Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[LN1_Casey]

I think Poland is also likely after Elon's visit there. The Polish prime minister traveled to US directly afterwards and did an interview with Fox where he talked about what Poland can do for Tesla.

Everyone* wants that GF4!

*Excepting for Shorts.

 

[mrmage]

My guess is profit would be better, but cash contribution much worse. I believe there is lots more than $2K in every marginal car cost (real cash, no depreciation) of production

Even more than that, Tesla knows their exact constraints, costs, demand and elasticity which we can only speculate. Since Tesla has a competent management team, I assume they are pricing to grow sustainably, since that’s what EM has said all along.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

the only real Tesla killers work on Wall Street.

They are only disgusting $TSLA manipulators, no more than that.

 

[dqd88]

Seems to be a lot of interest from Poland as well. They don't have the auto credentials of Germany, and perhaps a somewhat less stable political situation, but they seem more eager to attract Tesla, and it'd likely be cheaper / faster to build, and cheaper to operate, in Poland.

I can't imagine Tesla ever choosing France. They love strikes too much for Tesla's tastes. They're just as protectionist to their current auto industry as Germany is, with the French government owning a large stake in Renault. Etc. I just see nothing that would make them choose France.

It looks to me like a contest between Poland and Germany.

Wish they would consider Croatia or Serbia. Much cheaper and just think of the pride they would have as Nikola Tesla was a Serb who was raised in Croatia.

 

[traxila]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

What was tangible about the fifty percent haircut?

You would think a 35 percent bounce just on the fact that Tesla is not actually going bankrupt next week would be due.

Truly good news would mean all time highs for me. This ain’t no 2013 Tesla.

 

[Tslynk67]

Finally broke through the $215 resistance

 

[mickificki]

I agree he shouldn't reiterate everything he went over during the investor's day presentation on Autonomy but if he has new information on their progress, I think he should most definitely talk about it.

I think some people here have misinterpreted the freefall of the stock as having something to do with the Autonomy Presentation. I think the two were only related tangentially, in that the bears were already disbelievers in FSD so any talk about it emboldened them to pile on their short positions. That could have been part of the intent.

I also think you misinterpreted Musk's comments that advanced Summon will "blow people's minds" to mean it will perform at a very high level, even upon its initial release. He was referring to the reaction people would have when they saw a driverless car backing out of a parking space and cruising past them in the parking lot with nobody inside. There is no doubt that will blow peoples minds as it really is like an alien thought to people conditioned for their entire lives that moving cars always have a driver. This will create a huge sensation on social media with people freaking out and posting video of it on their feeds. In other words, it will "blow their minds".

Watch this video. Does this seem high level to you? I wouldn't trust this version of enhanced summon. Elon tweeted a picture of a bomb plus your mind. To me that means it'll blow your mind. I certainly hope fsd isn't anywhere near this level, especially considering tesla seems to have gone in the direction of a full court press on fsd.

 

[powertoold]

Elon's already aware of the enhanced summon videos on YouTube, so he must know it wouldn't blow our minds if it's just the same thing... But it's Elon, he's prone to hyperbole at times

 

[mrmage]

The greenness of the electricitygrid may be a factor. Poland is has by far the dirtiest electricity in Europe, due to almost entirely coal based: Live CO2 emissions of electricity consumption

Looked at the US, where huge chunks are nearly as bad as Poland. Sure explains a lot, while being somewhat depressing.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Another analyst note:

So how do I get on the analyst email group when they decide to flip from dump to pump? We couldn't have bought a positive outlook a couple of weeks ago for any amount of money and now we have three analysts out on Monday out flogging their wares.

but rather than complain, it seems clear that the information should just be traded on and use the profits to accumulate more core shares.

 

[StealthP3D]

Me in the short echo chamber is silly.

No offense meant. My point is, we are all exposed to it, even right here on this forum and thread (although to a lesser degree). It comes down to how you let it shape your opinion. Saying "Elon has trust issues" on Wall Street is giving a lot of credence to the most vocal negative analysts who want Tesla to fail. Wall Street is full of them. Some of them are not even sincere. I'm suggesting the view that Musk's optimism is "blind" or cannot be trusted has been over-amplified by these people. That doesn't mean he is widely percieved as such, many see right through the propaganda.

I would have agreed with you if you had said he is "often accused of being blindly optimistic" but the way you stated it made it sound like this disinformation was widely believed. I'll grant that his timelines are often too optimistic but that is not what I call "blind optimism" in general.

 

[Singuy]

Watch this video. Does this seem high level to you? I wouldn't trust this version of enhanced summon. Elon tweeted a picture of a bomb plus your mind. To me that means it'll blow your mind. I certainly hope fsd isn't anywhere near this level, especially considering tesla seems to have gone in the direction of a full court press on fsd.

Hold on hold on. Where is the driver? Who is driving the car? Is this for real?

The only time in history you will ever see a car moving without a driver in real life is some dumbass put his car on neutral on a declining road.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Elon's already aware of the enhanced summon videos on YouTube, so he must know it wouldn't blow our minds if it's just the same thing... But it's Elon, he's prone to hyperbole at times

No it'll be like this, for reals:

"HELLO? Where's the driver? Oh, there's no driver in that car!"​

People seeing self-driving cars for the first time with their own eyes will do a hard double-take, even the hardcore bikers:

Its absolutely the best PR/Marketing in the world, plus its FREE & 100% carbon neutral...

Cheers!

 

[urarthur]

Finally broke through the $215 resistance

There isn't any resistance in the 210-220 range. There wasn't any either on the way down.

 

[NicoV]

Shame Tesla doesn't know of a solar panel manufacturer or a battery manufacturer whose products they could use to generate and store their own electricity...

Tesla doesn’t have any self-sufficient (generating electricity) factory. GF1 doesn’t use carbon-based fuel, but after all those years, they still have only covered a small part of the roof with solar panels. And in the latest GF3 video, they show a separate building where the natural gas enters the factory, so they certainly didn’t apply the same principle to GF3. We’re probably meany years away from the point that Tesla generates a meaningfull part of their electricity consumption.

 

[neroden]

Most costs aren’t fixed costs.

I Dunno. Maybe a guy that sold puts against one of the worst performing stocks in the market ought to show a little more humility?

Most costs are fixed costs, doofus. Try learning to read a P & L statement before posting again.

If you really have not noticed the size of the fixed costs, which include not just depreciation in COGS, and employee benefits in COGS (benefits do not drop when hours worked drops, and are typically half of employee costs), but also the cost of maintaining the Superchargers, keeping the lights on at the service centers, etc.... then you should not invest in stocks.

The only true variable costs are raw materials, supplier costs, part of outsourced transportation costs, and part of wages. Even most of those have economies of scale due to bulk discounts.

Within COGS less than half of the costs are fixed but not much less, given that employee benefits probably cost about as much as employee wages.


There is no alternative to producing cars as fast as possible,, and the failure to get Fremont to 10000 per week really hurt Tesla.

I would like Tesla to be able to sustain this level of demand or higher with a higher list price, but I think awareness is not high enough get. With Model S the price went up as awareness increased... May happen with Model 3 too.


P.S. I made a profit selling those puts. Being on the right side of time value decay is nice.

 

[Nocturnal]

Elon's already aware of the enhanced summon videos on YouTube, so he must know it wouldn't blow our minds if it's just the same thing... But it's Elon, he's prone to hyperbole at times

He nearly always delivers...eventually.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla doesn’t have any self-sufficient (generating electricity) factory. GF1 doesn’t use carbon-based fuel, but after all those years, they still have only covered a small part of the roof with solar panels. And in the latest GF3 video, they show a separate building where the natural gas enters the factory, so they certainly didn’t apply the same principle to GF3. We’re probably meany years away from the point that Tesla generates a meaningfull part of their electricity consumption.

NW Nevada is already over 50% renewable electricity. Telsa doesn't have to do everything on site or by themselves, especially if the grid is already clean and getting cleaner.

Poland is actually an opportunity to green their grid, but its a long term play. In the mean time, the transportation issues likely favor production located closer to the center of demand which currently is Norway/Germany/Netherlands.

Elon said last fall they are favoring a Benelux location. Remember, Tesla Grohmann is located just 100km from the center of that area.

Cheers!

 

[Chop110]

Checked my pants pockets and sofa cushions for some more gun powder. Bought 18 shares at 213.

It’s going to be a bumpy ride to 400.

 

[neroden]

While theoretically possible it does imply we’re still in wave mode. That may be nice for the balance sheet on the day of the end of quarter, it doesn’t help cash flow and balances on average and reduces total delivery and logistics capacity. That Amazon clip of Bezos talking about being a growth stock vs a steady dividend and earnings stock should be taken to heart by Elon and Zach. It seems q1 was the quarter to take all the write downs and absorb the hangover of the tax credit change, so it’s hard to take another hit the following quarter, but it’s hard to see sticking with the wave up to 1 million cars a year. Maybe they wait to unwind the wave until Shanghai is online, but I’d like to see it end now, even if it gives shorts a day in the sun. They’ll get burned soon enough.
If they have demand for 20,000 a month for the rest of the year in the USA, I take back what I’ve said above. But if they sell even 30,000 in the USA in June and 10,000 in July, it seems like they are creating an unsustainable work environment, working big overtime one month and vacations or layoffs the next.

While I agree 100%, I think the pending US tax credit expiration makes it unavoidable.