Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MarcusMaximus]

ASP of Model 3 stable at $50k, despite availability of SR/SR+. Not bad.

 

[LJS22]

On to Q3. Pretty sure Musk said that they would return to profitability then.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

Note that Tesla increased 2019 guidance of Model 3 production from 7k/week to 8k/week:

"The production rate of Model 3 continued to improve gradually throughout the quarter, breaking a monthly record in May and then again in June. All manufacturing equipment in Fremont has demonstrated capability of a 7,000 Model 3 vehicles per week run rate, which we continue to work to increase. We aim to produce 10,000 total vehicles of
all models per week by the end of 2019."​

If S/X production is 2k/week then Model 3 production is 8k/week.

As suspected, after market trading is used by shorts to generate a big drop and dictate the Q2 narrative.

That sentence is from Model 3 section. I think “all models” means all Model 3 models (ie, including Giga 3)

 

[joefee]

I also see this drop as an over reaction to the down side. Don't forget...the earnings call has not happened yet....that also moves the stock!!!!

 

[ggr]

A positive tidbit: they actually delivered more cars (95,356) than they said at the beginning of July (95,200).

 

[KSilver2000]

Every time, man!

This has been the dominating pattern in recent history with TSLA. Ignoring everything, including the chatter here and Tesla business in general, just looking at it statistically, one would expect lower SP after earnings. Tesla doesn’t disappoint in this regard.

Now we’ll get similar arguments made after Q1 going into Q3 ER. Trying to justify why losing (paper) money is just another walk in the park. Almost feels like TSLA should be green right now.

 

[Ellec]

Tesla is a long term stock, the quarterly results are noise. Look at the revenue YoY or better x3 YoY

 

[Fact Checking]

Pretty good ASP, take rates, margins and CoGs of the Model 3:

"During the quarter, a majority of orders continued to be for a long-range battery option and the Model 3 average selling price (ASP) was stable at approximately $50,000. At the same time, manufacturing costs continued to decline."​

Also, better margins expected on the Model Y:

"Preparations for Model Y production in Fremont began in Q2. Due to a significant overlap of components between Model 3 and Model Y, we are able to leverage existing manufacturing designs in the development of the Model Y production facilities. Additionally, we are making progress managing Model Y cost with only a minimal cost premium expected over Model 3. Due to the large market size for SUVs, as well as higher ASPs, we believe Model Y will be a more profitable product than the Model 3."​

 

[EVNow]

Some thoughts.

The main difference between consensus estimate and what they reported is restructuring cost of $117M. Excluding restructuring cost, here is what it looks like :

Factset Estimate : -0.35
My estimate : -0.31
Actual EPS : -0.45 (-1.12 including restructuring) [ps : this was -0.28, see note below]

Factset Rev Estimate : $6.47B
My Rev estimate : $6.523B
Actual Revenue : $6.349B

Free Cash Flow estimate : $136M
My FCF estimate : $858M
Actual FCF : $614B (excluding restructuring, $731M)

PS : We have to figure out why there is a difference between non-gaap loss reported at the top $167M and on page 9. There is a difference of 31M. Either we'll see the explanation in ER call or in 10-Q.

At the Top :

Gaap : ($408M) EPS : (2.31)
non-Gaap : ($167M) EPS : (0.94)

On Page 9 :

Gaap : ($408M) EPS : (2.31)
non-Gaap : ($198M) EPS : (1.12)
​

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Horrible profits (seriously, wtf)

Good cash flow

Idk what to say other than I’m not selling

I've been holding since Feb 2013 - will never sell. It's not about the money for me. It's about the mission. But I don't like giving the haters this kind of ammunition.

They will be emboldened by this report. I was really hoping for a beat on every metric.

 

[homer214]

Not clicking on a single piece of fuddy propaganda this week until the grownups stabilize this nonsensical drop in SP.

 

[Chartered321]

Very positive results. After market action is a nonsense as it was the last 6 months. As a long term investor what I see is very promising especially given such a strong competition

 

[cliffski]

During the quarter, a majority of orders continued to
be for a long-range battery option and the Model 3
average selling price (ASP) was stable at
approximately $50,000. At the same time,
manufacturing costs continued to decline.

How is anyone selling stock when they read this? Shorts whined like crazy that tesla wouldnt be able to make a profit because the cheaper Model 3 would squeeze margins, and everyone would buy the lowest model. Seems like ASAP is pretty ****ing high to me, and the relentless focus on cost cutting (even before we factor in the new model Y casting/wiring advances) means things are only going to get better.

I lvoe how the shorts focus on manufacturing and margins, because they dont want to accept this simple fact:
There is zero demand problem, and teslas biggest problem is making the cars fast enough for the customers who want them.

 

[neroden]

Just got a software push while driving on my classic S... Must be important. Hope they fixed the 85 batteries they nerfed

I suspect it's the fix for the infinite loop:
Musk confirms/Tesla Refutes upgradeability from MCU1 to MCU2

I started a thread to track Tesla's deficient software development practices. Only for stuff which would never have happened if they did proper testing, please.

 

[Lycanthrope]

So, AH volume is 2.5m, that’ll be the shorts out of almost - should be the bottom:

Not an advice.

 

[neroden]

And in real long-term investment news:

Tesla (the company) killing itself slowly?

Discussion over to the service thread, though.
Neroden on service (out of main)

 

[dc_h]

Nice to see this finally starting to add up. Add in solar picking up in 2nd half and energy should start running at 100% growth for a few years.

Energy: Powerwall and Powerpack deployment grew by 81% in the second quarter to a record 415 MWh. Powerwalls are now installed at more than 50,000 sites. Additional cell supply combined with our new module line designed by Tesla Grohmann enabled a step change in energy storage production. Solar retrofit deployments declined sequentially to 29 MW. We are in the process of improving many aspects of this business to increase deployments.​

 

[sundaymorning]

just disappointed by the fact that the idea of a "record quarter on every level" was circulated and this artificially inflated my personal expectations.

-leasing will hit the bottom line.
-SX sales still down compared to Q3/4 of 2018.
-Capex is high bc of Shanghai.

Don’t be too down, it’s going to be a “long” kind of game. Keep your eye on the goal.

 

[oneday]

So we hit the 10% circuit breaker limit in after hours. Does that trigger the uptick rule for tomorrow? Or does it have to be during normal trading hours?

 

[traxila]

So, AH volume is 2.5m, that’ll be the shorts out of almost - should be the bottom:

Not an advice.

Truly, who else exactly would be selling in such a frothy manner over this outside of shorts and traders?

This board did call it about the massive number of shares that were corralled to short. Let's see if they blew their wad or if it will continue tomorrow. Hard time imagining green tomorrow. If that were to happen for whatever reason then yes, short squeeze would certifiably be imminent. Maybe Elon has some news about another couple of bill coming from FCA to tell us about in the call