Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CorneliusXX]

Well...this chart is pretty tellingView attachment 401627View attachment 401627

No. It's not.

we know is that one significant institutional investor has divested. That will have an impact in the short term.

We also know that short interest has been increasing, which will also have an effect in the short term.

There is no reasonable way to link this chart to individual institutional investor appetite and call it a trend. There is even less reason to blame it on a communications issue.

I'm not saying Tesla is perfect, but I have not heard convincing arguments that institutional investors are abandoning Tesla en masse.

I also think blaming a communications problem for the reason institutional investors are willing to give up the amazing opportunity that is AEV is unlikely. Anyone with the resources of large investment groups will look through it.

 

[Cloxxki]

Let's assume for the sake of discussion that Waymo and Cruise are approved first for some form of self driving (probably in a few cities). Optimistically let's assume they have a few tens of thousands of robotaxis on the road.

Then let's assume that six months later, the "laggard" Tesla flips a switch and has 500,000-1,000,000 Model 3s on the road that can be used as robotaxis on the Tesla Network, and is producing another 500,000-1,000,000 FSD enabled cars per year (mostly 3/Y). Those robotaxis last 1 million miles, and cost $50,000+ less per car to manufacture than the Waymo/Cruise-mobiles with expensive computers and LIDAR.

Who wins then?

Stock price is about fundamentals and hope. How many taxis can Tesla add over 10 years?
Waymo and Cruise could invite electronics/car parts makers over to join their quest. And Oh, they will.
$1,000 + 10% for a licence, equipment just needs to pass software maker and legislator's scrunity.
Even at 10x or 20x the price, it would would on pretty much any modern car. Or such a car can be modified from the factory or with a conversion kit. Once the software exists, the billions to adjust the cars to accept it will be plentiful.
Working with ALL car makers and any electronics maker that doesn't want to close shop tomorrow, the competition can make pretty much as many competing robo taxis as they like. Tesla's head start would be termporary. And guess what, will the competition go for premium cars only or undercut Tesla? Investors know that the more affordable robo taxi stands to earn the most.

 

[jbcarioca]

OMG, no wonder people here are against Tesla advertising. No knowledge of history and the iconic advertising battle as the Japanese automakers built their new luxury brands.

I remember. I was advising one of them when they launched their first car (I cannot say when because then you'd know who). Driving an early production version around to visit ALG and major finance sources was great fun and ultimately a big success. I think Tesla would be well-served to be kind to some of those major influencers.

 

[Aieukl378]

No. It's not.

we know is that one significant institutional investor has divested. That will have an impact in the short term.

We also know that short interest has been increasing, which will also have an effect in the short term.

There is no reasonable way to link this chart to individual institutional investor appetite and call it a trend. There is even less reason to blame it on a communications issue.

I'm not saying Tesla is perfect, but I have not heard convincing arguments that institutional investors are abandoning Tesla en masse.

I also think blaming a communications problem for the reason institutional investors are willing to give up the amazing opportunity that is AEV is unlikely. Anyone with the resources of large investment groups will look through it.

Well the chart demonstrates big volume on those distribution days(bars on bottom are volume). Big volume on down days and small volume on up days typically indicates institutional selling.

 

[RobStark]

If there was advertising stoking initial Lexus demand, I don’t remember it. I don’t recall knowing what the car looked like until I started seeing it in the parking lot.

 

[anthonyj]

Which is why I think:
1. Close Elon's Twitter account(I swear to you the stock would rally crazy on this alone and the world would be better for it)
2. Hire top level executive PR person where all company communications are generated
3. Hire new CEO who handles day to day...let Elon be chief visionary or whatever

I can't agree with #1 but #2 and #3 can be net positives. Also, something to think about, as institutions exit, large entities such as Saudi's, Ellison, foreign investment funds, Tencent, come pick up shares on the cheap. These are people that don't really care, they have crazy amounts of money and are willing to part with it for a chance of something huge. These same people will help with a cap raise via equity. Easy peasy. That is one thing that is giving me confidence

 

[AZRI11]

CNBC is now just overtly anti-Tesla, it's hilarious. Apparently Elon was forced into settling with the SEC and "can't service" their vehicles.

These clowns sure know how to mine clicks.

Rich is a liar. I have an excellent source. This is my Twitter handle
Louis Botelho on Twitter

 

[lklundin]

It seems Rich has more work than disposable hours in the day.

So it doesn't matter if the vast majority of Tesla owners would never consider hiring him.

Right, he likes to point out that he has a day time job.

With that in mind, it's notable that CNBC chooses to give him their time...

 

[Etna]

Some good info on the Shanghai factory published today by Tesla races ahead with work on Shanghai plant - Global Times

- Feng said that Tesla won't start formal mass production this year, citing a reliable source at a Tesla supplier.
"The target might be realized at the start of next year, and two or three months after that, its Model 3 can be put into the market on a large scale," said Feng.
- Tesla is still seeking appropriate battery suppliers, and that's a lengthy process because the battery is a core part of an electric vehicle, Feng said.
- "Tesla is prepared for not realizing mass production within this year," he added. "Trial production in September is likely."
- [a] construction worker also told the Global Times that the buildings now going up are just one-third of what Tesla is going to build on the site in total.

 

[EVNow]

Hire new CEO who handles day to day...let Elon be chief visionary or whatever

This will push the SP below 100.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Which is why I think:
1. Close Elon's Twitter account(I swear to you the stock would rally crazy on this alone and the world would be better for it)
2. Hire top level executive PR person where all company communications are generated
3. Hire new CEO who handles day to day...let Elon be chief visionary or whatever

If:
Share price down in short term;
Then:
Fire CEO,
Hire PR to change story regardless of underlying performance,
Hire another visionary CEO who can create products noone even knew they wanted until they saw it.
Endif
End company

 

[JoostP]

I can't agree with #1 but #2 and #3 can be net positives. Also, something to think about, as institutions exit, large entities such as Saudi's, Ellison, foreign investment funds, Tencent, come pick up shares on the cheap. These are people that don't really care, they have crazy amounts of money and are willing to part with it for a chance of something huge. These same people will help with a cap raise via equity. Easy peasy. That is one thing that is giving me confidence

Why not use his Twitter account for personal and funny stuff. And let him retweet the Tesla account if anything important about tesla is to be announced.

 

[JRP3]

He is the face of TESLA. He just retweeted a porn site for chrissakes.

*quickly checks Elons twitter feed, finds no such thing

Hey I'm long big time and scaling at these levels(not recommending this) but if Elon/Tesla can't get a grip on the message soon, I don't know.

You invested in the wrong stock. You don't trust the CEO, you should not be invested. End of story.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Well the chart demonstrates big volume on those distribution days(bars on bottom are volume). Big volume on down days and small volume on up days typically indicates institutional selling.

But it doesn't indicate more than one large institution was selling.

 

[maxhelm]

We can all hate the SEC. We can all hate ICE. We can all hate the FBI. We can all hate the IRS. BUT if I'm audited by the IRS(who I hate because of the unjust way they target low income earners...true) I do a media blitz criticizing the IRS and how I don't respect them and continually taunt them, how would that audit work out for me? How miserable could this unjust, possibly corrupt agency make my life? Cause I'm an adult and understand how the world works I would ****ing comply and get them out of my face ASAP. That's what I'm trying to imply. And I do own a company and no way in hell am I going to risk my company over a pissing match with a regulatory agency.

There are those that comply to not risk what they have. Then there are those that are willing to risk everything to change the status quo for everyone which in turn will result with those risk averse to happily comply to the new status quo.

 

[Aieukl378]

WOW! The shorts are posting a lot this weekend.

I can't agree with #1 but #2 and #3 can be net positives. Also, something to think about, as institutions exit, large entities such as Saudi's, Ellison, foreign investment funds, Tencent, come pick up shares on the cheap. These are people that don't really care, they have crazy amounts of money and are willing to part with it for a chance of something huge. These same people will help with a cap raise via equity. Easy peasy. That is one thing that is giving me confidence

It's great to have confidence but what if Elon/Tesla doesn't change at all? Are we in for another 40 percent decline because of some errant tweet(I know folks are getting tired of hearing this but it happened and can happen again)? This is what institutions are wondering and especially now with yet another SEC plan, will Elon comply(doubtful) or will he be entrapped by some short sellers etc. etc. Im sounding like a broken record but more than anything they need to address their abysmal messaging(which I think we're pretty much in agreement with) and if Elon plays teenager games on twitter can't see that happening.

 

[cliffski]

elon isn't a 60+ dude in a suit like 95% of auto CEOs seem to be. So he is kinda stupid on twitter. So? Welcome to 2019. Most auto CEOs probably had their grandchildren set up their twitter account.
I dont think tesla should apologise for being the one car company on earth whose CEO somehow manages to be in touch with young people and what they talk about/care about.
If you want to invest in a steady, old-school traditional auto company, go buy some Ford stock. Dont expect it to keep you in retirement though...

 

[cliffski]

The mods need to start deleting posts. This forum is impossible to keep up with and still have a life. I just scrolled through about 50 posts FROM THE SAME MEMBER that all said the same thing... "Elon shouldn't tweet".
I started coming here in December to find Tesla news. I have wasted way too much of my life the last few months reading useless posts (like this one). I'll go back to Electrek, Clean Technica and Teslarati for news. I'll check back in when we're back up to 300 and everyone is in a better mood. Good luck to all the longs.

Would it be such a bad thing if the forum throttled posts so everyone could only post X times per day? Ideally that would be scaled somewhat based on how many of those posts were considered informative.

 

[Aieukl378]

There are those that comply to not risk what they have. Then there are those that are willing to risk everything to change the status quo for everyone which in turn will result with those risk averse to happily comply to the new status quo.

As long s the status quo isn't a US govt. agency and you're not risking 40k employees, billions of dollars invested by share holders etc.

 

[RobStark]

Bingo. I couldn’t tell you one ad I watched on TV last night and what it was about. However, I do remember the very first time seeing a Tesla, talking to an owner.....and ESPECIALLY driving one.

That being said, I do remember some funny commercials from over the years. Never made me want to buy what they were selling though.

Most people say that. Yet, advertising moves the sales needle.

Sameway most people say they are better than average drivers or are smarter than average.