Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[lascavarian]

I know people in general aren't very good at changing their opinions based on new information, but if you start seeing Model 3s everywhere only the really dumb people will still insist that they aren't realistic vehicles.

There is a phenomena that I have observed called the bigger fool. It works something like when the neighbor says, "Gee, are you still buying gasoline?" If others aren't paying for something then they feel foolish for being stuck paying for something others avoid or get free. It is a pretty strong motivator at some point.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Or look at Aptera. That car was beautiful. I wanted to drive that alien space pod around town. A few messups and... no company.

Haha, completely random, but Aptera is a town near my current house. I can actually see it from my balcony.

 

[cliffski]

I firmly believe that a vast majority of TSLAQ people, at least the ones out there on social media being stupid, are the same group that runs around saying that climate change is a hoax and that Obama is a secret muslim.

Yup absolutely, and I think a LOT of those people have never left the USA, have NO IDEA how big china is, or its potential EV market, and no idea how big Europe is, and how pro-environment (relatively) it is to the USA. I'm sure a time will come when teslas USA sales are seen as a niche afterthought, but if you said that to a TSLAQ person their head would explode.
So I look forward to viewing said explosions as the china/Europe numbers start rising. Especially Model 3 in the UK, which I think will be way bigger than anybody expects.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Congrats to anyone who bought yesterday.

 

[schonelucht]

The latest US figures are good, and put an end to some of the more frothing lunatic bullshit from the TSLAQ maniacs, but the total figures, including Europe, will be even better.

EU numbers are actually not that brilliant so far. We are looking at only 4000 or so total deliveries S/X/3 in May. S and X remain extremely weak with both around 500 cars each with no Raven cars available. Hopefully China is doing better. As last quarter everything will be decided in the final two weeks of the quarter.

 

[neroden]

You should probably get your wife's permission before buying back in if you promised her to cut back at $180. Maybe set up a few different scenarios and get her take on it.

Something I hope he and his wife understand about investing in a company: The key is to cut back at a HIGH price and build up at a LOW price.
So I've promised myself I'll cut back at $360, and again at $380, and again at $400.

 

[winfield100]

Or look at Aptera. That car was beautiful. I wanted to drive that alien space pod around town. A few messups and... no company.

OT
@neroden
the Aptera looks like a longer Sylph (late 1980's early 90's)
Sylph Three Wheeler - Micro Hydro - Free Energy Planet

 

[neroden]

I know Elon's guidance was still a loss for Q2 back at the Q1 Earnings call (presumably being conservative), but I don't see how this is going to be another quarterly loss if record deliveries happen. Tesla made $312 mln profit with just 83k deliveries in Q3'18 and $50 mln ZEV credits. With presumably higher ZEV credits in Q2, $250 mln profit is not too far-fetched for the S&P500 inclusion. If deliveries are >95k, which I think is plausible given the spill over form last quarter and the massive inventory sales this quarter, the SP will pop ~$100 easily.

Despite higher deliveries, fewer S/X and more 3 could wipe out the GAAP profit. It should still be close to breakeven (certainly not -700 million like Q1).

 

[elasalle]

Something I hope he and his wife understand about investing in a company: The key is to cut back at a HIGH price and build up at a LOW price.
So I've promised myself I'll cut back at $360, and again at $380, and again at $400.

If I can sell my calls (esp the Jan 20s) back at same cost, I'll be good with the shares I converted from the PUTS ...

 

[neroden]

I started harping on the effect of the tax credit drop back in 2017 and was laughed at for thinking demand would be affected.

I still assert that it doesn't affect long-term (multi-year) demand; it has a very definite and obvious pullforward effect though (leading to "feast and famine").

 

[Pras]

Despite higher deliveries, fewer S/X and more 3 could wipe out the GAAP profit. It should still be close to breakeven (certainly not -700 million like Q1).

S and X was delayed due to some labeling / approval issues. Also the early models could be on the ships en route to China and EU.

 

[ZachF]

Strong buying going on rn

 

[neroden]

LOL you've heard of at least ONE upgrade and can't find it? That's 80% of a Speck of information.

I'm waiting for an MCU upgrade myself and have only seen two tweets from Elon to document that it exists. I spoke to an Austin-based FSD engineer who said MCU2 is designed to be a drop-in replacement for MCU1... same connectors and all that. I have a friend whose MCU1 broke and he claims they gave him an MCU2 as part of the warranty fix... but I haven't seen it for myself and don't believe it until I do. I spoke to my local Tesla service folks about the upgrade, and they say MCU2 has issues. Haven't heard anyone talk about MCU3 or 4 except you in that post! I don't think it will happen at all, and will probably have to buy another car with my MCU2 wrapped around it.

Thanks for the info. MCU2 was designed as a drop-in replacement and a FEW people got it. But this was all before the Autopilot / self-driving stuff.

I believe I've heard that there are later (post-MCU2) variations of the MCU for the cars which have the self-driving stuff and that cars are not designed to be upgraded to these versions; I haven't heard names for them.

 

[aagosh]

I'm always amazed at the mental games people play with their money and how they think about things.

At the end of your Model X lease:

1. You will either have access to enough money to buy out your lease or not.
2. Your investment in Tesla will be worth a certain amount, maybe more than you paid, maybe less.
3. You will either buy out the lease or not.

While all of these things may be somewhat related, money is money, it doesn't matter where it came from.

Agree it's a pure mindgame. Let me explain my thinking -

I ordered the MX the very night of watching Autonomy day presentation live. My perception of Tesla completely changed that day. I see it as a computer company which makes cars.

Regarding financial, I had an option to go for lease (2.5% Annual) or do complete down payment. I chose the lease option and put the guaranteed residual value after 3 years in the stock. At the end of 3 years we will see how it goes.

Agree it may not be a financially wise decision - though I really hope that the company succeeds with its mission. Its too important to fail at this stage.

 

[neroden]

Or on the moon.

Specifically, the far side of the moon.

 

[NicoV]

Or look at Aptera. That car was beautiful. I wanted to drive that alien space pod around town. A few messups and... no company.

Me too. When Aptera died, I wanted a LitMotors C4. Ultimately I had to settle for a Model S.

 

[Todd Burch]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

 

[neroden]

how come there are still Volt's? i thought they were Discontinued or some such
View attachment 415405

Dealerships. The manufacturer stopped making them but it takes a while for the ones already on dealers' lots to get sold.

 

[TradingInvest]

I think Model 3 is simply the best car ever made. If you don't own a Model 3, I suggest you ask a friend who owns a Model 3, or rent one for a week. Model 3 SR+ has a true cost of $30k compared to gasoline cars, but it's WAY better than gasoline cars. Those who say EV will remain a niche market are either lying or have no clue what they are talking about. In 4~5 years EV demand will reach 30 million per year, Tesla will remain the most wanted brand, that's my view.

Whoever the activist investor is, I agree with his view that the current situation is similar to NFLX in 2011. At that time, NFLX had big drop and supposedly competition was coming. Shorts were piling on. Shorts failed to see that Netflix subscribers were quite happy.

I will point out one difference: in 2011, if Amazon, Walmart, Disney, or Apple were serious about competing with NFLX, they could have defeated Netflix. I can't imagine how other companies can defeat Tesla.

Smart investors don't read the BS from Wall Street. Lou Simpson, Carl Icahn, etc. all do their own research. I imagine the first thing a smart investor would do is to talk to real Tesla owners and test drive Tesla vehicles.

Keep in mind NFLX had a second down leg in 2012.

 

[schonelucht]

To the maritime stalkers in the crowd:

Any ships head out lately? If we have a hope of this wave unwinding, we need some ships to depart in June.

Grand Quest is at Pier 80 loading. Unfortunately this may be the last one for the quarter. There are no other car carriers heading to SF. But sometimes there is a surprise arrival.