Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[UncaNed]

GREEN!

 

[SpaceCash]

...he's also supported other white supremacists like Ben Shapiro...

Dude. Ben Shapiro is JEWISH.

 

[Menifeer]

... why would you do that?

Since I don't expect the stock to rise to those levels this week, not selling them would be like leaving money lying on the table...

 

[elasalle]

The Case For Tesla's "Business Miracle" | Loup Ventures

 

[gora321]

Wow, is that a full house, or a royal flush?

View attachment 372649

Helpful was missing so I...

 

[TSLA Pilot]

Ark Invest - January 14: Big Ideas 2019 — As Convergence Accelerates, Innovation Advances

Includes articles on "Battery Cost Tipping Points" and "Autonomous Taxi Networks".

Tesla is the overall largest holding within ARK's ETFs: ARK Innovation ETFs

*****************************************

Even ARK missed the obvious here: The SpaceX and Tesla connection.

You don't have to Level 5 autonomy if Level 4+ is good enough, which it is nearly all the time.

Even GM shows how simple situations can flummox the most sophisticated systems:

Taco Truck Stumps GM/Cruise Self-Driving Car During San Francisco Media Demonstrations | CleanTechnica

So what does this have to do with SpaceX and Tesla?

Starlink (satellite constellation) - Wikipedia

Having an entire constellation of satellites could be very useful when an autonomous car needs just a wee bit of human assistance . . . which would make both Level 4+ and Level 5 autonomy doable so much faster than they would be otherwise.

 

[Carl Raymond]

One thing I don't often see discussed on self driving cars is the enormous value of a 1-2 year first mover advantage.

The first 1-3 million self driving cars on the road are still going to be massively outnumbered by the 30 million+ global taxi fleet. This means there is no incentive to charge less than Uber/Lyft per mile until the global taxi fleet is saturated with self driving cars and competition begins to drive the cost of cars down. In fact many customers would be willing to pay a premium over Uber/Lyft for the novelty, increased safety, and premium Tesla passenger experience.
If Tesla switches on 1 million self driving cars and is first to market, each of those cars could potentially generate over $200k cash flow per year (after electricity, service, cleaning costs etc) until the market starts to get saturated with 3 million+ self driving cars. Even when other companies deliver self driving technology, it is going to take a long time to get a global fleet of enough numbers to put the entire global taxi industry out of business. Almost all Tesla owners will be persuaded to send their $40-60k cars to work for Tesla's fleet for $30-50k annual profit. It doesn't make business sense for Tesla to give its customers a larger share of the profit than it needs to to persuade everyone to send their cars to work. So I can see Tesla keeping $150k cash flow per car and its 1 million self driving car fleet making Tesla $150bn cash flow in year one.

I feel there is a media misunderstanding on what is required to win this race. The winner is not the first mass produced fully autonomous car. It is the first mass produced fully autonomous electric car.

If the first autonomous car is ICE, it will be a short lived disruptor, reigning only until it is undercut by electric competition with half the running cost.

Even if first to deliver full autonomy is electric, they will still lose the race if they can’t produce that model en masse.

Tesla’s ability to convert a large portion of the existing fleet to full autonomy is like being able to teleport their runner from the starting blocks to the 50m mark, even after the race has started.

 

[KarenRei]

Well... nearly green. Close enough, given what it was fighting against. Onward and upward tomorrow

 

[JRP3]

So what does this have to do with SpaceX and Tesla?

Starlink (satellite constellation) - Wikipedia

Having an entire constellation of satellites could be very useful when an autonomous car needs just a wee bit of human assistance . . . which would make both Level 4+ and Level 5 autonomy doable so much faster than they would be otherwise.

Hasn't Elon said Starlink wouldn't work well for vehicles?

 

[KarenRei]

Hasn't Elon said Starlink wouldn't work well for vehicles?

At least passenger vehicles, yes.

 

[AlexS]

As now is the off topic time, take a look MKBHD testing Russian full autonomous tech. No one behind the wheel.

 

[Wnuk]

Not a bad day considering the overall markets.

 

[AWDtsla]

*****************************************

Even ARK missed the obvious here: The SpaceX and Tesla connection.

You don't have to Level 5 autonomy if Level 4+ is good enough, which it is nearly all the time.

Even GM shows how simple situations can flummox the most sophisticated systems:

Taco Truck Stumps GM/Cruise Self-Driving Car During San Francisco Media Demonstrations | CleanTechnica

So what does this have to do with SpaceX and Tesla?

Starlink (satellite constellation) - Wikipedia

Having an entire constellation of satellites could be very useful when an autonomous car needs just a wee bit of human assistance . . . which would make both Level 4+ and Level 5 autonomy doable so much faster than they would be otherwise.

No, and completely unnecessary. Cell network works just fine. Current design of the receivers makes it too big for auto, regardless. Not that even the initial assumption is correct, that real time network connectivity will help.

 

[AMN]

Everyone can relax...

I sold Feb 1 $350 and $355 Calls today. That ensures the stock will spiral upwards this week.

You can thank me later...

Too close for my comfort level - leaving a 20+% buffer. Sold a bunch of $370s, $375s and $377.50s because LOL.

 

[Curt Renz]

Not a bad day considering the overall markets.

Today's closing prices:

-2.26% F
-0.48% FCAU
-0.47% GM
-0.22% TSLA

 

[Fact Checking]

No, and completely unnecessary. Cell network works just fine. Current design of the receivers makes it too big for auto, regardless. Not that even the initial assumption is correct, that real time network connectivity will help.

Yes, but @TSLA Pilot does have a point: Tesla could install a Starlink based macrocell at every Supercharger, and could thus create a completely independent cellular service for Tesla vehicles.

 

[Vad42]

As now is the off topic time, take a look MKBHD testing Russian full autonomous tech. No one behind the wheel.

Knowing the way Russians do things, there's probably someone hidden in the frunk that's actually driving.

https://bigthink.com/technology-innovation/russian-robot-turns-out-to-be-man-in-a-suit

 

[AWDtsla]

Yes, but @TSLA Pilot does have a point: Tesla could install a Starlink based macrocell at every Supercharger, and could thus create a completely independent cellular service for Tesla vehicles.

LOL. unbounded fantasy. Now if you said they're going to build their own towers at appropriate points and relay to their own cell network, sure. But the rest of it just playing Mad Libs. If you haven't noticed, superchargers are very low to the ground.

 

[Buckminster]

The winner is not the first mass produced fully autonomous car. It is the first mass produced fully autonomous electric car.

Or the first manufacturer with millions of non-autonomous cars that can be upgraded to FSD OTA. Tesla could be years later than Waymo etc. but if they only make 100000 a year then Tesla will leapfrog. Not that I am expecting this pessimistic outcome...

 

[lklundin]

Agreed re: the low-key way that they announced the end of the 75Ds.

BTW, I think the penny-pinching we've seen relates to the March convertibles; Tesla needs to maximize FCF until then in order to stop the market from needlessly freaking out about them (and also doesn't want to show a really bad FCF in Q1 as a result of paying them off). After that, FCF is no longer such an important metric.

But by then, Tesla is going to have a ton of things fighting for its capital.

One place where Tesla is not penny-pinching is the CCS upgrade in Europe. According to the crowd sourced Google Doc that tracks the upgrade, the current completion ratio is now at close to 22%, with conversion now under way in a multitude of countries, so clearly a larger number of crews doing the work. I am unaware if Google Docs have built in versioning, but a few days ago it was about 10%.

PS. Sorry if this is redundant, still catching up...