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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

KarenRei

ᴉǝɹuǝɹɐʞ
Jul 18, 2017
9,619
103,829
Iceland
I'm okay with Elon being overly optimistic about FSD for the simple reason that I don't see them doing anything that they can't back out of. For example, their plan to keep all of the off-lease inventory for themselves as a robotaxi fleet: sure, they could do that, if FSD is ready for it. If not? They just let owners buy them / resell them used like any other car company. They're not locked into their current strategy.

So long as there's no lock-in, there's no harm.
 

SO16

Active Member
Feb 25, 2016
2,965
9,165
MI
Tesla made the local news again in West Michigan!

But not for anything good.

“Tesla is raising 2 billion dollars after posting a 700 MILLION dollar loss in the first quarter of this year to help their balance sheet”. And boy did they ever stress the 700 million dollar loss portion.

*sigh*

Tesla really needs to get these losses behind them.
 

InstiTes

Member
Apr 13, 2019
20
786
East Coast
Better late than never. Glad Tesla finally decided to do this. Obviously dumb to do it here instead of last year but the reality is the incremental dilution here is negligible raising here versus $300+ given the longer term upside potential.

Think the barrage of negative media should die down considerably now. The reality is that the (completely corrupt and in desperate need of regulatory reform) game of short sellers is largely to cause a run on the bank. Target companies that need to tap the capital markets and disseminate enough fraudulently negative news to create a circular upwards spiral in the company’s cost of equity. With this raise that nonsense ends. No more hit pieces on how Tesla is on the verge of bankruptcy trying to scare consumers from buying the product or drive the stock down or how they don’t have enough money to invest in their products and continue to accelerate the innovation flywheel.

Now it’s just a bet on the company’s ability to innovate and grow. If shorts want to bet against the products of Tesla, that’s totally cool but doubt it ends well for them.

Quite frankly they should probably upsize the offering. The institutional demand is there. Leave no doubt in people’s mind that this company is well capitalized and if you want to bet for or against it, you’re betting for or against the Model 3 being the greatest / most innovative consumer product of the last decade.

Now they just need to hit their guidance to start re-establishing credibility and stock will be just fine. Been a rough run but better days are ahead (could be wrong though!).

Also they should start advertising, particularly outside of their core states, but that’s a different topic. Let’s get through one irrational principle predicated on hubris (not raising capital) at a time.
 

ReflexFunds

Active Member
Dec 7, 2018
1,152
24,366
-
Seems that Elon indeed wanted both systems in for a smooth transition (unclear if he meant Tesla’s future one or nVidia’s).

Source: https://www.inverse.com/amp/article/28218-musk-call-tesla-mobileye-autopilot

This is regarding using both Mobileye and Nvidia's chips together in HW2 in late 2016. This would have made complete sense. Mobileye's hardware with Mobileye's vision output + Nvidia's hardware with Tesla's Vision output + Tesla's driving policy. This would have been a much smoother transition and Mobileye's system could have been used to train Tesla vision.
But it would make no sense for Tesla to have ever considered using Mobileye in HW3 with Tesla's own neural net chip.
 
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Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,491
11,915
NSW, Australia
I think this is spot on and I think it is becoming more and more clear as Tesla starts to make real money.

Elon has said the Model 3 was the last bet the company challenge. It now sounds like autonomous driving is the new bet the company challenge.

Definitely the anti Steve Jobs thinking of hoarding piles of cash. Elon views money as a means to and end and nothing else.

Disagree with para 2, sentence 2. Otherwise like.
 

Singuy

Active Member
Jun 28, 2018
3,899
26,959
US
Tesla made the local news again in West Michigan!

But not for anything good.

“Tesla is raising 2 billion dollars after posting a 700 MILLION dollar loss in the first quarter of this year to help their balance sheet”. And boy did they ever stress the 700 million dollar loss portion.

*sigh*

Tesla really needs to get these losses behind them.

Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.
 

JusRelax

Member
Apr 24, 2019
926
12,069
Los Angeles, CA
Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.

I think if you change 'revenue' to 'profit', it works better. But yes, I think this helps to put everything in perspective.
 

dqd88

Member
Sep 19, 2018
908
2,598
Sacramento, CA
Although news of a capital raise are out, I actually thought it made sense when Elon Musk on Autonomy Investor day said something along the lines of Tesla not really being able to grow even faster if it had more money.

If new machinery or similar could make the same employee more productive, then that CapEx would provide additional growth.

But if a new employee has to be trained, then it may not be possible to grow much faster than Tesla's already insane, annual 50% (IIRC).

Good point. They are limited by the "weakest link", for example, a mineral bottleneck for batteries.

What I'm suggesting is growing through replication using the Tesla template, similar to how restaurants grow. Easier said than done i know.
 
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dqd88

Member
Sep 19, 2018
908
2,598
Sacramento, CA
Products that generate meaningful revenue currently out

1. Model 3
2. S/X

Products that will overtake Model 3/S/X's revenue combined

1. Model Y
2. Solar Roof
3. Semi

Product that will generate more revenue than everything listed combined.
FSD/Robo-taxi

If you zoom out and look at Tesla in decades, Tesla's revenue is really at the beginning of an exponential curve. So yes, losses will be expected for a growth company.

Assuming you are right (which I tend to think)...
The question is, when is the ideal time to buy?
 
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BioSehnsucht

Model 3 LR
Apr 1, 2016
1,789
4,808
DFW, TX
I'm a bit disappointed that Tesla / Elon have given in to the Wall St banksters and are doing another cap raise ... would rather they found any other way to do it if it was needed than to give those lowlifes another dime.

Since the announcement of the cap raise boosted the stock up a bit, and if stays around or a bit above this level for a while, does that make it more likely that the MXWL holders who don't seem to understand that TSLA is their only hope at any price decide to go ahead and tender their shares?

Though it sounded like a done deal per the ER (waiting on SEC approvals), some in this thread have expressed concerns that it might fail due to MXWL holders holding out for a better deal (which will probably never come).
 

Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,491
11,915
NSW, Australia
For those telling me how deluded I am that FSD is the next bet the company, this is exactly what I had in mind when I said it.



Keep in mind the entire event was centered on the investment community. While bet the company may be a little bit of a reach, the point is this is the next big thing they are working on.

I’m sure it takes a little more work than two coders in the back corner office drinking Soylent to solve.

You are confusing milk and cream. There is plenty of value add in having the sensor suite and the best NN computer. Safest car. Most relaxing to drive car. etc. Worst case, the project keeps the cars at the top of the desirability list. Best case, we all win the lottery. There is NO bet-the-company here as the worst case is still net positive.
 

AlexS

Member
Oct 3, 2018
924
3,796
Estonia
Here is a good table of Tesla covertibles https://ir.tesla.com/static-files/6db4f56e-1532-4cd6-b8dc-3ffbffe35e26

upload_2019-5-3_1-34-56.png
 

InstiTes

Member
Apr 13, 2019
20
786
East Coast
Since I’ve heard this mentioned many times - maxwell holders are not holding out for a better deal. That’s in no way true and would be suicidal as maxwell was a 3 dollar stock before Tesla and just printed an almost comedically bad quarter. Holders don’t tender until the proxy becomes effective because if you do you are locked up and can’t sell the stock in case anything happens. If the SEC declares the maxwell proxy effective then every institutional holder in maxwell will tender immediately (actually technically they will wait till the last day of the tender deadline period then tender so as to minimize the period during which they are locked up).

The maxwell deal is only waiting on proxy effectiveness - but it is effectively done. No need to worry about Tesla not getting maxwell.
 

Tenable

Member
Feb 9, 2016
953
3,757
Dallas TX
i went through the process to inquire last year when i got my 3

uggh i’ve unsubscribed repeatedly to liberty mutuals spam to no avail.

i don’t care if they pay me to take their insurance, i’ll NEVER sign up with them on that principle alone

(i’m about 1774 yearly for 3p for comparison w/ nationwide, but i also have another vehicle under that, and dunno your model)

Hard to complain about your current rates! My current coverage is 500k across the board, 3 vehicles a S P100DL, a MR M3 and a BMW. $500 deductible, glass, $75 daily car rental, no roadside.
 
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