and not everyone subscribes to S3s service, therefore not everyone reports their #s to S3, so it’s not doctrine. but it’s a decent guideline. nobody has an inside look at everyone’s book at any given point in time. if they are off by a few million from what nasdaq reports 10 days ago..well, i’m fine with that. it’s still a staggering number of short interest.
What sound does an alarm clock make in Europe? 2021 CO2 targets would generate €34 billion euros in penalty payments within Europe | JATO How to reduce the penalty? "The conclusion of this study is the worst case scenario for manufacturers. We are assuming that nothing would change from now until 2021, and unfairly excluding the plans for electrification. Effectively, OEMs can claim up to 7.5 g/km of CO2 from 2020 to 2022 to offset their total CO2 number for vehicles that meet the eco-innovation criteria. "Moreover, we will definitely see many models dropped where investment to reduce their averages is larger than the profits generated. This will include the axing of more combustion engines, large and heavy cars, or those slow-selling models. To sum up, the manufacturers may have the technology to launch cleaner cars and alternatives to reduce the fines – their only limitation is time." Spoiler Tick Tock 2021
Tesla is not sending any SR+ to Norway this quarter, which is upsetting some buyers as they were quoting June deliver in May... People are now offered better deals on the LR AWD if they can take delivery this week. So there is demand for SR+ in Norway, but Tesla decided at the last moment to send them elsewhere in Europe Model 3 SR+ forventet levering?
Dutch June EV sales (as of the 25th). EV market share is 6,7% Tesla market share: 54% #nocompetition and SP+ just arrived.
Ihor is terribly wrong again. Didn't trust his model since last big miss. A simpeler model would give better results. For every 10% movement in stock, adjust SI by 5%.
t Even if you're production constrained you'd like as many buyers as you can to better streamline production. e.g. if you can build 1000 cars a day, and currently 900 is LR and 100 SR+ you'd like to sell 100 additional LR so you'd build 1000 in batches and sell quickly. I find it really silly ppl claiming Elon says buy my cars, so there must be no demand. Wht about ICE manufacturers marketing every day. no demand?
Here's a positive Forbes article to end the day with.... Tesla Beating Competitors Even With Its Hands Tied "Car and Driver said Tesla's Model 3 was the best-selling luxury car in America for 2018. This is even more impressive when you consider that only 10 states allow Tesla's direct sales model, 11 states have banned it, and many states restrict Tesla to just a few stores. In short, Tesla outsold every other luxury car with its hands tied behind its back. Consider that the next time you read that Model 3 demand has peaked. [emphasis added] ... Auto dealers cannot say they oppose Tesla's direct sales model because it threatens their business. So they have to say, with a straight face, that restricting Tesla is necessary to protect consumers. I'm not surprised that they are willing to make this argument. What surprises me is how effective they've been with such a flimsy argument. .... Although Tesla is the worst performing stock my bear market portfolio, I take comfort in seeing enough customers jump through the artificial hoops put in place by organizations like VADA to make the Model 3 the best selling luxury car for 2018. Imagine what Tesla sales would be if there were no artificial hoops their customers had to jump through?"
So, I keep seeing stories like this, but isn’t the whole point moot? I thought Tesla went to all online ordering from California. The real challenge is Service Centers, and whether states allow those. I mean, I like press that shows how callow the auto dealers are, but I thought Tesla had triangulated around the whole issue.
It's not moot because many people still want to see and drive the car in person. Others want someone there to explain clearly what the choices are. Those of us, such as myself and probably most TMC followers, who do almost all shopping on the net don't have a problem or need for stores, but there are a still lot of folks that aren't technology oriented.
Two large possible market moving events next week to keep in mind, especially if you have any short dated TSLA options: 1. Over the weekend Trump & Xi will meet at G-20. Although not likely, a surprise tariff reduction/elimination deal would likely cause a huge pop for markets on Monday. A delay/stop in new proposed increased tariffs going ahead would likely be good for markets also. 2. Tesla delivery numbers probably land before market close Friday (not guaranteed of course). Delivery numbers sometimes come with comments which include earnings expectations adjustments. A reminder that Tesla guided for 90k-100k deliveries and “...significantly reduce our loss in Q2”, so while anything is possible, probably not wise to expect any sort of GAAP profit for a delivery figure anywhere between 85k-100k.
Elon during the shareholder investor day said cash flow positive from this point on, saying hitting GAAP profit is very hard given their growth trajectory. Essentially GAAP + is no longer in any future guide.
Every week, I read nothing but good news about the EV market and Tesla. Cities banning ICE vehicles, countries setting dates in the near future to ban ICE vehicles completely, crazy EV growth in the worlds largest car market (China), EV production issues and battery shortages for Tesla's competitors, tariff exemptions for Tesla with huge battery growth planned, best mid-luxury car, safest vehicles, AP3, growing demand, etc., etc. And yet, another down day and the SP is nowhere near 360 or even 300. What in the hell is wrong with the stock market?
For the general press I honestly think it has more to do with the fact that many reporters don't earn enough money to afford Tesla's offerings and or they perceive them to be for the rich. When it comes to automotive reporters my theory is more that they are and have been for a long time in bed with the traditional automakers. They provide press cars, paid for trips to exotic locations etc etc... Why bite the hand that feeds them?
With the quarter coming to a close, I wanted to outline what we know, or think we know, about deliveries. North America. Our information comes primarily from InsideEVs’ monthly estimates and Electrek’s unnamed sources. Take with however many grains of salt you deem appropriate. InsideEVs estimates that Tesla delivered more vehicles in the first 2 months of Q2 than they did in all of Q1. Electrek’s unnamed sources say Tesla has delivered more than 49k vehicles with 6 days left, and is delivering more than 1k per day recently. That suggests a minimum of 55k North American deliveries. 1.5k deliveries per day would bump that to 58k deliveries. 2k deliveries per day (which seems unrealistic to me, but maybe) would mean 61k North American deliveries. I’ll assume 55-58k.
Huge loss from Q1 even though the narrative was sold to Tesla investors in 2016 that once the MOdel 3 is out, Tesla revenue will go through the roof. Elon continued to reiterated this throughout 2018, hence the "we will be profitable after q3". Q3 and Q4 were profitable and investors were reassured. Then a huge loss happened in Q1. Then Tesla raised capital, and then said the capital raised will be gone in 10 months if they don't cut spending(not exactly what he said but doesn't exactly give investor the confidence on that promise from 2016). Tesla is a speculation stock. When the dream failed in a spectacular fashion like Q1, this stock will fall like a rock until confidence is regained. The market is not being irrational here. The evaluation given to Tesla right before the Model 3 have proved itself was pretty high.