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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Supporting Member
Mar 6, 2019
2,059
10,305
Oahu, Hawaii
In other news—man I am DYING to hear some low-7-minute Nürburgring times this week. That would be sweet and provide some nice assistance to the stock price this week.

Frankly, I'm surprised that Twitter hasn't popped up with the various sightings of the Tesla vehicles again, since there are year-round spotters there. Like, everyone was talking quite a bit about them last time, but apparently they have come back with at least one lap each, and yet nothing?
 
Jan 18, 2019
417
4,750
Mars Gigafactory 1
"According to Chinese media, a security guard at @tesla Gigafactory Shanghaiwho was interviewed said production will begin on Oct 20 according to workers inside Giga Shanghai

Also, phase one construction is basically completed, apart from some minor things and greening"​

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

So October 20 now:rolleyes:

Many think there won't be official announcement until Fremont-made SR+ have all been delivered, which is understandable.
Announcement before that will cause some order cancellation.
 

LN1_Casey

Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
Supporting Member
Mar 6, 2019
2,059
10,305
Oahu, Hawaii
Many think there won't be official announcement until Fremont-made SR+ have all been delivered, which is understandable.
Announcement before that will cause some order cancellation.

I don't think that'll be the case. GF3 will be producing vehicles well before the last shipment arrives. Tesla said they'd stop taking US made M3 orders on Oct 14, so give say a week to make the last order. Then another to pack the vehicles onto the shipping ship. Then for the shipping ship to ship over to China, another two or three weeks. Then to unload, and deliver; another week.

So, from Oct. 14 to Est. Nov. 25 delivery, which even by late estimations GF3 will have been producing for a bit by then.

There is a wait list for China M3, so the US M3 will be delivered before a China one, even with the shipping and whatever else. If someone placed their order in for a US M3, I don't think they'd cancel now just to join another line of people waiting for their car. They're spending the extra few thousand already to get it just that many weeks early, what's to them a few days?
 

uselesslogin

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Jun 13, 2013
1,830
3,798
Omaha, NE
It's from the Q2 10-Q SEC filing:

SEC Filing | Tesla, Inc.

"Our next production vehicle, slated for launch by fall 2020, will be Model Y, a compact SUV built on the Model 3 platform."​

I understood "by fall" as "by August 31" (I.e. before fall) - but on a second thought if it's "by fall's end" then "by November 30"?

For example "by nightfall" means "before nightfall", and "by summertime" generally means before summertime. But "by Friday" typically is meant by the end of Friday - but "by next week" is typically "before next week".

Does "by fall" always include or exclude fall, or is it ambiguous?

Edit: plus as @mongo notes there's the ambiguity of "fall": meteorological fall (September 1), astronomical fall (September 23), financial fall quarter (ends September 31)?
For what it is worth in the US I believe we exclusively use astronomical fall. I have never heard anyone outside of the Internet use meteorological fall, not even students studying to be meteorologists or people who play one on TV. They could have easily meant the financial fall quarter but no US analyst would expect it to mean by September 1st.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,763
Vienna
2. I won’t contradict the number you gave because I didn’t hear Elon’s original quote, but: the laser scanners of that type cannot get accuracies to 0.01mm. Real accuracy, when considering uncertainty in locating the instrument to the coordinate reference frame, is closer to 0.002” (0.05mm) for that type of instrument on a good day.

However, portable CMM arms which can physically probe the part (instead of a non-contact system like a laser scanner) can get advertised repeatability to around 0.01mm (~0.0004”), but real-world accuracy is going to be closer to twice that value on a good day. (This is for portable systems that are in-use by Tesla).

I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. :confused: Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,044
133,308
Canada
Frankly, I'm surprised that Twitter hasn't popped up with the various sightings of the Tesla vehicles again, since there are year-round spotters there. Like, everyone was talking quite a bit about them last time, but apparently they have come back with at least one lap each, and yet nothing?
Nah you don't want some fuzzy tweet silly slideshow, you want MOVING pictures (see VID above)... ;)


Cheers!
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
20,001
24,684
Texas
How many Tesla owners would have bought their cars without the SC network?
When we purchased our S 6 2/3 years ago, the only SCs were in California (all three of them IIRC). We still went on road trips. It was over two years before SCs were around and it was only this year that I-10 was completed. However, the question now is do you purchase a Tesla with a reasonable, but not fully developed SC network, or something else with limited choices and often anti-EV dealers?
 

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
10,044
133,308
Canada
I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well.
Yes I remember that issue as well. As I recall, the problem was diagnosed as steel sheets not being accurately positioned and held in place during the stamping operation. An engineering fix was applied to more accurately stamp the sheets. IIRC that fix was applied about 5 quarters ago, so HTH ur search.

You may also wish to ask our resident Press expert @Krugerrand (she's a cool cat). :cool:

Cheers!
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Jan 18, 2019
417
4,750
Mars Gigafactory 1
I don't think that'll be the case. GF3 will be producing vehicles well before the last shipment arrives. Tesla said they'd stop taking US made M3 orders on Oct 14, so give say a week to make the last order. Then another to pack the vehicles onto the shipping ship. Then for the shipping ship to ship over to China, another two or three weeks. Then to unload, and deliver; another week.

So, from Oct. 14 to Est. Nov. 25 delivery, which even by late estimations GF3 will have been producing for a bit by then.

There is a wait list for China M3, so the US M3 will be delivered before a China one, even with the shipping and whatever else. If someone placed their order in for a US M3, I don't think they'd cancel now just to join another line of people waiting for their car. They're spending the extra few thousand already to get it just that many weeks early, what's to them a few days?

The other concern is that the 328,000 RMB price for made in China SR+ might be adjusted downward.
Personally I'm 70% sure about the potential price drop, but I think at least Autopilot will surely be included in that 328,000.

Any price change (drop of course) will cause dissatisfaction among many previous buyers.
So I think Tesla is in a little predicament here.
 
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loco

Member
Feb 21, 2013
185
458
Poznan, Poland
Nah you don't want some fuzzy tweet silly slideshow, you want MOVING pictures (see VID above)... ;)


Cheers!
Look at that body kit! Rear diffuser and holes behind front wheels. What are they called and what's their purpose please?

Edit: they're called fender vents and purpose is to relief pressure in the wheel arch that would cause lift.
 
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jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
20,001
24,684
Texas
Any price change (drop of course) will cause dissatisfaction among many previous buyers.
So I think Tesla is in a little predicament here.
You have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that buying a Tesla is akin to purchasing a computer. Newer models will always be faster, better, cheaper and existing models will go down in price. There is always a premium attached to being "first on your block". In most cases the pleasure obtained from usage outweighs the extra money spent.
 

jeewee3000

Active Member
Sep 1, 2015
1,203
6,705
Belgium
You have to be a pretty dumb bunny to not realize that buying a Tesla is akin to purchasing a computer. Newer models will always be faster, better, cheaper and existing models will go down in price. There is always a premium attached to being "first on your block". In most cases the pleasure obtained from usage outweighs the extra money spent.
The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)
 

jerry33

(S85-3/2/13 traded in) X LR: F2611##-3/27/20
Supporting Member
Mar 8, 2012
20,001
24,684
Texas
The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)
True, but ICE vehicles mostly change on an annual basis rather than a weekly one.
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,449
41,950
Michigan
I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. :confused: Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.

You may be thinking of the patent from last November regarding adjustabke panel clamps:
Tesla patent addresses panel gaps using clever clamping assembly

There was also the internal e-mail
Most of the design tolerances of the Model 3 are already better than any other car in the world. Soon, they will all be better. This is not enough. We will keep going until the Model 3 build precision is a factor of ten better than any other car in the world. I am not kidding.

Our car needs to be designed and built with such accuracy and precision that, if an owner measures dimensions, panel gaps, and flushness, and their measurements don't match the Model 3 specs, it just means that their measuring tape is wrong.
Elon Musk Just Sent an Extraordinary Email to Tesla Employees
 

mongo

Well-Known Member
May 3, 2017
13,449
41,950
Michigan
The same is true for ICE vehicles, so I don't see this as a competitive disadvantage. (Newer models have more advanced features and better engine efficiency at a premium. Buy that same model when there is an even newer model out and you get a nice discount)
Yah, but on the plus side, like a computer, your Tesla gets new software as time goes on.
Original single gane pong console, vs latest Sony/ MSFT system or high end laptop that can run AAA titles for years.
 

Todd Burch

Voltage makes me tingle.
Nov 3, 2009
8,185
33,315
Smithfield, VA
I tried to find the link but failed - but it's entirely possible that I mis-remembered a 0.1 mm claim as 0.01 mm.

Embarrassingly enough I also tried to find the quote where Elon said that they had problems with the early Model 3 dies or stamping accuracy, but failed with that as well. :confused: Only found a leaked email from Elon where he said that the spread of the Model 3 panel gaps is already better than that of the German competition.

Anyway, thanks for your description of panel alignment measurements - your description should override all the prior guesses I made about the topic.

It's certainly likely that they did have issues with dies/stamping accuracy. If they didn't properly account for springback in the stamping process, it could lead to individual parts with fairly large tolerance errors.
 

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