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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
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Next update is supposed to happen before midnight tonight.
picked up more at 251.25. I suspect that's not the bottom...
⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️
Village Idiot
Wouldn't you if you were him?I think this proves he reads this forum.
Anybody knows what is the Drag Coefficient of "reasonable pants" ?
So, that we could calculate how long can the SEC drag this out without upsetting the judge...
It was mixed. Many were joint NASA/USAF (even shared logos). The key ones that influenced Space Shuttle Orbiter design were:the X-plane program was USAF, not NASA. I still have some books about this from the 1950s
X-15 NASA/USAF
X-20 USAF
X-23 USAF
X-24 A,B, NASA/USAF
Edit: Actually, even the X-1 was joint USAF/NACA. NACA was the precursor to NASA.
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Quarter was as bad as expected. Cash balance is actually a touch better in a nasty quarter with a lot of vehicles in transit and the quarter ending on a Sunday again. Today is likely the point of max bearishness, but I'm pretty optimistic on the go forward.
The supply bottlenecks have been resolved, the full product portfolio is refreshed and rolled out globally. I would argue that no consumer product company in the world has the product vitality / freshness of Tesla. I see Q2 being a far better quarter than Q1 and then the true earnings power beginning to show through in Q3 this year.
Importantly too, deliveries should grow QoQ for quite literally the next two years between Shanghai coming online, Model Y launching (likely ahead of schedule), the semi ramping, and probably a European factory next year.
Cash flow should be positive from here on so they don't need capital (though I wish they'd raise but they won't do it here).
Q1 was terrible, but that should have been known post delivery results. I think you should quite literally throw it out. In no way is it indicative of the future earnings power of the business. Between supply bottlenecks, logistics challenges, and the Model S / X transition there's just not much of meaning to take away.
People are wayyyy too bearish. Next datapoint is going to be InsideEVs estimate for April deliveries, which I think will surprise people to the upside and confirm that demand has rebounded.
Beyond the quarter, I was at the analyst day and had a long conversation with Elon after the presentation. If Tesla achieves its autonomuos vision, the Company will be quite literally the most valuable business in the world. People are ascribing a 0% probability that Tesla can achieve their autonomous vision. I would argue that a 0% probability on anything Elon Musk is a very bad assumption. Maybe he'll be late but he almost always gets the job done. Cornell paper which came out supporting vision is very interesting validation from a third party.
The supply bottlenecks have been resolved, the full product portfolio is refreshed and rolled out globally. I would argue that no consumer product company in the world has the product vitality / freshness of Tesla. I see Q2 being a far better quarter than Q1 and then the true earnings power beginning to show through in Q3 this year.
Importantly too, deliveries should grow QoQ for quite literally the next two years between Shanghai coming online, Model Y launching (likely ahead of schedule), the semi ramping, and probably a European factory next year.
Cash flow should be positive from here on so they don't need capital (though I wish they'd raise but they won't do it here).
Q1 was terrible, but that should have been known post delivery results. I think you should quite literally throw it out. In no way is it indicative of the future earnings power of the business. Between supply bottlenecks, logistics challenges, and the Model S / X transition there's just not much of meaning to take away.
People are wayyyy too bearish. Next datapoint is going to be InsideEVs estimate for April deliveries, which I think will surprise people to the upside and confirm that demand has rebounded.
Beyond the quarter, I was at the analyst day and had a long conversation with Elon after the presentation. If Tesla achieves its autonomuos vision, the Company will be quite literally the most valuable business in the world. People are ascribing a 0% probability that Tesla can achieve their autonomous vision. I would argue that a 0% probability on anything Elon Musk is a very bad assumption. Maybe he'll be late but he almost always gets the job done. Cornell paper which came out supporting vision is very interesting validation from a third party.
You keep using this phrase, despite:
- You not being the sole arbiter of what's needed
- Ignoring issues pointed out to you previously, such as:
- Cold weather reducing range by 1/3rd or more
- People living in areas more geographically spread out than you may
- Fast charging is not yet ubiquitous nor spaced such that cars with 28kWh pack can drive in a significant number of areas
- Etc...
You continue to ignore these issues.
(Didn't I earlier say I was justified in ignoring these responses? Character flaw of mine...)
I get your point, but it's more complex than that. If the investors get fed up with the volatility (read: unwarranted SP drops) of the company, they start selling, dropping the price lower. Workers compensation is partly in stock equity, and for them seeing the stock price drop when they're busting their asses is demoralising, and that's again bad for the company. Severe SP drops can ultimately lead to the company becoming insolvent, artificially so but still. And so the way operations are run is just as important as the cutting-edge technology employed by the company, the level of talent and the drive of the man in charge. It's a package deal, and all parts are important.
What has not been revealed, and I'm curious, is whether they've reduced from an S body line and an X body line to one shared line (as planned long ago); this would have relased a very large amount of space.
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
Silk "reasonable pants" or corduroy ?
But LR cars do come with a higher margin. But selling more cars will look good of course. And they have the intent to put as many on lease as they can to have access to them again in 2-3 years assuming their Level 5 autonomy pans out for some jurisdictions. Those cars may able be cheaply upgraded when taken back to add value at good margin. Say, an extra front motor for mad off the line punch and safety. Should not cost a lot. A small electronics update may make the car satellite connected or whatever. Dead easy to create value on teslas, even used ones.
Imagine an add-on instrument cluster for Model 3. Costs $200 to make, installation $30 in labour. Many, so many would happily pay $1,000 extra to have a Model X style instrument cluster, I have no doubt. Not saying Tesla will do that, because I rarely see them care one iota about what drivers actually want their cars to be. But the potential to extract cash from the market is tremendous if you're Tesla. Level 5 and getting there at least 5 years before others would help as well, but I consider that highly unlikely. 3 years may already ruin it, it's just one brand and premium cars. Someone with a less premium universal offering will price FSD out of the market. There would be infinite resources available to a FSD "killer" especially after FSD happens.
So, any interesting observations in the chat last night? No way I can catch up with all this now, lol
After-hours trading was amazingly flat after such a terrible report. Apparently you can price the apocalypse in
So, I've come to the acceptance that while I'm pretty good at predicting what's going to happen at Tesla, I'm simultaneously pretty freakin' terrible at predicting how the market is going to react in the short term, and it's cost me a ton of money :Þ. So I'm going purely to longer-term investments at this point. Will be switching completely to buying Jan '20 $300-$360 call spreads and selling stock-and-cash-backed Jan '20 $150-200 PUT spreads. Will roll at any point that the stock hits $310-ish in the good case, or if theta starts becoming relevant in the bad case.
Only question is to how to time entering into the above.
My big advice which I learned from Jonathan Hewitt here: Sell options on high volatility, buy options on low volatility.
You may not be able to predict the near-term stock price, but you may be better at predicting volatility reversion.It's hard to envision the stock rising on the day after such an awful report, but given the after-hours trading, that might well happen. I'm thinking about starting the buys/sells immediately after market open, and staggering them over the course of the next couple hours. Thoughts?
(As a side note, I'm very excited about Q2. Starting right off the bat
Why is Cash from Operations adversely affected by repaying the principal of a convertible note?:
"Our cash position decreased from $3.7 billion to $2.2 billion mainly due to a $920 million repayment of convertible notes, of which $188 million negatively impacted operating cash flow."
HG Wells
Martian Embassy
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Whoa there... NeXT was one of the greatest developments in personal computer history. It essentially took over Apple in ‘96 and NeXTStep’s Mach-kernel Unix OS and Dock-based desktop GUI became the basis of MacOS X and then iOS. Its influence lives on. Just sayin’...
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