Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mongo]

I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.

You may be thinking of the patent from last November regarding adjustabke panel clamps:
Tesla patent addresses panel gaps using clever clamping assembly

There was also the internal e-mail

Most of the design tolerances of the Model 3 are already better than any other car in the world. Soon, they will all be better. This is not enough. We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world. I am not kidding.

Our car needs to be designed and built with such accuracy and precision that, if an owner measures dimensions, panel gaps, and flushness, and their measurements don't match the Model 3 specs, it just means that their measuring tape is wrong.

Elon Musk Just Sent an Extraordinary Email to Tesla Employees

 

[mongo]

The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)

Yah, but on the plus side, like a computer, your Tesla gets new software as time goes on.
Original single gane pong console, vs latest Sony/ MSFT system or high end laptop that can run AAA titles for years.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Feels weird to be actively looking forward to the market opening each day

 

[Artful Dodger]

"One year\Tesla gigafactory 3 in shanghai" in 4K | Wu Wa

 

[Todd Burch]

I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.

It's certainly likely that they did have issues with dies/stamping accuracy. If they didn't properly account for springback in the stamping process, it could lead to individual parts with fairly large tolerance errors.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Talking about panel gaps: it's a pity that they didn't adjust the frunk cover of the blue Plaid prototype when they brought it back to the Nürburgring. The red one shows how tight the gap can be. I know, it's not really important (alhough it might reduce drag a bit), but when you know pictures of these cars are going to be all over the internet...

(Copyright cutouts Factchecking)

 

[Silent Ludicrosy]

Plaid summer 2020 Elon Musk on Twitter

 

[KarenRei]

Don't know if it has been posted before but retail investors can ask and upvote questions for Q&A next week

Say

Bracing myself for how terrible they're going to be :Þ The usual mix of "inane" and "FUD"?

Don't know about Model 3 production in GF3, but it seems logical to work in there if the challenge is simply the production line, not the car design. Based on that quote, I assume you are right and GF3 Model 3 will use the new wiring system.

I can't imagine that they'll make two entirely separate wiring systems for them. What's the point of sharing the same platform if you're going to do the wiring different? The whole point is economies of scale, and that all vehicles benefit from their tech advancements.

Maybe the Model Y line might be the first to get the robots to bend rigid wiring elements or something, but it'd obviously go to the Model 3 lines as soon as they were able to if it worked out well.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes I remember that issue as well. As I recall, the problem was diagnosed as steel sheets not being accurately positioned and held in place during the stamping operation. An engineering fix was applied to more accurately stamp the sheets. IIRC that fix was applied about 5 quarters ago, so HTH ur search.

You may also wish to ask our resident Press expert @Krugerrand (he's a cool cat).

Cheers!

I don’t recall that, but what you’re describing sounds like an end of arm tooling issue (holding) and press line/sensor programing issue (placement).

Both can be tricky and complicated to get just right. There have been a couple of short videos showing just how intricate and close the timing has to be when blanks/parts are being moved from one operation to the next within the press lines.

Both those have nothing to do with the die sets themselves (what FC was eluding to), but rather are set-up issues that would be resolved during the initial trialing of the dies - unless something breaks/gets damaged/glitches later on, which of course would be caught quickly by various possible indicators. Being off just a little bit can cause issues as severe as smashing dies.

I’d need to read what Elon said to determine if he was talking dies, die setup, press programming, end of arm tooling, blank dimension issues etc...

 

[Krugerrand]

It's certainly likely that they did have issues with dies/stamping accuracy. If they didn't properly account for springback in the stamping process, it could lead to individual parts with fairly large tolerance errors.

But that’s not a die issue, that’s a ‘somebody messed up when giving die vendor part tolerances’. Could have been bad data entered into initial simulation for example.

Normal springback would be accounted for during the die making process, otherwise the vendor could never produce a satisfactory part before buyoff.

There are other processes that happen after a part is produced which can create a springback issue like hemming, painting, change of material (either from a different company or even just a different batch) or attaching two parts of different strength.

 

[JRP3]

The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)

Not the same at all, ICE vehicles have pre announced model year changes, and they don't get software updates to keep them current.

 

[Todd Burch]

But that’s not a die issue, that’s a ‘somebody messed up when giving die vendor part tolerances’. Could have been bad data entered into initial simulation for example.

Normal springback would be accounted for during the die making process, otherwise the vendor could never produce a satisfactory part before buyoff.

Yes--or springback wasn't properly accounted for during the die making process. It's possible either way. Doesn't matter though...it's speculation anyway.

 

[jerry33]

Not the same at all, ICE vehicles have pre announced model year changes, and they don't get software updates to keep them current.

A few do get software updates, but it's a painful process so most people never have it done. (Similar to Android vs. iPhone).

 

[brantse]

Does Elon's tweet confirm that they have broken the Nurburgring record? I know the focus is on the date of plaid production, but isn't he speaking in past tense regarding the record.

 

[Fact Checking]

I believe early Model 3 panel gap problems were due to sub-par, imprecise panel stamping (this too was disclosed by Elon in one of the interviews) - they had a new press line for the Model 3. I don't expect this to happen with Model Y panels.

Yes I remember that issue as well. As I recall, the problem was diagnosed as steel sheets not being accurately positioned and held in place during the stamping operation. An engineering fix was applied to more accurately stamp the sheets. IIRC that fix was applied about 5 quarters ago, so HTH ur search.

You may also wish to ask our resident Press expert @Krugerrand (he's a cool cat).

Cheers!

I don’t recall that, but what you’re describing sounds like an end of arm tooling issue (holding) and press line/sensor programing issue (placement).

Both can be tricky and complicated to get just right. There have been a couple of short videos showing just how intricate and close the timing has to be when blanks/parts are being moved from one operation to the next within the press lines.

Both those have nothing to do with the die sets themselves (what FC was eluding to),

I didn't even use the words "die sets", but said "imprecise panel stamping" originally, which is pretty close to what @Artful Dodger described as well...

Inconsistent panel gaps are mostly going to be the result of assembly errors, underlying structure errors, mistakes made in original design calculations, distortions created by the assembly process and the like. Even the painting process can cause distortions.

Except that the problem @Artful Dodger confirmed was with the new stamp lines, not with original design calculations, assembly process or painting: "the problem was diagnosed as steel sheets not being accurately positioned and held in place during the stamping operation".

I maintain that I don't expect these imprecise panel stamping problems to happen with the Model Y.

 

[T@oo]

Does Elon's tweet confirm that they have broken the Nurburgring record? I know the focus is on the date of plaid production, but isn't he speaking in past tense regarding the record.

Futur II?

 

[Artful Dodger]

So It's about batteries and FSD... When's that competetion coming?

 

[Fact Checking]

Does Elon's tweet confirm that they have broken the Nurburgring record? I know the focus is on the date of plaid production, but isn't he speaking in past tense regarding the record.

I don't think the "used" is chronological past tense:

Twitter

"The final configuration used at Nürburgring to set the record will go into production around summer 2020, so this is not merely for the track"​

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Per Bloomberg(not linking)..... not only is TSLA going bankrupt, but ELON IS ALSO BANKRUPT!

AIG Faces Potential Claim in Elon Musk Defamation Case, Filing Shows

Insurance giant American International Group Inc. may get wrapped up in a defamation case involving billionaire Elon Musk, who has told lawyers representing the British cave diver suing him that he’s financially illiquid, according to a legal filing.

 

[JusRelax]

Does Elon's tweet confirm that they have broken the Nurburgring record? I know the focus is on the date of plaid production, but isn't he speaking in past tense regarding the record.

I don't think so. I think that, because of the testing that they've done, in Elon's mind it's just a foregone conclusion that they will beat the Nurburgring record.