Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SoGA Fan Club]

faith in the new york times?
ehhh. just think, if they do that with tesla, then what else are they embellishing or outright lying about in their ‘journalism’. same goes for elsewhere.

sadly, we all have to assume caveat emptor at all times...
eyes up, head on swivel

It is always upsetting when we learn that a news source we always trusted, is just as manipulative and deceiving as all the rest. Plain and simple fact is that news outlets are run by humans, and humans can't help but letting either their agenda or their greed get in the way of truth.

I found this out the hard way right after I became a fan of Tesla.

 

[KarenRei]

What I hope he doesn't spend time rambling on is the potential of the model 3 being an appreciating asset due to FSD making people money. We need him to guide a little closer to home this round with the stock as is. Save the aspirational stuff when the tough times have passed.

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - and even if successful, would be "future income", while today's stock concerns are about the near-term.

 

[KarenRei]

What I am hoping to hear about:

...
- European Giga location and timeline

IMHO, this has been almost completely absent from public discussion, but I think it's a very important thing for Tesla to bring up (regardless of how far along they are). I want the impression to be given that "This is something that we're working on, this is something that's going to happen, and not as some distant future project". Because if Trump ramps up trade-war pressure with Europe, I want Tesla to be able to say, "GF4 is already in progress; we're simply going to accelerate the schedule in response to this news".

 

[LN1_Casey]

IMHO, this has been almost completely absent from public discussion, but I think it's a very important thing for Tesla to bring up (regardless of how far along they are). I want the impression to be given that "This is something that we're working on, this is something that's going to happen, and not as some distant future project". Because if Trump ramps up trade-war pressure with Europe, I want Tesla to be able to say, "GF4 is already in progress; we're simply going to accelerate the schedule in response to this news".

Was it ever determined which country it was going to be built in? I know France was tossing some incentives. But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

 

[Fact Checking]

Just an fyi: diseconomies of scale means that costs increase as production increases. In our discussion we are talking about a reduction in economies of scale, I.e. costs increasing as production decreases.

Thanks for the correction!

 

[urarthur]

Was it ever determined which country it was going to be built in? I know France was tossing some incentives. But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

No, but I recall Elon saying Germany being likely. Being close to Tilburg (Netherlands) would make sense.
I see little chance for southern/northern Europe.

The absence of European Giga news is by far the biggest disappointment for me. Not sure what's holding them back. Trade war, demand expectations, Negotiations not working out well.. In late 2016 they were expecting to unveil European location in mid-2017.

 

[Mike Smith]

If there was ever a time Musk would want to reassure investors, it's now. Being down so sharply since the share offering is something he'll want to rectify. Remember that in the shareholder meeting, unlike earnings calls, Musk has near total control over the messaging. If things are actually looking positive, we're going to here all about it. I think shorts are insane to not have covered ahead of the meeting.

 

[Webeevdrivers]

Nice to hear some cities are doing this - do you know which ones?
It would not surprise me if this gets moving very soon on a local level in the states.

Barcelona has areas, I think Paris has certain areas and someone on this board mentioned a city or town in Germany. I think holland also has restrictions planned.

 

[Mike Smith]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

 

[sparcs]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

mexico trade deal

 

[RoadsterPlease]

210 pre-market, great start to the week. I think there's a good chance we will see 220-230 by the end of the week.

All the FUD of the past weeks and downgrades by analysts turned out to be nothing but hot air, the depressed stock price below 200 was a great opportunity to go long.

 

[Singuy]

mexico trade deal

Roth Capital Upgrade to Buy from neutral, price target of $238

 

[LN1_Casey]

210.25 pre-market. This is becoming a daily ritual.

When I first checked this morning, it was down $1.50, then to $1, and now it's bouncing back. It also bounced green a few days of drops; I just learn to ignore premarket for this stock.

 

[mickificki]

IMHO, he's talked too much about FSD recently; I hope he keeps it to a minimum. Some people are in love with the FSD concept, but the more he talks about it, the more nervous FSD-doubters get about Tesla's stock, as it makes it look like Tesla is betting its future on a tech that a lot of people don't believe will be ready any time soon, if ever - and even if successful, would be "future income", while today's stock concerns are about the near-term.

Completely agree. I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

 

[urarthur]

I suspect the 210 resistance last week was from market makers pushing down to the max pain zone of 197-202 (quite successfully with limited volume). If we break 210, there is an 'air pocket' between 210-220, coupled with short covering going into the Tuesday's shaerholder meeting, I hope to see 220-225 by Wednesday.

I certainly do not expect any analyst to downgrade a day before material info will be available.

 

[Mike Smith]

Roth Capital Upgrades Tesla (TSLA) to Buy

from 'TheFly':

'Tesla rating change Tesla upgraded to Buy on China demand at Roth Capital. As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral, with a $238 price target, after meetings with major Chinese EV producers and relevant supply chain participants. While the analyst believes rising battery costs are likely to be a 2019 margin headwind, demand from China will likely be stronger than most anticipate, reducing the potential for lowered 2019 unit guidance. China Model 3 deliveries of 2,324 units in May, after the initial 259 deliveries in April, suggest a "credible" second half of 2019 ramp, Irwin contends.'

 

[SpaceCash]

Completely agree. I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

Oh ya know, just out transferring my money at the most ironic times possible.

 

[sparcs]

Roth Capital Upgrade to Buy from neutral, price target of $238

Interesting. There were two of them actually. Didn't see the one from last Friday either. There were so many downgrades that I didn't know of analysts left with positive sentiment. hah

Tesla analyst commentary at Piper Jaffray

Piper keeps $396 price target on Tesla after Model 3 analysis. Piper Jaffray analyst Alexander Potter maintains an Overweight rating on Tesla with a $396 price target following an analysis of Model 3 demand. The company has lost ~40% of its market value since early 2019, thanks partially to declining investor confidence in the demand outlook, Potter tells investors in a research note. However, he thinks that of all the reasons to doubt his Overweight thesis, "weak demand is among the least convincing." The analyst's analysis establishes a base case Model 3 demand scenario of 170,000 units per year in the U.S. alone. Potter believes this is more than enough to support his forecast of 289,000 global deliveries in 2019, as well as Tesla's plans to expand global capacity to 500,000 units. "Importantly, it's also relatively easy to articulate a believable scenario in which U.S. Model 3 sales are nearly 2x higher than our base case," says the analyst.

Tesla rating change Tesla upgraded to Buy on China demand at Roth Capital.
As previously reported, Roth Capital analyst Craig Irwin upgraded Tesla to Buy from Neutral, with a $238 price target, after meetings with major Chinese EV producers and relevant supply chain participants. While the analyst believes rising battery costs are likely to be a 2019 margin headwind, demand from China will likely be stronger than most anticipate, reducing the potential for lowered 2019 unit guidance. China Model 3 deliveries of 2,324 units in May, after the initial 259 deliveries in April, suggest a "credible" second half of 2019 ramp, Irwin contends.

 

[MP3Mike]

Tesla is optimizing for volume over profit. The question is why.

I think you need to go back and look at Tesla's mission statement again.

 

[RFernatt]

... Not sure what's holding them back. Trade war, demand expectations, Negotiations not working out well.. In late 2016 they were expecting to unveil European location in mid-2017.

In the back of my head, I still wonder if they're cooking up something with Fiat to use some pre-existing facility that can be quickly brought online. Not necessarily a JV, but would be interesting if they could make some kind of deal that might result in, I don't know, a production plant for M3/MY and an electrified delivery van since MB wasn't too keen on Musk's suggestion and Fiat is already importing them to the US as a Dodge product...