Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Sparky4life]

People have been saying basically this since 2012. As we see with *checks* every other major brand currently making EV’s, it turns out it’s not so easy to make that turn-around. No doubt others will be trying to ramp up cheap and good EV’s, but the old guard is going to have to find a way to very quickly and enormously up their game on cost, quality, range, power, and software if they want a hope for survival.

Batteries. Low cost, high volume. This is critical and traditional automakers have no advantage. Same for software.

 

[mltv]

Been shutting myself up for a while. Gotta vent it out - glad I did not listen to common sense. Still vested 100% in TSLA. Diversify... why. I am stubborn and cannot learn new tricks.

 

[ElectricOrgan]

I think he was trying to say that it would be better for the company, and the mission, if they stopped making the S&X and used that low-volume production space, to make higher volume Model 3 and Model Y vehicles. (And pickup.)

Tesla can't make the perfect car for everyone, for the mission they need to concentrate on the higher volume/less expensive vehicles.

When are they going to make the "less expensive" vehicles???

 

[StealthP3D]

IMO whatever the form of the pickup it will not be a straight up competitor to a single vehicle like the F150. It will pull buyers from many market segments. It will create a new Ev truck class with characteristics that don't fit ICE market segmentation.

What do you mean when you say it will not be a "straight up" competitor to the F-150? Either it competes and steals sales or it doesn't.

Personally, I can't wait to get rid of my F-150 (that is only used for truck tasks). I want to sell it before the market for clean used ICE 4x4 trucks falls in the dumpster.

 

[RobStark]

His answer to this question had more hidden between the lines than I detected in other answers. He exhaled quickly before answering batteries as well as battery packs would be produced in the expansion building then quickly tried to get our attention on the expansion being part of eventual Y production as well. What was interesting is the reluctance to admitting cell production where he wouldn't even use the word cell. I think Elon is frustrated with how hard it is to keep a secret

"battery and module production" usually means battery pack and module. Not cell.

 

[ZachF]

In case some of you guys haven't noticed, I've had to be away from my computer much more than normal...

Damn, what a pleasant surprise.

TSLAQ tears taste delicious.

 

[capster]

Me too. I bought a few months ago (I think, certainly it was this year) at about the same level you have as a basis. When I saw the stock trade at 307 after hours, I dumped all of my shares. Maybe it goes higher, but sitting on a 50% gain in less than a year makes me a bit concerned about protecting against downside, so I'll take the profit and buy a snowmobile and if the stock drops back into the low 200 range again, I'll buy as long as there isn't a negative development in fundamentals.

I expect you’ll find in time that proves to be one expensive snowmobile.

 

[EVNow]

You can listen to the CleanTechnica YouTube video of it:

(1.5x speed helps.)

The official recording is available as well: https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/z7r768gm

Thanks - looking for something I can read. Can't use audio right now.

 

[Pras]

Been shutting myself up for a while. Gotta vent it out - glad I did not listen to common sense. Still vested 100% in TSLA. Diversify... why. I am stubborn and cannot learn new tricks.

Benefits from diversification, within same asset class, is overstated.

 

[RobStark]

You guys can laugh about this, but my position remains as I stated:

Margins in China will be similar to margins in U.S.
Will it be because of ramp inefficiencies?

No. My thinking is this: Chinese people spend the same hard earned money we do and it would be unfair to them to take 40-50% margin(premium) if we in U.S. pay 25% margin. It would be a form of discrimination based on national origin.

Elon has transcended national and language barriers and applies universal fairness to all. This is my expectation of him, anyway.

Elon said same price everywhere plus shipping and local taxes.

He never said same margins everywhere.

 

[ElectricOrgan]

No one ever mentions that it takes an entire new structure for an existing company to have EV to be made in any scale. Using an existing car does not cut it, other than making a few so you can say you made them.

Not only that, making an EV model of an existing model basically cuts into your own existing sales. Its a purely defensive move. The only result of a great, fully EV BMW 5 series is less ICE sales for BMW.

Finally, you can see the cost to Tesla, the other legacy automakers will have the same costs.

VW is the only automaker anywhere near volume production.

The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars. Tesla had to learn how to build EVs, now they are learning how to build mass market cars, something the majors have been doing for a long, long time.

But the real limitation Tesla is facing is they can only come out with one new model every year... if they are lucky. The majors can put into production half a dozen new cars each year if they want to. That's what GM is doing. Tesla will have maybe four or five models in 2022 while the majors will have that many each and more in the pipeline.

The real mass buyers will be swayed to buy EVs when nearly every automaker has them on the lot to test drive and kick tires. I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.

 

[Sparky4life]

I don't know that. If I could get my money back, I think I would. I will say autopilot is pretty nice, but I'm going to have to start paying rent at my service center.

I hate to break it to you, but I think you actually bought a knock off. And that service center you have been hanging out at isn't actually run by Tesla...

 

[EVNow]

Now I'm laughing. Low $200's without a negative development in the fundamentals??

Where can I lobby for a "hilarious" emoticon rating?

The way we can get to low 200s is a bad Q1 and a big drop in NASDAQ.

I think at least for a while we are now back in 300 being a significant support level, let alone 255.

 

[Causalien]

Yeah, that's why actual shorting is so ridiculously risky.


That sounds like... slow burn as retail shorts get forced out, possibly even preventing a MMD tomorrow (granted, I also expect with strong profit on the back of operational improvements, institutions will also be piling in, and I feel like any MMD would be repelled)? Excellent.

I think the bigger turkey to slay right now are those old gangrene shorts by large interested parties. Basically that 20% float that has been consistently there since tge beginning. Before the 420 fiasco I calculated that tgey will get squeezed if the stock get past $400. So tge VW type squeeze (but slower) will happen there.

 

[MP3Mike]

When are they going to make the "less expensive" vehicles???

They already are. The 3&Y are less expensive that the S&X. When do they go less expensive than the 3&Y? Hopefully never as other OEMs will take care of that. But if they don't Tesla will probably do that after they have other things taken care of: Multiple GFs all over the world, Pickup, Semi, Storage ramped up, etc.

 

[ReflexFunds]

To think some people still question Elon’s capability as CEO.
I am almost certain no company has ever executed so well on such a huge scale on so many different fronts as Tesla has done over the past 12 months.
Of course, there are inevitable growing pains with any growth company, and Elon isn’t perfect - particularly his communication skills, but what he and the team has delivered speaks for itself.

 

[mblakele]

Thanks - looking for something I can read. Can't use audio right now.

The usual suspects haven't posted a transcript as I type. You probably knew that, but here are the links in case it helps anyone.

• Tesla - TSLA - Stock Price & News | The Motley Fool
  
• Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) Earnings Transcripts | Seeking Alpha

 

[ElectricOrgan]

I hate to break it to you, but I think you actually bought a knock off. And that service center you have been hanging out at isn't actually run by Tesla...

Lol, I shouldn't have bought it through Aliexpress.

 

[StealthP3D]

Um... it'd be the second biggest single-day move ever for this stock in percentage terms. The biggest in absolute terms.

I should have clarified my comment that 20% gap up isn't a huge move. Yes, pretty good for an After Hours one day move but what really matters from an investment standpoint is compound growth. And if you take profits along the way it really kills your compound growth. In other words, don't salivate over a measly 20%, that's not where wealth comes from, you can't count on getting a lot of 20% gap ups. To build wealth effectively it's necessary to take advantage of compounding growth (which is very hard to do if you're constantly "taking profits" on the way up). Yet that is exactly what a beginning investor's first impulse is, to "lock in" the gains. It's stupid and counter-productive to building real wealth.

That said... I don't see this stopping after one day. You've got the delayed process of shorts covering, you have analyst upgrades, etc etc. )

I agree and I'm looking forward to watching this play out but my real eye is on the long-term growth of the company. Because as the company goes, so will the share price. What we have witnessed today is the beginning of the market adjusting to Tesla's actual prospects. It's still under-valued. Play the volatility at your own risk.

 

[ElectricOrgan]

They already are. The 3&Y are less expensive that the S&X. When do they go less expensive than the 3&Y? Hopefully never as other OEMs will take care of that. But if they don't Tesla will probably do that after they have other things taken care of: Multiple GFs all over the world, Pickup, Semi, Storage ramped up, etc.

If Tesla does that it won't be able to compete in five years or so. There are advancements in batteries that will drop the price in five years. Heck, just the shear volume of manufacturing will drop the costs for the really big players. If Tesla is selling a million a year and other makers are selling 10 million each, who do you think will be able to drop their manufacturing costs more quickly? That's the fight they are in. Not about making a few hundred million profit this quarter.

Everyone else will be selling similar vehicles for a lower price and Tesla won't be able to maintain volumes. Tesla will have to produce lower cost cars to survive.