Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

For raw data geeks, the EU demand metrics to watch over the spring is this community-maintained spreadsheet:

Tesla Model 3: Europa Bestellungen/Europe Orders​

In particular on the "Orders per country" sheet, the last column is very helpfully listing "Market penetration", which shows how much upwards potential there is still for Tesla. For Norway and Switzerland there's 935 and 171 Model 3 orders per 1 million citizens - market penetration is reasonably high.

The two biggest markets: Germany and France have a market penetration of 38 and 18 Model 3 orders per 1 million citizens, which is very low, and which I'm sure will increase over the spring as the weather is getting better and more test-drives are available.

German customers for example do not like to buy new cars in the winter unless they are offered at steep discounts. Winter brings a higher risk of fender-bender accidents with your shiny new car in dense urban traffic, and there's also all the winter slush you'll bring in to the new carpet and the car will be dirty all day as well. When the roads start drying up in March-May is when new car sales are ticking up.

The data is reasonably reliable, because it only depends on the serially increasing invoice number the EU mandates. So the largest invoice number reported (as long as it's not an outlier) should be a good lower limit for number of outstanding orders. (Assuming low order cancellation rates.)

Another interesting information ASP is about $74k (includes VAT). 84% P model and 73% EAP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Another interesting information ASP is about $74k (includes VAT)

Yes, Tesla will have to pay in the VAT from that, so net ASP is around $60k - roughly in line with Q3 ASP.

 

[Fact Checking]

Very curious discrepancy between your view towards China, Trump and lastly- your nickname. Some might say- biased.

Yeah, I know, facts have a liberal bias.

(And, as usual, I'm willing to defend my viewpoints if any discrepancies are outlined in detail, and will adjust them constantly if my logic is flawed or when new data arrives. For now I don't see any big discrepancy between my China views and Trump views.)

Also, polarizing political views notwithstanding I've got plenty of conservative friends and fully accept that it's a valid way to view life. So please forgive the needling over Trump, who's not the ... most stellar demonstration of conservative values I believe.

 

[Pezpunk]

The merit of the Taycan née Mission-E lies in staking Porsche's claim to future relevance [they get to live another day], but also in truly "legitimizing" EVs in Germany. Sad but so, I think. Should work for Tesla.

right. let some companies OTHER than Tesla do some of the heavy lifting of convincing people EVs are viable. at the very least, it gets companies like Porsche etc to stop spreading anti-EV FUD.

 

[keydiver]

How big a deal is no lunar new year holiday in China? Is this something that is skipped for something moderately important or only high priority projects?

Very big. EVERY manufacturer that I deal with in China is completely shut down from February 3rd thru the 13th. Most employees travel back home to the country for the holiday. I have never heard of any exceptions like this before.

 

[Fact Checking]

let some companies OTHER than Tesla do al lthe heavy lifting of convincing people EVs are viable.

The biggest ICE carmakers started advertising EVs in Europe, and it will have a big effect on consumers I believe.

For example here's Mercedes doing free advertising on behalf of Tesla, demonstrating advantages of EVs during road trips:

 

[JRP3]

OT

There's an idea, recommend this option instead of bashing Tesla. I've always made out like a bandit (not my dog in this case) by being friendly, like offering a solution and showing empathy for their growing pains here.

Just an advice.

Right, I'm a long time irrational Tesla basher

To be clear, pointing out actual flaws in the company is not bashing. Keep your head in the sand at your own risk.

 

[avoigt]

Demand issues?

(...) Alpha Hat’s data for the first couple weeks of the year shows that Tesla continues to deliver a surprisingly healthy number of vehicles in the US. As of 1/13, we believe that Tesla has delivered approximately 6,050 vehicles in the US, with ~5,000 being Model 3s. This compares to 6,800 vehicles (5,500 Model 3s) in the first 13 days of the previous quarter according to our data. While Q1 trails Q4 by 10–11% so far, we are surprised that Tesla has been able to deliver even this level of volume given the big delivery push prior to the new year and the expiry of the full federal EV tax credit. (...)

https://blog.alphahat.com/teslas-us-q1-deliveries-are-surprisingly-high-so-far-e87cd1df54f8

P.S. lets take into account that Q1 is always weak versus Q4 and most importantly all the 3s that are on ships to Europe and China right now.

Thanks @Ellec

 

[Fact Checking]

Talking about efficiency: $500 for driving 25,000 miles.

Thats amazing! $2 for 100 miles. In Germany I paid with my old ICE car about $32 for 100 miles.

The Model 3 is 16 times cheaper in driving 100 miles..... Thats incredible. Any questions about demand in Europe?

Just some quick math: that's about $7,500 of savings in 25,000 miles of driving.

$7,500 seems to be a popular number in EV calculations.

Mod: Fixed 0 for you.
edit: Thank you mod!

 

[UncaNed]

. I have a hunch we may eventually see both a five and a longer seven seater.

Longer versions of existing autos are a great way to leverage any design into other markets. Same cross section, so same air resistance, vastly increased comfort and utility if my Model X had just a couple more inches between rows and in the back for cargo, almost no effect on driving and parking... Perhaps an even more extended "delivery van" version. I think I read that there was a market for "chauffeured offices" with more room in back in china too.

 

[Cherry Wine]

Just some quick math: that's about $7,500 of savings in 25,000 miles of driving.

$7,500 seems to be a popular number in EV calculations.

Mod: Fixed 0 for you.
edit: Thank you mod!

How so? 25,000 miles at 25/mpg = 1,000 gallons x $4/gal = $4,000, or $3,500 in savings.

 

[theschnell]

Yeah, I know, facts have a liberal bias.

(And, as usual, I'm willing to defend my viewpoints if any discrepancies are outlined in detail, and will adjust them constantly if my logic is flawed or when new data arrives. For now I don't see any big discrepancy between my China views and Trump views.)

Also, polarizing political views notwithstanding I've got plenty of conservative friends and fully accept that it's a valid way to view life. So please forgive the needling over Trump, who's not the ... most stellar demonstration of conservative values I believe.

Best OT post EVER!!!!!!!

 

[anthonyj]

Talking about efficiency: $500 for driving 25,000 miles.

Thats amazing! $2 for 100 miles. In Germany I paid with my old ICE car about $32 for 100 miles.

The Model 3 is 16 times cheaper in driving 100 miles..... Thats incredible. Any questions about demand in Europe?

When people wake up and finally realize how much they can save they will embrace BEVs and never return.


13h13 hours ago
Only 6400kw to drive 25,000 miles in our @Tesla Model3. For my non EV friends, we charge at home every evening for .08 cents Kw which is just over $500 in electricity

Can’t wait to add our Tesla Power Wall and solar. Thank You @elonmusk !

27 replies57 retweets657 likes
Twitter. It's what's happening.

In NJ I’m getting 600 wh/mi. Still about half the price of gas

 

[NicoV]

Where do these ads run? I don't watch TV.

Local (major) commercial TV stations in Belgium (and probably also in the neighbouring countries).

 

[AlexS]

Sorry guys but, why do you vote up Sean's question. Tesla absolutely understands the problem with service capacity why do you want to give shorts real thing to scream about?

Say

I hope Elon will tweet something about service improvement before the ER, so this question will not be asked.

And after you will be getting better service in US, please post and make videos about it. I can see that from RichRebuild comments that people are canceling and are afraid of ordering used Teslas. Youtube is very powerful tool these days.

Maybe someone from US can tell if anything has changed already in January? after they finished quarter end sales push?

 

[UncaNed]

Local (major) commercial TV stations in Belgium (and probably also in the neighbouring countries).

I don't watch TV either.

 

[Fact Checking]

(...) Alpha Hat’s data for the first couple weeks of the year shows that Tesla continues to deliver a surprisingly healthy number of vehicles in the US. As of 1/13, we believe that Tesla has delivered approximately 6,050 vehicles in the US, with ~5,000 being Model 3s. This compares to 6,800 vehicles (5,500 Model 3s) in the first 13 days of the previous quarter according to our data. While Q1 trails Q4 by 10–11% so far, we are surprised that Tesla has been able to deliver even this level of volume given the big delivery push prior to the new year and the expiry of the full federal EV tax credit. (...)

Here's a summary of the latest quarterly inventory data on Model 3's, based on Tesla's delivery reports alone:

   =========|============|=============|============|===========|=========|======
   quarter  | production |  deliveries | Δinventory | inventory | transit | fleet
   =========|============|=============|============|===========|=========|======
   2017/Q2  |          0 |           0 |          0 |         0 |       0 |     0
   2017/Q3  |        260 |         220 |        +60 |        60 |      40 |    20
   2017/Q4  |      2,425 |       1,550 |       +875 |       935 |     860 |    75
   2018/Q1  |      9,766 |       8,180 |     +1,586 |     2,521 |   2,040 |   480
   2018/Q2  |     28,578 |      18,440 |    +10,138 |    12,659 |  11,166 | 1,493
   2018/Q3  |     53,239 |      55,840 |     -2,601 |    10,058 |   8,048 | 2,010
   2018/Q4  |     61,394 |      63,150 |     -1,756 |     8,302 |   1,010 | 7,292

This suggests that the ~5,200 extra fleet of new Model 3's Tesla kept in inventory at the end of Q4 was possibly able to sustain a good chunk of U.S. demand in January, while Fremont was churning out high margin European and Chinese versions.

Since the time window to get new Model 3's to Europe and China closes sometime in late February, every lower margin unit made for the U.S. market is a lost high-margin sale. This I believe explains the inventory build-up at the end of Q4: it was intentional. (This would be confirmation for what @Curt Renz has indicated previously as well.)

Any backlog on U.S. orders can be caught up with March production.

What's amazing to me about this is that if Tesla is truly making 6k+ cars per week as Carsonight indicates, then that suggests an effective Standard Range Fremont assembly throughput in the 7k-9k/week range: these high spec AWD and Performance versions take a lot more manufacturing effort to make. (Twice the drive train, premium interior, larger battery packs, more complex seats, glass roof, etc.)

So these January numbers, if they verify, are suggesting a further ramp-up in Model 3 manufacturing capacity.

 

[elasalle]

Elon Musk on Twitter
Testing metallic heat shield at 1100C (2000F) @SpaceX
.. short burn coming lol

 

[Buckminster]

...I wonder if not running the heat and running in eco mode may have actually contributed to poor range, by not heating the battery at all.

Okay - I have said this before and it didn't go down well.
1) Tesla are accelerating sustainable transport
and
2) In some cases decelerating sustainable transport

The IPace is too ambitious IMO. They felt like they could and should take on Tesla directly and beat them at their own game without 10 years prior experience. They have done a great job but sometimes getting 90% towards your target means falling into the chasm. A Defender replacement (like Bollinger) would have allowed JLR to experiment without any embarrassment whatsoever. Hyundai and Taycan news today backs this up further. If these guys can't make a profit, I don't see them wholeheartedly going for it. We predicted they would be in a pickle - we were right. If they collectively have a shareholder's backlash that stops them investing - they will all be doomed. They have a long way down before they can start rising from the ashes - best to start now or wait? If Tesla hadn't been as good, they would be making profit and investing further. I realise that this is not what most of you think, but I just have to say it again to get it off my chest.

 

[homer214]

Let me post this stream of China news again, putting it into full context:

Vincent on Twitter

"2. Chen Jie, Shanghai Lingang Development & Construction Mgt Committee: In order to speed up the #tesla Shanghai GF3 construction, the Shanghai Lingang Gov changed the construction approval. Normal approval takes 15 months & #Tesla project only took 5 months."

Vincent on Twitter

"1. Chinese gov media CCTV reported: Construction company said they speeding up the #tesla Shanghai Gigafactory project and did not receive the Lunar New Year holiday notice."​

The Lunar New Year is a usual annual ~10 days of happy festivities in China, while absolutely nothing gets done by anyone, anywhere. Except the Shanghai Gigafactory construction site, which will keep on building GF3.

Remember, China is not our usual western economy when pushing big, prestigious industrial projects:

• The construction company building GF3 is one of the biggest ones, owned by the Chinese state.
• Most Chinese banks are state owned as well, and Tesla got a $3b loan in record time.
• The Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory got a large industrial power connection to the electrical grid in record time, 3 times faster than the average approval and build-out time.
  
• Can you imagine the U.S. government exempting Tesla construction work from federal holiday rules?

China is in many ways still a dictatorship ruled by technocrats, where 90%+ of the high level Chinese leaders have a stellar educational background in engineering or sciences.

See:

TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable
Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019 Investors' Roundtable​

If there's a political leadership anywhere on the planet that "gets" Tesla, then I believe it's the Chinese.

History will prove Tesla is handling Shanghai GF3 construction, etc. process well and timing this project perfectly or nearly so. It’s time to enjoy a GREEN Friday.