today.

 

[wipster]

That is an old photo - when Modi visited US and met Musk among others.

I'd not believe that tweet unless confirmed by others. Modi and his fans are spreading fake news 24/7 because of ongoing general elections in India.

Actually a really old picture... look at the"grille" on that S...

 

[TSLA_Hopeful]

I sold my kids to buy TSLA.

I sued my employer for sexual harassment and put my winnings into TSLA.

Still waiting for payday, but I’m confident it’s coming.

Worth it! Vive la Tesla!

I actually told my mother that I'd rather someone accidentally lightly bruise my kid than my car.... the kid would heal much faster than I could get the replacement part.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I see we are mentioning I-PACEs in this thread. So let me just say that I received one today and have shared my early impressions here: Jaguar I-Pace.

Before any of you jump on me, I did not buy it outright and wouldn't do so. I got it for an excellent price on a lease, the sort of deal Tesla would never and will never do. And that's something, as a Tesla investor, I'm glad of. I don't agree with some of the comments above regarding cheap material quality, but it really depends what you're used to and comparing it to I guess.

“Simulated engine noise”? Really?

 

[Prunesquallor]

Once-hailed 'Tesla Killer' Audi e-tron slows down production to just 6 hrs/day: report

"The Audi e-tron, once dubbed by avid Tesla critics as a potential “Tesla Killer,” is reportedly running into production problems due to a constrained supply of batteries and a slower-than-expected delivery of electric motors. These production problems have reportedly caused Audi to postpone the release of its upcoming all-electric car, the e-tron Sportback, to 2020, roughly a year later than its intended 2019 release date."

So, other than batteries and motors, no problem.

 

[Todd Burch]

Additionally, when I said 1000 miles, I meant with the battery size staying the same as today. The Model 3 just got a 15 mile boost from a software change. How many pounds were added to the car?

You have to look at the software change and see how many of the bits are ones and how many are zeroes. The ones obviously weigh more.

 

[BoringUsername]

Q2 '16. On ER (2/22) SP was at 274 (!). SP went to a low of 242 in 3 days.

ps : LOL - disagree on facts ?!

The stock closed 2/22/16 at 177.74. Also, a Q2 ER would not happen in February.

 

[EVNow]

The stock closed 2/22/16 at 177.74. Also, a Q2 ER would not happen in February.

Oh yes - Q4 '16, not Q2 '16. Typo, fixed now.

 

[homer214]

I

My parents really want to switch to EV (currently car is a Lexus RX 450h) but they're too scared of having to wait for hours to (queue for and charge when driving their annual 550+ miles trip.

Why so much range anxiety? Because years ago, they heard from friends who have a Model S 90D that they once preferred to take an ICE for one 500+ miles trip, just because they had a new born and the wife wanted to the trip to be as short as possible. That was years ago but anecdote frighten them so much they are now waiting to hear dozen of positive feedback from other Tesla owners before committing to an EV.

I suggest they rent an ICE car for their annual 550 mile trip.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Weekend Off-Planet:

"Mars Calling: Manifest Destiny or Grand Illusion" 939K views (54:02)​

Cheers!

Published on Jul 23, 2018:

"This film brings together the mythic and the scientific to show that Mars may now be what we imagine. Some believe Mars is the next home for Humanity. But the real “red planet” is a trickster; strikingly beautiful, yet sweetly sinister. Even as a growing armada of instruments arrive, this small cold world continues to conceal its secrets. The technological means to cross space and perhaps bring this small world back to life is just now coming within our grasp. Settlers beware: Mars is likely to change Humanity as much as we change it."​

 

[M3Rider]

No agreement between Musk and SEC, but they are still talking. They are requesting an extension until April 25 to continue negotiating.

https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755/gov.uscourts.nysd.501755.42.0.pdf

Wow.

So, now we have:
1. Investor day 22nd: positive
2. Q1 ER 24th: negative
3. SEC 25th: positive

Question is - what will be SP on 26th and if Elon did the 25th on purpose to sweeten the 24th.

 

[homer214]

Not on the highway it doesn't.

I live in the cold Northeast and drive about 18-20k miles s year. I plug in at home nightly and have only used a supercharger once in the 5 months I’ve owned my M3 - the best car I’ve ever owned.

 

[EVNow]

I want to look into previous earnings where we were trading near the bottom of the range going into an earnings report that was widely expected to be bad. I think I remember a couple times where we actually climbed after the ER.

Here is the snapshot from Q4 '16 to Q4 '18. Set Date is when the ER date was announced.

 

[Skryll]

I

I suggest they rent an ICE car for their annual 550 mile trip.

Sounds like bad advice.

You are much better off with a tesla with autopilot, especially on such a long trip. Its by far the safest vehicle, and yes it will make you align your breakfast or lunch or dinner plans along the trip with charging at the same time, but that also means no waiting around, the iphone lets you know when your car is close to being fully charged.

I used to insist on flying anything over 300 miles until we replaced the Honda Odyssey with a Tesla Model X, and despite it being the good old AP1, it takes over so much of the micromanaging that I can just be focused on overall safety and can go twice as far with the same amount of effort.

I would never want to go that far without autopilot again.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Here is the snapshot from Q4 '16 to Q4 '18. Set Date is when the ER date was announced.

View attachment 398253

Q2 '18 predates my investment in TSLA -- what is the prevailing theory as to why the stock price reaction was so violently positive?

 

[SpudLime]

@SpudLime
wasn't it fun swiping your credit card twice when you hit the $75 limit during fillups a few years back

OH man that brings back frustrating memories. I went so far as to research why the pumps did that. The employees at the gas station never knew an answer. I called my CC company and they said there is no limit. I got ahold of the company that services a lot of pumps CC authorizations and its THAT company that had the limit.

I ended up filling up with a 1/4 tank left to avoid that BS.

 

[EVNow]

Q2 '18 predates my investment in TSLA -- what is the prevailing theory as to why the stock price reaction was so violently positive?

I wasn't following TSLA that closely … but EM apologized for calling Toni Sacconaghi's questions "boring, bonehead" in the Q1 ER when the SP went down by 5%

Tesla shares surge as upbeat Musk sees profitable second half

On a more serious note, Tesla said they had achieved 5k/wk production.

 

[Todd Burch]

Wow.

So, now we have:
1. Investor day 22nd: positive
2. Q1 ER 24th: negative
3. SEC 25th: positive

Question is - what will be SP on 26th?

Answer: it depends on 1, 2, and 3.

INVESTOR EVENT
1 is a big question. There hasn’t been much of a runup into it. If good stuff is shown, we’ll see positive pressure on the stock—not just a temporary pop. If it’s disappointing, maybe slight negative, but I don’t see the stock dropping significantly if the investor day doesn’t impress.

Here’s the TPI (Todd Probability Index) for the investor event:
Big drop: 5% - Elon, is this a joke?
Small drop: 20% - ok, summon is neat but I’ve seen that already
Small rise: 60% - stoplights and intersections, but lots of intervention
Large rise: 15% - FSD demo with relatively small number of interventions—or solid demo showing path to this in the short term.

Q1 ER
Frankly I think a lot of the negative of 2 is baked in. It’s why we’re down here in the $270s in the first place. Given virtually everyone is expecting bad numbers already, we might see a slight downward influence (rest is baked in)—but if the ER has some good info in it, we might actually see the price go back UP, because Q1 is in the past now.

TPI for Q1 ER:
Big drop: 5% (wow, it’s worse than even we thought and there’s no good news on the horizon)
Small drop: 40% (yep, it was bad but there’s hope for Q2)
Small rise: 40% (yeah that was bad but good news on the horizon)
Large rise: 15% (wow, better than we thought and good stuff coming!)

SEC
I don’t see much if any downside risk to this. They will likely complete their agreement and we’ll go back to business as usual, hopefully with Elon being more careful about his tweets. Judge already seemed to be siding with Musk if they can’t agree, but I think they’ll hash out their agreement.

TPI for SEC Closure
Large drop: 2%: unexpected Elon smackdown!
Small drop: 5%
Small rise: 53%
Large rise: 40%

All things considered, I’m expecting the stock to be higher at the conclusion of all of these events.

(Disclaimer: I just made up the TPI a few short minutes ago. I am also not 100% at predicting the future yet, but I’m working in it.)

 

[Ratanpara]

Question for LEAP option experts.... I bought a lot of LEAPS last December with Jan 2020 exp., 250SP. They are currently down 57%. If the stock quickly recovers to 350, I'll be ok. But if it doesn't, when is the best time to roll them to 2021 before time decay starts to really get me? Also do "wash sales" rules apply to rolling options?

If I were you, If stock recover somewhat then sell a call against your holding at higher strike then your holdings up course this will limit your profit if stock goes way up.