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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

Artful Dodger

"Ducimus, lit"
Aug 9, 2018
8,266
101,030
Canada
I wonder what the share price will do when that parking lot starts filling up with Model 3's?

(That was a rhetorical question!)
Thru extensive research, TSLAQ has already determined that:
  • there isn't going to be a Gigafactory in China
  • that factory isn't going to produce any cars
  • those cars won't be profitable and they'll be 'chinese'
  • GF3 will never produce more than 1K 3K per week
  • there isn't going to be a bty workshop 2nd Gigafactory
  • and, importantly, there's IS NO demand.
Anything I miss? /S

TSLAQ.duck.jpg


Cheers!
 

ElectricOrgan

Member
Oct 11, 2019
131
-29
USA
The big question for the legacy auto makers isn't whether they can make an EV, it is a question of whether they can do it on a mass scale and show profitability. As far as I know, the Tesla "competitors" have developed cars to sell in small numbers because they can't sell them at any significant profit so they are more of a liability to their bottom line than anything else. Until they figure this out (and to this point nobody has that I know of) EVs will simply be compliance cars that manufacturers make to either satisfy governmental emissions regulations or an attempt to improve public relations to show everyone how "eco friendly" they are.

Dan

I don't think it is harder for GM or VW to make a profit on EVs than for Tesla. Lord knows Tesla is having a hard time with it. The major auto makers have only dipped their toes because they understand the economics and see the market is not quite there yet. They also know the real market is China. That's why the first of GM's new EVs will be made and sold there. The US will be the second batch.
 
The big issue in the Automotive space is that incumbents (and many pundits/analysts) are treating EVs as sustaining innovations, and are only treating autonomy as potentially disruptive.

This.

Most of the individual aspects of what Tesla's doing are not deal breakers for a legacy car maker. But if you add them all up? Tell you what, we'll even make it easier and leave autonomy off the table.

Replacing an ICE engine with an electric motor? Simple.
Replacing a fuel tank with a big battery? Piece of cake.
Obtaining thousands of big batteries? ehhh... can be done by forking over a gigaton of cash to a battery manufacturer, probably
OTA firmware upgrades? Sure, why not (oh, wait.. except for pesky laws saying that maintenance must be done by dealers, not OEMs)
Unified infotainment/nav/control/UI? well... we have all those vendors we'd have to scrap
Convenient fast charging network? Fuggetaboutit.
Direct sales? Not gonna happen without a bunch of friendly legislators.
Automated alien dreadnought? Over the union's dead body.
 

dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,471
12,974
Naperville, IL
The unions have reason to fret, that CEO Tavares is a cost cutting fiend. But he bought Opel back to profitability after 15 years of loosing money under GM.

On the EV front, my guess, is that CEO Tavares (he is not pro EV by some of his statements) take the cheap route and makes a deal to use VW's MEB platform. The Tesla parts sharing rumor doesn't seem probable to me.

I don't think MEB will work well for them. Initial costs are much higher then Tesla. The key is probably who has supply and would be willing to share pack supplies. Both VW & especially Tesla, may be able to see everything they can make at 30% margins. Is there a way for Tesla or VW to expand battery cell and pack production faster then vehicle assembly, if they had more money or guaranteed cash flow?
 

TradingInvest

Active Member
Mar 8, 2017
1,694
13,611
USA
Tesla should spend some effort to educate it's shareholder base. I invested in a company that every year the CEO together with the senior management team have a big meeting with shareholders. (In addition to the regular annual shareholder meeting).

The goal of that meeting is to educate the shareholders. During the meeting, they spend a lot of time candidly explain what they do, how they do it, and what to expect, the good, the bad, the long term, the short term. They want shareholders to really understand the company and to have the right expectations. They want to have the right shareholders, not to push the stock price. When I look at the stock, it has no volatility, it barely moves in months. I can guess the price correctly even if I haven't checked it for months. When I step back to look, the stock has gone up more than 1000 fold in 30 years.

Tesla attracted lots of inexperienced investors, and lots of leveraged gamblers, they become victims of the stock manipulators. When the manipulators make tons of profit, they are like shark found blood. I think educating the shareholders is very important. Good shareholder base is a valuable asset to the company. To be fair, Tesla has many intelligent investors too.

Correction, not 1000 fold, it's 120 fold. Big difference.
 

Lycanthrope

S3XY old dude
Nov 15, 2013
8,664
65,943
At home
Do you use Firefox? If so, just open a "New Private Window". Since it won't logon with your Twitter credentials, when you view a twitter feed you won't be recognized as being on the TSLAQ block list. So the feed will be displayed as if you were an unregistered twitter visitor.

Cheers!

You just need to use another browser where you're not logged-in. Copy-paste a tweet URL and you're in. Of course you can't post anything, but you can read everything - just be aware you may feel nauseous as a result and will need to take a shower afterwards.
 

Mike Ambler

Member
Apr 11, 2016
59
218
ITALY
I believe I remember Elon stating a few years ago that with a solar farm 100 miles square at the 4 corners area, he could power the entire United States. I wonder what it would take for Australia?

:)
Solar -> see the red dot
Batteries -> about a pixel

Power Australia
Solar 71km2
Battery 7.1km2 (Powepacks)
 

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RobStark

Well-Known Member
Jul 2, 2013
10,228
52,296
City of Champions, USA
I don't think MEB will work well for them. Initial costs are much higher then Tesla. The key is probably who has supply and would be willing to share pack supplies. Both VW & especially Tesla, may be able to see everything they can make at 30% margins. Is there a way for Tesla or VW to expand battery cell and pack production faster then vehicle assembly, if they had more money or guaranteed cash flow?

Ford-VW Partnership Expands, Blue Oval Getting MEB Platform For EVs
 

Dan Detweiler

Active Member
Apr 21, 2016
3,005
12,474
Canton, Georgia
I don't think it is harder for GM or VW to make a profit on EVs than for Tesla. Lord knows Tesla is having a hard time with it. The major auto makers have only dipped their toes because they understand the economics and see the market is not quite there yet. They also know the real market is China. That's why the first of GM's new EVs will be made and sold there. The US will be the second batch.
Batteries? They certainly won't be able to buy them cheaper than Tesla can make them, and they certainly won't have the same specs. If they're smart they would be begging Tesla to sell them their batteries but that wouldn't help in the short term since Tesla can barely make enough now to keep up with their own cars let alone provide enough for any significant ramp by another manufacturer. So they are forced to rely on inferior tech from other manufacturers that also can't make enough. There is no way out for them without spending HUGE amounts of money and then they STILL won't have the pack technology to compete with Tesla on price or specs. They have backed themselves into a corner they very well may not be able to get out of.

Dan
 

heltok

Active Member
Aug 12, 2014
1,142
9,625
Sweden
Regarding Tesla selling skateboards to FCA-PSA. Sure it makes sense for them to do that today. But once Tesla has released FSD? Imo it makes no sense for Tesla, they should just push out as many Teslas as they can because:
-They will sell every car they can produce
-Profits will be sky high on every car
-Each car will decrease CO2 emission much more than a car sold by another manufacturer without FSD

If Elon is correct in that FSD will be out around end Q4 and Robotaxi will get regulatory approval somewhere in 2020/2021 then Tesla would be stupid to give away any battery packs to anyone. What they should do is just crank out Model Ys in millions per year and buy them themselves.
 
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dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,471
12,974
Naperville, IL
Interesting tale of two articles. Lora Koladny on CNBC shows up in my Stock time bar and Teslarati article about Tesla getting to 3000 weekly this year shows up nowhere. It got me wondering if both SEO (search engine optimization) and financial algo's use a lot of the same math and if Teslarati and other EV providers are missing some SEO knowledge. These seemingly stupid articles by Lora, which are exceedingly misleading, show up in google and the iphone stock app, while data driven articles like Tom Randall, or verified articles like Simon Alverez' article about Shanghai starting at 3000 a week, stated by the head of mfg at the site, gets no coverage. The negative articles show up in search, but they also seem to have a significant financial algo impact. Maybe Lora's inaccurate and misleading articles have some hidden cleverness that is missing from the honest articles from Teslarati.

I think SEO is basic to modern web publishing, but I assume some organizations are more sophisticated. There was also some whompy wheels type NHSTA fire request for information from Tesla announcement. I'd be surprised if the investigation is not 3rd party inspired and the 3rd party is likely some short person or group.

Anyhow, I'm interested if anyone out there is a SEO or works in big finance, is there some optimizing that the EV sites are not getting? Their articles almost never show up in my iphone stock ticket. This seems like a short coming of the publishing sites. You can blame the algo the stock apps use, but that's futile. It is up to publishers to get visibility.
 

adiggs

Active Member
Sep 25, 2012
4,177
11,401
Portland, OR
...

If Elon is correct in that FSD will be out around end Q4 and Robotaxi will get regulatory approval somewhere in 2020/2021 then Tesla would be stupid to give away any battery packs to anyone. What they should do is just crank out Model Ys in millions per year and buy them themselves.

This being an investing thread, is that scenario - FSD technology available and widely provided regulatory approval in '20 or '21 an important component of your Tesla valuation / investment thesis?

More generally, I'm wondering who else that posts in the thread has this as a serious or even critical component of their valuation (as in - Tesla's valuation is only going to go up bigly if it's true, and it's about right or overvalued if it's not true).


For me, with what I've personally experienced of Tesla's driver assist (omg - I love it), what I know about the world of data science / machine learning (it's my job, but I don't work in or have experience with vision systems), and what I think about how hard it's going to be to get cars driving themselves around unattended (technically, and regulatory approval), if my investment thesis / valuation was dependent on a 20/21 availability, then I'd exit my Tesla position approximately immediately.

The risk of failure of that outcome is too high - not commensurate with the reward.

My personal investment thesis doesn't have driverless vehicles running around to collect the next fare for 10 years, and results in a 10+ year buy and hold investment window (where 10+ is probably shorthand for "until I die"). If actual driverless cars happens sooner than 10 years, then that's a lot of gravy :)
 

Curt Renz

Well-Known Member
Mar 5, 2013
6,276
78,930
USA
Interesting tale of two articles. Lora Koladny on CNBC shows up in my Stock time bar and Teslarati article about Tesla getting to 3000 weekly this year shows up nowhere. It got me wondering if both SEO (search engine optimization) and financial algo's use a lot of the same math and if Teslarati and other EV providers are missing some SEO knowledge. These seemingly stupid articles by Lora, which are exceedingly misleading, show up in google and the iphone stock app, while data driven articles like Tom Randall, or verified articles like Simon Alverez' article about Shanghai starting at 3000 a week, stated by the head of mfg at the site, gets no coverage. The negative articles show up in search, but they also seem to have a significant financial algo impact. Maybe Lora's inaccurate and misleading articles have some hidden cleverness that is missing from the honest articles from Teslarati.

I think SEO is basic to modern web publishing, but I assume some organizations are more sophisticated. There was also some whompy wheels type NHSTA fire request for information from Tesla announcement. I'd be surprised if the investigation is not 3rd party inspired and the 3rd party is likely some short person or group.

Anyhow, I'm interested if anyone out there is a SEO or works in big finance, is there some optimizing that the EV sites are not getting? Their articles almost never show up in my iphone stock ticket. This seems like a short coming of the publishing sites. You can blame the algo the stock apps use, but that's futile. It is up to publishers to get visibility.

Even if their coverage is often questionable, CNBC (a unit of NBC) has clout.
 

Thekiwi

Active Member
Mar 31, 2016
1,384
11,950
Wellington
Interesting tale of two articles. Lora Koladny on CNBC shows up in my Stock time bar and Teslarati article about Tesla getting to 3000 weekly this year shows up nowhere. It got me wondering if both SEO (search engine optimization) and financial algo's use a lot of the same math and if Teslarati and other EV providers are missing some SEO knowledge. These seemingly stupid articles by Lora, which are exceedingly misleading, show up in google and the iphone stock app, while data driven articles like Tom Randall, or verified articles like Simon Alverez' article about Shanghai starting at 3000 a week, stated by the head of mfg at the site, gets no coverage. The negative articles show up in search, but they also seem to have a significant financial algo impact. Maybe Lora's inaccurate and misleading articles have some hidden cleverness that is missing from the honest articles from Teslarati.

I think SEO is basic to modern web publishing, but I assume some organizations are more sophisticated. There was also some whompy wheels type NHSTA fire request for information from Tesla announcement. I'd be surprised if the investigation is not 3rd party inspired and the 3rd party is likely some short person or group.

Anyhow, I'm interested if anyone out there is a SEO or works in big finance, is there some optimizing that the EV sites are not getting? Their articles almost never show up in my iphone stock ticket. This seems like a short coming of the publishing sites. You can blame the algo the stock apps use, but that's futile. It is up to publishers to get visibility.

You are probably right about better SEO optimization from the clickbait networks (CNBC). The iPhone stocks app is just using Yahoo news finance feed for each stock, so you would have to look at yahoo (Verizon) partnerships there with respect to what shows up in the content feed.
 
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