Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[keydiver]

Yes for all the people saying that the design is timeless, do you really think buyers are going to be ok with the current style unchanged going into 2025 and beyond?

I agree with Karen, for now just small changes, like taillights, trim, glass roof, fresh color selection, redesigned battery pack, interior refresh, etc. Why mess with a .23 CD? Now 2025, that's too far off for me to predict, but yes, by then I would think a major refresh is due. I just don't think now is the right time, with so many other things on their plate. Let's get the Model Y and pickup off the ground first!
I really wouldn't mind if they got rid of the auto-extending door handles, as that has been my only mechanical issue in 4 years. I was so glad when I saw the Model 3 design.

 

[Drax7]

Too many short term negatives to sustain an upward price trend , too many reversals
That disappoint, from no capital raises and profitably to the exact opposite.
That demand could even possibly diminish was unthinkable .
That battery production was not up to 7000/ week was also
Unthinkable.

The above disappointments are deadly in the short term for the stock price.

Need some empirical wins to reverse price action. FSD assertions
And wonderful expectations are not
Credible at this point, only improving sales and margins are credible.

Show us improving sales and margins and the stock price will improve.

 

[Unpilot]

Gawd Dang it....I buying more!

 

[Chunky Jr.]

The whole bear case ultimately rests on a single assumption: That there is no significant demand for electric cars.

exactly. If you think EVs are a passing fad, then sell TSLA. If you think EVs are the future, then load up on as much TSLA as you can since they are poised to dominate it.

 

[ClownMouth]

to be honest i understand where he's coming from. the Model S for example has had constant incremental improvements, but it's still basically the same car from 2012 in terms of interior and exterior styling (nosecone excepted).

the counterarguments are:
- The software has improved by leaps and bounds
- The battery and drivetrain (performance, reliability, life expectancy, and range) have improved by leaps and bounds
- The electronics hardware (computer capabilities and responsiveness) have improved dramatically
- The self-driving capabilities (both hardware and software) have improved tremendously as well, and cars built today with the 3.0 computer and camera suite are phenomenally, revolutionarily more capable than 2012 Model S vehicles.

although the cars LOOK virtually identical to the 2012 car (again, nosecone aside), every tangible feature -- performance, range, reliability, self-driving, UI, even handling and ride feel, have improved a ton.

it's not fair, but humans just aren't going to fully register all those accomplishments without a significant visible refresh of the interior and/or exterior of the vehicle. it's dumb, but unless Elon has a plan to make humans less dumb, it's something that has to be accounted for and catered to (assuming the plan is still to sell cars to humans).

I guess they need to estimate the percentage of future sales they expect would come from repeat buyers versus new. From the perspective of someone who doesn't yet own a Tesla, I think the Model S is the best looking car out there. I imagine there are many others who would agree, BUT it doesn't help the bottom line if people like me just look but don't buy. If the people who are going to buy already have the current Model S and are waiting for an exterior refresh perhaps that justifies the cost of the project. If that is the case, perhaps a used Model S with current exterior would be next car rather than a Model 3.

 

[Cloxxki]

If batteries are a bottleneck, you get more revenue selling SR+s than any LR pack with prices under ~$49,000.

$39,000/62 = $629
$49,000/78 = $628

Revenue is of course not the same as profit. Options in cars drive up margins.

 

[ZachF]

Revenue is of course not the same as profit. Options in cars drive up margins.

Which is probably why they made AP standard.

 

[Maitri982]

exactly. If you think EVs are a passing fad, then sell TSLA. If you think EVs are the future, then load up on as much TSLA as you can since they are poised to dominate it.

Yes...and stop watching quarter to quarter news and doing math on deliveries, and waves, blah blah blah. The trend to EV is here to stay and in any case I saw nothing that shows there is a demand issue right now and I do not believe there will be demand issue in the future. In fact I think they will have hard time making enough cars to meet the demand they have in the future.

 

[KarenRei]

What about dimpled door handles?

Dimples are a great solution for when air can come from an arbitrary angle. Not so great for when you know where the air is coming from. They spoil the airflow, creating vortices that can help reduce a low pressure wake immediately after them. But that's the opposite of what you want on a long, flat side.

 

[EVDRVN]

Dimples are a great solution for when air can come from an arbitrary angle. Not so great for when you know where the air is coming from.

I drive with my door handles extended, doesn't everyone? No need to push that silly corner. Amazon has dimpled wrap for the handles FYI.

 

[LytHka]

I agree with Karen, for now just small changes, like taillights, trim, glass roof, fresh color selection, redesigned battery pack, interior refresh, etc. Why mess with a .23 CD? Now 2025, that's too far off for me to predict, but yes, by then I would think a major refresh is due. I just don't think now is the right time, with so many other things on their plate. Let's get the Model Y and pickup off the ground first!
I really wouldn't mind if they got rid of the auto-extending door handles, as that has been my only mechanical issue in 4 years. I was so glad when I saw the Model 3 design.

I think they should bring back every option that was removed that is within reason cost-wise to further differentiate from the Model 3. Can't remember all of them but I know they've taken away things like the pano roof in favor of just an all glass roof, dual chargers, etc.

 

[TradingInvest]

I was surprised by the number of people I know who prefer to trade-in a car when buying a new one, rather than selling it privately, even though it often results in a worse deal for them.

Trade-in has less hassle, also can reduce sales tax.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I think they should bring back every option that was removed that is within reason cost-wise to further differentiate from the Model 3. Can't remember all of them but I know they've taken away things like the pano roof in favor of just an all glass roof, dual chargers, etc.

agreed. I have a sunroof in my model S, which i dont think is even an option now? and why so few color options? FFS the technology to offer more than 4 or 5 colors surely isnt as hard as landing a bloody rocket on a boat.

 

[Nocturnal]

One other gap in Tesla's offerings, the ultra premium trims.

An SR+ has the same interior and exterior as my P3D. A BMW 328 does not have same exterior and interior as an M3. Not to mention the super high end lines such as the Alpinas.

Yes for all the people saying that the design is timeless, do you really think buyers are going to be ok with the current style unchanged going into 2025 and beyond? It has to change at some point. Soon is a good time.

Many cars have "timeless" styling, they still update.
Does anyone want to argue that Aston Martins or Corvettes don't have timeless styling? They still got minor refreshes every few years and major refreshes every 10 years or so.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Well, very near a 52 week low. Man I wish I had some powder.

Dan

 

[ZsoZso]

I put a buy order at 250 just in case, but did not think it would fill today...
Oh well, now I added my contribution of this year RRSP into my TSLA stock core position.

 

[Quesder]

Dropping and rebouncing
Not a good thing to watch live

 

[schonelucht]

End of quarter cash was $2.2B, but Tesla delivered nearly half of the cars this quarter in the last 10 days, representing over $2B revenue only coming in quite late in the quarter. It might have been that the inter-quarter cash as I calculated it halfway through here was even an overestimation...

Interestingly, interest income rose slightly between Q4 and Q1, more or less in line with a slight increase in returns on safe short term investments. That implies that inter-quarter cash for Q4 and Q1 were very comparable. Yet end-of-quarter cash reported is dramatically different ($3.7B versus $2.2B). Any thoughts on how to square these two facts?

 

[ZachF]

No.
Q3 2018 + Q4 + Q1 + Q2 positive requires too high a profit in Q2 to be likely.
Q4 + Q1 + Q2 + Q3 is a possibility, but requires great Q2 and Q3.
Q1 + Q2 + Q3 + Q4 is a possibility, but I doubt it.
Q2 + Q3 + Q4 + Q1 2020 seems extremely likely, so S&P inclusion in 2020 probably.

Probably a higher chance than I honestly want to admit though that a few 2020 quarters may be in the red during the MY ramp.... It's possible S&P inclusion may not even happen until 2021.

 

[jeewee3000]

To those that imply the Model S needs a visual update in order to sustain demand: I can't disagree more.

Look at Porsche 911 models throughout the years. Most of them look similar, some even look identical. The exterior has only changed very gradually whilst the performance was improved time and time again, making the 911 fans drool.

The Model S is a similar story: slight visual changes (nosecone for example) but many performance upgrades, making certain current Model S owners want the newest version.