Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kelly]

Disagreers are either delusional or don't hold as much TSLA as I do

Yep, no other conclusion possible.

 

[Aieukl378]

Apparently it is.



Probably also depends on what a person really wishes to construct. With Elon being Elon, that's probably also bit difficult to value.



To me it isn't, unless survivability of Tesla is at stake. There can be more reasons to invest then immediate monetary gain,

Tesla survivability isn't guaranteed and Tesla, right here and now, is in a very precarious situation. Would you hold your shares to zero? Would you like to help prevent them from going to zero? I should add TSLA has dropped from the 420 high until now about 40%. There are no stock market rules I'm aware of that it can't drop another 40% then another....

 

[Remus]

So we have talked alot over the past week about how NN-based computer vision will enable autonous driving.

Would any of our computer science experts share their opinion how Tesla can use their newly developed computer vision technology to aid manufacturing at GF3/Shanghai and for Model Y in a space/labor constrained environment?

Elon has hinted that manufacturing at GF3 would be 'more advanced', and 'best in the world'. Could this be robotic vision grafted onto automated assembly?

Does Tesla have the chops to integrate it's computer vision technology into existing manufacturing lines to replace labor while minimizing space? How big an 'ask' is this?

Elon dropped another hint during the Q1 conference call that the autonomous charging 'snake' is now possible with NN based computer vision. How big a jump is it from plugging in a charging cable to plugging in a wiring loom?

If possible, I think that would be a huge factor allowing the Model Y to be build at one of Tesla's existing facilities. Perhaps the new Tesla FSD computer will be in more demand than we initially thought?

Same hardware, different training. Train the NN with camera images, then it can drive a robotaxi. Train the NN with manufacturing process movies, then it can BUILD the robotaxis.

I bet computer vision based robots could relieve some production bottlenecks due to 'scare' labor on Panasonic battery cell lines at GF1 too. Jus' sayin'.

Cheers!

This, is a huge potential for Tesla. And we saw evidence that they are working on it. But it's not slam dunk.

The problem is slightly different, computer vision takes cars of "eye" part. But the arm and leg part of the robot are sometimes not straight forward. For example, seeing a cable vs grabbing it and attaching it to the right place are two different things. The precision of the environmental perception and the eye hand coordination are difficult problem.

I remember Tesla filed patent to make the cable semi regid to make the robot's job easier. I take this as an evidence that they are definitely working on this.

Andrew Ng. has a start-up landing.ai in this exact area. They work on the simple stuff like using image recognition for quality control, that doesn't require hand eye coordination. I guess Tesla is more advanced than that

 

[EVNow]

Otherwise if there's competition then robotaxis will set the price of taxi services to below that of human taxi services, human taxi services will gradually die out and robotaxi services will conduct a usual race to the bottom, prices somewhere around the price of expected capital returns.

Assuming no regulations.

Taxi services all over the world have been regulated to guarantee minimum wages/returns. At least in the beginning I expect regulators to set the minimum price so that human drivers can survive.

 

[Aieukl378]

I know but doesn't Telsa have intelligent/savy board members? Forget it just answered myself...see Theranos board of directors.

FYI Larry Ellison was on Theranos board.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

 

[Aieukl378]

Yep, no other conclusion possible.

Scratch the "owns as much TSLA as me"

 

[Aieukl378]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

Yes, all of that.

 

[EVNow]

When Tesla says the model 3 was ~20% gross margin, are they allocating GHG to the model 3 revenue before this calculation?

This is what they say "Automotive gross margin excluding SBC and ZEV credit – non-GAAP".

 

[guidooo]

Would you hold your shares to zero?

If we are on that trajectory and i didn't need the liquidity before that happening, probably yes. Think i'm more annoyed by the fact that i'm without dry powder at present moment then the actual share price.

I should add TSLA has dropped from the 420 high until now about 40%.

Think I noticed, although i don't remember the 420 price.

There are no stock market rules I'm aware of that it can't drop another 40% then another....

Haven't read a rule like that either.

Disagreers are either delusional or don't hold as much TSLA as I do

Cann't say i'm underinvested TSLA. So welcome in the illusion of life.

 

[Boomer19]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

sad, but a lot of truth to this. i experience it myself and it frustrates the hell out of me. most people just don’t/won’t take the time to drill deeper and research a bit. they take the 5 min news approach... headline or blurb at face value, generate decision on that alone, without knowing anything in detail.

 

[capster]

I watched a few GM cruise and Waymo self driving video. To be fair they are probably better or equal to TSLA's FSD right now in terms of city driving. TSLA probably have a better setup for high waydriving due to the better range of detection. But city driving wise, it is still the Lidar solution that is shown to be better. On top of that, who is to say that they are not using cameras and NN learning as well.

I still stand in the middle. I believe both TSLA and Waymo will arrive at their own solution. The neural net learning technique can be applied to both sensor suits. Waymo's valuation is warranted. TSLA's valuation is zero now due to the market not believing Elon anymore.

Hmmm. A few perspectives I’ve developed over the years.

Usually, one technological approach will prove better in the marketplace, be it fuel cells vs EV’s or lidar-centric vs camera-centric autonomy, etc. Picking the right one isn’t easy and is a skill learned in the real world. Didn’t John Doerr say something like "Teaching a new venture capitalist is like training a jet fighter pilot. Every crash costs twenty million dollars."?

Group think by teams of engineers in large organizations can lead to embracing the wrong solution for novel technologies more often than you’d think, especially if management is providing poor or mis- guidance.

I take away credibility points when one side spends a lot of time arguing why the other approach won’t work, especially when things devolve into ad hominem attacks. Just tell me what you can do.

I have much more faith in people who have actually delivered real innovation to market more than once, e.g. Elon Musk.

Full disclosure: Fuel cells vehicles and lidar-centric autonomy have both seemed obviously less likely to succeed from the outset to me. So, Elon’s choices increased my confidence in Tesla and didn’t require me to extend trust where others might need to.

Tl,dr: The middle path is nice, but there are certain contexts where it often doesn’t exist. Recognizing when it doesn’t exist is crucial. Then, choosing the right side takes judgement, especially when you want to be early and yet have reasonably high confidence while using the least information possible.

 

[EVNow]

He does not want those 1% to get caught...therein lies the problem.

That makes ZERO sense.

The fact is - EM wants to interact with has fans on Twitter. He wants to give information, write hot takes. Just like a lot of celebrities.

He has no interest in suddenly moving the market during trading hours or anything like that. That is not his intention.

 

[Aieukl378]

If we are on that trajectory and i didn't need the liquidity before that happening, probably yes. Think i'm more annoyed by the fact that i'm without dry powder at present moment then the actual share price.


Think I noticed, although i don't remember the 420 price.


Haven't read a rule like that either.



Cann't say i'm underinvested TSLA. So welcome in the illusion of life.

$379.49...and I bought a little here, y'know cause the CEO said it was going private at $420...easy $40 right?

Oh, did I mention his Twitter account sucks?

 

[elasalle]

Yep, no other conclusion possible.

I think there is one conclusion that is starting to become obvious ...

 

[Aieukl378]

That makes ZERO sense.

The fact is - EM wants to interact with has fans on Twitter. He wants to give information, write hot takes. Just like a lot of celebrities.

He has no interest in suddenly moving the market during trading hours or anything like that. That is not his intention.

And just like a lot of celebrities(who, I might add, don't control enormous public companies), he could take a major fall see: Endless Celebrity Scandals which ruined careers, contracts, brands etc. etc.

 

[Tim S]

The mods need to start deleting posts. This forum is impossible to keep up with and still have a life. I just scrolled through about 50 posts FROM THE SAME MEMBER that all said the same thing... "Elon shouldn't tweet".
I started coming here in December to find Tesla news. I have wasted way too much of my life the last few months reading useless posts (like this one). I'll go back to Electrek, Clean Technica and Teslarati for news. I'll check back in when we're back up to 300 and everyone is in a better mood. Good luck to all the longs.

 

[UrsS]

About water for GF1:
One solution would be to recycle all the water used in GF1 - 100% - sort of like in outer space. That would require some technical problem solving and probably some energy.
Just the kinds of problems Elon and Tesla are brilliant on solving.
Catching rain water is not a good solution in Nevada, since it might not rain for 8 months or more some times.

 

[Electroman]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

I see what you are saying.

Play the game. Bribe the media aka pay them thru the Advt channel, then they will stop saying negative things about you. If you don't pay them 'protection money' then media thugs - Hull, Grant, Boudette, Lopez, Kolodny - will spread rumors and kill you.

Its two edged sword. If Tesla starts paying them bribes in terms of full page ads and Super Bowl spots, then they will go deeper into red and go bankrupt quickly.

Wall streets also wants you to play a similar game. They want you to keep going back to them for capital raises, so that they make money off each such raise, and also on the volatility which they and the media orchestrate together.

Tesla wouldn't be where they are today, if they played along with the established rules. Just one example - going on their own for sales instead of Auto stealership - should prove that point.

 

[trentbridge]

This is what they say "Automotive gross margin excluding SBC and ZEV credit – non-GAAP".

There are two credits that Tesla gets - ZEV credits from the sale of such credits in the participating states and also GHG credits which are absorbed into automotive revenues..and they can be found on the 10Q. So the Gross Margin for the Model 3 at 10% probably includes the GHG credits but not the ZEV credits..

November 2018 10Q:

ZEV credits sales were $52.3 million and non-ZEV regulatory credits sales were $137.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2018, compared to $0.6 million ZEV credit sales and $19.5 million in non-ZEV regulatory credit sales in the three months ended September 30, 2017. The growth in non-ZEV regulatory credits in the three months ended September 30, 2018 was generally consistent with the volume growth in the quarter compared to the three months ended September 30, 2017.