Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lklundin]

"acre feet" - how quaint and archaic!

Yes.

More disappointingly, it is not stated how this volume translates into an actual supply of water. Surely, acquiring the water right does not mean you get to receive that volume of water once.

So per what unit of time does does this volume of water come? per day? per year?

PS. Is the rainwater that falls on GF1 collected and used, e.g. for flushing toilets?

 

[lklundin]

I would be interested in this companies name.

emover24 – Versicherungen für Elektrofahrzeuge

 

[TradingInvest]

So if we are talking about 10+ years long term outlook: income will only be as high if Tesla's solution is going to become a de-facto monopoly, and they can price their taxi services to around the pricing of human driven taxi services.

Otherwise if there's competition then robotaxis will set the price of taxi services to below that of human taxi services, human taxi services will gradually die out and robotaxi services will conduct a usual race to the bottom, prices somewhere around the price of expected capital returns.

I.e. the very long run lower price target for a $50k capital investment will be ~5% of the capital, $2.5k/year, or $25k over 10 years.

But in the initial phase they will track taxi services pricing, and will generate 10x higher returns - especially if Tesla becomes the dominant leader in the segment, which they have every chance to achieve.

If safe and convenient robo-taxi is achieved, I guess the adoption rate will be a reverse function of per mile fee. If the fee is $1 per mile, the demand probably can reach 2 trillion miles per year. If the fee is $0.4 per mile, demand could reach 6 trillion miles per year.

Tesla said their own cost will be less than $0.18 per mile (tire, electricity, depreciation, etc.) My calculation arrived at the same number. If only Tesla has large scale robo-taxi services, they can charge $1.2~1.5 for a long time.

If 4~5 companies all achieved FSD, in theory nobody will make much money on robo-taxi, in reality their own per mile cost will make a big difference.

A $100k robo-car that can last 300k miles will have an all-in per mile cost $0.46, the company has to charge above that number to break even. Meanwhile the company with $0.18 cost can happily charge 0.4 and take the whole market - $2.4T revenue and $1.32T gross profit.

The third scenario: other companies started FSD ride sharing, but Tesla Network somehow get delayed for a long time.

The true winner need to get both right: a large scale FSD network; per mile cost is very low. It may be a good idea for Tesla to quickly start a pilot taxi program in one city, initially supply safety drivers in the cars. They probably can gain a lot of insight by doing this, also can help to sell cars in that city.

Ultimately, the most important thing is to achieve safe low cost FSD. Tesla is missing the last piece, which is the hardest piece.

 

[Krugerrand]

But never used or abused socks.

That is correct, for such would be cruel and unusual punishment. Disappointing socks, reasonable pants, maligned underwear; all perfectly acceptable. Used or abused garments are just, well...saved for the likes of Wallstreet, the media, the Whitewalker King, etc...

 

[Singuy]

So about Tesla insurance.

Allstate provides a discount plus sustained discount using their drive wise system that monitors when you drive, how fast, and how many harsh braking events.

Tesla can monitor you in a whole new level. I wonder if they will change your rates on the fly for doing risky things like max acceleration events and how often you run red lights. Essentially the car pretty much knows everything about you.. even know if you are cheating on your spouse or not. So I don't really know how hardcore they are willing to go with this. Once underwriting is assessing risks of an individual, the sky is kind of the limit.

 

[TradingInvest]

How did you come up with 10 year $8k per car? Any rough logic?

I see it as for $50k car insurance will be $150 a month ($1800/year), and the combined ratio will be 95% (best in industry). Say investment gains in 6%, they can profit 10%, which is only $180 a year for 10 years is $1800.

Also if the insurance take rate is only 20-40%, the per car equation is even lower. Am I missing something?

Tesla's accident rate is 4~5 times lower than national average, this will continue to improve with new FSD HW and SW. They could charge way below other insurance companies and still have a combined ratio below 50%. I know this sounds strange, seems to me we are going to that direction. Also Tesla can easily tell who are the crazy drivers, if these few don't improve, they will see high premium or have to move to other companies.

 

[HG Wells]

Headline: Shortsville Times

Nature attacks electric car in attempt to get more CO2.
Massive Tree Crushes Hyundai Kona Electric, Occupants Not Hurt: Video

 

[Hock1]

I have a pinned tweet since Apr 7

S Padival on Twitter

Couple of people close to Musk follow me.. so hopefully, it has been brought to his attention.

I'm sorry I missed your April 7 tweet. I also, on a couple of occasions, have proposed a rights offering as a way of raising cash. IMO, it would have to be a non-renounceable offering in order cause a problem for the shorts. In such an offering, the rights would be distributed to the holders of 173M+/- shares on a predetermined date. With, say 35M shares short at the moment, 208M shares (in aggregate) are now held long. With a non-renounceable offering, I believe the shorted shares would have to be returned to the rightful owner, who is expecting to see those rights show up in his account on the distribution date. WRT forcing shorts to buy in, I have also proposed a spinoff of some part of Tesla (say, charging network, Tesla Network, or other) as a way to make this happen. Of course, this wouldn't raise any cash for Tesla, but I believe would cause serious problems for shorts. AIMO

 

[Aieukl378]

Huge short squeeze and min 10% rally if Elon announced he's quitting twitter...then on to 300s.

I'm 100 percent serious. Sorry but acting like a 15 yr. old on Twitter is only entertaining when your company is hugely successful and stock price isn't getting destroyed on a daily basis. Come to think of it it still isn't entertaining...unless you're also 15.

 

[Sancho]

Shiny new M3 goes into a parking lot I’m in yesterday. Owner gets out, people start asking questions. The guy is raving about handling, autopilot, superchargers, etc.

Last time I saw this kind of enthusiasm for a new car was when Lexus first came out. The first Lexus owner in the locker room raves about the car and gets everyone's attention. When the second owner starts raving, it’s harder to discount the first guy as a fanboy. By the time the third guy in the locker room has bought and is raving, the Lexus is a “hot car”.

If there was advertising stoking initial Lexus demand, I don’t remember it. I don’t recall knowing what the car looked like until I started seeing it in the parking lot.

Word of mouth from owners is everything in selling $40k products in large quantities. There’s no way to calculate “steady state demand” until almost every potential buyer knows at least three M3 owners. That will happen pretty fast, since it’s exponential, but that process is just getting started.

 

[Singuy]

I'm 100 percent serious. Sorry but acting like a 15 yr. old on Twitter is only entertaining when your company is hugely successful and stock price isn't getting destroyed on a daily basis. Come to think of it it still isn't entertaining...unless you're also 15.

There's some truth to this simplely because of all the restrictions he has over Twitter now. Him not violating the rules set forth does nothing for the stock. Him violating the rules only drops the stock. So there's really no upside for him being on Twitter since shorts will be applies every letter he now says on Twitter to the rules set forth. So now it's a game of just baiting him to violate in which the shorts are doing after EVERY tweet of his.

I am only talking about the stock price here. I still see value for him using Twitter as free advertisment for all his projects.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So we have talked alot over the past week about how NN-based computer vision will enable autonous driving.

Would any of our computer science experts share their opinion how Tesla can use their newly developed computer vision technology to aid manufacturing at GF3/Shanghai and for Model Y in a space/labor constrained environment?

Elon has hinted that manufacturing at GF3 would be 'more advanced', and 'best in the world'. Could this be robotic vision grafted onto automated assembly?

Does Tesla have the chops to integrate it's computer vision technology into existing manufacturing lines to replace labor while minimizing space? How big an 'ask' is this?

Elon dropped another hint during the Q1 conference call that the autonomous charging 'snake' is now possible with NN based computer vision. How big a jump is it from plugging in a charging cable to plugging in a wiring loom?

If possible, I think that would be a huge factor allowing the Model Y to be build at one of Tesla's existing facilities. Perhaps the new Tesla FSD computer will be in more demand than we initially thought?

Same hardware, different training. Train the NN with camera images, then it can drive a robotaxi. Train the NN with manufacturing process movies, then it can BUILD the robotaxis.

I bet computer vision based robots could relieve some production bottlenecks due to 'scare' labor on Panasonic battery cell lines at GF1 too. Jus' sayin'.

Cheers!

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

I'm 100 percent serious. Sorry but acting like a 15 yr. old on Twitter is only entertaining when your company is hugely successful and stock price isn't getting destroyed on a daily basis. Come to think of it it still isn't entertaining...unless you're also 15.

He might have to vow to quit saying FSD is right around the corner, and that they will be profitable every quarter from here on out, also.

 

[gavine]

If Tesla Insurance proves successful, they will have bought another group of Tesla-haters....insurance company workers. Tesla already has plenty of haters bound to lose from the disruption:

- Fossil fuel industry workers
- Gas station owners
- Car dealers
- Auto mechanics
- Auto parts manufacturers, distributors and retailers
- Car tuners and aftermarket parts suppliers
- Dash cam manufactures
- Taxi services (future)
- Truck Drivers (future)

And next, insurance providers.

The disruption is great, but it invites a lot of haters who are bound to lose their livelihoods.

 

[Pras]

Tesla's accident rate is 4~5 times lower than national average, this will continue to improve with new FSD HW and SW. They could charge way below other insurance companies and still have a combined ratio below 50%. I know this sounds strange, seems to me we are going to that direction. Also Tesla can easily tell who are the crazy drivers, if these few don't improve, they will see high premium or have to move to other companies.

The lower average stats will be available for other insurance companies also, maybe less so, but they can match (reduce gap) that part in pricing the premium.

 

[elasalle]

I have a pinned tweet since Apr 7

S Padival on Twitter

Couple of people close to Musk follow me.. so hopefully, it has been brought to his attention.

One thought I had on this though ... is what is the likely hood of success?

Retail investors will not move the needle much, so will the institutes who are the large holders go along with this .. would they want to increase their stakes?

I think interest in this approach will have to be first sorted out with the big holders before it is offered if it is?

If there is interest, I think SP jump will happen prior to the fact due to leaks etc.

(Just saying, because look where the previous 420 financial Engg got us) ... cheers!!

 

[elasalle]

So we have talked alot over the past week about how NN-based computer vision will enable autonous driving.

Do any of our computer science experts share their opinions how Tesla can use their newly developed computer vision technology to aid manufacturing at GF3/Shanghai and for Model Y in a space/labor constrained environment?

Elon has hinted that manufacturing at GF3 who be 'more advanced', and 'best in the world'. Could this be robotic vision grafted to automated assembly?

So does Tesla have the chops to integrate it's new computer vision technology with existing manufacturing lines to replace labor while minimizing space? How big an 'ask' is this?

Elon dropped another hint during the Q1 conference call that the autonomous charging 'snake' is now possible with NN based computer vision. How big a jump is it from plugging in a charging cable to plugging in a wiring loom?

If possible, I think that would be a huge factor allowing the Model Y to be build at one of Tesla's existing facilities. Perhaps the new Tesla FSD computer will be in more demand than we initially thought?

Same hardware, different training. Train the NN with camera images, then it can drive a robotaxi.

Train the NN with manufacturing process movies, then it can BUILD the robotaxis. Jus' sayin'.

Cheers!

Train flufferbot?

The Kuka robots are all highly software driven. In the future surely AI can be applied for multiple disciplines.
Personally, I think team should focus on just getting FSD working. cheers!!

+ML (Machine Learning) can be applied to Manufacturing process - doesn't have to be NN though. Collect data about processes in the manufacturing pipeline from various components, sensors etc. and conduct data analysis on that data set. It can help detect trends, anomalies etc based on data and provide iterative processes/actions for improvement of the manufacturing process.

 

[Aieukl378]

I'm 100 percent serious. Sorry but acting like a 15 yr. old on Twitter is only entertaining when your company is hugely successful and stock price isn't getting destroyed on a daily basis. Come to think of it it still isn't entertaining...unless you're also 15.

Shiny new M3 goes into a parking lot I’m in yesterday. Owner gets out, people start asking questions. The guy is raving about handling, autopilot, superchargers, etc.

Last time I saw this kind of enthusiasm for a new car was when Lexus first came out. The first Lexus owner in the locker room raves about the car and gets everyone's attention. When the second owner starts raving, it’s harder to discount the first guy as a fanboy. By the time the third guy in the locker room has bought and is raving, the Lexus is a “hot car”.

If there was advertising stoking initial Lexus demand, I don’t remember it. I don’t recall knowing what the car looked like until I started seeing it in the parking lot.

Word of mouth from owners is everything in selling $40k products in large quantities. There’s no way to calculate “steady state demand” until almost every potential buyer knows at least three M3 owners. That will happen pretty fast, since it’s exponential, but that process is just getting started.

I

There's some truth to this simplely because of all the restrictions he has over Twitter now. Him not violating the rules set forth does nothing for the stock. Him violating the rules only drops the stock. So there's really no upside for him being on Twitter since shorts will be applies every letter he now says on Twitter to the rules set forth. So now it's a game of just baiting him to violate in which the shorts are doing after EVERY tweet of his.

I am only talking about the stock price here. I still see value for him using Twitter as free advertisment for all his projects.

OMG yes exactly to your first paragraph. In regards to his using Twitter as "free advertising" if we took the stock price before the "420 tweet" ($354.98)and TSLA last share price($235.14) with a difference of $119.84 and calculated Elon's TSLA exposure and how much less he has now(and don't forget the 40 million in fines, etc. etc.)....that's some expensive "free advertising". Can anybody come up with the actual number?

 

[VValleyEV]

There's some truth to this simplely because of all the restrictions he has over Twitter now. Him not violating the rules set forth does nothing for the stock. Him violating the rules only drops the stock. So there's really no upside for him being on Twitter since shorts will be applies every letter he now says on Twitter to the rules set forth. So now it's a game of just baiting him to violate in which the shorts are doing after EVERY tweet of his.

I am only talking about the stock price here. I still see value for him using Twitter as free advertisment for all his projects.

Wait. The new settlement actually reduces twitter restrictions. A lot. (Assuming it is approved by the judge).

I agree with you that Twitter is a valuable tool for free advertisement, therefore a value to shareholders, and this new agreement will mean that Twitter may now be used for that purpose with way less concern for threats from the SEC.

If you are reading that bullet list in the new settlement and thinking “gosh here are a long list of new restrictions” you are missing the point. In the settlement agreement before this one, there was vague and ambiguous language that the SEC was trying to use to challenge virtually any statement from Elon as a violation, whether the statement had any new or material information or not. That language was removed in the new agreement, and that weapon wielded by the SEC no longer exists.

Now, again assuming this settlement is approved, there is agreement that only new and material information needs vetting by Tesla attorneys, and there is a list of what could reasonably be interpreted as material information. This is in fact what Elon had been doing since the previous agreement, limiting twitter to avoid release of new material information, and consulting an attorney when there was a grey area. The SEC attacked anyway, using that vague language provision, now they will no longer be able to do so.

Am I anywhere near close, @Fact Checking ?

 

[Intl Professor]

etc...

Speaking of the nittiest nits to pick, it always annoys to see ellipses without the period denoting an end to the sentence. Is that a coy ploy to suggest there is more to come? (Admittedly, I never had a college English class. After 4 years at MIT I wrote less well than as a senior in high school, so always insecure about writing. Audie, the master grammarian once caught me in a capitalization error. Fortunately, it was not a decapitalization error, as frequently happens in an unnamed Middle Eastern country.)