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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Discussion in 'TSLA Investor Discussions' started by AudubonB, Dec 28, 2018.

  1. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    The CleanTechnica Tesla Myths & FAQ page is fantastic!

    A couple of feature requests:

    Please make the individual entries easier to link to, to make the browser scroll to a specific entry when clicked.

    For example if I want to counter panel gap disinformation in a reply and want to link to "Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors", currently the link lands at the top of the page, and the car quality entry is way down.

    I.e. effective FUD busting requires a collection of deep, fine grained links on various topics that are easy to click to. They are the best counter to the collection of smear attacks and innuendo that trolls are copy & pasting. The audience of a reply to FUD is rarely the troll, but the readers of his comment - and making credible backing information easy to link to is key.

    Another possible improvement would be a clear Fact/Myth tagging of topics. Right now it says:

    Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors
    Tesla Myth: Tesla has inferior quality versus competitors

    It might be even more effective to word it this way:

    Tesla Fact: Tesla quality matches or exceeds competitors
    Tesla Myth: Tesla has inferior quality versus competitors

    This could be linked to verbatim, as factual replies to particular disinformation variants. The Fact/Myth contrast and language is easier to quote, especially on Twitter.
     
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  2. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    I find that just rebutting the BS with the facts is the easiest approach and occasionally, I will question some on social media as to why they're constantly spreading negative Tesla news, but never seen to report on the positives.

    I don't see this as hating or even disliking, it's a father objective approach and leads to less emotional discussions.

    That's not to say that I don't sometimes lose my rag, but I try to avoid it.
     
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  3. Antares Nebula

    Antares Nebula Active Member

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    Has this been discussed yet?

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/b-c-government-reduces-ev-rebates-1.5186429

    "
    Starting June 22, the provincial rebate will be worth $3,000 for battery, fuel-cell and longer-range plug-in hybrid electric vehicles and $1,500 for shorter-range plug-in hybrid electric vehicles.

    This is a reduction from the previous incentives which ranged between $2,500 to $6,000, depending on the kind of car.

    Vehicles that were bought or reserved during the previous incentive programs will still qualify for the higher rebates.

    Now, only vehicles sold for under $55,000 qualify for the rebates.

    Previously, the maximum price was $77,000 to qualify.

    The federal rebate of $5,000 for qualifying vehicles, introduced on May 1, is still available.
    "
     
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  4. Antares Nebula

    Antares Nebula Active Member

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    Also saw this (I somehow ended up on a TSLAQ twitter feed. :eek:)

    fly4dat on Twitter
    "Has just confirmed, was contacted by Tesla (at least that) and informed that all SR + deliveries in Switzerland will be canceled again, since the approval of the CH authority is still missing."
     
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  5. Antares Nebula

    Antares Nebula Active Member

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    #67585 Antares Nebula, Jun 25, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
    My new ad:

    Cause:

    Daimler to recall 60,000 Mercedes diesels in Germany over emissions - Reuters

    BMW, Daimler and VW charged with collusion over emissions

    & Effect:

    Children are exposed to a third more toxic car fume than their parents | This is Money

    Restoring Force:

    When are we going to learn? If the auto executives are not going to take responsibility, then conscientious consumers need to. It makes zero sense to buy any ICE car over $30k, when you can buy the world's most advanced production car, with zero emissions, for under $40k (before tax incentives and fuel and maintenance savings).

    Equilibrium
    The Model 3

    Think before you buy. EVs are here and Tesla is the future.
     
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  6. Christine600

    Christine600 Supporting Member

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    • Informative x 7
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  7. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    • Funny x 3
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  8. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #67588 Fact Checking, Jun 25, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
    Wait a minute, do you mean the Russ Mitchell of LA Times who in a recent emotional moment declared that he cannot imagine blocking any of the TSLAQ ringleaders ever, while he is blocking hundreds of Tesla fans?

    To highlight that tweet by Russ Mitchell @ LA Times again, in full context - Mark B. Spiegel, head TSLAQ ringleader, was incoherently ranting about Tesla bankwuptcy once again:

    Mark B. Spiegel on Twitter

    "Lol, yes once $TSLA files 11 we'll all be blocking each other... Kind of like when the warring nations of Earth get together to fight the space aliens, then once we've kicked their asses we go back to fighting each other, lol."
    And Russ Mitchell @ LA Times replied to Mark B. Spiegel with a passionate message:

    Russ Mitchell on Twitter

    "I can’t imagine ever blocking any of you."

    Where the 'you' must refer to Mark B. Spiegel and the TSLAQ cult, because numerous Tesla supporters are still blocked by Russ Mitchell today, because he is using the TSLAQ Twitter censorship block-list ...

    In what world is it OK for a reporter of the LA Times to use the TSLAQ Twitter "enemies list" to block Tesla supporters, and to tweet supportive messages to a deranged, serial misogynistic TSLAQ propagandist??

    While I agree with you, based on your conversation with Ivan Penn @ NYT that he was probably caught up in a storm he didn't intend to get caught up in, and I also believe that he is a good guy at heart and has only the best intentions, as @neroden said it was his name on the article, and the "it wasn't me but my [anonymous] editors" defense sounds hollow and is even more damning if true.

    I also agree with you that the NYT editorial board and Broder in particular does not have direct influence over anything a NYT reporter writes, and that Patrick Soon-Shiong, owner of the LA Times, probably doesn't have to tell any LA Times reporter that they should not bite the hand that is feeding them, and that ... harsh criticism of a business competitor is not a career ending move either.

    I also agree with you that unjustified, over the top criticism of successful reporters is counterproductive, and that the tone of our criticism should always be civilized and should always be rooted in facts, is it your suggestion that we should just sit together and sing Kumbaya, while the TSLAQ terrorists and the many reporters and editors in the mass media aiding and abetting them are pushing a burning world towards the abyss?


    I don't expect fair Tesla and green technology coverage from Fox News or redstate.com, but The New York Times and the LA Times are both bastions of the liberal political Zeitgeist, they should be at the front line to inform the public about global warming and the ways to most effectively fight it, such as the electrification of transportation.

    Also, we are not asking for much, we are not asking them to (gasp) support Tesla's mission although it would be the morally right thing to do considering their political affiliation - we simply expect these major newspapers to report neutrally and factually about Tesla and EVs in general and not hinder them unfairly.

    The negative skew in Tesla and EV reporting is astounding, at the same time the NY Times is misleading readers about nonexistent 5+ hour charge times on a single-recharge road trip to Las Vegas, a Model 3 owner on a Tesla v3 Supercharger demonstrated a charging speed from 10% to 60% (160 miles, 250 kilometers) of around ~12 minutes:


    Instead the New York Times and the LA Times are de facto protecting the status quo, disinforming the part of the public that is ready to do something, sometimes in the most horrible ways, and our criticism is not nearly as harsh as the crime that is being committed deserves.
     
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  9. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    Sorry, but he's totally wrong, it's definitely 89,657
     
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  10. LN1_Casey

    LN1_Casey Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus

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    Pft; Definitely 89,765.
     
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  11. Lycanthrope

    Lycanthrope S3XY old dude

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    At least it's just Suisse, can't be huge numbers. SR+ delivered in NO, so EFTA ok and I think Elizabeth S's car is an SR+ and she took delivery, so EU is OK.
     
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  12. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Here's my VIN-ology "85% method" production estimates (which missed spectacularly in Q1) update for Q2:
    • Method 1: 99,445 Model 3 VIN's registered up to today, 85% of which is Q2 production of 84,528 Model 3's.
    • Method 2: if we also add the 5,390 VINs registered in the final week of Q1 (which might have been allocated for Q2 already), we get 104,835 VINs and a Q2 production of 89,109 Model 3's. This definitely looks too high, but wanted to mention it for completeness. Probably 'Method 1' is overestimating production already.
    Estimating Model S/X production and mapping it to global deliveries is even more difficult and uncertain:
    • Model S/X production was possibly hindered in Q2 as well:
      • by the Raven refresh,
      • by the (reportedly) ongoing Model Y retooling,
      • by Tesla's attempts to flush pre-Raven inventory by slow-walking Raven availability,
      • by any homologation delays of Raven.
    • While the Q1'19 low point of 14k S+X units made will probably be exceeded, a pessimistic range of 15k to the high marks of Q2'18 of 24.7k and Q2'17 of 25.7k are not out of question. My (random) guess for a Q2 is a more conservative 19k of Model S+X produced.
    • Some Model 3's will probably be stuck in transit - such as SR+ deliveries in Switzerland. Tesla will probably try to put on a good face and call any increase over the Q1'19 in-transit 10.6k units the "unwinding of the wave". :D
    • China is a black box, as usual.
    So if we take the Model 3 VINology range of 84k-89k and combine it with the gut-estimated S/X production of 15k-24k, we get a broad range for production of 99k-113k - which is quite possibly too high.

    If in-transit units increase from Q1'19 levels of 10.6k to say 20.6k, then we get a Q2 deliveries range of 89k-103k.

    if we take Troy's estimate of 89.6k global deliveries, that's at the low end of the VINology range, assuming a healthy bump in in-transit vehicles.

    Note that it's also possible that Tesla will miss their guided range by a few thousand units (the TSLAQ cult is predicting 85k and lower deliveries), and that they'll have to lower their FY2019 lower guidance of 360k deliveries as well: they did 63k deliveries in Q1 and if they do 85k deliveries in Q2 then the H1'2019 total is 148 and they'd have to deliver 212k in H2 - or Q3 would have to be 25% over Q2 deliveries, which does not seem probable considering the tax cliff effect.

    Warning: big error bars, questionable and historically unreliable methodology, not advice.
     
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  13. Right_Said_Fred

    Right_Said_Fred Moderator

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    Quick update on the situation in The Netherlands. SR+ deliveries started a few days ago, so no homologation issues in the EU.

    Q1 saw 2707 Model 3 registrations, of which an astounding 1469 were registered during the last 5 days of March. Q2 so far saw 2278 Model 3 registrations. We need just 429 more during the last 5 days of June to break the registration record.
     
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  14. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    I suspect the biggest influx of used vehicles into Tesla's inventory is when Model S/X units sold in 2016 go off the ~3 years lease?

    Their lease percentage is around 10%, so that would be ~2.5k units per quarter - 1k-2k if some of the owners decide to keep pre-HW2 units or sell it privately at a premium which I suspect some would if it has free Supercharging.
     
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  15. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Note that the corrupting effect of advertising on the quality and bias of news reporting has also been quantified, the fact that automotive advertising reduces coverage of car safety recalls from the advertising car manufacturer has been documented scientifically in two independent studies:

    The study's findings are unambiguous: the supposedly click-bait hungry, if-it-bleeds-it-leads mass media suddenly loses interest in negative stories that involve their own advertisers...

    This has an automatic effect on Tesla coverage: if the media is covering VW's and Mercedes's recalls and poison gas emission 'problems' sympathetically, because those carmakers are spending tens of billions of dollars per year on advertisements:

    [​IMG]
    ... then by definition Tesla is getting comparatively biased coverage.
     
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  16. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    Forgot to reply to this comment of yours from a few weeks ago.

    The threshold of evidence of proof of corruption you seem to require related to biased Tesla reporting is very, very high that will almost never be met unless the (purported) perpetrators are willing to publish evidence of their (alleged) crimes.

    And yes, in many, I'd say most cases I agree that simple incompetence, bandwagon effects and 'conventional wisdom' are to blame for bad Tesla reporting, and it's probably helpful to de-escalate any knee-jerk responses.

    The best kind of evidence of media advertising related corruption we can realistically hope for are the kind of statistical results that these studies arrived at, circumstantial evidence and plain old fashioned logic based on newspaper's and reporters' "financial self interest".

    Also note that there's a conscious effort by TSLAQ cult to actively smear both Tesla and the Tesla community, and they also launch organized attacks against reporters who are reporting about Tesla positively, such as the attacks against Pulitzer Prize winner Dan Neil which cased him to delete his Twitter account:

    Also, the TSLAQ ringleaders have weaponized social media to magnify their influence well over their real numbers - again because most of them know that what they are running is, in effect, a confidence scheme, or at least they know that it's illegal to bash public companies for profits.

    The Tesla community is much larger but also a lot less organized - not the least because their primary motivation is not to fraudulently enrich themselves by spreading false information about a publicly traded company they have shorted. ;)

    So the Tesla community is a lot more organic and disorganized - and this is how the TSLAQ shouting can often drown out the Tesla community response.

    You are welcome! Did you get a read of his opinion on this topic, if you can share?

    But generally the "who watches the watchers" discussions within journalistic circles are unusually unproductive, especially in the Trump era.
     
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  17. Fact Checking

    Fact Checking Well-Known Member

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    #67597 Fact Checking, Jun 25, 2019
    Last edited: Jun 25, 2019
    Latest TSLA short interest report from Ihor:

    If his report is accurate (which is not a given) and there's low volume trading this week, then there are going to be a record high number of ~46M shorts going into the Q2'19 delivery report.

    The number of 169k Robinhood users holding TSLA long (which is an approximation of retail long interest) is also near the historic highs of 170k:


    This kind of positioning could magnify "Tesla Q2 production and deliveries report" related volatility via three channels:
    • summer trading is historically thinner, so shares available to buy or sell will be seasonally lower,
    • and the relative surprise factor is higher as well due to the polarized short/long positions, and the polarization is in both directions: for example in May 2018 there were record shorts but not record number of retail longs holding.
    • the July 4th week is also a historic week when many Wall Street sources and sinks of liquidity go for a vacation.
    If Tesla "misses" then I'd expect a bear raid like in July 2018 which drove TSLA from $364 to $296 within three days, if Tesla robustly exceeds expectations there could be a significant amount of short covering and plenty of new longs as well at these attractive price levels.

    So this could be a good opportunity for options spread bets (long strangle, etc.), and I'd be careful with leveraged positions and margin.

    Not advice.
     
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  18. RobPet

    RobPet Member

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    Sort of OT:

    Lightyear One revealed. Specs compared to a Tesla are less (slower charge, slower acceleration), but the (apparent) incredible efficiency makes up for that (should probably be around 100 Wh/km). OTA updates is nice, too.

    1.25 kWp Solar is will give you quite a bit of 'free' range (up to 12 km/h).

    Lightyear One

    Should watch the Fully Charged episode uploaded yesterday:

    For the cheap price of €149.000 ;)
     
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  19. acoste

    acoste Member

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    Model 3 Scratches All Over And What Tesla's Tech Said
     
    • Disagree x 1
  20. EVMeister

    EVMeister Lover of Tesla

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    • Like x 7

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