Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

New Bloomberg survey out (Autopilot):

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Summary (with graphics) here:

Nafnlaus on Twitter

ED: Oops, looks like I'm late to the party

 

[jerry33]

one of my reasons for the 100K S&X # is that the 18650 lines are tweaked for that level. Anymore and they would have to add capacity, which, I highly doubt anyone has any intention of doing.

To be clear, I think all out worldwide mature market demand will be 100K of S&X.

Fire Away!

At some point, the battery will be changed.

 

[nativewolf]

I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

Many positive tailwinds for Q4 relative to Q3.

• Likely a large increase in deliveries QoQ for both S/X and 3. I would currently guess 20k S/X and 90k Model 3s.
• The large backlog means Tesla may not launch any end of quarter deals or clearance sales which will improve ASP and margins. Customers have become conditioned to wait for these due to Tesla's past behaviour and orders as well as deliveries are normally weighted to month 3 of each quarter. Tesla may not need to trigger these buyers this quarter.
• Tesla is also prioritising AWD production over SR+ for Europe which should encourage trade ups and better ASP in Q4.
• The large backlog gives Tesla more time to match end of quarter inventory to customers and makes further inventory reduction in Q4 likely. The uncertainty is in China where Tesla would have stockpiled inventory to sell ahead of the tariff hike (and demand in this short time period is easy to misjudge). And also where Tesla may choose to stockpile GF3 Model 3s for extended quality testing.
• Some prices were increased in Q4.
• Continued production ramp at Fremont in Q4 will further leverage fixed costs and staff costs. Tesla already got some of the benefits from this in Q3 - much of their equipment was ramped further than the simple finished vehicle production numbers suggest because in Q3 they built c.7k battery packs (and likely motors and some other parts) to send to GF3.
• Likely further ramp of Tesla solar and storage. Particularly with Megapack launch in Q4.
• Likely continued work on production cost savings.

On the headwind side, they may have some negative gross margin from the GF3 production ramp and solar roof production ramp at GF2. They are also unlikely to repeat the $85m FX/other profit benefit and the $37m warranty reserve change (which may have been driven by FX and included in the $85m anyway).

@ReflexFunds Thanks again for the Der Spiegel article. Read again. Very interesting for what it says and does not say.

 

[FreqFlyer]

New theory: plaid motors are a spinoff from Tesla pickup development.

That theory has been mentioned already, and you are right. The pickup is paying for the development of this new powertrain, and the S/X and Roadster are the beneficiaries.

 

[mongo]

That theory has been mentioned already, and you are right. The pickup is paying for the development of this new powertrain, and the S/X and Roadster are the beneficiaries.

Hummm, Roadster 2020 is the first plaid and was demoed when the pickup was just concept art (as far as we know). Pickup could go solid axle like the semi for loading reasons versus the center mounted drive unit style. (can also do that style with load structure separate from drive (a wishbone around the drive unit).

Regardless isn't all drive unit development is R&D? If so, it is the company as a whole paying for the development, not a specific model (distinction needed for COGS once in production).

 

[shootformoon]

I feel funny, no, actually sad that real believers still think FUD is toothless at this moment. Some always use the excuse that tesla is selling every car they produce so there is only production issue. There is no production issue. Let me make this clear. According to the 2018 road map, fremont should be popping out 10k/w M3 now. Why it did not happen? Well, tesla is monitoring the real time demand, which is the order flow. The order flow is increasing, but thanks to FUD, so many potential buyers either postpone or buy another ICE. So the order growth rate is nowhere close to their original exponential expectation. If the order growth is really like back then 400k reservation in couple week kind of demand, GA5 and GA6 already up and running in freemont and I dont know, GF 4 would be under conversion/construction in a midwest factory, not waiting for slow euro red tape. GF3 is serving asia area so it has nothing to do with north america demand.

The only blessing here is tesla is so agile that it adjusted to the new growth curve and aggressively cut capex. We now know the future growth will be more cost effective. But make no mistake. This is not the growth rate we bulls envisioned in 2018, all thanks to FUD.

Totally agree, FUD appears to be toothless at the moment. I guess it's what many have always said - show results, execute, deliver, profits and the rest will take care of itself.

 

[StealthP3D]

Pickup could go solid axle like the semi for loading reasons versus the center mounted drive unit style.

The pickup will not be solid axle. That's incompatible with Elon's claim that it will handle like a fine sportscar.

 

[MP3Mike]

So I don't understand the basis of that objection - higher unsprung mass is not deal-breaking constraint I believe:

SoylentBrown pretty much already said that isn't it:

SoylentBrown
@BrownSoylent

Replying to
@EcoHeliGuy
I'll go ahead and say that hub motors are a bad idea. Massively increase unsprung mass and subject the motors to severe shock loads. But you're sorta kinda right in a bizarre way!!

 

[mongo]

I feel funny, no, actually sad that real believers still think FUD is toothless at this moment. Some always use the excuse that tesla is selling every car they produce so there is only production issue. There is no production issue. Let me make this clear. According to the 2018 road map, fremont should be popping out 10k/w M3 now. Why it did not happen? Well, tesla is monitoring the real time demand, which is the order flow. The order flow is increasing, but thanks to FUD, so many potential buyers either postpone or buy another ICE. So the order growth rate is nowhere close to their original exponential expectation. If the order growth is really like back then 400k reservation in couple week kind of demand, GA5 and GA6 already up and running in freemont and I dont know, GF 4 would be under conversion/construction in a midwest factory, not waiting for slow euro red tape. GF3 is serving asia area so it has nothing to do with north america demand.

The only blessing here is tesla is so agile that it adjusted to the new growth curve and aggressively cut capex. We now know the future growth will be more cost effective. But make no mistake. This is not the growth rate we bulls envisioned in 2018, all thanks to FUD.

Tesla added Model 3 capacity via GF3 and incremental improvement to Fremont instead of the original plan of more equipment at Fremont and no/ delayed GF3. They were capital use savvy. Order backlog keeps increasing. Fremont is pumping out more than the original plan for the first round of build was (7k ish vs 5kish).

 

[FreqFlyer]

Hummm, Roadster 2020 is the first plaid and was demoed when the pickup was just concept art (as far as we know). Pickup could go solid axle like the semi for loading reasons versus the center mounted drive unit style. (can also do that style with load structure separate from drive (a wishbone around the drive unit).

Regardless isn't all drive unit development is R&D? If so, it is the company as a whole paying for the development, not a specific model (distinction needed for COGS once in production).

True, its expected or hoped that the pickup will sell in higher quantities than the S/X and for sure the niche Roadster. As regards a live axle on the rear of the pickup truck, interesting. I figured Tesla would go with an independent rear setup with air suspension.

Elon's words about the pickup handling as well as a Porsche 911 gives reason to think the Plaid powertrain will be in the pickup truck.

 

[Pezpunk]

It may be comforting to tell ourselves that the FUD has no effect, and i'm sure by now WE have built up an immunity to it, but that really isn't the case with the general public.

Case in point: Saturday night, my mother in law's sister frantically texted my wife asking her if I had moved my Tesla out of the garage, since she saw a report on NBC that so many were catching on fire that the government was launching some kind of investigation. (arghhh)

it's a mistake to be comforted or seduced into thinking the FUD has lost its effectiveness. It's a pain, but it is unfortunately a battle that still has to be fought. ignoring it or assuming it will work itself out just results in disinformation becoming accepted truth by the general public.

 

[ev-enthusiast]

MMD did not last long today.

 

[HG Wells]

MMD did not last long today.

From: Boss Short
To: Tesla Fanboy

Don't worry, we had a 9AM meeting that's running late.
No one is at their trading desk yet.

Sincerely
Boss Short

 

[StealthP3D]

I feel funny, no, actually sad that real believers still think FUD is toothless at this moment. Some always use the excuse that tesla is selling every car they produce so there is only production issue. There is no production issue. Let me make this clear. According to the 2018 road map, fremont should be popping out 10k/w M3 now. Why it did not happen? Well, tesla is monitoring the real time demand, which is the order flow. The order flow is increasing, but thanks to FUD, so many potential buyers either postpone or buy another ICE. So the order growth rate is nowhere close to their original exponential expectation. If the order growth is really like back then 400k reservation in couple week kind of demand, GA5 and GA6 already up and running in freemont and I dont know, GF 4 would be under conversion/construction in a midwest factory, not waiting for slow euro red tape. GF3 is serving asia area so it has nothing to do with north america demand.

First off, you are responding to a discussion about FUD press releases being able to move the market, not FUD being able to soften demand.

Secondly, you are assuming that Tesla must be demand constrained since they did not hit their original Model 3 production targets. The production targets were not hit because it's extremely difficult to build that many cars from a base of nothing, not because demand was soft. At first, they were battery constrained and then, later, the rest of the car was production constrained. That's why they put the new production line in a tent. That is proven by the fact they did not send *any* cars overseas until over a year after production started.

Third, you are trying to separate China from the supply/demand balance by saying G3 is serving Asia so it has nothing to do with America's demand. That was not true then and it is still not true now (not one G3 made car has been delivered to a customer yet). It also ignores demand in Europe.

Tesla has done amazing things by ramping as fast as they did, even if they were slower than their very optimistic ramp goals. It had absolutely *nothing* to do with lack of demand.

 

[StealthP3D]

It may be comforting to tell ourselves that the FUD has no effect, and i'm sure by now WE have built up an immunity to it, but that really isn't the case with the general public.

Case in point: Saturday night, my mother in law's sister frantically texted my wife asking her if I had moved my Tesla out of the garage, since she saw a report on NBC that so many were catching on fire that the government was launching some kind of investigation. (arghhh)

it's a mistake to be comforted or seduced into thinking the FUD has lost its effectiveness. It's a pain, but it is unfortunately a battle that still has to be fought. ignoring it or assuming it will work itself out just results in disinformation becoming accepted truth by the general public.

The discussion was whether the release of a blatant FUD article could move the market significantly (like it has in the past). The answer is the market is getting better "FUD radar".

 

[shootformoon]

I clearly remember there was an article in 2018 from a factory visit concluded something like "there is a clear path to 8k/w m3 production without substantial capex. i.e. without setting up ga5/6. Yet we are not 8k/w even now. And again, GF3 is independent of NA demand. Capex savvy is the results of under-performing demand growth, which is a blessing. But ignoring the FUD induced demand delay is why so many people failed to understand why SP is not $400+.

Tesla added Model 3 capacity via GF3 and incremental improvement to Fremont instead of the original plan of more equipment at Fremont and no/ delayed GF3. They were capital use savvy. Order backlog keeps increasing. Fremont is pumping out more than the original plan for the first round of build was (7k ish vs 5kish).

 

[EVMeister]

MMD did not last long today.

Most people will be too afraid to "like" this comment in case it jinxes things.

 

[mongo]

The discussion was whether the release of a blatant FUD article could move the market significantly (like it has in the past). The answer is the market is getting better "FUD radar".

Wolf!
Wolf!?
Wolf?
wolf.
wolf
wol
wo
w
w
w
whhaaaaaa

 

[Unpilot]

Most people will be too afraid to "like" this comment in case it jinxes things.

I "liked" this one...so we should be safe.

 

[ggr]

Mod: 30 very interesting but VERY off-topic posts moved to:
Hub motor/drivetrain (out of main)
No more here please. --ggr.