Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Runarbt]

Got to disagree on that one. A lot of those model X were bought north of 100k. Tesla dropped the price, but no, those owners are not doing well with resale value. Great cars though. People buying ravens will be happy as they will probably only drop 10% in vaLue even after a year of use.

Early model 3 owners suffered as well, but 2019 owners will see good resale values in their future as the new price stabilizes.

Its amazing that those cars sell for 73k, when new better ones cost just north of 80k.

That owners paid 100k doesnt change this fact.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Hope this story blows up. Some leaked images and 8mins of videos of those monkeys, dogs and cats that VW are using to test their ”clean diesel”:
Monkeys scream out in pain in secret footage recorded at 'German lab' | Metro News

This is from the same company that makes a vegan car with leather manual...

Thanks for posting this. These are going to be my goto-images every time someone criticizes the behavior of Tesla or Elon. Absolutely sick.

 

[jeewee3000]

Hyundai, Kia earmark $760 million to settle U.S. lawsuits over engine fires

'The NHTSA this year opened a fresh investigation into 3 million Hyundai and Kia vehicles after reviewing reports of more than 3,000 fires that injured more than 100 people.'

Hey gang, let's all short Hyundai and Kia!

 

[Paracelsus]

I am becoming convinced that the 'Fall 2020' reference for the launch of Model Y is not actually a reference to the Fall season of the year. It is instead a reference to a disruption event of Biblical proportions............as in 'the FALL of ICE vehicle mfg's, 2020'...........(sarcasm)

It is starting to appear that Elon's 2020 time-frame for this Paradigm shift is Spot On........... with GM execs battling their own workers over the need to build EV's, with Ford/Rivian building a lonesome EV truck most likely by hand in what looks like an empty warehouse, and with the German automotive industry rapidly losing marketplace while dealing with the fallout of their self-inflicted emissions scandal, it really does seem that Elon's/Tesla's Crystal Ball for the year this shift is recorded in history could actually be quite accurate (2020). I need to re-read these Tesla Quarterly SEC filings more closely. They are like having 'tomorrow's paper today'. Quite insightful.

 

[Todd Burch]

There was an Elon tidbit last year where he disclosed that every Model 3 is precision measured via laser instruments to within 0.01 mm, hundreds of times along the assembly lines, which would be excellent instrumentation to drive the QA process.

I lead UI and UX design for the measurement software that controls these measurement instruments and does the geometric analysis. We are owned by a major manufacturer of measurement hardware including hardware in use by Tesla and other auto manufacturers. We also design integrated automated robot/scanner systems that recalibrate robot positional accuracy based off precision measurement data. One of our systems is a robot with a laser line scanner that performs automated gap and flush measurement and analysis on an assembly line.

Few points:

1. The crash test lab video Tesla released yesterday had a short ~2 second shot of a laser line scanner (handheld) measuring the airbag area of the steering wheel.

2. I won’t contradict the number you gave because I didn’t hear Elon’s original quote, but: the laser scanners of that type cannot get accuracies to 0.01mm. Real accuracy, when considering uncertainty in locating the instrument to the coordinate reference frame, is closer to 0.002” (0.05mm) for that type of instrument on a good day.

However, portable CMM arms which can physically probe the part (instead of a non-contact system like a laser scanner) can get advertised repeatability to around 0.01mm (~0.0004”), but real-world accuracy is going to be closer to twice that value on a good day. (This is for portable systems that are in-use by Tesla).

3. Errors such as those in panel gap and flush come from two sources: tolerance errors from the individual parts (panels, frame, hinges, etc), and errors resulting from the assembly and mating of those parts. Usually most errors are a result of the assembly of those parts (as Kruggerand mentioned) and not errors in the individual part tolerances...although this can vary from one situation to the next. Assembly is often tweaked to compensate for individual part errors to minimize total assembly errors.

4. It is possible to get higher accuracy with fixed CMM systems, but they are tabletop devices that are not feasible to use for an assembled vehicle.

Looking at random comments on social media about Tesla today, the most common non-TSLAQ criticism of Tesla and the one probably limiting orders the most (whether driven by FUD or due to true precision issues from the past) seems to be quality: panel gaps and interior quality.

Evidenced by Bob Lutz’s praise of the gaps on a more recent Model 3, Tesla has advanced by leaps and bounds in this area. Indeed, recent 3s I’ve sat in appear to be of equivalent quality/precision of other premium and luxury automakers.

Unfortunately, because of the acquired perception of quality issues, Tesla will probably have to work extra-hard compared to other manufacturers to correct this perception and eliminate this stain on Tesla’s brand image by the pessimistic public. It’s not fair, but reality at this point.

Fortunately they are the manufacturer I’d trust most to innovate in this area.

 

[Todd Burch]

In other news—man I am DYING to hear some low-7-minute Nürburgring times this week. That would be sweet and provide some nice assistance to the stock price this week.

 

[LN1_Casey]

In other news—man I am DYING to hear some low-7-minute Nürburgring times this week. That would be sweet and provide some nice assistance to the stock price this week.

Frankly, I'm surprised that Twitter hasn't popped up with the various sightings of the Tesla vehicles again, since there are year-round spotters there. Like, everyone was talking quite a bit about them last time, but apparently they have come back with at least one lap each, and yet nothing?

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

"According to Chinese media, a security guard at @tesla Gigafactory Shanghaiwho was interviewed said production will begin on Oct 20 according to workers inside Giga Shanghai

Also, phase one construction is basically completed, apart from some minor things and greening"​

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

So October 20 now

Many think there won't be official announcement until Fremont-made SR+ have all been delivered, which is understandable.
Announcement before that will cause some order cancellation.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Many think there won't be official announcement until Fremont-made SR+ have all been delivered, which is understandable.
Announcement before that will cause some order cancellation.

I don't think that'll be the case. GF3 will be producing vehicles well before the last shipment arrives. Tesla said they'd stop taking US made M3 orders on Oct 14, so give say a week to make the last order. Then another to pack the vehicles onto the shipping ship. Then for the shipping ship to ship over to China, another two or three weeks. Then to unload, and deliver; another week.

So, from Oct. 14 to Est. Nov. 25 delivery, which even by late estimations GF3 will have been producing for a bit by then.

There is a wait list for China M3, so the US M3 will be delivered before a China one, even with the shipping and whatever else. If someone placed their order in for a US M3, I don't think they'd cancel now just to join another line of people waiting for their car. They're spending the extra few thousand already to get it just that many weeks early, what's to them a few days?

 

[uselesslogin]

It's from the Q2 10-Q SEC filing:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

"Our next production vehicle, slated for launch by fall 2020, will be Model Y, a compact SUV built on the Model 3 platform."​

I understood "by fall" as "by August 31" (I.e. before fall) - but on a second thought if it's "by fall's end" then "by November 30"?

For example "by nightfall" means "before nightfall", and "by summertime" generally means before summertime. But "by Friday" typically is meant by the end of Friday - but "by next week" is typically "before next week".

Does "by fall" always include or exclude fall, or is it ambiguous?

Edit: plus as @mongo notes there's the ambiguity of "fall": meteorological fall (September 1), astronomical fall (September 23), financial fall quarter (ends September 31)?

For what it is worth in the US I believe we exclusively use astronomical fall. I have never heard anyone outside of the Internet use meteorological fall, not even students studying to be meteorologists or people who play one on TV. They could have easily meant the financial fall quarter but no US analyst would expect it to mean by September 1st.

 

[Fact Checking]

2. I won’t contradict the number you gave because I didn’t hear Elon’s original quote, but: the laser scanners of that type cannot get accuracies to 0.01mm. Real accuracy, when considering uncertainty in locating the instrument to the coordinate reference frame, is closer to 0.002” (0.05mm) for that type of instrument on a good day.

However, portable CMM arms which can physically probe the part (instead of a non-contact system like a laser scanner) can get advertised repeatability to around 0.01mm (~0.0004”), but real-world accuracy is going to be closer to twice that value on a good day. (This is for portable systems that are in-use by Tesla).

I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Ooh, she FAST AF...

"Red and Blue Plaid prototypes return to hot laps at the Nürburgring"

Cheers!

EDIT: Read more about the 2nd round of Plaid test drives at the video maker's website:

Tesla Model S Plaid prototypes sporting new modifications return to 'Ring

 

[Artful Dodger]

Frankly, I'm surprised that Twitter hasn't popped up with the various sightings of the Tesla vehicles again, since there are year-round spotters there. Like, everyone was talking quite a bit about them last time, but apparently they have come back with at least one lap each, and yet nothing?

Nah you don't want some fuzzy tweet silly slideshow, you want MOVING pictures (see VID above)...

Cheers!

 

[jerry33]

How many Tesla owners would have bought their cars without the SC network?

When we purchased our S 6 2/3 years ago, the only SCs were in California (all three of them IIRC). We still went on road trips. It was over two years before SCs were around and it was only this year that I-10 was completed. However, the question now is do you purchase a Tesla with a reasonable, but not fully developed SC network, or something else with limited choices and often anti-EV dealers?

 

[Artful Dodger]

I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well.

Yes I remember that issue as well. As I recall, the problem was diagnosed as steel sheets not being accurately positioned and held in place during the stamping operation. An engineering fix was applied to more accurately stamp the sheets. IIRC that fix was applied about 5 quarters ago, so HTH ur search.

You may also wish to ask our resident Press expert @Krugerrand (she's a cool cat).

Cheers!

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

I don't think that'll be the case. GF3 will be producing vehicles well before the last shipment arrives. Tesla said they'd stop taking US made M3 orders on Oct 14, so give say a week to make the last order. Then another to pack the vehicles onto the shipping ship. Then for the shipping ship to ship over to China, another two or three weeks. Then to unload, and deliver; another week.

So, from Oct. 14 to Est. Nov. 25 delivery, which even by late estimations GF3 will have been producing for a bit by then.

There is a wait list for China M3, so the US M3 will be delivered before a China one, even with the shipping and whatever else. If someone placed their order in for a US M3, I don't think they'd cancel now just to join another line of people waiting for their car. They're spending the extra few thousand already to get it just that many weeks early, what's to them a few days?

The other concern is that the 328,000 RMB price for made in China SR+ might be adjusted downward.
Personally I'm 70% sure about the potential price drop, but I think at least Autopilot will surely be included in that 328,000.

Any price change (drop of course) will cause dissatisfaction among many previous buyers.
So I think Tesla is in a little predicament here.

 

[loco]

Nah you don't want some fuzzy tweet silly slideshow, you want MOVING pictures (see VID above)...

Cheers!

Look at that body kit! Rear diffuser and holes behind front wheels. What are they called and what's their purpose please?

Edit: they're called fender vents and purpose is to relief pressure in the wheel arch that would cause lift.

 

[jerry33]

Any price change (drop of course) will cause dissatisfaction among many previous buyers.
So I think Tesla is in a little predicament here.

You have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that buying a Tesla is akin to purchasing a computer. Newer models will always be faster, better, cheaper and existing models will go down in price. There is always a premium attached to being "first on your block". In most cases the pleasure obtained from usage outweighs the extra money spent.

 

[jeewee3000]

You have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that buying a Tesla is akin to purchasing a computer. Newer models will always be faster, better, cheaper and existing models will go down in price. There is always a premium attached to being "first on your block". In most cases the pleasure obtained from usage outweighs the extra money spent.

The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)

 

[jerry33]

The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)

True, but ICE vehicles mostly change on an annual basis rather than a weekly one.