Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tslynk67]

For a few weeks now I've been voicing my opinion that not only does the blatant FUD no longer work, it has the opposite effect. Investors are onto it and want to profit from it. If it looks like it has depressed the share price, that's their buy signal.

We can expect the FUD to become a bit more subtle, sophisticated and less obvious in the coming months in response to this.

Totally agree, FUD appears to be toothless at the moment. I guess it's what many have always said - show results, execute, deliver, profits and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Tesla has 42,000 employees globally, 3,200 in China, chairwoman says

Tesla Chairwoman Robyn Denholm Says Firm Has 42,000 Employees Globally and 3,200 in China; Says Already Producing in China Factory

 

[jeewee3000]

S,X can easily do 100k if they refresh/redesign it. (Bear in mind that EV market penetration overall is still in its infancy.) Maybe with plaid powertrain, V3 max supercharge rate, and some interior refresh.

Elon is really being coy about S,X, saying on the CC that it's not really important, but then going ballistic on twitter with plaid powertrain and kicking porsche butt. They're up to something, but trying not to osborne current S,X sales. Expect some sort of surprise around this line next year.

Let's not go there again. I agree Elon always has something up his sleeve, but a complete S and X overhaul is not it. The cars will just gradually keep improving, as has been announced many times. If you'll want the new goodies like Plaid mode, you'll pay for them in full so the lower S and X models are not osborned (as much). Great gross margins on Plaid, I hear.

View attachment 473327

GF5 or GF6 really needs to be in India with significant support from the Indian Government. This is a humanitarian crisis.

To help put this in perspective, during some of our more severe forest fire smoke events in the Pacific NW we typically don't experience PM2.5 levels exceeding 250-300, and that is miserable. These unfortunate people in Delhi are living at 3-4 times those levels on a daily basis.

It is a humanitarian crisis, but unfortunately Tesla alone won't be able to fix the place. A great part of the pollution in New Delhi originates from burning crops and waste, i.e. things besides transport.

Of course I agree pollution would be a lot lower if they had BEV's on the road. But overall a more general approach is needed, with more strict environmental laws and a non-corrupt executive force. TLDR: it'll take a while for India to catch up eco-wise, which is terrible for its citizens.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

The last few days I was thinking about the direction TSLA could take in the coming 2-3 months, and I believe there is a strong chance there will be upward pressure because of what happened after the Q3 earnings report. A lot of shorts were caught completely off guard by the sudden rise by 50 points on day 1 and another 25 points on day 2. A lot of them are now stuck in a split, and they are not gymnasts, so it’s painful.

As we approach the Q4 delivery report in two months' time and Q4 earnings report in three months' time, the fear of being caught off guard a second time will rise. Most of them will not be able to cope with another big surge. If you think a split is painful, how about being quartered? So yeah, I think we will see gradual covering by shorts, which will gain speed as we get nearer to the reports. And that should push TSLA to new heights.

No advice ofcourse.

 

[KarenRei]

The last few days I was thinking about the direction TSLA could take in the coming 2-3 months, and I believe there is a strong chance there will be upward pressure because of what happened after the Q3 earnings report. A lot of shorts were caught completely off guard by the sudden rise by 50 points on day 1 and another 25 points on day 2. A lot of them are now stuck in a split (and they are not gymnasts, so it’s painful).

As we approach the Q4 delivery report in two months' time and Q4 earnings report in three months' time, the fear of being caught off guard a second time will rise. Most of them will not be able to cope with another big surge. If you think a split is painful, how about being quartered? So yeah, I think we will see gradual covering by shorts, which will gain speed as we get nearer to the reports. And that should push TSLA to new heights.

No advice ofcourse.

Agreed. Everything is shaping up for a monster Q4. So long as there's not a terrible outlook for Q1 - with given how they already had to start shifting some new orders to Q1, certainly doesn't look to be the case - there should be another huge surge.

 

[davecolene0606]

"

And it has 4 doors,4 wheels and is premium priced. Making it a direct competitor to the Model S.

Tesla's mission isn't to dominate the EV ghetto.

It is to make the best cars.

”Accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable energy”

Fire Away!

 

[pnungesser]

IMHO, I don’t think Plaid will osbourne S&X as it will be sold at a significant premium. Think P85D v S75.

Fire Away!

Plus, there are a lot of people who really don't care about owning that level of performance. I take people for rides in our 2016 S90D and they are all still blown away. I still use the performance when appropriate, but seldom, or never, need to put the pedal to the metal. I may at some point decide to buy another to move up to HW3, but even then a S100D will have more performance than I will ever "need". When does one get to use the performance in a "plaid" in normal daily driving. Most of buyers are not interested in going to the track.

 

[KarenRei]

... while breaking Nuremberg records.

Greatest number of Nazis tried at once?

 

[davecolene0606]

It's limited by the 18650 cell output from Japan and Tesla has no intention to ask Panasonic to expand production.

one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!

 

[CorneliusXX]

VW wants a carbon price. The times are changing quickly.

Fred alert!

VW CEO Diess says batteries are better than hydrogen, calls for carbon price - Electrek

 

[ReflexFunds]

Part 3 of Tom Randall's Tesla owner survery is now published at Bloomberg. Focussed on Autopilot.

We asked 5,000 Model 3 owners about Tesla’s software for automated driving on highways and parking lots. More than 90% said the feature makes them safer.

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[bhtooefr]

one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

IIRC they're tweaked for that level when there's a mix of 75 kWh and 100 kWh packs. 75 kWh no longer exists.

I forget what the mix actually was, but if it was 50/50, that means there's enough cells for about 87.6k S+X with all 100 kWh packs.

 

[CorneliusXX]

one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!

Only when there was a split of large and small batteries.

 

[ReflexFunds]

Agreed. Everything is shaping up for a monster Q4. So long as there's not a terrible outlook for Q1 - with given how they already had to start shifting some new orders to Q1, certainly doesn't look to be the case - there should be another huge surge.

I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.

• Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
• The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
• Tesla is also prioritising AWD production over SR+ for Europe which should encourage trade ups and better ASP in Q4.
• The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
• Some prices were increased in Q4.
• Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
• Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
• Likely continued work on production cost savings.

On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).

 

[RobStark]

"


”Accelerate the worlds transition to sustainable energy”

Fire Away!

How so?

By making compelling solar PV and BES.

And ??????

 

[UncaNed]

If electric cars were ten times better than ICE cars then the transition would be complete in ten years ... but they aren't. How many new Tesla buyers crush their old cars? Zero. The car you sold to buy your new Tesla will very likely still be burning fuel ten years from now. Do you think Greta will want to take a sailboat from NY to Shanghai or fly on a carbon powered rocket?

Many will languish unused as "backup" vehicles till the dinosaur-juice turns to steenking-sticky varnishy gas-gunk. Then off to the recycling place to be smashed with a 900 lb 3-fingered grabber-upper and dropped on the pile-o-smashed car junk.

 

[UncaNed]

I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.

• Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
• The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
• The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
• Some prices were increased in Q4.
• Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
• Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
• Likely continued work on production cost savings.

On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).

All the FSD and rail posts are important I'm sure but why is TSLA up $8+ today? I see lots of negative FUD.

You're welcome, @madodel. Just parroting Elon about an overlooked Tesla Semi efficiency vs. rail to add one little "pro" item to lists like @ReflexFunds , had no idea we'd analyze the daylights out of this.

 

[davecolene0606]

IIRC they're tweaked for that level when there's a mix of 75 kWh and 100 kWh packs. 75 kWh no longer exists.

I forget what the mix actually was, but if it was 50/50, that means there's enough cells for about 87.6k S+X with all 100 kWh packs.

Point conceded.

Fire Away!

 

[davecolene0606]

How so?

By making compelling solar PV and BES.

And ??????

And Ecosystem, machine that makes the machine, proof that there’s more money in it, sustainably, than present method.

Fire Away!

 

[UncaNed]

So, you're saying you are a masochist?

The problem here is the share price is determined by investor sentiment which is really hard to predict in advance. We are likely close to a "step change" in the way investors think about Tesla (meaning within a year or perhaps as long as two). When that happens the share price will probably run up unexpectedly well past your sell point. The few thousand here and there that you may have been able to "scalp" will more likely than not pale in comparison to what you missed out on. I understand you think you are avoiding that problem since you are only trading a portion of your TSLA investment but that is really irrelevant (you have to look at every dollar individually). The only way that strategy makes any sense is if you want to partially hedge your long position because you think Tesla might not ever amount to much or might be a losing investment (by reducing exposure when you think Tesla might decline).

While I agree that would have been a good strategy over the last several years (assuming you have better than average ability to time the drops and the rises), the past behavior does not indicate future behavior and we are likely entering a new phase.

You're probably right. Which ultimately does better, the 90% held shares or the 10% gambled shares?

But how many "step changes" in not so many words- did we tell ourselves we saw in the last 4 years because we saw a short squeeze or whatever, and still SP dropped by $100 anyway?

-Edited for poor composition.