Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[TheTalkingMule]

 

[Steve m]

How about FSD cars just having less accidents for better road utilization.

Reduced impact of rubber necking too.

 

[mongo]

I clearly remember there was an article in 2018 from a factory visit concluded something like "there is a clear path to 8k/w m3 production without substantial capex. i.e. without setting up ga5/6. Yet we are not 8k/w even now. And again, GF3 is independent of NA demand. Capex savvy is the results of under-performing demand growth, which is a blessing. But ignoring the FUD induced demand delay is why so many people failed to understand why SP is not $400+.

Fremont was not planing 10k just for the NA market. GF1 is still not at the target rate to supply Fremont.
@KarenRei is not waiting for her car due to FUD...

 

[LoveTSLA]

Most people will be too afraid to "like" this comment in case it jinxes things.

No one can Jinx the move today. Looks we are reaching 325 today.

 

[M3Rider]

View attachment 473327

GF5 or GF6 really needs to be in India with significant support from the Indian Government. This is a humanitarian crisis.

To help put this in perspective, during some of our more severe forest fire smoke events in the Pacific NW we typically don't experience PM2.5 levels exceeding 250-300, and that is miserable. These unfortunate people in Delhi are living at 3-4 times those levels on a daily basis.

The reason I didn't repost this is that most of the smog comes from fields being burned by farmers(if you read those articles).

Doesn't mean car emissions don't exist, but EVs wouldn't fix the fires.

 

[EVMeister]

No one can Jinx the move today. Looks we are reaching 325 today.

But if anybody can, you just did.

 

[shootformoon]

1. Why FUD could effectively move market? Because investors know FUD can hit demand growth, thus the valuation of the company. At this stage, tesla is valued by growth rate, not profits. And I guess wall street guys are looking at number of M3 on NYC street to decide if teslamania is real.

2. It's been a year. If the demand growth rate was as projected in 2018, GA5, and more cell lines already built and running. Slower production increase is the result of the slow demand growth. Remember in 2016 when tsla push forward time table of m3 by almost two years because of 400k reservation? Yes, they act according to market faster than you think.

3. China only makes up what, <20% m3 sales? GF3 will not meet NA demand. You are right, FUD works in NA, euro and china. They all under-performed.

4. You are being contradictory here. yes, tesla is amazing. But if the demand growth was like 2018 expectation, they would've been ramping much faster.

First off, you are responding to a discussion about FUD press releases being able to move the market, not FUD being able to soften demand.

Secondly, you are assuming that Tesla must be demand constrained since they did not hit their original Model 3 production targets. The production targets were not hit because it's extremely difficult to build that many cars from a base of nothing, not because demand was soft. At first, they were battery constrained and then, later, the rest of the car was production constrained. That's why they put the new production line in a tent. That is proven by the fact they did not send *any* cars overseas until over a year after production started.

Third, you are trying to separate China from the supply/demand balance by saying G3 is serving Asia so it has nothing to do with America's demand. That was not true then and it is still not true now (not one G3 made car has been delivered to a customer yet). It also ignores demand in Europe.

Tesla has done amazing things by ramping as fast as they did, even if they were slower than their very optimistic ramp goals. It had absolutely *nothing* to do with lack of demand.

 

[printf42]

I feel funny, no, actually sad that real believers still think FUD is toothless at this moment. Some always use the excuse that tesla is selling every car they produce so there is only production issue. There is no production issue. Let me make this clear. According to the 2018 road map, fremont should be popping out 10k/w M3 now. Why it did not happen? Well, tesla is monitoring the real time demand, which is the order flow. The order flow is increasing, but thanks to FUD, so many potential buyers either postpone or buy another ICE. So the order growth rate is nowhere close to their original exponential expectation. If the order growth is really like back then 400k reservation in couple week kind of demand, GA5 and GA6 already up and running in freemont and I dont know, GF 4 would be under conversion/construction in a midwest factory, not waiting for slow euro red tape. GF3 is serving asia area so it has nothing to do with north america demand.

The only blessing here is tesla is so agile that it adjusted to the new growth curve and aggressively cut capex. We now know the future growth will be more cost effective. But make no mistake. This is not the growth rate we bulls envisioned in 2018, all thanks to FUD.

Ok, the new FUD is FUDs alone will kill the company.
I got my head spinning trying to comprehend the logic...but anyways, I am selling all my shares, I had enough, time to get out.
(Yes, before blockbuster Q4, GF3 online, and pickup reveal, and Y, but, with limit order of 4000/share)
/s

 

[electracity]

I agree, all signs are pointing to a very large backlog which will support a strong Q4 and likely also a strong Q1.

No signs point to a very large backlog. Model 3 demand is probably growing nicely, but cars have been available for immediate delivery almost all year. Fremont has been in balance between demand and supply. An investor thinking critically would first assume that the current 6-8 week lead time in the U.S. is buyers making the decision to purchase Q4 instead of next year.

 

[KarenRei]

Fremont was not planing 10k just for the NA market. GF1 is still not at the target rate to supply Fremont.
@KarenRei is not waiting for her car due to FUD...

Something something... #DemandFireLicenses? #AutopilotServiceProblems? #BatteryPaintHomologation? I forget, what FUD are we supposed to be worried about today? I've lost track

 

[electracity]

Let's not go there again. I agree Elon always has something up his sleeve, but a complete S and X overhaul is not it.

I agree. The ROI for the engineering effort likely is inferior to semi and pickup. The exception may be if the pickup is on a platform that can be shared with the S/X

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Observations:

1. Much fewer trucks at the docks. Looks like the initial wave was to fill all the workstations, and from hereon, it'll just be to restock them as needed.

View attachment 472687

While members were jamming motors into hubs, I noticed that the existing 2 rows of Superchargers on the South end of Phase 1 ...look to be getting 3 additional rows of help!

 

[anthonyj]

Whole market dumped at the same time, not just Tesla

 

[shootformoon]

I respect all your contributions in this forum. But please at least try to understand what I am saying. Who said FUD will kill the company? I am very bullish and happy everything is getting better. But I refuse to believe the self-hypnosis conclusion that FUD has no effect any more. Funny you think accepting the fact that FUD had its way is spreading new FUD.

More like analyzing why we lost 1 year+ in terms of SP increase.

Ok, the new FUD is FUDs alone will kill the company.
I got my head spinning trying to comprehend the logic...but anyways, I am selling all my shares, I had enough, time to get out.
(Yes, before blockbuster Q4, GF3 online, and pickup reveal, and Y, but, with limit order of 4000/share)
/s

 

[ReflexFunds]

No signs point to a very large backlog. Model 3 demand is probably growing nicely, but cars have been available for immediate delivery almost all year. Fremont has been in balance between demand and supply. An investor thinking critically would first assume that the current 6-8 week lead time in the U.S. is buyers making the decision to purchase Q4 instead of next year.

If the 6-8 week US wait is only due to buyers rushing to get the credit, it is still a backlog. Anyway, I think it’s unlikely to be a significant contributor - Q3 net new orders grew over Q2 despite an equivalent US credit step down.
Tesla entered Q2 with a backlog of Raven and SR+ orders, net orders outstripped deliveries in Q2, net orders likely beat deliveries by 13k in Q3, Q4 net orders are currently running ahead of Q3, US wait time is 6-8 weeks, Europe AWD/P is December and Europe SR+ is February, prices are being increased...

If you don’t see evidence of a large backlog I don’t think anything could persuade you.

 

[KarenRei]

While members were jamming motors into hubs, I noticed that the existing 2 rows of Superchargers on the South end of Phase 1 ...look to be getting 3 additional rows of help!

View attachment 473397

View attachment 473396

Yeah, it's been that way for a while

 

[humbaba]

@ReflexFunds Thanks again for the Der Spiegel article. Read again. Very interesting for what it says and does not say.

Agreed. Much appreciated. Interesting that BMW is starting to realize what more forward looking people have been saying for a while:

Another rather mundane truth facing the BMW boss is that there is simply a lack of money for large-scale technological experimentation, because profits simply cannot be allowed to fall any further. Already, BMW management is negotiating with the works council over possible spending cuts, with bonuses likely to shrink and some shifts to shorten as well. BMW also plans to limit is menu of models, with the future of the i3 likewise uncertain.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Something something... #DemandFireLicenses? #AutopilotServiceProblems? #BatteryPaintHomologation? I forget, what FUD are we supposed to be worried about today? I've lost track

The new FUD is that we should be worried about the FUD. We’ve gone full self-referential. I’m going to curl up with my copy of Godel, Escher & Bach.

 

[dww12]

WTF is going on with NIO? I thought they were dead after their earnings report.

Oh. MobileEye

Nio, Intel's Mobileye team up on self-driving electric cars in China

 

[KarenRei]

The new FUD is that we should be worried about the FUD. We’ve gone full self-referential. I’m going to curl up with my copy of Godel, Escher & Bach.

#FudFudProblems? #FudProblemsFud? #FudFudSpammityFud?