Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

The mods need to start deleting posts. This forum is impossible to keep up with and still have a life. I just scrolled through about 50 posts FROM THE SAME MEMBER that all said the same thing... "Elon shouldn't tweet".
I started coming here in December to find Tesla news. I have wasted way too much of my life the last few months reading useless posts (like this one). I'll go back to Electrek, Clean Technica and Teslarati for news. I'll check back in when we're back up to 300 and everyone is in a better mood. Good luck to all the longs.

... Right click on Username, go to Profile and add to Ignore

 

[MP3Mike]

About water for GF1:
One solution would be to recycle all the water used in GF1 - 100% - sort of like in outer space.

That actually wouldn't solve the problem. They need to bring more people into the area. That means more homes and each home needs water. And more restaurant visits, ie. more water, etc...

 

[Aieukl378]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

You had me until the fart app which I do find glorious. For real tho, Elon's personal stock decline since the 420 tweet is in the 450 million(the rest of us like 100 billion or so) range. Maybe that could of been spent on advertising/PR instead of pissing off the SEC? But then again want to keep those teenagers happy!

 

[Doggydogworld]

This is what they say "Automotive gross margin excluding SBC and ZEV credit – non-GAAP".

I take that sentence literally, which means GHG still counts toward both GAAP and non-GAAP gross margin.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Regardless of his restrictions on Twitter, the PR battle is over and Tesla lost in a resounding beat down by all major sources of media. It really wasn’t much of a battle as Tesla never had a serious PR stance. They still don’t and from what I can tell don’t plan to have one. The “the cars will sell themselves” approach is pure amateur on every level. Tesla made a beautiful bright candle and then put it under a pot. If Tesla fails the companies that pick up the pieces will correct this first. And then make a killing with the same car....because they are that good...just no one knows it.

Family members know we drive only electtic vehicles and that we would like to get a Tesla someday. More and more are considering and planning their next vehicle to be an electric but not one of them would touch a Tesla with a ten foot pole. “No service, constant breakdowns, continuously catching on fire, death traps, 70,000 dollar cars with 50,000 dollar batteries that need replacing minimum every three years” and on and on and on. I see their point, it’s what they read in the media, every day, from every source. Most are gravitating to the Leaf (they know ours hasn’t had a problem in 4 years) or a bolt. Both available for test drives at any time. If Tesla ever releases a Chademo or CCS adapter and we in turn buy a model 3 (LR AWD white on white FSD sport rims) they will all think we are complete nut bars. Why would we buy a car from a company months away from going bankrupt. My one brother who is a little more on top of the technology said to me, “where are you going to charge it when they go belly up? With no Supercharger network you are stuck with a level 2 car”.

And without any PR from Tesla this will just get worse. Total amateur show. It might be a good thing that we have delayed our purchase till this Chademo adapter thing is sorted out for the model three. Wait, am I starting to believe the negative hype myself. Good thing I hang around this board as much as I do, because there is essentially NO POSITIVE PRESS on Tesla, anywhere, ever...and if there is, the only place it can be found is here, in a link on this board.

Our national news network regularly takes a hit at Tesla, and again on the Sunday news this morning on TV. Saw a neat add on the Audi ETron though. There are about 5 Audi’s on our block, wonder which one will have an Audi in their driveway first.

I’m sure lots will disagree with this post from a frustrated pair of wannabeteslaowners. But here, this is the reality, nobody would touch a Tesla. The battle is lost on this front.

One of our neighbours came over to see our charge setup as they are getting the work done now for a car purchase in Summer. We talked and analyzed their needs and I recommended a model 3 LRAWD as they travel the main corridors only and wont be affected by the lack of Tesla infrastructure off the main routes in the province. The said “Tesla, didn’t they just go out of business??? I tried to clarify but to know avail, I think they are leaning towards the Jag.

Keep the faith brethren. The only reason we still do is because we make ourselves take a Tesla for a drive every 6 months or so, then we get that ohhh, yahhhhh...that’s why...and we carry on the faith.

Just sayin. Quit wasting your money on fart apps and higher a PR team, PLEASE.

I wonder how much of this noise will be around when 80k M3s are sold this quarter?

Suddenly growth will be back and Elon will look like a genius by growing the company without wasting money on advertising.

 

[AcesDealt]

There are two credits that Tesla gets - ZEV credits from the sale of such credits in the participating states and also GHG credits which are absorbed into automotive revenues..and they can be found on the 10Q. So the Gross Margin for the Model 3 at 10% probably includes the GHG credits but not the ZEV credits..

November 2018 10Q:

ZEV credits sales were $52.3 million and non-ZEV regulatory credits sales were $137.2 million in the three months ended September 30, 2018, compared to $0.6 million ZEV credit sales and $19.5 million in non-ZEV regulatory credit sales in the three months ended September 30, 2017. The growth in non-ZEV regulatory credits in the three months ended September 30, 2018 was generally consistent with the volume growth in the quarter compared to the three months ended September 30, 2017.

I suspect they are adding GHG to get to 20%. It creates a more plausible ASP and seems to make the modelling more consistent. This is a relatively big negative in regard to margin picture on the car, particularly given the increasing shipments international which don't have GHG. I'm thinking we are almost certainly gonna have negative profits for the remainder of the year unless the very top end of sales expectations comes in.

 

[Aieukl378]

I wonder how much of this noise will be around when 80k M3s are sold this quarter?

Suddenly growth will be back and Elon will look like a genius by growing the company without wasting money on advertising.

That could happen BUT the primary issue is communication and institutional investors aren't going to commit huge sums of cash when earnings calls are fictitious and the CEO acts batshit crazy on social media. They're not bailing now because they don't like the product or don't see Tesla's long term potential ...they know. They're leaving because of Elon(specifically how he communicates).

 

[sparcs]

I wonder how much of this noise will be around when 80k M3s are sold this quarter?

Suddenly growth will be back and Elon will look like a genius by growing the company without wasting money on advertising.

That's exactly it. These cars are spreading out further globally in volumes. Every new customer interacts with more potential customers.

If Elon can hold his crap together and not create more controversy over stupid stuff, it's a matter of just weathering it out. The quality of the vehicles will eventually win out all arguments against. You don't hear about any big Model 3 issues like fit and finish outside of software.

 

[Electroman]

He just retweeted a porn site for chrissakes.

Maybe that could of been spent on advertising/PR instead of pissing off the SEC?

I don't know what the hell are you saying. Elon did not go out of they way to diss SEC. it is the SEC and DoJ instead of going after blatant manipulation and those who actively spread rumors against Tesla, came after him.

 

[RobStark]

I find it laughable that people would refer to waymo as in any way a competitor to tesla with a serious face. Sure, they have robotaxis now! and if you want to go from one point in downtown pheonix arizona to another point in downtown pheonix arizona, they can do that! oh yes!
But what (gasp) if you want to go somewhere else in pheonix? or (double gasp) somewhere outside pheonix! or (treble gasp!) somewhere in another state!

Actually, downtown Phoenix is too difficult for Waymo. Waymo operates in a 100 square mile area of Chandler, Tempe, Mesa, Gilbert and some adjacent suburban type areas in Phoenix. And it has to be preapproved points inside that 100 square mile area. You can't pick random points inside that geofenced area.

 

[RobStark]

I have seen that man work, I would never let him touch my Tesla.

But for a salvaged car I guess he could be OK.

It seems Rich has more work than disposable hours in the day.

So it doesn't matter if the vast majority of Tesla owners would never consider hiring him.

 

[Aieukl378]

I don't know what the hell are you saying. Elon did not go out of they way to diss SEC. it is the SEC and DoJ instead of going after blatant manipulation and those who actively spread rumors against Tesla, came after him.

We can all hate the SEC. We can all hate ICE. We can all hate the FBI. We can all hate the IRS. BUT if I'm audited by the IRS(who I hate because of the unjust way they target low income earners...true) I do a media blitz criticizing the IRS and how I don't respect them and continually taunt them, how would that audit work out for me? How miserable could this unjust, possibly corrupt agency make my life? Cause I'm an adult and understand how the world works I would ****ing comply and get them out of my face ASAP. That's what I'm trying to imply. And I do own a company and no way in hell am I going to risk my company over a pissing match with a regulatory agency.

 

[Words of HABIT]

The recent $375 drop to $235 of TSLA has been disheartening. So I run this simple TSLA risk analysis in my head:

1) Do I believe EVs will continue to escalate in production (at the expense of ICE) to become the most predominant form of auto transportation for both personal and commercial vehicles in their trillion $ worldwide market? In No, sell my TSLA. If Yes, go to 2.

2) Do I believe Tesla is the worldwide leader in premium EVs, and are they continuing to execute on their mission statement, learning from their mistakes, and growing YoY? If No, sell my TSLA. If Yes, go to 3.

3) Stay the course. Fight the FUD. The tide is changing. Be a part of the change to a brighter future.

 

[Electroman]

Hotlobstah is another care bear, coming out with 'Elon should be kicked out' angle. We have seen these types come and go here in TMC.

 

[CorneliusXX]

That could happen BUT the primary issue is communication and institutional investors aren't going to commit huge sums of cash when earnings calls are fictitious and the CEO acts batshit crazy on social media. They're not bailing now because they don't like the product or don't see Tesla's long term potential ...they know. They're leaving because of Elon(specifically how he communicates).

It's not fair to lump all institutional investors into one pot. There are thousands of institutions all with different mandates and strategies. At any given time some will be divesting and others investing.

We have no idea why T Rowe Price decided to divest at this point in time. They could have been scared of by Elon, or a couple of people on their investment committee that liked Tesla may have retired, or the specific funds that held the stock may have reached maturity, or they may have wanted to lock in profits. Etc.

Until we see multiple large investors selling the current "institutional thinking" stated here is idiosyncratic hearsay.

 

[SO16]

Look...I'm an enormous Tesla/Elon fanboy...I own more TSLA than I should(averaged in at 200ish w/10 year timeline), have owned four Teslas and as soon as that Model S refresh hits, five, then the pick-up of course etc.

With that said I'm not delusional in regards to what has happened since the 420 tweet. As shareholders and Elon fanboys we need to be careful not to give hime a pass on bad behavior. I get it...it's funny for teens(which I think make up 25 million of his 26 million followers) who see their idol sort of acting like them, rebeling against authority(SEC), stupid memes etc. but damn, is that really important in the grand scheme of things? Isn't it more destructive than constructive? Isn't luring institutional investors back to TSLA more important?

I am hoping he has learned his lesson. It also does no good to taunt the shorts. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Just continue to execute and hopefully by the end of 2019, the bear “no demand” case is dispelled once and for all. I did see two new Teslas (X and 3) on a 3 mile stretch of road that I travel all the time. Pretty good for Michigan (the anti Tesla state.)

 

[Webeevdrivers]

I wonder how much of this noise will be around when 80k M3s are sold this quarter?

Suddenly growth will be back and Elon will look like a genius by growing the company without wasting money on advertising.

Meh. I doubt it. Maybe for a few days. Then market forces from other manufacturers, other interests with advertising budgets will kick in and Tesla will get beat down again. Tesla will continue to arrive to a gun fight with a knife and regardless of how good their product is they will lose...until they buy a gun...or a PR firm. I don’t blame Elon for this, this is not his area of expertise, he has a board that should be guiding the company thru this kind of thing. I have no experience in the car building world but in my world, advertizing budgets are directly related to revenue. I get it. In the early years there was no reason to advertise, they sold everything they built with waiting lists. Those times are gone. Now, they better start acting like a grown up company or they will be run over with companies that have products that are half as good but are promoted 10 times as much...which is easy when your competitor doesn’t even try to promote. Anybody in the corporate world who doesn’t believe that PR and advertising doesn’t work is a moron ...and needs to be fired.

 

[Aieukl378]

Hotlobstah is another care bear, coming out with 'Elon should be kicked out' angle. We have seen these types come and go here in TMC.

No way..read my posts...I'm attacking his methods of communication.

 

[Aieukl378]

The recent $375 drop to $235 of TSLA has been disheartening. So I run this simple TSLA risk analysis in my head:

1) Do I believe EVs will continue to escalate in production (at the expense of ICE) to become the most predominant form of auto transportation for both personal and commercial vehicles in their trillion $ worldwide market? In No, sell my TSLA. If Yes, go to 2.

2) Do I believe Tesla is the worldwide leader in premium EVs, and are they continuing to execute on their mission statement, learning from their mistakes, and growing YoY? If No, sell my TSLA. If Yes, go to 3.

3) Stay the course. Fight the FUD. The tide is changing. Be a part of the change to a brighter future.

Hey I'm long big time and scaling at these levels(not recommending this) but if Elon/Tesla can't get a grip on the message soon, I don't know.

 

[Aieukl378]

It's not fair to lump all institutional investors into one pot. There are thousands of institutions all with different mandates and strategies. At any given time some will be divesting and others investing.

We have no idea why T Rowe Price decided to divest at this point in time. They could have been scared of by Elon, or a couple of people on their investment committee that liked Tesla may have retired, or the specific funds that held the stock may have reached maturity, or they may have wanted to lock in profits. Etc.

Until we see multiple large investors selling the current "institutional thinking" stated here is idiosyncratic hearsay.

Well...this chart is pretty telling