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Wiki Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

bhtooefr

Active Member
Apr 16, 2018
1,156
6,633
Newark, OH, USA

S3XY

Supporting Member
Supporting Member
Nov 24, 2015
2,115
7,038
Buffalo, NY
Bracing myself for how terrible they're going to be :Þ The usual mix of "inane" and "FUD"?



I can't imagine that they'll make two entirely separate wiring systems for them. What's the point of sharing the same platform if you're going to do the wiring different? The whole point is economies of scale, and that all vehicles benefit from their tech advancements.

Maybe the Model Y line might be the first to get the robots to bend rigid wiring elements or something, but it'd obviously go to the Model 3 lines as soon as they were able to if it worked out well.
I agree. The Q1 production start of the MY would also add credence to this line of thinking. What better time to switch over M3 to the new wiring than during a period of lower demand/production?
 

SpaceCash

Intergalactic Planetary, Planetary Intergalactic
Jul 5, 2017
1,673
12,969
Earth
I agree. The Q1 production start of the MY would also add credence to this line of thinking. What better time to switch over M3 to the new wiring than during a period of lower demand/production?
I coulda sworn I remember Elon saying the M3 would eventually get the MY's next-gen wiring harness

I expect it, eventually
 

SpaceCash

Intergalactic Planetary, Planetary Intergalactic
Jul 5, 2017
1,673
12,969
Earth
I'm just gonna go ahead and go out on a limb and voice the superbull opinion

This could be when TSLA finds a new level substantially higher, and doesn't return.
Shorty Air Force is extremely butthurt on Stocktwits, Twitter, Reddit (where they have TONS of goons pretending to be bulls trying to manipulate the narrative), and very overtly beginning to question the ridiculous $0, doom, bankwupcy fantasy. Many, many of them are starting their comments with "I'm bullish but...", meaning that they know damn well an overall negative train of thought is outright foolish and preposterous at this point.

They are losing control of their story and their supporters. GM has not been producing cars for weeks because their people are on strike. It's over for ICE.

I'm not gonna say it's squeeze time because we've heard that a million times over the last 5 years.

But it could be squeeze time.
 

Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,565
13,270
NSW, Australia
1744B78B-EF03-429A-81F3-693A0F78BB55.png

Wow. Lol. Bugger the sun. Tesla is now so powerful they are an actual energy source. Why even bother putting the panels on the roof? Just stick ‘em in the basement. :confused:
 

Unpilot

Sell order in at $5999.99
Supporting Member
Dec 2, 2017
5,205
42,126
A Coast
I'm just gonna go ahead and go out on a limb and voice the superbull opinion

This could be when TSLA finds a new level substantially higher, and doesn't return.
Shorty Air Force is extremely butthurt on Stocktwits, Twitter, Reddit (where they have TONS of goons pretending to be bulls trying to manipulate the narrative), and very overtly beginning to question the ridiculous $0, doom, bankwupcy fantasy. Many, many of them are starting their comments with "I'm bullish but...", meaning that they know damn well an overall negative train of thought is outright foolish and preposterous at this point.

They are losing control of their story and their supporters. GM has not been producing cars for weeks because their people are on strike. It's over for ICE.

I'm not gonna say it's squeeze time because we've heard that a million times over the last 5 years.

But it could be squeeze time.
Been thinking the same thing.

Not a squeeze but a nice slow steady climb.
 

Fact Checking

Well-Known Member
Aug 3, 2018
7,517
120,763
Vienna
Oh, I would prefer the share price jumps after earnings (vs. before) as well. Who knows, we might get both. They are not mutually exclusive.

But it sounds like you believe chatter and speculation here has a significant impact on share price. I disagree. The dynamics surrounding Teslas share price are so big, it's going to take a lot more than a little TMC speculation on when Model Y ramps to change share price dynamics. Because speculation is just speculation. The market is much bigger than that.

Agreed, plus there's also the fact that Tesla, willingly or unwillingly, sent unmistakable signals that they are progressing with the Model Y, which need no TMC magnification:
  • they've been testing a non-camoflaged black Model Y for weeks,
  • they paraded 3 fully manufactured red Model Y's on a trailer on public roads in broad daylight,
  • they released the "Crash Test Lab" video with a Model Y mule in it, with an early September timestamp,
  • they were recently testing a Midnight Silver Model Y as well.
Despite prominent presence of those snippets of information on social media, retail investors on Robinhood seem to have been deleveraging their Tesla positions for the last couple of weeks, including yesterday:

upload_2019-10-17_7-16-17.png

Number of users holding went down from a peak of 170k in June, to ~145k yesterday, a drop of 15%.

Note that Robinhood # users holding is still very strong, still 45% higher than the ~100k users holding while the price was $300+ levels early this year:

upload_2019-10-17_7-18-23.png

But there's been some deleveraging and taking profits, which is prudent to TMC readers, as expectations are of not particularly nice Q3 earnings:
  • GAAP losses of -$200m,
  • revenue of $6.2b - which is lower both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year,
  • probably lower FCF than in Q2, in part due to Model Y and GF3 spending,
Also, FactSet expectations seem to be too high, almost guaranteeing "Tesla missed expectations" headlines.

So if these are the Q3 numbers then the "Tesla growth story is over!!" FUD will flood the media again, any Model Y advances will be ignored and it will be a perfect time for a bear attack as well.

Sentiment here on TMC is positive - but that's to be expected after a +40% run-up in ~3 months after a brutal -50% drop to 3-year lows in 5 months. TMC sentiment was even better at $350 levels in January. :D

The Model Y news could be anything, even if we accept the leaks as accurate:
  • Q1 2020 could mean the beginning of early trial production, with a trickle of a dozen of Model Y's per week perhaps. Delays are entirely possible there - the self-imposed guidance by Tesla is to "launch" the Model Y "by the fall of 2020" - with no clear guidance on when the ramp-up to mass production will happen. @Krugerrand has been warning us against too high expectations regarding Model Y ramp-up.
  • Excess GF1 output will probably be directed towards China primarily, where the GF3 battery shop won't be completed until March 2020.
  • "I think Q1 next year will be tough.", according to Elon, and "Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough". He said this 2 months ago on July 24, and he fully knew their own GF3 and Model Y plans and progress.
Anyway, whoever is driving up the price right now, it might be institutionals slowly testing the waters again (but then again ARK reduced their stake somewhat), but my guess is that it's possibly mostly shorts covering: Q3'2018 must still be a vivid memory, and a +40% run-up must be straining on margins.

Absolutely not advice, as always.
 
Last edited:

Carl Raymond

Active Member
Oct 18, 2018
1,565
13,270
NSW, Australia
Number of users holding went down from a peak of 170k in June, to ~145k yesterday, a drop of 15%.

Note that Robinhood # users holding is still very strong, still 45% higher than the ~100k users holding while the price was $300+ levels early this year:

My 2 cents... They are young. A quick dollar is too tempting. But their holdings are small, their influence over the main game minimal.

upload_2019-10-17_7-16-17.png
 

SOULPEDL

Active Member
Jul 25, 2016
3,498
14,298
Arizona
Nice post Fact Checking, thought I was reading Papafox ;)

The other caution area is the annual goal of 350k-400k being a struggle, maybe a miss.
I am fine with 340k, it's about all the curved growth that matters. So I plan on these dips with small bets. Keeps it fun.
 
Jan 18, 2019
417
4,750
Mars Gigafactory 1
In the U.S., Model 3 delivery time has been updated: P3D 8-10 weeks; SR+ and AWD 6-10 weeks. S/X 4-8 weeks.

Price increase also confirmed?

T☰SLA Mania on Twitter

"No Demand for@Tesla???

Model 3 SR+ price has been increased by $500 Model 3 Performance increased by $1,000, comes with "20’’ Gray Performance Wheels"

Delivery time for SR+ & AWD has gone from 2-3 weeks to 6-10 weeks, and from 2-3 weeks to 8-10 weeks for Model 3 Performance"​
 

StealthP3D

Well-Known Member
Dec 12, 2018
10,008
82,994
Maple Falls, WA
Number of users holding went down from a peak of 170k in June, to ~145k yesterday, a drop of 15%.

Note that Robinhood # users holding is still very strong, still 45% higher than the ~100k users holding while the price was $300+ levels early this year:

My nephew works at an established tech company in Seattle and almost all the 20-30-something year old guys in his department have Robinhood accounts and trade regularly, mostly on a whim. They don't have big accounts, it's mostly entertainment for them. I don't take the Robinhood stats as meaningful in the grand scheme of things.

  • "I think Q1 next year will be tough.", according to Elon, and "Q2 will be not as bad, but still tough". He said this 2 months ago on July 24, and he fully knew their own Model Y plans and progress.
When Musk said that, I remember thinking there was something funny about it, almost like he was trying to convince us of something he didn't (fully) believe. My interpretation, now that I've had time to think about it and have more clues, is that their strategy has moved some of the expenses into Q4 2019 (and maybe Q3). So the bottom line might not look that good, especially in Q4 (well at least relative to the strong production and sales) but the market won't care as much because growth and expansion will have been accelerated. If Model Y starts selling in Q2 2020, high margin variants will bolster the Q2 numbers. I don't see any way Q1 bottom line won't be weak but I think it's a false narrative that as the numbers go, so goes the stock price. The market looks beyond the numbers and now that Tesla is not so much on the brink of disaster, the numbers will take a back seat to internal developments. The market has only focussed on the numbers so heavily because the shorts were in control of the (mostly false) narrative. I think the market is beginning to see that Tesla has pulled out all the stops to make EV's profitable. That doesn't imply GAAP profits because, well growth. In house battery production, new plants, new models new energy products. But people are seeing how big this can be, how dominant Tesla will be. They still don't understand or widely believe in FSD so that's not going to be valued yet.
Anyway, whoever is driving up the price right now, it might be institutionals slowly testing the waters again (but then again ARK reduced their stake somewhat), but my guess is that it's possibly mostly shorts covering: Q3'2018 must still be a vivid memory.

I'm pretty sure shorts have been steadily covering for some time. Ark's selling is just a drop in the bucket compared to new long positions and I like the way they sell without knocking the price down. I'm glad to have them around - they add some price stability by buying when the market corrects. As their fund grows in size, so will the number of average TSLA shares they hold.

As TSLA runs up there will obviously be some profit-taking, etc. It's telling that the longest run of green days in TSLA history is only eight, at least so far. I think we can look forward to a long run of two steps forward, one step back, sentiment has changed to positive.
 

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