Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[anon]

The broken leak given above is to this CNBC homepage article about today's investor call: Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company

Bloomberg also has some coverage of it.

 

[Boomer19]

If you are driving at 48 mph and you slow to 41mph does that mean you'll never accelerate again? Ugh indeed.

yep. it’s about what type of positions they’re loading up on

 

[Alphacrux]

Try this:
Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company

 

[Remus]

I mean c'mon guys. No comments on this??? I know there are doubters, including me, as Musk has been full of it on FSD before. But he is so confident in FSD coming soon now that he is either:

1. completely lost all common sense and is highly delusional and off the rails, or
2. he has enough direct evidence of their current FSD capabilities the ensure these statements are true beyond a doubt within a reasonable time frame to what he is stating.

there is a possibility of 1.5 in here. Their engineering build on new hardware is significantly better than what we saw and they are making visible progress attacking those edge cases. at the same time the always optimistic Elon underestimated the unknown.

just like people were extremely excited about voice recognition (or machine translation in that matter) and declared the AI surpassed human in its capability. Unfortunately voice recognition really fails with background noise or multiple people try to talk at the same time. The techniq is still vastly useful, but frustrating at times.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Since I’ve heard this mentioned many times - maxwell holders are not holding out for a better deal. That’s in no way true and would be suicidal as maxwell was a 3 dollar stock before Tesla and just printed an almost comedically bad quarter. Holders don’t tender until the proxy becomes effective because if you do you are locked up and can’t sell the stock in case anything happens. If the SEC declares the maxwell proxy effective then every institutional holder in maxwell will tender immediately (actually technically they will wait till the last day of the tender deadline period then tender so as to minimize the period during which they are locked up).

The maxwell deal is only waiting on proxy effectiveness - but it is effectively done. No need to worry about Tesla not getting maxwell.

Wow, thanks for that background. We are graced with another Thracian horseman!

Apropos of nothing, when you look out your office vienna, do you see Hofburgs?

Cheers!

 

[printf42]

I think Elon’s tactic worked, now all shorts are focused on attacking FSD/RoboTaxi timeline and forgot to attack the cars.

 

[Maitri982]

We would have more faith if EAP were perfect on highways right now. EAP is still so far from perfect that it's hard to believe that FSD will come in a year. Elon has consistently been wrong about autopilot timelines in the past.

I can't argue with that. I have 2018 Model X 100D with FSD and Navigate on Autopilot will surely get you in accident or worse if you don't keep an eye on it. My hope is that they are holding out the "good stuff" that EM is talking about and we will get that sometime this year and it will be much better than the current iteration.

Sorry about the link...someone else posted the fixed on.

 

[larmor]

I mean c'mon guys. No comments on this??? I know there are doubters, including me, as Musk has been full of it on FSD before. But he is so confident in FSD coming soon now that he is either:

1. completely lost all common sense and is highly delusional and off the rails, or
2. he has enough direct evidence of their current FSD capabilities the ensure these statements are true beyond a doubt within a reasonable time frame to what he is stating.

Definitely need to flesh this out more, since this is a huge pivot shift for tesla, and right around the time of Lyft IPO and coming for Uber.

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

When is the SEC distributing the $40 million back to Tesla shareholders from the tweet settlement? Or is that money being used to fund an investigation into the TSLAQ FUD campaign?

 

[Boomer19]

Try this:
Elon Musk to investors: Self-driving will make Tesla a $500 billion company

there is a possibility of 1.5 in here. Their engineering build on new hardware is significantly better than what we saw and they are making visible progress attacking those edge cases. at the same time the always optimistic Elon underestimated the unknown.

just like people were extremely excited about voice recognition (or machine translation in that matter) and declared the AI surpassed human in its capability. Unfortunately voice recognition really fails with background noise or multiple people try to talk at the same time. The techniq is still vastly useful, but frustrating at times.

the knee jerk reaction, at this point, is to discount his statements/claims

on one hand, is he diverting attention from the production problems? panasonic, s/x changeover, 3 delivery overseas, jockeying for position with a board and proxy vote coming up, with stipulations that could jeopardize his control over the direction of the company (not immediately but over time)...

i don’t know.

is this one of those times when the sheep cried wolf so much that we ignore the elephant in the room? doubtful, but
what am i missing?

all the other bs from the last 16 months aside, because that’s really what it’s about...the delay of 3, the meltdown on journalists (warranted), the pedo guy (probably not warranted, but he was kinda pricky), ‘secured’, 420, etc etc the whole ron burgundy 50% of the time i’m right all the time spiel...

is he throwing a fat pitch down the pipe that we aren’t seeing because we’ve been blinded by his nonsense, compounded by the shitstorm of media bias surrounding him?

why would he be so adamant about this? why did he say they’re committing all of their resources to FSD towards the end of autonomy day? was that a misstatement? or did he really mean what he said, catching even the analyst asking the question off guard.

maybe we’re thinking about this wrong, as in the car must drive itself and deal with every single drivers scenario right off the bat in order for it to generate value

i dunno. i’m perplexed. this is really crazy that he’s doubling, tripling down on this, when to the regular joe, we know that car isn’t driving me from my garage to my work garage any time soon, especially enduring assholish behavior by other drivers the whole time... where i live, it’s epidemic

what the hell are we missing here? why is he this confident about it? why didn’t they show a demonstration video, aside from just the people there experiencing it? that was disappointing to me. is it some sort of surprise? did he not want to give away prop secrets until they had a better handle on it? then why squeeze it in before earnings?

maybe i’m overthinking.
it’s either evil genius the way he’s playing this hand, or desperation. and that scares the hell out of me, honestly. or maybe he’s just trying to pump it a bit due to the cap raise?? and all the other stream of consciousness thoughts i typed out are just nonsense haha.


just a thought. still long and strong.

 

[jerry33]

Unfortunately voice recognition really fails with background noise or multiple people try to talk at the same time.

So does my hearing.

 

[mekberg]

We would have more faith if EAP were perfect on highways right now. EAP is still so far from perfect that it's hard to believe that FSD will come in a year. Elon has consistently been wrong about autopilot timelines in the past.

AP3 is different hardware, larger neural net.

Apples to oranges.

 

[Singuy]

I agree about the Model Y and the Semi, but I was a little taken aback by Elon making the following statement in the Q1 earnings call:

Back in 2016 or so, I clearly remember Elon making the claim that the Solar Roof would last the lifetime of the house. That's a significantly better value proposition than 30 years! A regular, cheap composite roof should be able to last for 30+ years, and it can be walked on and modified over the years as needed.

Further, solar cell technology continues to improve. In 20 years, if we can substantially increase our solar generation by replacing existing panels with newer ones, it'd be a lot easier to do so with standard solar panels.

I think the Solar Roof is going to be a nice niche product for high end homes. Personally, I love the look of slate tile, and installing a slate-style Solar Roof could be the ticket for some. But I can't see us considering a Solar Roof or recommending it to most people unless and until the costs come way, way down.

On the other hand, I'm very happy to see Tesla's new, lower pricing and simpler options on residential solar arrays! Whether this generates significant profit or not, it's the direction that the solar industry needs to move in. I also think that maintaining visibility in the solar and storage business, in addition to EVs, helps Tesla to have a great marketing story (generate, store, and use sustainable energy) that's central to the company's mission. With Tesla's lower prices on panels, though, it's even harder to justify the expense of a Solar Roof.

I believe those who retrofit their houses with solar tile roofs are slim and low.
I am however hoping Tesla team up with a luxury home developer like Toll Brothers and offer solar tiles as an option or just from the get go. The Tesla brand is strong enough and most home builders are going super green anyways.

 

[ggies07]

I mean c'mon guys. No comments on this??? I know there are doubters, including me, as Musk has been full of it on FSD before. But he is so confident in FSD coming soon now that he is either.

1. he has enough direct evidence of their current FSD capabilities the ensure these statements are true beyond a doubt within a reasonable time frame to what he is stating.

Well, he says he's in the most complete version every day so he has direct contact with what the product can do....

 

[dmckinstry]

just like people were extremely excited about voice recognition (or machine translation in that matter) and declared the AI surpassed human in its capability. Unfortunately voice recognition really fails with background noise or multiple people try to talk at the same time. The technique is still vastly useful, but frustrating at times.

My own hearing is quite poor (in terms of interpreting consonants) with background noise or multiple people speaking at the same time. However, the voice recognition from my steering wheel (although it usually works flawlessly) repeatedly fails on some words, even with my care in enunciation on multiple attempts.

 

[AlexS]

Well, he says he's in the most complete version every day so he has direct contact with what the product can do....

he needs to show live video from his car for people to believe. only words don't help. show live video from city streets on FSD and investors are in with all their money.

 

[powertoold]

AP3 is different hardware, larger neural net.

Apples to oranges.

Not really. As of right now, the AP2 NN can't even handle highway traffic "perfectly." There's no traffic lights, no peds, no bikes, no pets, no signs, etc. to deal with.

 

[Sudre]

Back in 2016 or so, I clearly remember Elon making the claim that the Solar Roof would last the lifetime of the house.

The roof is for the life of the house.
The solar is guaranteed to generate for 30 years.

It was never the solar would generate for the life of the house... altho most likely it will.

Once the product actually comes out we will get the true warranty info.

If the roof portion does hold up for the life of the house then it is worth the cost for a lot of houses, with or without the solar part. No one is going to touch a roof with only a 30 year warranty.

 

[Alphacrux]

This may have been posted before, but it’s worth reposting for those wishing to catch up on convolutional neural networks:
A Beginner's Guide To Understanding Convolutional Neural Networks

 

[elasalle]

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