Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[PeterJA]

I can't see that happening. Yeah, there is enough Tesla frenzy that they are selling everything they can make, but I'm pretty sure the other 99% of car owners see them as transportation and will wait for EVs to get some track record at the standard price range before they jump on the bandwagon. You can buy a 150 hp lower end car for $20,000. When you can get a comparable EV with 200 mile range for that price then we can start to talk about EVs making inroads. Until then EVs will be ramping up, but it will still not be the main driver in the auto market.

Also, in 5 years Tesla will not be the major player in the EV market. They will be swamped with competition and had better figure out how to make them cheap enough to sell for well less than $35,000 and still make profit. That's what everyone else will be doing.

Dude, you have a lot to learn about Tesla, and their competition. I recommend you start here:

Master Plan, Part Deux

Tesla At Least 4–5 Years Ahead Of Competition — According To German Auto Industry Expert | CleanTechnica

 

[bhtooefr]

Let me guess. You're asking for a "friend" who was too embarrassed to ask for himself?

I'm pretty sure @bhtooefr is inquiring about the timing of a margin call driven short squeeze that Ihor is hinting at.

Bingo. I'm trying to time a bit of profit taking (now that I actually have profits), not avoid a margin call myself.

(And I'm pretty sure it's a not-a-short-squeeze. )

 

[kbM3]

Yes, Elon said 1k/week Model Y possibly "by the middle of 2020", which is by June 30.

That’s really incredible. As excited as we all are about the surprise profit, the Model Y pull-forward, good news on autonomy and GF3 are really far more important long term,

 

[Prunesquallor]

Ye

Tesla can't make all the world's EVs...yet. They need tens or hundreds more factories all over the world to do so, not to mention a locked down and plentiful supply of lithium and other battery raw materials.

So until then, have to offer a hand to the companies most willing to come along. Not doing so slows the mission.

Maybe, but you charge them the maximum you can without bankrupting them to make them pay for their lack of vision.

 

[SMAlset]

People have been saying basically this since 2012. As we see with *checks* every other major brand currently making EV’s, it turns out it’s not so easy to make that turn-around. No doubt others will be trying to ramp up cheap and good EV’s, but the old guard is going to have to find a way to very quickly and enormously up their game on cost, quality, range, power, and software if they want a hope for survival.

And I don't think many will be able to do their own software and rely on 3rd parties and all that could bring with it. Extra costs as not in-house and not as much control, especially when updates are needed. As it is only a few will be producing their own batteries.

 

[HG Wells]

Bet we see a few model 3's come out of China this week
Good for another 10 points.

 

[woodisgood]

Ye

Maybe, but you charge them the maximum you can without bankrupting them to make them pay for their lack of vision.

Indubitably!

 

[M3Rider]

4) likely margin pressure during China ramp-up..should be small impact

You guys can laugh about this, but my position remains as I stated:

Margins in China will be similar to margins in U.S.
Will it be because of ramp inefficiencies?

No. My thinking is this: Chinese people spend the same hard earned money we do and it would be unfair to them to take 40-50% margin(premium) if we in U.S. pay 25% margin. It would be a form of discrimination based on national origin.

Elon has transcended national and language barriers and applies universal fairness to all. This is my expectation of him, anyway.

 

[Unpilot]

What a evening....and I got a notice I have a new software update.

 

[kbM3]

Seriously! There are just too many good things to recall all of them. I just remembered there’s a big solar roof event tomorrow. Yet another thing that wall street is valuing at zero dollars as of now

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Yes, Elon said 1k/week Model Y possibly "by the middle of 2020", which is by June 30.

I believe that he also added that there was a chance it could be slightly sooner but that they were very confident by middle of 2020.

 

[jerry33]

Ye

Maybe, but you charge them the maximum you can without bankrupting them to make them pay for their lack of vision.

I think you would have to pay them to take it so they can avoid bankruptcy. I don't believe that for most of them there is a price point where they won't go bankrupt. There will likely be new startup companies that could profit from sourcing from Tesla.

 

[Causalien]

Alright, so, call over.

I have questions: how exactly does a margin call work in this scenario (huge event triggering the margin requirement after-hours)?

Would the shorts typically get the margin call before open (tonight/tomorrow morning), upon/shortly after open, near close, or after close tomorrow?

And, don't they have a couple days to resolve the margin call after they get it?

Thus is pretty much why I told that shorty student with no exp to get his head checked. Most shorts has never experienced margin calls and don't know the sequence of events.

In tesla's case. Tomorrow, most brokerage will increase margin requiremwnt because this stock just made a 20% move. Since I fidn't hear of any hige adjustment up foe volatility, most marker maker totally underpriced this volatility event.

The retail shorts will get a call during the day and get liquidated. The ones with good relationship will get a call at closing. The market makers will get 3 days.

The reason why retails get liquidated right away is because they usually naked short with everything on margin. A 20% move usually means you now have negative net worth and getting more negative by the second. Your brokers will work hard to liquidate this first before informing the customers vause ultimately, they don't want to chase after you for the debt.

Market makers usually have other collaterals and are not retards shorting with everything so they should for a while.

 

[Prunesquallor]

So, I take after work nap and this happens. I'll take it.

NAP. SOME. MORE.

 

[kbM3]

Boy! Hyperchange, TechCastDaily, InsideEVs, CleanTechnica et. al. are looking at very little sleep trying to cover the news tonight

 

[EVNow]

Regarding Wash Sales. I think I'm ok to sell one option at a loss, and a different one I already owned with a gain. It sounds like the point of the rule is to not sell at a loss, and THEN repurchase the same/similar within 30 days, to fake a loss.

Right. You can have any number of sales - no buys. If you are planning to write puts or calls it gets confusing. If you aren't, it's fairly easy. Anything TSLA is considered substantially same. So all options and stock.

You can still buy ARKK, for eg.

 

[ElectricOrgan]

People will buy EV’s who otherwise wouldn’t buy a new car.

But is that going to be much of a significant factor??? Yes, some will do it, but mostly people will wait until they need a new car. In fact, I think it may be the opposite where people wait, holding onto their gasoline friend until EVs aren't such strange ducks and they see they don't actually burst into flames so often.

Someone produced a report that indicated once EV production gets rolling and people are switching, the service shops for ICE will have less business... except that the people who are holding onto their ICE will need more repairs, so those shops will see a short lived boom, then a major bust once the majority of cars on the roads become EVs.

Likewise the price of gasoline will drop appreciably once EVs take to the roads in real numbers. That will discourage many people from switching to a vehicle with expensive electricity fuel.

The thing I'm actually concerned about is the local power companies finding excuses for upgrading the local distribution network and adding new fees or increasing the charges for EV related upgrades to their distribution. I think in five or so years this will become a real thing.

 

[MP3Mike]

I guess he's done taking questions from the likes of Tamberrino and Colin Langan. I think he took more questions from Say than from analysts

But some of the Say.com questions were from institutions. So overall I think the Say.com thing is good. It allows Tesla to review the question and plan answers ahead of time. (It also gives Analysts the possibility of asking more questions if their Say.com question get answered then they can answer something else.)

 

[BBone]

Would the Bollinger Bands be a stretchin?

Bollinger band's a-broke'n

 

[ElectricOrgan]

OTA to improve power on S, X, and 3 in a few weeks, 5% for 3, 3% for S and X, improvements for single-pedal driving

Hell, I don't need any more power. I keep the car in sport mode because it feels like ludicrous mode is dangerous. I could use 5% more range! How about a range improvement Elon?