Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[FS_FRA]

I would be interested in this companies name.

I’ve just gotten insurance for my new MS from this guy in Germany: Peter Bieger

Very pleasant process and - for my situation - best deal out there.

He’s also active on the German Tesla forum.

 

[Unpilot]

Well since we are in the weekend and of topic....when it comes to the written word...I aint so good.
I believe I think well and speak well. But translating that into easy to read text is...um ...a challenge.

My spelling is as a third grader....I am pretty sure I flunked grammar. It does not help that the English language is a mess...I usually post from my phone...and am in a hurry.

All this to say I am sure some of my post's look like they were written buy Krugerrand's cat.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Didn't EM just say some tasks are better suited for humans?

He did, but that was 2 years ago. Time has moved on, and GF1 (indeed all of Northern Nevada) is severely labor constrained for the forseeable future.

I hope NN etc not applied to manufacturing at least for now. (Another distraction, waste of resources etc etc)

No resources to waste in Reno. Chronic labor shortage has reduced Panasonic's nameplate 35 GWh/yr capacity to just 24 due to them not being able to hire and retain staff.

2 days ago 'carsonight' wrote that Panasonic hired 75 people at a job fair in Reno, but only 40 of them showed up for work on the 1st day. At GF1, they can't even man the equipment they've already paid for and installed.

More simplicity in the Tent approach was what got TSLA over the hurdle last year.

I agree a new Sprung structure likely is coming to the west parking lot at Tesla Fremont. That way, they can use the spare capacity of the existing Schuler presses for body stamping, and extend the existing paint shop rather than having to start from scratch. Seats are also made just 2 miles away, as are many other components shared with Model 3. There's also easy access to the new Lathrop Distribution center.

But I think Elon's long term vision for manufacturing centers around robotic vision. FSD Computer hdw and the datacenter infrastructure to train NNs is a first step in a long march toward that goal. Its the scale and cost structure he needs to build a city on Mars, and he wants to be ready to start in about 10 years. Tesla is literally his Elon's makerspace.

Cheers!

 

[PhaseWhite]

So about Tesla insurance.

Allstate provides a discount plus sustained discount using their drive wise system that monitors when you drive, how fast, and how many harsh braking events.

Tesla can monitor you in a whole new level. I wonder if they will change your rates on the fly for doing risky things like max acceleration events and how often you run red lights. Essentially the car pretty much knows everything about you.. even know if you are cheating on your spouse or not. So I don't really know how hardcore they are willing to go with this. Once underwriting is assessing risks of an individual, the sky is kind of the limit.

Musk alluded to this, that they would be providing data to the insurance provider as part of the deal. I don't think I would be interested in such insurance for the same reason I don't install one of the monitoring devices that are out there now. One of the biggest joys of owning a Tesla is the launch which would instantly flag you based on the acceleration limit these devices use for a threshold of an unsafe event.

 

[GeoX750]

If there was advertising stoking initial Lexus demand, I don’t remember it. I don’t recall knowing what the car looked like until I started seeing it in the parking lot.

OMG, no wonder people here are against Tesla advertising. No knowledge of history and the iconic advertising battle as the Japanese automakers built their new luxury brands.

 

[SO16]

Last time I saw this kind of enthusiasm for a new car was when Lexus first came out. The first Lexus owner in the locker room raves about the car and gets everyone's attention. When the second owner starts raving, it’s harder to discount the first guy as a fanboy. By the time the third guy in the locker room has bought and is raving, the Lexus is a “hot car”.

If there was advertising stoking initial Lexus demand, I don’t remember it. I don’t recall knowing what the car looked like until I started seeing it in the parking lot.

Looks like Lexus was launched in 1989 and here is a commercial from then.

 

[SO16]

OMG, no wonder people here are against Tesla advertising. No knowledge of history and the iconic advertising battle as the Japanese automakers built their new luxury brands.

Bingo. I couldn’t tell you one ad I watched on TV last night and what it was about. However, I do remember the very first time seeing a Tesla, talking to an owner.....and ESPECIALLY driving one.

That being said, I do remember some funny commercials from over the years. Never made me want to buy what they were selling though.

 

[dc_h]

I agree that it's looking like they should hit 10,000 model 3/week between Fremont and Shanghai some time during Q1 or possibly Q2 of 2020. I think everyone should scale back expectations of hitting 10,000/week in 2019. That appears unlikely. If they have to rely on a heavy mix of SR+ out of Fremont then Shanghai becomes really important for GMs. Tesla needs to find a way to execute at least well enough to get through this year and then they should be a in a much better place financially. I can see why they are trying to get the Shanghai factory up and running in record time.

They must have some reasonable expectation of building about 7500 cars a week in Q1. They’re targeting 90-100k deliveries and even if that is highly optimistic they must expect to build that many. If they can make 90,000 a quarter and add an optimistic 3000 a week in Shanghai they are at 10,000 a week. Seems hard to believe coming from 5000 3 and 1000 SX a week, but SX should be back to 2000 a week, and 3 only has to increase 20% to hit 8000 a week total from Fremont.
I think the big margin and gap profit challenge for q2 is unwinding the wave, ramping SR+ and RHD for UK, HK, Japan and Auslandia. Until FSD, I’d prefer Tesla focus on GAAP neutral profit and positive cash flow. After that FSD becomes the AWS of Tesla. Keep the retail sector cash flow positive and profit neutral, investing in growth and let the software drive profits. If they get it done, they can dominate growth and profits and combine the strengths of Apples wholistic design approach, Googles search profit funding everything else and Amazons secure AWS growth, funded initially by their low margin retail business.
Tesla just needs to ride out the short storm of 2019. 2019 should be full of good news. AP3 software is not released yet. That pure AP3 software updates start in ~June and we should start to see Level 4 autonomy. Shanghai comes online in Q4 and the plant will look real in Q2, perceptions and coverage should start to shift to a good Lazarus story again. News about the Y, Semi and Roadster, unless they are building them, can all be discounted, but real L4 autonomy will be hard to cover up. Production in Shanghai will be harder to cover up. A pilot of Tesla network in San Fran next year will be impossible to cover up. So buckle up and put on your reasonable pants. Tesla could drop more and technical resistance if broken again could be down to 180. If that happens, some big hitters are likely to buy a 5% tranche. Larry Ellison would probably buy another billon or more and there are others. I’d prefer we hold and move up from here with big delivery numbers out this week. 15k USA plus the 2100 Model 3 Canada estimate out already, plus 10k in Europe and China from q1 transit would be very helpful follow up to the SEC win.

 

[elasalle]

He did, but that was 2 years ago. Time has moved on, and GF1 (indeed all of Northern Nevada) is severely labor constrained for the forseeable future.



No resources to waste in Reno. Chronic labor shortage has reduced Panasonic's nameplate 35 GWh/yr capacity to just 24 due to them not being able to hire and retain staff.

2 days ago 'carsonight' wrote that Panasonic hired 75 people at a job fair in Reno, but only 40 of them showed up for work on the 1st day. At GF1, they can't even man the equipment they've already paid for and installed.



I agree a new Sprung structure likely is coming to the west parking lot at Tesla Fremont. That way, they can use the spare capacity of the existing Schuler presses for body stamping, and extend the existing paint shop rather than having to start from scratch. Seats are also made just 2 miles away, as are many other components shared with Model 3, then there's easy access to the new Lathrop Distribution center.

But I think Elon's long term vision for manufacturing centers around robotic vision. FSD Computer hdw and infrastructure is a first step in a long march toward that goal. Its what he needs to build a city on Mars, and he wants to be ready to start that in about 10 years. Tesla's literally his makerspace.

Cheers!

If GF expansion rests on TSLA figuring out NN's for manufacturing, I think it is best they just stay away and start at Fremont.

Not sure why they couldn't use Lathrop though? maybe parts warehouse is better suited for GF1(Sparks) - large warehouse, robots for a lot of the activities like putting items in/out of bins, and fewer human resources.

Lathrop looks like template for China GF too.

 

[GeoX750]

Bingo. I couldn’t tell you one ad I watched on TV last night and what it was about. However, I do remember the very first time seeing a Tesla, talking to an owner.....and ESPECIALLY driving one.

That being said, I do remember some funny commercials from over the years. Never made me want to buy what they were selling though.

Do you remember the Lexus ad with the champagne glasses stacked on the hood of the LS to show how smooth the car was? Imagine if Tesla re-imagined that ad today with an electric motor ! Wow.

The Infiniti brand almost went under at the start as it ran these memorable but mysterious ads that showed something like nature scenes, but never showed the car. The Infiniti ads confused and drove people crazy and hurt the brand.

30 years later, I still remember these ads.

 

[PhaseWhite]

Oh, the downtrend wasn’t caused by T Rowe Price alone. We will soon see who else has been dumping in Q1. Short Interest went up a good amount too.

On Twitter, I’m starting to see a lot of longs capitulate and sell portions of their position. I think we will see bottom next week. $180 is my target for adding more though. I have enough shares

I think the capitulations are a sign we are approaching a near term bottom, as we are running out of sellers and will have new owners with a lower cost basis. I'm still holding cash equivalent to about 50% of my total TSLA holdings which I'd like to use buy TSLA and lower my cost basis.

If TSLA drops much more in the short term I'll likely pull the trigger on half of that as I think the April InsideEV's sales numbers could be a bullish catalyst. Though part of me is holding out hope Musk will think about a rights offering as I'd rather give TSLA new money then buy shares from someone else at this point.

 

[LordAstinus]

Without going into a detailed rebuttal...as you stated earlier there is only risk and no upside associated with Elon's desire to act like a teenager on Twitter. I mean, for example(one of so many) if you're say, T Rowe Price, are you going to hold billions worth of stock when the CEO has no problem retweeting a porn site? It just adds another layer of risk for T Rowe Price(I doubt their brand wants to be associated with porn sites). And the risk isn't just what he's tweeted so far...it's what crazy *sugar* he's going to tweet tomorrow...or the next day etc.

I disagree: There are both risks and upsides.

I think that the big question is for Institutional Investors: "Can you invest in the company knowing that the CEO is luring Millennials and Gen Z customers like a magnet with his communication style and an extremely fast paced decision making process? Negatives: Bad image with conservative investors/customers and more errors than your average enterprise. Positives: Future generations love spontaneity and being valued; quick error making drives companies to quick-error fixing if you they have right people and attitude." -> Their call.

 

[Aieukl378]

Without going into a detailed rebuttal...as you stated earlier there is only risk and no upside associated with Elon's desire to act like a teenager on Twitter. I mean, for example(one of so many) if you're say, T Rowe Price, are you going to hold billions worth of stock when the CEO has no problem retweeting a porn site? It just adds another layer of risk for T Rowe Price(I doubt their brand wants to be associated with porn sites). And the risk isn't just what he's tweeted so far...it's what crazy *sugar* he's going to tweet tomorrow...or the next day etc.

Yes, of course it's not "only" twitter and yes terrible forecasting/communication regarding financials BUT add those issues to Twitter usage.

You're an institutional investor and you're evaluating whether to add, stay or go(TSLA):

While stock plummets and company seems in peril CEO on Twitter is
1. spending time creating rap videos
2. poking SEC with Twitter jabs(leaf blower latest)
3. retweeting porn sites
4. acting like a 15 year old
5. and on and on and on

Removing himself for Twitter is technically simple(2 clicks?) and would at least remove all the uncertainty and risk of his Twitter usage.

Disagreers are either delusional or don't hold as much TSLA as I do

 

[Aieukl378]

I think the capitulations are a sign we are approaching a near term bottom, as we are running out of sellers and will have new owners with a lower cost basis. I'm still holding cash equivalent to about 50% of my total TSLA holdings which I'd like to use buy TSLA and lower my cost basis.

If TSLA drops much more in the short term I'll likely pull the trigger on half of that as I think the April InsideEV's sales numbers could be a bullish catalyst. Though part of me is holding out hope Musk will think about a rights offering as I'd rather give TSLA new money then buy shares from someone else at this point.

Before we get back into any kind of sustainable uptrend will positively need institutional support. Not going to happen unless Elon is replaced as CEO or he changes the way he communicates in a very big, probably not possible way.

 

[STARR X]

That is why I propose an app that sends all his tweets for approval by a lawyer. 99% of the tweets will just get approved in seconds - the few that don't can be edited by EM. It lets him use Twitter like he does normally and the few seconds it takes to approve would not even be noticeable.

I’m all for Elon having a free hand on Twitter but I agree with you that he needs to be monitored in some fashion. If something he says affects the stock, it gets doubly amplified by the media. And the media only reports the negative.

 

[TradingInvest]

If Tesla Insurance proves successful, they will have bought another group of Tesla-haters....insurance company workers. Tesla already has plenty of haters bound to lose from the disruption:

- Fossil fuel industry workers
- Gas station owners
- Car dealers
- Auto mechanics
- Auto parts manufacturers, distributors and retailers
- Car tuners and aftermarket parts suppliers
- Dash cam manufactures
- Taxi services (future)
- Truck Drivers (future)

And next, insurance providers.

The disruption is great, but it invites a lot of haters who are bound to lose their livelihoods.

The impact to existing insurance companies is less than to existing car companies. Insurance companies can continue to earn money from ICE cars for many years. The urgency is not there.

Car companies should be concerned that in 2 years their ICE cars may face demand issue.

 

[Aieukl378]

Without going into a detailed rebuttal...as you stated earlier there is only risk and no upside associated with Elon's desire to act like a teenager on Twitter. I mean, for example(one of so many) if you're say, T Rowe Price, are you going to hold billions worth of stock when the CEO has no problem retweeting a porn site? It just adds another layer of risk for T Rowe Price(I doubt their brand wants to be associated with porn sites). And the risk isn't just what he's tweeted so far...it's what crazy *sugar* he's going to tweet tomorrow...or the next day etc.

I disagree: There are both risks and upsides.

I think that the big question is for Institutional Investors: "Can you invest in the company knowing that the CEO is luring Millennials and Gen Z customers like a magnet with his communication style and an extremely fast paced decision making process? Negatives: Bad image with conservative investors/customers and more errors than your average enterprise. Positives: Future generations love spontaneity and being valued; quick error making drives companies to quick-error fixing if you they have right people and attitude." -> Their call.

Look...I'm an enormous Tesla/Elon fanboy...I own more TSLA than I should(averaged in at 200ish w/10 year timeline), have owned four Teslas and as soon as that Model S refresh hits, five, then the pick-up of course etc.

With that said I'm not delusional in regards to what has happened since the 420 tweet. As shareholders and Elon fanboys we need to be careful not to give hime a pass on bad behavior. I get it...it's funny for teens(which I think make up 25 million of his 26 million followers) who see their idol sort of acting like them, rebeling against authority(SEC), stupid memes etc. but damn, is that really important in the grand scheme of things? Isn't it more destructive than constructive? Isn't luring institutional investors back to TSLA more important?

 

[Krugerrand]

I

OMG yes exactly to your first paragraph. In regards to his using Twitter as "free advertising" if we took the stock price before the "420 tweet" ($354.98)and TSLA last share price($235.14) with a difference of $119.84 and calculated Elon's TSLA exposure and how much less he has now(and don't forget the 40 million in fines, etc. etc.)....that's some expensive "free advertising". Can anybody come up with the actual number?

The implication that the tweet cost that much in SP is disingenuous. A lot else happened between then and now. You’re also conveniently forgetting that the tweet itself caused the SP to actually climb a bit.

 

[Krugerrand]

But we ALL know Elon will not comply and will continue to push SECs buttons regarding his stupid Twitter usage. This is another reason institutional investors are bailing(they know there will be more SEC/Twitter drama ahead.) God it's just so f...ing ridiculous.

He will comply just as he has been since the original agreement. He will push buttons, but that’s not the same as non-compliance.

 

[TradingInvest]

Vision assisted assembly would be great, but if they haven't already implemented it on the existing robots at Fremont, I don't see them running it as an experiment in GF3.

For the 3, I expect Tesla to be risk adverse (plus Manual assembly is much lower capex than robots) and implement the following:
Direct copy of working/ in use robots and fixtures from Fremont.
Improved material flow system (line running along a lot of loading bays)
Hybrid GA line, working robots plus designed for human stations.
Same parts as current 3 (possibly cost down interior).

Given the changes needed to support robotic wiring, I think that will not happen till Y. They may hedge and go manual install to start on the first line with provisions for robots. Or Grohmann is already building/testing the install bots so there will not be issues. That would be a low risk development path.

I hope Tesla will mainly copy the existing Model 3 line to G3, and incrementally improve a few bottleneck areas. It doesn't make sense to make it fancy and face potential risk of delay.