Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndyH]

Was it ever determined which country it was going to be built in? I know France was tossing some incentives. But Germany would be hilarious, as we take over their market like the BMW and Volkswagen has been doing to us.

I think Poland is also likely after Elon's visit there. The Polish prime minister traveled to US directly afterwards and did an interview with Fox where he talked about what Poland can do for Tesla.

 

[tivoboy]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

 

[Swampgator]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

China.

 

[StealthP3D]

I hope he keeps noise on fsd down.

I've tried to watch enhanced summon videos and so far they are very unimpressive. Slow AF (@SpaceCash where ya been?) and not accurate. Elon said it would blow people's minds but...sigh....

I agree he shouldn't reiterate everything he went over during the investor's day presentation on Autonomy but if he has new information on their progress, I think he should most definitely talk about it.

I think some people here have misinterpreted the freefall of the stock as having something to do with the Autonomy Presentation. I think the two were only related tangentially, in that the bears were already disbelievers in FSD so any talk about it emboldened them to pile on their short positions. That could have been part of the intent.

I also think you misinterpreted Musk's comments that advanced Summon will "blow people's minds" to mean it will perform at a very high level, even upon its initial release. He was referring to the reaction people would have when they saw a driverless car backing out of a parking space and cruising past them in the parking lot with nobody inside. There is no doubt that will blow peoples minds as it really is like an alien thought to people conditioned for their entire lives that moving cars always have a driver. This will create a huge sensation on social media with people freaking out and posting video of it on their feeds. In other words, it will "blow their minds".

 

[dc_h]

I agree that Elon Musk is widely viewed as an optimist.

I disagree that the general perception is that his optimism is blind. You have been in the shorts echo chamber too long. I think he is widely perceived as the modern era's "hands-on", "can do" forward thinking industrialist. A doer, not a dreamer. Can you think of anyone else who can stand shoulder-to-shoulder with him in this regard?

Me in the short echo chamber is silly. To put a finer point on it, Elon has trust issues on Wall Street. The haters are strong there, but many are just momentum investors with no emotional skin in the game. Once Tesla hits some milestones, they’ll walk away from the shorts without a second thought. In the meantime, Elon is shouting in the wind on Wall Street.
Having Karpathy and the other leads speak up on the q3 call last year was my favorite call. It made Tesla seem beyond just Elon and maturing. Since then they have not repeated that process and I’d like to see them bring it back.
I think anyone who thinks it’s a magical coincidence that SpaceX and Tesla have come so far and not due to Elon are anchored to a lie and can’t accept the reality of the situation. Shorts saying SpaceX is nothing special, or easy, or all due to Gwynn’s (who is great!) are either liars or fools.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Reading this I just realized that "the wave" (delivery rate not constant across the duration of a quarter) does not only result from trying to deliver as many cars of those produced by the end of the quarter (emptying the pipeline). Also, from what I understan Tesla has to produce say European cars in batches (not at the same time as US cars) due to differences in the production, like different charge port.

I wonder if there is anything they can do about that? If they in fact have to do the batching as I assumed they will likely always have a wave at least for overseas regions.

Model 3 configuration differences are very minor across the continents and Tesla has 3 final assembly lines. In April/May they loaded ships for EU and China, which have different charge ports, apparently loaded some RHD cars for the UK and also built US/Canada Model 3s. The ability to make multiple variants doesn't suddenly disappear in the 3rd month of the quarter.

The wave is bad business, but it produces prettier quarterly numbers.

 

[anthonyj]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

TT007 wiped out, Greg Wester stopped tweeting, some bulls even turning into bears, just total annihilation

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

According to this Tesla sales person in Shanghai, all Red and White LR RWD, LR AWD & Performance, which are eligible for 3-year 0 interest loan (30% down payment BTW), have been sold out for Q2.

Yeah, that is what is called NO DEMAND!

Edit: maybe we should take that with a grain of salt. Seems 2 more ships are on the way to Shanghai.
It could be that right now some versions are sold out.

 

[dc_h]

TT007 wiped out, Greg Wester stopped tweeting, some bulls even turning into bears, just total annihilation

You’re on a roll!

 

[Swampgator]

China.

Three things.

#1 China EV license plate changes
#2 Giga 3 progress
#3 Signs of strong demand in Chi

 

[NicoV]

Seems to be a lot of interest from Poland as well. They don't have the auto credentials of Germany, and perhaps a somewhat less stable political situation, but they seem more eager to attract Tesla, and it'd likely be cheaper / faster to build, and cheaper to operate, in Poland.

I can't imagine Tesla ever choosing France. They love strikes too much for Tesla's tastes. They're just as protectionist to their current auto industry as Germany is, with the French government owning a large stake in Renault. Etc. I just see nothing that would make them choose France.

It looks to me like a contest between Poland and Germany.

The greenness of the electricitygrid may be a factor. Poland is has by far the dirtiest electricity in Europe, due to almost entirely coal based: Live CO2 emissions of electricity consumption

 

[Lycanthrope]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

$TSLA being ridiculously oversold on FUD and bad sentiment? Doesn't take a lot to turn that around and have it reverse back to where it was. Fundamentals haven't changed, with every passing day, Tesla gets further ahead of the competition, and I use the word "competition" with some reservations.

 

[dc_h]

The greenness of the electricitygrid may be a factor. Poland is has by far the dirtiest electricity in Europe, due to almost entirely coal based: Live CO2 emissions of electricity consumption

So Tesla can do the most good in Poland and take advantage of Germany’s supply chain.

 

[bhtooefr]

The greenness of the electricitygrid may be a factor. Poland is has by far the dirtiest electricity in Europe, due to almost entirely coal based: Live CO2 emissions of electricity consumption

Shame Tesla doesn't know of a solar panel manufacturer or a battery manufacturer whose products they could use to generate and store their own electricity...

 

[Pezpunk]

the only real Tesla killers work on Wall Street.

 

[LN1_Casey]

I think Poland is also likely after Elon's visit there. The Polish prime minister traveled to US directly afterwards and did an interview with Fox where he talked about what Poland can do for Tesla.

Everyone* wants that GF4!

*Excepting for Shorts.

 

[mrmage]

My guess is profit would be better, but cash contribution much worse. I believe there is lots more than $2K in every marginal car cost (real cash, no depreciation) of production

Even more than that, Tesla knows their exact constraints, costs, demand and elasticity which we can only speculate. Since Tesla has a competent management team, I assume they are pricing to grow sustainably, since that’s what EM has said all along.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

the only real Tesla killers work on Wall Street.

They are only disgusting $TSLA manipulators, no more than that.

 

[dqd88]

Seems to be a lot of interest from Poland as well. They don't have the auto credentials of Germany, and perhaps a somewhat less stable political situation, but they seem more eager to attract Tesla, and it'd likely be cheaper / faster to build, and cheaper to operate, in Poland.

I can't imagine Tesla ever choosing France. They love strikes too much for Tesla's tastes. They're just as protectionist to their current auto industry as Germany is, with the French government owning a large stake in Renault. Etc. I just see nothing that would make them choose France.

It looks to me like a contest between Poland and Germany.

Wish they would consider Croatia or Serbia. Much cheaper and just think of the pride they would have as Nikola Tesla was a Serb who was raised in Croatia.

 

[traxila]

Is there anything tangible for this bounce other than the analyst upgrades?

What was tangible about the fifty percent haircut?

You would think a 35 percent bounce just on the fact that Tesla is not actually going bankrupt next week would be due.

Truly good news would mean all time highs for me. This ain’t no 2013 Tesla.