Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[T@oo]

So It's about batteries and FSD... When's that competetion coming?

Nice. But the film original had a california number plate.

 

[Driver Dave]

Apple Memo 1980

"EFFECTIVE IMMEDIATELY!! NO MORE TYPEWRITERS ARE TO BE PURCHASED, LEASED, etc., etc. Apple is an innovative company. We must believe and lead in all areas. If word processing is so neat, then let's all use it! Goal: by 1-1-81, NO typewriters at Apple... We believe the typewriter is obsolete. Let's prove it inside before we try and convince our customers."

Hard to believe that there was a time not so long ago where people had to be convinced to leave typewriters for computers.

2020. Replace "typewriters" with "gas cars".

It's coming...

Back in the 80s, Apple, Microsoft, IBM and others saw it.

But now, I'm pretty sure TSLA is the only company that really gets what's about to happen.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think so. I think that, because of the testing that they've done, in Elon's mind it's just a foregone conclusion that they will beat the Nurburgring record.

Also, isn't their 7:23 lap time from September already a "production EV" record, assuming it gets repeated and ratified by track officials?

 

[EVMeister]

Per Bloomberg(not linking)..... not only is TSLA going bankrupt, but ELON IS ALSO BANKRUPT!

Hahaha... Elon, bankrupt? He's actually digustingly rich with a net worth most mere mortals can't begin to comprehend.

 

[KarenRei]

LOL! TSLAQ isn't the brightest bunch, now are they?

I Spotted a Model 3 on Twitter

 

[bhtooefr]

It's not a record because it wasn't done under record conditions, as I understand.

...but then neither was the Taycan's 7:42.

 

[Toumal]

Current FUD stories: Battery storage growth is "limited", China is an "uphill battle" for Tesla, and of course Tesla is running out of cash.

No links needed really.

 

[MP3Mike]

Also, isn't their 7:23 lap time from September already a "production EV" record, assuming it gets repeated and ratified by track officials?

No because they weren't production cars. It would be a prototype EV record. I don't think they will be able to set the "production" record until next summer when they start making production Model S Plaid cars.

 

[T@oo]

Knocking on 260 again.

 

[Fact Checking]

No because they weren't production cars. It would be a prototype EV record. I don't think they will be able to set the "production" record until next summer when they start making production Model S Plaid cars.

I suspect they could post an onboard video of the record lap, like Porsche did - and like Tesla did for Laguna Seca.

 

[woodisgood]

Wonder if/when the market will react to the Model Y "news"...at least seeing test vehicles on the road is a big step forward. But it will probably be spun into "Y will eat into 3 demand, they're just replacing 3 orders with Y orders blah blah..."

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Hard to believe that there was a time not so long ago where people had to be convinced to leave typewriters for computers.

2020. Replace "typewriters" with "gas cars".

It's coming...

Back in the 80s, Apple, Microsoft, IBM and others saw it.

But now, I'm pretty sure TSLA is the only company that really gets what's about to happen.

Usually it's gas stations where I think about how crazy this will seem when we look back in ten years. This morning I was walking around Philly listening to all the cold ICE engines struggling to get down the street as they warm up. Laughable.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Nice. But the film original had a california number plate.

Yeah, that's not a license plate, that's a HBDAR antenna...

 

[StealthP3D]

"According to Chinese media, a security guard at @tesla Gigafactory Shanghaiwho was interviewed said production will begin on Oct 20 according to workers inside Giga Shanghai

Also, phase one construction is basically completed, apart from some minor things and greening"​

​

That is incredible! I'm not sure most people understand the significance of this in terms of how big the factory is and how quickly it turned from a muddy field to a modern, state-of-the-art factory! Granted, much of this was due to the building efficiency honed by the Chinese but in terms of the efficient use of Tesla's capital, this will have a huge effect down the road on the size of Tesla's success. Looking forward to a relatively quick ramp in production. I can't help but think Tesla management is tuned into this goal to further accelerate their growth. There is a multiplier effect in play here if they can ramp quickly.

Many think there won't be official announcement until Fremont-made SR+ have all been delivered, which is understandable.
Announcement before that will cause some order cancellation.

You don't think all the Freemont made SR+ in China have been delivered yet? What are you basing that on? Just curious.

 

[Fact Checking]

You don't think all the Freemont made SR+ in China have been delivered yet? What are you basing that on? Just curious.

The deadline for Fremont SR+ orders was October 14 - which orders Tesla will match precisely with about 5-10 days of production, after which it's probably ~30 days to ship them to Chinese customers.

I don't think order cancelation is a problem, aren't Chinese customers required to deposit the full price before it's shipped from the U.S.? This would suggest that custom Model 3 orders can not be canceled once a VIN has assigned, like for S/X orders. Is there anything about return policy on the Chinese order page?

 

[jeewee3000]

Not the same at all, ICE vehicles have pre announced model year changes, and they don't get software updates to keep them current.

Tesla also pre announces their changes, just on a more flimsy schedule.

Either way the schedule of the changes is not the point. In both cases you will get a better product for the same money if you delay your purchase.

 

[T@oo]

The deadline for Fremont SR+ orders was October 14 - which orders Tesla will match precisely with about 5-10 days of production, after which it's probably ~30 days to get them to Chinese customers.

I don't think order cancelation is a problem, aren't Chinese customers required to deposit the full price before it's shipped from the U.S.? This would suggest that custom Model 3 orders can not be canceled once a VIN has assigned, like for S/X orders. Is there anything about return policy on the Chinese order page?

My understanding (read: so I've been told) is, that Chinese even pay premium for cars NOT build in China but in Germany or US. Even if it's the same model from same brand.

 

[StealthP3D]

Hahaha... Elon, bankrupt? He's actually digustingly rich with a net worth most mere mortals can't begin to comprehend.

That's an odd use of the phrase "disgustingly rich". I generally reserve that term for people who made their wealth in a passive way like inheritance or (far worse) royalties from oil or coal, etc. In short, having wealth handed to you, often at other's expense. But innovation and moving society forward is far from disgusting.

 

[Krugerrand]

Yes--or springback wasn't properly accounted for during the die making process. It's possible either way. Doesn't matter though...it's speculation anyway.

If that happened, that’s on the vendor to fix BEFORE customer buys it. And that’s a crappy vendor. As I said, the vendor has to show stamped parts within customer criteria and tolerances before customer is even going to start the purchasing process. I can’t see Tesla buying dies sets if substandard quality that don’t meet their specifications. But I suppose stranger things have happened.

 

[StealthP3D]

Wonder if/when the market will react to the Model Y "news"...at least seeing test vehicles on the road is a big step forward. But it will probably be spun into "Y will eat into 3 demand, they're just replacing 3 orders with Y orders blah blah..."

That might be hard spin to make stick if it's clear that Model Y sales are higher-margin sales!

I think all investors would be wise to focus on the two points recommended by Musk himself:

1) Battery production
2) AutoPilot advances

It's actually better for profitability to sell more Y than 3 so I hope Model Y sales eat into Model 3 demand so hard they have to convert most Model 3 production lines into Model Y production lines. On the other hand, I think the Model 3 is such an elegant automobile I kind of hope it does better than expected relative to Model Y.